Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.87, or 4.26%, to $94.77 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May rose $6.27, or 6.76%, to $98.96 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 2.50 yuan per barrel, or 0.33%, to 749.10 yuan per barrel [1] - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and paying attention to the resumption of flights Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $11.67 month-on-month. Core driver is the significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - Arab Light: Spread closed, down $14.73 month-on-month. Due to the dual deterioration of refining value and crude oil price disadvantage, and the soaring structure cost [2] - Nemba: Spread closed, down $0.42 month-on-month. High freight is the main drag despite the significant crude oil price advantage [2] - Agbami: Spread closed, down $1.65 month-on-month. The advantage of crude oil price is offset by high freight and structure cost [2] - Forties: Spread closed, down $1.75 month-on-month. Core drag is the crude oil price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH and high freight [2] - Arab Heavy: Spread closed, down $3.95 month-on-month. Mainly due to the significant increase in structure cost, eroding the arbitrage space [2] - Vasconia: Spread open, up $20.14 month-on-month. Key driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price, providing a huge price advantage [2] - Castilla: Spread open, up $16.13 month-on-month. Core driver is the extremely deep discount of crude oil price [2] - Napo: Spread open, up $14.01 month-on-month. Decisive factor is the huge discount of crude oil price [2] - Maya: Spread open, up $9.61 month-on-month. Benefit from the significant crude oil price discount, offsetting the negative impact of refining value [4] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread closed, up $1.08 month-on-month. The crude oil price changes from disadvantage to significant advantage relative to Bonny Light, but is partially offset by the increase in structure cost [5] - Arab Extra Light: Spread closed, down $13.94 month-on-month, turning deeply negative. Core drag is the sharp expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage [5] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $1.17 month-on-month. Although the refining value turns negative, the crude oil price turns into an advantage to support the arbitrage window [5] - Cabinda: Spread closed, down $4.6 month-on-month. The deep negative refining value is the decisive factor for the closure of the arbitrage window [5] - Urals: Spread open, up $2.37 month-on-month, with a huge arbitrage space. Core driver is the huge advantage of its crude oil price relative to Bonny Light [5] 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread closed, down $4.09 month-on-month, turning negative. Mainly because the crude oil price advantage relative to Forties weakens significantly and the structure cost soars [7] - Eagle Ford: Spread closed, down $7.12 month-on-month, turning negative. Similar reasons to WTI MEH, the weakening of price advantage and high structure cost are the main causes [7] - Azeri Light: Spread open, up $1.25 month-on-month. Strong refining value and significant price advantage jointly drive the arbitrage space [7] - Saharan Blend: Spread open, up $5.79 month-on-month. Abnormally strong refining value and significant price advantage are the core driving forces [7] - Bonny Light: Spread open, down $2.33 month-on-month. The extremely high refining value is largely offset by the significant price disadvantage and high structure cost [7] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread closed, up $0.83 month-on-month (negative value decreases). Mainly because the relative price advantage of benchmark oil Urals slightly narrows [8] - Azeri Light: Spread closed, down $0.61 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals still suppresses alternative oil types [8] - Bonny Light: Spread closed, down $8.34 month-on-month. The price advantage of Urals, high freight and soaring structure cost lead to deterioration [8] - Ekofisk: Spread closed, down $7.28 month-on-month. The strength of Urals is the systematic factor [8] 5. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread open. The current spread data of Duri is abnormal and cannot be analyzed month-on-month [9] - Basrah Heavy: Spread closed, down $5.13 month-on-month. The significantly negative refining value is the main drag [9] - Napo: Spread open, up $10.52 month-on-month, maintaining a high level. Core driving force is the huge discount of its crude oil price relative to Dubai [9] - Maya: Spread closed, down $4.92 month-on-month. The negative refining value offsets its price advantage [9] - Mars: Spread open, up $5.04 month-on-month, turning from negative to positive. Mainly because the refining value significantly improves, reversing the negative arbitrage space in January [9] 6. Key Market News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi on the 9th firmly denied that Iran attacked Turkey, Azerbaijan and Cyprus, and called for vigilance against "false flag" operations [11] - Iran said that if it can be guaranteed not to be attacked again, the war can end [11] - US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran will "soon" end, oil and gas prices will rise, and he will lift some sanctions to reduce oil prices. He also threatened Cuba and claimed to transport 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [11] - According to British media, due to