油脂日报 | 2025-12-25 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化+2元，幅度+0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7764.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8980.00元/吨，环比变化+133.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差P05-8.00，环比变化 +48.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8210.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+446.00， 环比变化+28.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9580.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+1.91%，现货基差 OI05+600.00，环比变化+47.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少7.44%， 其中马来半岛减少11.66%，沙巴减少2.12%，沙捞越减少0.75%，婆罗洲减少1.73%。加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价 格505美元/吨， ...

油脂周报：两大月报中性偏多，油脂迎来弱反弹 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. MPOB 12月棕榈油供需数据显示，马棕12月期末库存继续去库至170.9万吨，环比减少6.91%。其中产量减 8.3%至148.7万吨，出口大幅下滑约10%至134万吨。 2. USDA月报显示，美豆新作单产下调至50.7蒲/英亩，超市场预期，产量随之下调至43.66亿蒲，低于市场预期的 44.53亿蒲，也低于12月预计的44.61亿蒲，库消比从此前预计的10.81%降至8.74%。 3.目前马来和印尼均不存在库存压力，产地报价仍较为偏高，预计 1 季度两国合计库存仍持续处于中性偏低水平， 国内棕油进口利润倒挂，库存偏低，或将对棕榈油形成一定支撑，国内豆油库存较为中性短期或易降难增。临近春 节假期，资金避险情绪可能会增加以及宏观转弱，油脂市场缺乏强有力的驱动，油脂短期预计还将会维持震荡，可 能会出现弱反弹。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term fluctuations in Argentina's tariff policy caused significant global oil and fat price volatility. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is beneficial for Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [8][32]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures price of soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 1.99% to 8162 yuan/ton, palm oil P2601 contract fell 0.85% to 9236 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil OI2601 contract rose 0.93% to 10162 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of palm oil, from September 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS data) and 11.3% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month, and palm oil prices fell 0.63%. In terms of soybean oil, Argentina adjusted its tariff policy, first canceling and then re - imposing export taxes on agricultural products, and US soybeans fell 1.17% this week [7]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10400 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. 3.3 Other Data - As of September 19, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 1.90 million tons to 147.40 million tons. On September 24, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 4.90 million tons to 64.60 million tons [16]. - As of September 26, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6718500 tons [20]. - As of September 26, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 6 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 238 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The short - term change in Argentina's tariff policy led to significant global oil and fat price fluctuations. The EU - Indonesia trade agreement is conducive to Indonesian palm oil exports, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improvement in exports have strengthened the palm oil industry chain. The rapeseed oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment before the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is clear. As the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, and the oil and fat market should be treated as having wide - range fluctuations [32].