Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis to Schwab Center for Financial Research.Okay, so we're seeing stocks sliding for a fourth session today. It looks like AI continues to away weigh on the minds of investors. We've had some cautionary headlines, you could say, from the likes of Google CEO Pitch Eye around irrationality, JP Morgan warning of AI valuations and perhaps a correction there.We've had these downgr ...

uh for the the sector stock market in general. Daniel Flax, Newberger, Burman, a senior research uh analyst. Um how are you Dan.Good to see you. >> Good to see you too, Joe. Good morning.>> You you have a I haven't asked you a question yet. Relax. Um do do you um do you think that um the the multiple that we saw in the trailing 12 months will be significantly higher than the next 12 months.What what what do you have the PE for the for the trailing uh number for Nvidia and what do you have forward PE. Where ...

Core Insights - Nvidia is expected to provide positive indicators regarding AI spending in its upcoming earnings report, reflecting strong demand and growth in the AI sector [2][3][12] - The company has seen significant growth in sales tied to AI products, with expectations of continued upward momentum in Q3 and Q4 [3][12] - Nvidia's stock valuation appears reasonable compared to peers, trading at about 28 times earnings, which is not considered expensive [4][5] Financial Performance - Nvidia is projected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25, representing a 54% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $55.1 billion, up 57% [16][17] - The growth rate is expected to decelerate compared to previous quarters, reflecting the law of large numbers as the company matures in the AI market [18][20] - The company has not modeled any revenue from China, which remains an outstanding issue, but any future sales from this market would be considered a bonus [20][21] Market Dynamics - Approximately 50% of Nvidia's revenue comes from hyperscalers, with major players like Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft continuing to invest heavily in AI infrastructure [22] - Increased competition is emerging as companies like AMD develop their own solutions, although Nvidia still holds a dominant market share of around 90% [24][25] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI data centers is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential for the industry [15]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around Nvidia's challenges in selling products in China due to U.S. regulations and the implications of antitrust accusations, highlighting the complex dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations and the semiconductor industry [1][2][5][8]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is currently unable to sell products in China, which is a significant market for them, due to restrictions imposed by the U.S. government [1][2][5]. - There is a strong demand for Nvidia's products in China, indicating potential upside if sales restrictions are lifted [5][13]. - The company is in a difficult position, caught between U.S. regulations and the desire to penetrate the Chinese market [2][4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Strategic Moves - The ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China are seen as a strategic game, with Nvidia's situation being a piece on the chessboard of international relations [3][4]. - China is actively trying to leverage its position in trade discussions, including launching an anti-dumping investigation in the analog space [6][8]. - The relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by national security concerns, which complicates the business environment for companies like Nvidia [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Nvidia - Upcoming earnings reports and product launches are critical for Nvidia, with particular attention on their Blackwell Ultra and GB300 parts [12][13]. - The company is expected to provide more insights into its next-generation product, Reuben, during the GTC event in March next year [14]. - Any easing of restrictions on doing business in China would be considered a positive development for Nvidia's financial outlook [13].