the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, many LNG carriers bound for Europe diverted to Asia, resulting in a decline in the UK's energy reserves, with only two days of natural gas reserves left [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil as appropriate and continuing to monitor upside risks [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of major crude oil futures contracts have increased, and the market situation and arbitrage opportunities in different regions have changed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI April crude oil futures rose $3.33 per barrel, a 4.67% increase, to $74.56 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $3.66 per barrel, a 4.71% increase, to $81.40 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures rose 78.70 yuan per barrel, a 13.99% increase, to 641.10 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of most crude oils are closed, with significant changes in spreads compared to January. The main factors include price disadvantages, negative refining values, and high freight costs. However, Vasconia, Castilla, Napo, and Maya have positive spreads due to significant price discounts [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread turned from negative to positive, with a significant increase. Arab Extra Light's spread remained basically flat. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, and Urals' spread increased with a large arbitrage space [4] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of WTI MEH and Eagle Ford narrowed, with WTI MEH approaching the break - even point and Eagle Ford turning negative. Azeri Light's spread remained basically flat, Saharan Blend's spread increased, and Bonny Light's spread turned negative [7] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all decreased, mainly due to the expanding price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals [8] China Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of Duri and Mars turned from negative to positive, with significant increases. Napo's spread narrowed but remained high. The spreads of Basrah Heavy and Maya decreased [9] Key Market News - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 was 564.7 million barrels, higher than expected. There are political events in Iran, including the possible selection of a new leader and the CIA's plan to support the Kurdish armed forces. The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" regarding Iran. Iraq may be forced to cut production by over 3 million barrels per day, and it has already cut production at the West Qurna 2 oil field by 450,000 barrels per day. There are also reports of a possible Saudi attack on Iran [10][11][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report has a "Neutral" rating for the short - term, with the view that geopolitical risks are driving the market to be "relatively strong", and suggests short - term observation [1] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving the crude oil market to be relatively strong, and short - term observation is recommended [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $0.67, or 1.05%, to $64.63 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $0.60, or 0.87%, to $69.40 per barrel. SC2604 crude oil futures rose $3.90, or 0.82%, to $479.80 per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Spread Analysis - **General Spread Changes**: The spreads of different types of crude oil showed various trends. Some spreads deteriorated due to factors such as negative refining value and price disadvantages, while others improved. For example, the spread of Forties deteriorated significantly with a - $1.82 change compared to January, mainly due to a sharp increase in the crude price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of several alternative crude oils improved. Napo's spread improved significantly with a $4.67 change compared to January, mainly due to an extremely deep price discount [4] - **North - West European Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of various alternative crude oils improved, and the arbitrage windows became more favorable. For example, the spread of Saharan Blend widened significantly with a $3.08 change compared to January, driven by refining value and significant price advantages [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved (negative values decreased), but some windows remained deeply closed. For example, the spread of Azeri Light improved significantly with a $2.27 change compared to January due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage [6][7] - **Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different trends. Napo's spread widened significantly with a $5.31 change compared to January, mainly due to a large price discount relative to Dubai [7] 3.3 Key Market News - The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 6 was 853 million barrels, higher than the expected 79.3 million barrels and the previous value of - 345.5 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 107.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 74.3 million barrels [9] - The U.S. Energy Secretary expects a significant increase in Venezuela's oil, gas, and electricity production this year. Morgan Stanley expects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2 million barrels per day in the coming years [10] - The U.S. President Trump mentioned the negotiation with Iran, and Iran's top security official said that Iran is consulting with the U.S. to determine the next round of negotiation time [10]