Joining us right now is Dan Lee Barkley's senior US uh autos and mobility analyst. Good morning to you. So much to to think about from that call from sort of the pivot.Uh let's just start there. What what did you think of what you heard. What do you think of this pivot.>> Yeah, thank you. Thank you Andrew and Becky for for having me. Look, um, this pivot has been in in the works and so it's not really much of a of a surprise given everything that's played out over the last year and a half, but we did think ...

Tesla's fourth quarter real, they're just crossing the wire. Let's get those numbers. Tesla Q4 adjusted EPS0. It looks like consensus was closer to 45 cents. So, we got a beat there. Uh Q4 revenue clocking in at 24.90% billion. Estimate was 25.11% billion. Uh Q4 gross margins, there it is, 20.1%, the estimate was 17.1%. Q4 free cash flow 1.42% billion. Was closer to 1.59% billion. Let's get your take on this, Adam, because this is another one you own and the stock's popping about 4%. >> Love it. As it shoul ...

Welcome to the brainstorm episode 117. Today we're talking Claudebot and OpenAI monetization and then maybe we'll touch on some Tesla robo taxis that are out there. But Claudebot blowing up on X. Uh tons of memes now. Frank, did you buy a Mac Mini? Set it up for us. Not Claudebot. Don't set up Quadbot for us. Set up the top. So this is this is Claudebot with CL A WD not a UD. So it's not related to anthropic though it does have implications for anthropic. Um it's an open source project created by Peter Stei ...

Safety Concerns & Regulatory Impact - National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 收到了关于 Tesla 安全问题的投诉，引发了对 Tesla 车辆安全标准的关注 [1][2] - 尽管存在安全问题，但 Tesla 车辆在 Nitsa 和 Euro NCAP 的安全评级中一直表现出色 [2] - SpaceX 的碎片问题可能影响监管机构对 Tesla 机器人出租车业务安全性的看法 [10][11] Robo Taxi & Autonomous Driving - 行业对机器人出租车市场前景持乐观态度，预计其安全性将超过人类驾驶 [4][5] - Tesla 希望在奥斯汀推出无人驾驶机器人出租车服务，并计划在全国范围内扩展 [3] - 行业认为不应只关注当下的事故或安全问题，而应关注机器人出租车的整体安全状况，因为从长远来看，它们将比人类驾驶更安全 [13] Sales & Market Dynamics - Elon Musk 的政治立场可能在 2025 年第一、二季度对 Tesla 的销量产生影响 [7][8] - 美国电动汽车补贴的结束对销量产生了一定影响，预计第四季度销量将从 40 多万辆降至 42.7 万辆，但预计 2026 年和 2027 年销量将反弹 [8][9] - 美国电动汽车市场竞争减少，对 Tesla 和 Rivian 等垂直整合公司有利 [9]

Tesla Shareholder Meeting & Executive Compensation - Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package with over 75% support among voting shares [1][2] - The approved pay package requires Musk to achieve high-end milestones, including producing 20 million cars and developing robots [3] - Shareholders approved Tesla's investment in XAI, but the board will re-evaluate the decision due to a number of abstaining votes [4][6] Tesla's Future Strategy & Robotics - Elon Musk believes Tesla's robotics initiatives, particularly the Optimus robot, will be bigger than the company's car business [8] - Tesla plans to scale up Optimus assembly at both Fremont and Giga Austin [3] - The production target for the Cybercab is set for April 2026 [3] - Ark Invest believes the humanoid robot opportunity is an order of magnitude larger than robo taxi and supports continued investment in this area [11] Robo Taxi & Autonomous Driving - Tesla is expected to activate a fleet of robo taxis in the US, potentially creating a natural monopoly with inexpensive point-to-point mobility [14] - Tesla's robo taxi service is projected to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in cash flow [14] - Tesla's scale advantage, producing 2,000 vehicles per day from its Austin factory, will give it an edge over competitors like Waymo [18] Cryptocurrency & Investment Strategy - Arc Invest has lightened its Bitcoin position due to the impact of stablecoins on the market [24] - Stablecoins offer an alternative to Bitcoin for individuals in emerging markets seeking protection against unstable currencies [26] - Arc Invest maintains a five-year outlook on Bitcoin, viewing it as a better mechanism for storing and transmitting value [29][30]

Core Points - Tesla is holding its annual meeting with a focus on the shareholder vote regarding Elon Musk's potentially trillion-dollar pay package, which is contingent on achieving specific performance metrics [1] - The pay package is structured in tranches, requiring Musk to meet targets such as an $8.5 trillion market cap, delivering 20 million Teslas, deploying a million robo-taxis, and a million humanoid robots over the next 10 years [1] - Musk has expressed a desire for greater influence over the development of humanoid robots, indicating he would not feel comfortable proceeding without having a say in their future [1] - Support for the pay package comes from Musk, Arc Invest, and Ron Baron, while opposition includes several pension funds and advisory firms like ISS and Glass Lewis, citing the package as excessive [1] - Other votes at the meeting include establishing political neutrality for Tesla and a potential investment in X AI, which Musk views as crucial for the company's future growth [1][2] - X AI was last valued at around $200 billion, highlighting its significance in Tesla's strategic direction towards AI, robotics, and autonomy rather than just electric vehicles [2][3]

