All right, Tesla deliveries are due out shortly. Joining us now with more on what's ahead for the stock. Craig Irwin, Roth Capital, senior research analyst and Jed Dorschimer, William Blair Group, head of energy uh and power.I think this is supposed to be a debate, but Craig, you're our bull, but you got a you got a price target of $395. You're off by $70 already. You're the bull.You know what. It's been one heck of a run this last couple months, and uh you know, there's a lot of room for it to run. Okay.Yo ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock is experiencing significant optimism, with a price target increase to $600 from $500, indicating a potential upside of over 40% from the current average price of approximately $347 per share [1][2]. Price Target and Market Performance - The new price target of $600 is the highest on Wall Street and is 23% above Tesla's all-time high of $488 reached in December 2024 [3]. - Tesla's stock has rallied more than 30% in September, coinciding with expectations of strong Q3 vehicle deliveries, potentially reaching 500,000 units, driven by the expiration of a $7,500 EV credit [5][6]. Autonomous Driving and AI Potential - The optimism is largely attributed to Tesla's advancements in AI and autonomous driving, with estimates suggesting the AI autonomous opportunity could be worth at least $1 trillion for Tesla alone [4]. - Dan Ives predicts that Tesla will capture around 70% of the global autonomous vehicle market within the next decade, with full self-driving features expected to penetrate more than 50% of the market [4]. Company Strategy and Financial Health - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is seen as pivotal in driving the company into its next growth phase, with plans to roll out robo-taxis in 30 cities within the next year [3]. - Despite some deceleration in sales growth, Tesla's core automotive business remains profitable, allowing it to fund other innovative projects without needing external financing [11][12]. Market Perception and Investment Sentiment - The debate continues on whether Tesla should be viewed primarily as a car company or an AI and autonomy company, with differing opinions among analysts [7][9]. - Historical data suggests that betting against Tesla has not been profitable, indicating strong investor sentiment towards the company's future prospects [8].

Robin, you've just been unequivocal about the future of the company and the inclusion of those operational milestones on Optimus and Robo Taxi, but when the proxy hit, many many shareholders went straight to the bullet point on the 20 million vehicle deliveries. How much was that informed by a the board wanting Elon Musk to focus on the breadandbut business in the near term, but also did you have some data that sales specifically were being impacted by Musk's political activity. Yeah, I I would say that uh ...

Competitive Landscape - Autonomous technology maturation positions Tesla as a direct competitor to Uber in the robo-taxi market [1] - Tesla's vertically integrated manufacturing could enable lower cost per mile, potentially undercutting Uber's pricing [2] Market Opportunity - Robo-taxi represents a significantly larger opportunity than ride-hailing [2] - Ride-hailing currently accounts for only 3% of US vehicle miles traveled [2] - Robo-taxi market could reach a $10 trillion addressable opportunity at scale [2] Company Focus - The company is closely monitoring Tesla's robo-taxi rollout since June [3] - The company is tracking the scale of Tesla's robo-taxi rollout in the coming months [3]

Fan Base & Community - The company has a large and enthusiastic fan base that attends events and expresses strong support for Elon Musk and the company's products [1] - Fans show their support through merchandise like t-shirts referencing past product launches and slogans like "don't bet against Elon" [1] - Some fans have invested significant portions of their life savings in the company [4] Product Excitement & Future Vision - The company's supporters are particularly excited about the potential of robo taxis and Optimus [2] - The Cyber Cab, a car without a steering wheel, was showcased at the event [2][3] - A 3D printed Cybertruck was available for children to color, indicating efforts to engage younger audiences [2] Investor & Customer Overlap - There is a significant overlap between Tesla car owners and investors in the company, with some becoming investors after buying a car and vice versa [4]

Near-Term Outlook - Tesla faces potential near-term weakness due to the transition period involving the loss of US incentives and focus on upscaling autonomous ventures [1] - The company anticipates a few potentially rough quarters but refrains from making definitive predictions [1] Autonomous and AI Focus - The industry views Tesla as entering a golden age driven by AI, autonomous technology, and robotics [3] - The future for Tesla is about robo taxis and physical AI, with deliveries potentially rebounding in the second half of the year [3][5] - The autonomous valuation alone is estimated to be a trillion dollars [6] - Tesla is expected to own the autonomous market and Optimus robotics will be a significant part of the company's story [11] - By November, Tesla is expected to take a big stake in XAI, positioning it as a key player in physical AI [12] Investor Perspective - Some investors might sell the stock due to concerns about the next one to two quarters [7] - Despite near-term challenges, the industry believes the current period represents a golden buying opportunity, potentially leading to a $2 trillion market cap [8] Governance and Leadership - Elon Musk remains the biggest asset for Tesla, driving the AI future [14] - The board needs to step up in terms of giving Musk 25% voting rights, especially concerning AI and XAI [16] - The board needs to have more control and accountability, particularly regarding political involvement [17]

are not very compelling. >> Elon Musk, on the Tesla earnings call last night, warning shareholders about a potential rough patch ahead. Shares getting hit this morning down better than 8%.Let's bring in Canaccord Genuity Jorge Enriquez raises his target from 303 up to 333. And he maintains his by George. It's great to have you. You write it pretty plainly.We may have just seen the bottom in growth trends with positive acceleration on the way. What makes you think so. >> Well, the good thing about bad comps ...

Tesla's Business Perspective - William Blair suggests that viewing Tesla solely as an auto company would lead to a bearish outlook, emphasizing the importance of considering other business segments [3] - The firm cut its core auto business numbers by approximately 12%, citing brand weakness in Europe and competition in China [4] - The energy business is performing well, and the firm has provided estimates for the robo taxi service in Austin [4] Robo Taxi Valuation and Competitive Advantage - The firm estimates the robo taxi business to be worth roughly $300 per share by 2040, based on aggressive pricing schemes and greater unit volume [7] - Tesla's tech stack is estimated to have one-tenth the cost compared to Google's Waymo, giving it a competitive advantage in pricing and market share acquisition in the autonomous vehicle rollout [7] - The firm acknowledges that these are early days and assumptions are involved, but they are attempting to establish a framework for valuation [8] Overall Valuation - The auto business is valued around $30 to $40 per share, and the energy business is valued similarly [8] - The firm arrives at a fair value in the high $300s, excluding the humanoid robot [8]

AI发展趋势 - AI发展迅速，远超预期 [1][3][41] - AI用户增长速度超过以往任何消费产品，但需区分有意使用和无意接触AI的用户 [8][9] - AI在图像和视频领域的应用日益普及 [18] - 中国在AI领域发展迅速，与美国积极竞争 [33] AI技术与应用 - AI性能日益逼真，能够模拟人类行为，图灵测试已不再适用 [14] - 反向图灵测试可能成为现实，AI可用于评估人类知识水平 [15][16] - AI可用于定制化评估，尤其是在教育领域 [18] - Gemini上的查询长度是Google搜索的两到三倍，表明用户对AI聊天机器人的使用方式不同 [23] AI成本与收益 - AI所需的能源成本大幅下降，自2014年以来，每个LLM token的能源需求降低了105,000倍 [28] - 尽管资本支出巨大，但AI的货币化方式正在发生变化，从前期投入大量资金进行训练，转变为训练加推理，更接近运营支出 [30][32] - 市场对AI产品的可接受价格正在上涨，例如每月200美元到2000美元 [32][33] 自动驾驶 - 特斯拉计划推出Robotaxi [34] - Waymo的自动驾驶服务即使在小范围内运营，其增长趋势也可能在未来12个月内超过Uber [34] - 自动驾驶的普及将取决于价格、可用性和用户体验 [36]