（来源：吴说） 作者：支无不言 编辑：Pat 播客《支无不言》主理人，曾经在 VC 做投后，参与 2023 年土耳其 Devconnect 与支付结缘，曾在新型银行负责 2C 产品拉美增长。X：IvyLeanIn ； 即刻： 饭勺放在杯子里；Xlog：ivyheretochill 主播 Hazel Hu 播客《支无不言》主理人，6+ 年财经媒体记者经验，华语公共物品基金 GCC 核心贡献者，2025 年阿根廷 Devconnect 参与者，关注加密的实际落地应用。 X：0xHY2049；即刻：一只不走心的越越 链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eoG7HdqegyFsJ36Zz8uw7w 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息 分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 一、本期介绍 聊了这么多期稳定币的监管和宏大叙事，很多听众可能都会好奇一个最基本的问题：在那些真正需要加密货币的地方，加密支付是如何发挥作用的？阿根 廷，这个常年与恶性通胀搏斗的国家，比索的价值每日都在蒸发，似乎是 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of Argentina's financial order due to economic turmoil, highlighting the collapse of the peso and the rise of alternative financial systems [2][4][5]. Economic Context - Argentina's black market exchange rate has skyrocketed from 1:10 to 1:1400 over the past decade, leading to a significant loss of purchasing power for the local currency [5][8]. - Inflation has surged, with prices of goods in USD increasing by over 50%, despite the peso's devaluation [8][9]. Youth Behavior and Economic Reality - Young people in Argentina are not saving or investing in real estate due to the rapid devaluation of their wages, which have decreased by 37% in real terms from 2017 to 2023 [15][18]. - A significant portion of the population, 52.9%, was living in poverty as of early 2024, with many resorting to "emotional spending" to cope with anxiety [13][17]. Underground Economy - The underground economy is dominated by a network of Chinese supermarkets and Jewish financial institutions, which have become essential for daily transactions and currency exchange [20][24]. - Chinese supermarkets account for over 40% of all supermarkets in Argentina, serving as cash storage points and facilitating tax evasion through cash transactions [24][25]. Financial Networks - Jewish moneylenders operate underground banks, providing a crucial service in a country with strict currency controls and a significant gap between official and black market exchange rates [30][32]. - The collaboration between Chinese supermarkets and Jewish moneylenders creates a closed-loop system that efficiently circulates cash and hard currency [30][31]. Cryptocurrency Usage - Despite a high cryptocurrency ownership rate of 19.8%, the primary motivation for using crypto in Argentina is asset preservation rather than ideological beliefs [34][35]. - Stablecoins like USDT account for 61.8% of crypto trading volume, as they provide a safer alternative for those looking to protect their wealth from inflation [38][39]. Compliance and Economic Strain - The article highlights the plight of compliant citizens who are unable to escape the burdens of high taxes and inflation, leading to a rise in "new poor" who were once part of the middle class [46][49]. - The middle class faces a dilemma where their income is pegged to the official exchange rate while their expenses are dictated by the black market rate, effectively halving their purchasing power [47][48]. Political Landscape - Recent reforms under President Milei aim to reduce government spending and lift currency controls, resulting in immediate fiscal improvements but also significant short-term pain for the population [59][60]. - The historical context of Argentina's economic cycles raises questions about the sustainability of these reforms and the resilience of the underground economy [60][62].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing drought and high temperatures pose a significant threat to autumn grain production, which accounts for approximately 75% of the annual grain output in the province, necessitating urgent and coordinated responses to mitigate the impact on agriculture and ensure food security [1][2]. Group 1: Drought Impact on Agriculture - The drought has severely affected key grain-producing areas, with some regions experiencing over 30 days without effective rainfall, highlighting the critical need for timely irrigation [1][2]. - The province's autumn crops, primarily corn and peanuts, require substantial water during crucial growth stages such as flowering and ear formation [1]. Group 2: Government Response and Measures - Provincial leaders have emphasized the importance of early and thorough irrigation efforts, with directives to maximize water usage to alleviate drought effects [1][2]. - A total of 9.49 billion cubic meters of water has been transferred from reservoirs to support agricultural needs, alongside the establishment of 12,900 emergency wells to address water shortages [2]. Group 3: Importance of Infrastructure and Funding - The drought has underscored the significance of high-standard farmland construction, which has proven effective in mitigating drought impacts due to adequate irrigation facilities [2]. - The government has allocated 20 million yuan in drought relief funding, with an additional 50 million yuan from central authorities and 100 million yuan for "one spray multiple promotions" initiatives to support key areas [2]. Group 4: Community Support and Risk Management - Local organizations are urged to assist vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with limited labor capacity, in managing their agricultural needs during the drought [3]. - Despite forecasts of potential rain, the uneven distribution raises concerns about its effectiveness in alleviating drought conditions, necessitating proactive measures in irrigation and crop management [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed a mixed performance on June 13, with palm oil futures rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, palm oil futures increased by 2.12% to 8178.00 CNY/ton, while canola oil and soybean oil also saw gains of 1.80% and 1.40%, respectively [1] Price Movements - The opening and closing prices for various oilseed futures on June 13 are as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 7720.00 CNY, closed at 7810.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 8032.00 CNY, closed at 8178.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9205.00 CNY, closed at 9339.00 CNY - Peanut: Opened at 8208.00 CNY, closed at 8212.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of June 12, the warehouse receipt data indicated: - Soybean oil futures receipts decreased by 100 contracts to 17552 contracts - Palm oil futures receipts increased by 80 contracts to 540 contracts - Canola oil futures receipts increased by 100 contracts to 1185 contracts - Other oilseed futures such as soybean meal and canola meal saw slight decreases in receipts [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various oilseed products are as follows: - Canola oil: Spot price at 9333.33 CNY, basis at 159 CNY, basis rate at 1.70% - Palm oil: Spot price at 8424 CNY, basis at 416 CNY, basis rate at 4.94% - Soybean oil: Spot price at 7954 CNY, basis at 252 CNY, basis rate at 3.17% - Notably, several contracts, including canola oil and palm oil, exhibited a 'backwardation' phenomenon where spot prices exceeded futures prices [4]