Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term outlook: Hold off on new positions and maintain existing long positions in crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil futures prices declined on August 4, 2025. WTI9 crude oil futures fell by $1.93 per barrel (2.79%) to $67.33 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures dropped by $2.03 per barrel (2.83%) to $69.67 per barrel, and SC2509 crude oil futures decreased by 15.10 yuan per barrel (2.86%) to 513.00 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply and Production - Considering compensation measures, OPEC+ actual oil production may increase by 528,000 barrels per day in September. Eight OPEC+ member countries will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and will hold their next meeting on September 7 [2] - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending August 1 was 410, down from 415 in the previous week [2] Geopolitical and Trade - Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Despite US sanctions and warnings from Trump, Indian refineries continue to buy Russian oil. If the global market stops receiving Russia's daily supply of 9.5 million barrels of oil, oil prices could rise to $135 - $140 per barrel [2] - After the US imposed new sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally destined for Indian refineries have diverted to other destinations. Trump has urged countries to stop buying Russian oil and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that purchase Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [2] Economic Data - The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than the previous value of 147,000 and the expected 110,000 [2] - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in July was 2%, in line with the previous value and higher than the expected 1.90% [2] Market Dynamics - As Middle East oil prices rise, Asia is increasing imports of US WTI crude oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The second round of China-US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the A-share market declined and adjusted after the Politburo meeting, with consumption rising against the trend. There was a short - term expectation gap in the market [2] - The Politburo meeting led to a short - term release of negative factors, causing the bond futures to rise. The 7 - month PMI index should be monitored [2] - US macro - policies and other negative factors may put pressure on the gold price, and it can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. The silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan) [2] - The market expectation of the container shipping index (European line) has cooled, leading to a price decline [2] - The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and the coking plants have the expectation of further price increases [2] - The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the aluminum market [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply, and the oil price is in a strong - side shock [2] - The urea market is restricted by export difficulties and high inventory, and the PX market is affected by the downstream of the industrial chain [2] - The PTA market has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials, and the short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand expectation [2] - The bottle - chip market is following the cost fluctuation, and the ethylene glycol market's supply - demand situation has turned loose [2] - The soybean meal market is suppressed by the expected high yield of US soybeans, and the pig market's previous policy benefits have been digested [2] - The corn market is in a state of long - short entanglement, and the palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - The sugar market has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and the cotton market has a tight old - crop inventory and a weak downstream market [2] - The egg market is seasonally strong in the short - term but bearish in the long - term, and the apple market is trading lightly [2] - The red - date market has a stable and firm spot price but is bearish in the long - term, and the soda - ash market has repeated price fluctuations [2] - The glass market has a weakening spot sales and repeated price fluctuations, and the rubber market has a high - level shock [2] - The industrial silicon market's futures price fluctuates downward with the market, and the polysilicon market has multiple contracts reaching the daily limit [2] - The lithium carbonate market has a wide - range shock due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined and adjusted. It is recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures, replace it with a small amount of short positions in the far - month contract 6300 strike price MO put options, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish attitude [2] - **Treasury Bond**: After the Politburo meeting, short - term negative factors were released, and the bond futures rose. It is recommended to try to go long in the short - term and pay attention to the 7 - month PMI index [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is under pressure and can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. Silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan), and if it breaks, it may fall to $36 (8700 yuan) [2] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore follows the steel price. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The exchange's position - limit intervention has caused large fluctuations in futures. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low levels. The mainstream coking plants have the fifth - round price increase, and it is recommended to go long on coke at low levels [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation. The reference price range for the main contract is 77000 - 79000, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The aluminum price has a narrow - range shock, and the reference price ranges for the main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, and zinc are given. The tin price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way, with the resistance levels of WTI, Brent, and SC given [2] - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventory restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way within the range of 1700 - 1800 [2] - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is tight, but the downstream of the industrial chain affects the trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2] - **PTA**: It has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to be bearish above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the processing margin at a low level [2] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100 [2] - **Bottle - chip**: It maintains production cuts, and the processing margin's upward space depends on demand. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Multiple domestic and foreign plants have restarted, and the supply - demand situation has turned loose. It is recommended to wait and see on the EG09 single - side and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various other chemicals such as caustic soda, PVC, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The soybean meal market is affected by the expected high yield of US soybeans. The pig market is bearish. The corn market is in a long - short entanglement. The palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - **Others**: For other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For special commodities such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] - **New Energy Commodities**: For new - energy commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Hold long positions in crude oil, and prices may challenge $80 per barrel again [1] Core View - The report provides information on international crude oil futures prices, API inventory data, and various industry news, suggesting a potential upward trend in crude oil prices [1][4] Detailed Summary International Crude Oil - WTI September crude oil futures rose $2.50 per barrel, or 3.75%, to $69.21 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $2.47 per barrel, or 3.52%, to $72.51 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures rose 12.80 yuan per barrel, or 2.49%, to 527.50 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member countries to fully comply with quotas [2] - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3%, the US growth forecast to 1.9%, and the China growth forecast to 4.8% [3] - Trump suggested the EU buy $1 trillion of US energy during his term, and the EU agreed to buy $750 billion [4] - US API crude inventories for the week ending July 25 were 153.9 million barrels (previous -57.7 million barrels, expected -250 million barrels); API Cushing crude inventories were 46.5 million barrels (previous 31.4 million barrels); API gasoline inventories were -173.9 million barrels (previous -122.8 million barrels, expected -114.7 million barrels); API refined oil inventories were 418.9 million barrels (previous 348 million barrels, expected -90.6 million barrels) [4] - Trump said he was not worried about oil if sanctions were imposed on Russia [4] - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Trump accepted that natural resources would not face tariffs [4] - Kuwait's oil minister was optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market [4] - Traders expected OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery [4] - The EU's sanctions on India's Nayara Energy led to a reduction in its crude oil production [4] - On July 29, China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened, and due to the small price adjustment amount, gasoline and diesel prices remained unchanged [4] - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures, and the two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, including WTI9, Brent 9 - month, and SC2509. It also covers various geopolitical events, OPEC - related news, and US - related policies that may impact the crude oil market. The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a neutral stance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $0.87 per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent 9 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.74 per barrel, a 1.07% decline, at $68.44 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.70 yuan per barrel, a 1.32% decline, at 501.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said Israel may target Iran's Supreme Leader in the future [1]. - At least 8 people were killed in an attack in southeastern Iran. There was also a terrorist attack on a judicial building in Zahedan, Iran, with unclear casualty figures [1]. - Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and the Gaza situation with Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi, and Qatar will continue diplomatic efforts [1]. OPEC - Related News - OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels, only for monitoring compliance and reviewing the market [1]. - An OPEC + senior official said that only an eight - country group can decide when to exit voluntary production cuts and the September production policy [1]. Speculative Positions - Last week, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures on the ICE decreased by 11,352 contracts to 227,393 contracts, while the speculative net long positions in gasoline futures increased by 8,012 contracts to 98,180 contracts [1]. US - Related Policies - The US to July 25 week's total number of oil drilling rigs decreased from the previous value of 422 to 415 [1]. - US President Trump is considering secondary sanctions against Russia [1]. - The US will not extend the August 1 tariff - increase deadline, and the goal of Trump's negotiation with the EU is to open the EU market for US exports [1][2].