Core Insights - Uber's shares are declining due to a lower than expected EBITDA outlook, increasing pressure to demonstrate the potential of its driverless strategy [1][2] Company Developments - Uber's autonomous vehicle (AV) offerings are currently operational in four cities, with plans to expand to ten by the end of next year [2] - The cities of Austin and Atlanta, powered by Whimo, are experiencing growth rates twice as fast as other U.S. markets, with Whimo's vehicles outperforming 99% of human drivers [3] - Uber claims that its driverless options are not cannibalizing the business of human drivers, who are earning more than the national average [3] Partnerships and Collaborations - Uber has not signed a new deal with Whimo recently, leading the company to diversify its partnerships beyond a single autonomy partner [4] - Collaborations with Lucid and Nuro are underway to roll out robo taxis, and a partnership with BYU aims to launch driverless rides in Asia and the Middle East [4][5] - BYU is now matching Whimo in weekly robo taxi volume, indicating rapid growth in the global market [5] Technological Advancements - Uber is piloting fully autonomous services in the UK in collaboration with AI startup Wave [6] - The company aims to build its own fleet of 100,000 Nvidia-powered AVs, focusing on making self-driving cars cost-effective at scale [6]

Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 adjusted EPS is reported at $0.50, below the consensus estimate of $0.54, while Q3 revenue is $28.10 billion, exceeding the expected $26.36 billion [1][2] - Q3 gross margins are reported at 18%, significantly higher than the estimated 7.2% [2] - Free cash flow for Q3 is reported at $3.99 billion, beating the estimate of $1.25 billion [2] Financial Performance - Q3 adjusted EPS is $0.50, compared to a consensus of $0.54 [1] - Q3 revenue stands at $28.10 billion, surpassing the expected $26.36 billion [1] - Q3 gross margins are reported at 18%, exceeding the estimate of 7.2% [2] - Free cash flow for Q3 is $3.99 billion, significantly above the estimate of $1.25 billion [2] Market Outlook - Concerns are raised about EV demand in the US post EV tax credit expiration, with expectations of declining deliveries in Q4 and throughout 2026 [7][8] - Analysts predict a potential decline in total global deliveries for Tesla due to the expiration of the US tax credit [7] - The market may see a pull forward in demand as buyers took advantage of the tax credit in Q3 [8] Product Strategy - Tesla has introduced lower-priced models under $40,000, which may attract buyers but still face competition from traditional vehicles priced lower [9][10] - The Model Y's pricing compared to competitors like Honda CRV and Toyota RAV4 indicates a higher cost for consumers [11][12] Future Growth and AI Vision - Analysts express optimism about Tesla's AI and robotics potential, with a belief that the autonomous driving and robotics market could significantly enhance Tesla's valuation [14][15] - The company is expected to pivot from car sales to software and robotics in the long term [15] - Regulatory uncertainties and competition in the autonomous driving space may impact Tesla's market leadership [16][17] Upcoming Events - A shareholder meeting is scheduled for November 6, where approval of Elon Musk's potential $1 trillion pay package is anticipated [23][24] - The pay package is tied to Tesla's market cap growth and successful rollout of robo taxis and full self-driving software [24]

Core Insights - Tesla is expected to report a profit of 55 cents per share, with the market anticipating no significant changes in share price unless results deviate greatly from expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The focus will be on auto gross margins, particularly whether improvements seen in Q2 continue into Q3 [2] - Full-year deliveries are projected to be around 1.6 million, with notable improvements in China and a surge in the US due to the end of the EV tax credit [5] Group 2: Autonomous Vehicle Development - Elon Musk is expected to provide updates on the growth of robo taxis, specifically when fully autonomous vehicles will be operational [3] - Currently, robo taxis are being tested in Austin and San Francisco but are not fully autonomous, as a human safety driver is present [4] Group 3: AI and Robotics - There is anticipation for updates on AI and humanoid robot development, with Musk being optimistic about advancements in these areas during the analyst call [3][6]

Core Insights - Tesla is teasing a potential product launch, with expectations around new models and features being discussed [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Launch Expectations - Possible product announcements include the Roadster, semi-production expansion, and robo-taxi developments [2][3] - There is speculation about a lower-priced model, potentially reducing the price of Model 3 or Model Y to around $35,000 to $40,000 to increase demand [3][6] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Tesla holds a 43% market share in EV deliveries in the United States, leading the market [4] - The upcoming Q3 results announcement on the 22nd by Elon Musk is anticipated as a significant catalyst for the company [5]