研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,706.0 | -73.1 | -4.11% | 27,173.0 | -37.68% | 20,008.0 | -8.27% | | EC2604 | 1,163.3 | -18.7 | -1.58% | 16,470.0 | -25.42% | 27,774.0 | 5.45% | | EC2606 | 1,415.0 | -7.9 | -0.56% | 929.0 | -44.90% | 2,476.0 | -0.12% | | EC2608 | 1,527.4 | -5. ...

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： 数据来源：上海航运交易所, Clarksons, Wind, 银河期货 1 / 6 F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,795.1 | -27.8 | -1.53% | 24,777.0 | 1.59% | 27,855.0 | -8.48% | | EC2604 | 1,160.2 | -9.7 | -0.83% | 7,238.0 | 7.04% | 21,241.0 | 0.21% | | EC2606 | 1,370.0 | -4. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline of SCFIS announced yesterday slightly exceeded market expectations, and the EC futures market showed a corrective oscillation today. The quote of $2500 per FEU for the first week of December released by MSK after the market basically met expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain at a low level in the second half of November, and the December quotes need to be monitored this week [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November and December is 265,500 and 283,300 TEU respectively, and 295,800 TEU in January 2026. The capacity in November and January next year has little change, while the capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The recent market trading logic has returned to the spot market [6]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance**: On November 18, EC2512 closed at 1769.5 points, down 1.27% from the previous day's closing price. All listed futures contracts showed price declines, with varying degrees of decrease in trading volume and changes in open interest. The month - spread structure also had corresponding price changes [3][5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% week - on - week and 51.02% year - on - year. Different container freight rates showed various trends, with some routes having price increases and others having decreases [3]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of WTI crude oil's near - month contract was $59.62 per barrel, down 0.32% week - on - week and 13.63% year - on - year. The price of Brent crude oil's near - month contract was $63.62 per barrel, down 0.30% week - on - week and 12.6% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: The decline of the SCFIS European Line index was larger than expected, mainly due to the decline of MSK's freight rates. The index is expected to remain low in the second half of November. The demand for shipments is expected to improve from November to December, and the capacity in December has decreased compared with the previous period [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be in a volatile state, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For arbitrage trading, also a wait - and - see approach is suggested [7]. Industry News The Palestinian government welcomed the US - proposed resolution on Gaza passed by the UN Security Council, which aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure the unobstructed entry and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the Palestinian people's right to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [8].