Core Viewpoint - Take-Two Interactive is poised for growth with the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto VI, which is expected to significantly boost revenue and stock performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Take-Two reported solid financial results for fiscal 2025 and anticipates record revenue for fiscal 2026 [1]. - The stock has increased approximately 21% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite's 10% return [2]. Upcoming Releases - The highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is set to release on May 26, 2026, and is projected to drive substantial revenue growth in fiscal year 2027 [2]. - The last installment of the series sold 215 million copies over 12 years, indicating a strong established player base [4]. Business Strategy - Take-Two is diversifying its portfolio beyond reliance on GTA by increasing research and development spending and headcount for future releases [5]. - A significant portion of revenue comes from recurrent consumer spending, which accounted for 77% of bookings in the most recent quarter [6]. Profitability and Margins - Despite recent pressures on margins and free cash flow due to R&D and acquisitions, recurrent consumer spending has improved profitability over the last decade [7]. - The release of GTA VI and other titles is expected to enhance margins and free cash flow in the long term [7]. Market Position - Take-Two's stock is considered fairly valued, trading at a forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of 7.15x, which is competitive compared to peers [9]. - Analysts project earnings growth at an annualized rate of 39% through 2029, with free cash flow expected to reach $2.9 billion [12]. Future Outlook - The integration of artificial intelligence in game development is anticipated to improve efficiency and profitability for Take-Two over the next decade [11]. - The stock is positioned to potentially outperform the market due to its growth catalysts and reasonable pricing [8][12].

Company Overview - Take-Two Interactive is a leading multi-platform developer, publisher, and marketer of interactive entertainment[7] - The company's strategy is to create hit entertainment experiences delivered on every platform relevant to its audience[9] - The company has significantly expanded its development staff headcount to support its pipeline[24] - As of March 31, 2025, the company's development studio staff headcount is 10,099[26] Market Opportunity - The global video game market is projected to reach $210 billion in 2025[29] - The interactive entertainment market is estimated to reach $95 billion in 2025[31] - There were nearly 136 billion new app downloads in 2024[31] Key Franchises - The Grand Theft Auto franchise has sold-in nearly 450 million units[43] - Grand Theft Auto V has sold-in over 215 million units to date[43] - The Red Dead Redemption series has sold-in over 100 million units worldwide[47] - The NBA 2K franchise has sold-in over 160 million units worldwide[58] Financial Performance - Net bookings are diversified across various platforms, with mobile accounting for 51%, console for 38%, and PC and other for 11% of FY2025 net bookings[128] - FY2025 net bookings is $5,648 million[128]

Core Insights - TakeTwo Interactive Software (TTWO) reported a GAAP net loss of $21.08 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which is wider than the loss of $17.02 in the same quarter last year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was $1.08 per share [1] - GAAP net revenues increased by 13.1% year over year to $1.58 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 billion [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the United States rose by 9.8% year over year to $946.1 million, accounting for 59.8% of total GAAP net revenues. International revenues increased by 18.3% year over year to $636.4 million [2] - Game revenues, which represent 93.1% of total revenues, grew by 16.9% year over year to $1.47 billion, while advertising revenues, making up 6.9% of total revenues, fell by 21.7% year over year to $108.7 million [2] Bookings Performance - Total bookings improved by 17.3% year over year to $1.58 billion, with U.S. bookings increasing by 17.4% to $961.1 million, representing 60.8% of total bookings. International bookings rose by 17.1% to $620.4 million [3] - Recurrent consumer spending increased by 14% for the period, accounting for 77% of net bookings [4] Distribution Channels - Digital online revenues grew by 14.3% year over year to $1.53 billion, making up 96.4% of GAAP net revenues. Conversely, physical retail and other revenues declined by 11.4% to $56.9 million, representing 3.6% of total revenues [4] Platform Revenue Insights - Revenues from mobile, console, and PC/other accounted for 47.2%, 37.4%, and 15.4% of GAAP net revenues, respectively. Mobile revenues increased by 4.6% to $747.4 million, console revenues rose by 4% to $591.2 million, and PC/other revenues surged by 110.7% to $243.6 million [6] Gaming Performance Highlights - NBA 2K25 achieved near-record performance, selling nearly 10 million units, a 7% increase compared to NBA 2K24 [8] - The Grand Theft Auto series exceeded expectations, with GTA V selling over 215 million units, and Red Dead Redemption 2 showing a 23% year-over-year growth in net bookings [10] Operating Details - GAAP gross profit surged by 71.2% year over year to $803.3 million, with gross margin expanding to 50.8% from 33.5% in the previous year [13] - Operating expenses rose by 43.9% year over year to $4.58 billion, with a notable operating loss of $3.78 billion compared to a loss of $2.71 billion in the prior year [14] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, TakeTwo had $1.47 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $1.21 billion as of December 31, 2024. The company had a total debt of $2.51 billion [15] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, TakeTwo expects GAAP net revenues between $1.35 billion and $1.40 billion, with anticipated operating expenses between $908 million and $918 million. The expected loss per share is projected to be between 78 cents and 65 cents [16] - For fiscal 2026, the company forecasts GAAP net revenues between $5.95 billion and $6.05 billion, with net bookings expected in the range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion [18]

Core Viewpoint - TakeTwo Interactive Software (TTWO) is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 15, with expectations of GAAP net revenues between $1.52 billion and $1.62 billion, and a GAAP net loss per share ranging from 20 cents to earnings per share of 13 cents [1] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTWO's fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is $1.55 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.73% [1] - The consensus for earnings is currently at $1.08 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year growth of 248.39% [2] Performance Drivers - NBA 2K is anticipated to significantly contribute to results, with a projected high-teens percentage increase in recurrent consumer spending for the franchise [3] - Other titles like Grand Theft Auto V and GTA Online are expected to continue contributing, although GTA Online may see declines [3] - New launches such as Sid Meier's Civilization VII, PGA Tour 2K25, and WWE 2K25 are expected to support top-line growth, with Civilization VII already setting a franchise record for preorders [4] Mobile Segment Challenges - Mobile bookings are projected to face challenges, with only low single-digit growth expected for the fiscal year, influenced by underperformance in titles like Empires & Puzzles [5] Cost Management - GAAP operating expenses for the fiscal fourth quarter are projected between $900 million and $920 million, with a 2% decline year over year due to normalized marketing and cost-saving initiatives [6] Earnings Outlook - TTWO currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that the odds of an earnings beat are not favorable at this time [7]