大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌 | | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.5 | -18.3 | -1.11% | 212.0 | -22.63% | 2,566.0 | -5.80% | | EC2602 | 1,686.8 | -59.2 | -3.39% | 27,798.0 | -1.69% | 32,483.0 | -1.76% | | EC2604 | 1,112.7 | -37.0 | -3.22% | 7,16 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a state of continuous game regarding the implementation range of the announced price increases in December. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The SCFIS European Line Index is expected to remain at a low level in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the December quotes this week [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the shipping companies have announced GRI increases for December. However, the market has significant differences in the future freight rate implementation range. The demand is expected to gradually improve from November to December, and the shipping capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The recent market trading logic has returned to the spot market [7]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both single - side and arbitrage trading [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On November 19, the closing price of EC2512 was 1763.3 points, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day. On November 14, the SCFI European Line was reported at $1417 per TEU, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after the market on Monday was 1357.67 points, a week - on - week decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to the significant decline in the index driven by the drop in MSK freight rates [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, and they have announced GRI increases for December. The market has different views on the implementation of the price increases. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 49 increased by $500 per FEU compared with the previous week. From the fundamental perspective, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The probability of resuming navigation in the near - term is low, and the market trading logic has returned to the spot market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is volatile. For arbitrage trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Industry News - In October, the container imports from Asia's top ten economies to the United States decreased by 8.4% year - on - year, totaling 1.79 million TEUs. Although it only decreased slightly by 0.1% compared with September, the cumulative imports in the first ten months of this year increased by 0.7% to 17 million TEUs [11]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, EC12 and EC02 contract basis, etc., which visually show the trends of relevant indexes and contract basis [13][21].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported total net revenues of $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase from $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $29.7 million, compared to $27.6 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to $38.8 million from $36.1 million in Q3 2024 [25] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $4.27 and $4.25, respectively, compared to $3.97 and $3.95 for the same period last year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average charter rate per vessel per day increased by 10.7% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [24] - The company operated an average of 22 vessels in Q3 2025, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $29,284 per day, compared to 23 vessels earning $26,446 per day in Q3 2024 [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declined to its lowest level in nearly two years by late September 2025, but stabilized and increased by 30% in October and early November [10] - The average second-hand price index rose by about 4.4% in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, supported by limited vessel availability and strong buyer interest [10] - The global fleet expanded by 6% year-to-date, with recycling activity remaining subdued [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a $20 million share repurchase plan, having repurchased 466,000 shares for approximately $10.5 million [4] - The company has secured charters for four new vessels at rates of $35,500 per day for four years, indicating a strategic focus on long-term contracts [7][21] - The company aims to maintain leverage around 50%, adjusting based on market conditions [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains mixed, with time charter rates holding firm despite a decline in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index [18] - Concerns over oversupply and increased competition among carriers may pressure rates from 2027 onwards [19] - The company anticipates a conservative approach to fleet management, potentially scrapping older vessels if market conditions worsen [83] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 5% [4] - The total outstanding bank debt as of September 30, 2025, was about $224 million, with a cost of debt around 5.9% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for scheduled off-hire days for Q4 and 2026 - Management indicated minimal dry docking scheduled for the next 12 months, with likely off-hire for Q4 being almost zero [44][45] Question: Impact of container ship ordering on supply and rates - Management acknowledged that increased ordering could pressure rates from 2027, but noted strong coverage for 2027 with 52% locked in [48][49] Question: Willingness to book long-term contracts - Management explained that the aging fleet in smaller vessels is driving demand for long-term contracts as charters seek to secure tonnage [62] Question: Remaining commitments for new builds - Management confirmed that approximately $200 million remains to be paid for the new builds, with payments structured around delivery timelines [67] Question: Strategy on selling older assets - Management stated a conservative approach, considering scrapping older vessels if market conditions decline significantly [83][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total net revenues were reported at $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase from $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $29.7 million, compared to $27.6 million in Q3 2024 [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased to $38.8 million from $36.1 million in Q3 2024 [25] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $4.27 and $4.25, respectively, compared to $3.97 and $3.95 for the same period last year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average time charter equivalent rate for vessels in Q3 2025 was $29,284 per day, compared to $26,446 per day in Q3 2024 [30] - Daily operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $7,246 per vessel per day, slightly down from $7,249 in Q3 2024 [31] - The cash flow break-even level for Q3 2025 was $13,073 per vessel per day, compared to $13,629 in Q3 2024 [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declined to its lowest level in nearly two years by late September 2025, but saw a 30% uptick in October and early November [10] - The global fleet expanded by 6% year-to-date, with idle capacity remaining practically nonexistent [11] - New building prices remained stable, with Korean and Japanese yards gradually increasing prices relative to Chinese yards [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a $20 million share repurchase plan, having repurchased 466,000 shares for approximately $10.5 million [4] - The company has extended charters for several vessels, indicating a strategy focused on securing long-term contracts [5][6] - The company is exploring additional vessel orders while maintaining a cautious approach to leverage, targeting around 50% [73] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market remains mixed, with time charter rates holding firm despite a decline in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index [18] - Concerns over oversupply and increased competition among carriers could pressure rates from 2027 onwards [48] - Management expressed confidence in the fleet's cash flow generation potential, with a break-even level well below current earnings [38] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share for Q3 2025, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 5% [4] - The total outstanding bank debt as of September 30, 2025, was about $224 million, with a cost of debt around 5.9% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for scheduled off-hire days for Q4 and 2026 - Management indicated minimal dry dockings expected, with likely off-hire for Q4 being almost zero [44][45] Question: Impact of container ship ordering on supply and rates - Management acknowledged that increased ordering could pressure rates from 2027, but noted strong coverage for 2027 with 52% locked in [48] Question: Willingness to book long-term contracts - Management explained that charters are eager to secure tonnage due to an aging fleet and increasing trade demands [62] Question: Remaining commitments for new builds - Management confirmed that approximately $200 million remains to be paid for new builds, with payments structured around delivery timelines [67] Question: Strategy on selling older assets - Management stated a conservative approach to scrapping older vessels if market conditions decline significantly [83][85]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline of SCFIS announced yesterday slightly exceeded market expectations, and the EC futures market showed a corrective oscillation today. The quote of $2500 per FEU for the first week of December released by MSK after the market basically met expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain at a low level in the second half of November, and the December quotes need to be monitored this week [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November and December is 265,500 and 283,300 TEU respectively, and 295,800 TEU in January 2026. The capacity in November and January next year has little change, while the capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The recent market trading logic has returned to the spot market [6]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance**: On November 18, EC2512 closed at 1769.5 points, down 1.27% from the previous day's closing price. All listed futures contracts showed price declines, with varying degrees of decrease in trading volume and changes in open interest. The month - spread structure also had corresponding price changes [3][5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% week - on - week and 51.02% year - on - year. Different container freight rates showed various trends, with some routes having price increases and others having decreases [3]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of WTI crude oil's near - month contract was $59.62 per barrel, down 0.32% week - on - week and 13.63% year - on - year. The price of Brent crude oil's near - month contract was $63.62 per barrel, down 0.30% week - on - week and 12.6% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: The decline of the SCFIS European Line index was larger than expected, mainly due to the decline of MSK's freight rates. The index is expected to remain low in the second half of November. The demand for shipments is expected to improve from November to December, and the capacity in December has decreased compared with the previous period [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be in a volatile state, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For arbitrage trading, also a wait - and - see approach is suggested [7]. Industry News The Palestinian government welcomed the US - proposed resolution on Gaza passed by the UN Security Council, which aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure the unobstructed entry and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the Palestinian people's right to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the EC futures market declined on November 6. Spot freight rates show that the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, but attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff adjustments on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports is increasing. Short - term attention should be paid to the shipping companies' cargo - collecting performance and the impact of the adjusted last trading day on the EC2602 contract valuation [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts decreased, with declines of - 5.03%, - 3.09%, - 1.80%, - 0.83%, - 0.88%, and - 0.25% respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, except for EC2608 and EC2610 which increased by 44.58% and 116.94% respectively. The positions of most contracts decreased, except for EC2602 which increased by 1.22% and EC2610 which increased by 12.23% [6]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 46.8, and the spread of EC12 - EC04 decreased by 76.2 [6]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line index was 1208.71 points, with a week - on - week decrease of - 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of - 46.48%. SCFIS US West Line index was 1267.15 points, with a week - on - week increase of 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of - 54.40%. The SCFI comprehensive index was 1550.70 points, with a week - on - week increase of 10.49% and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.04% [6]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.48 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of - 16.69%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.28 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.4% [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - MSK's WK47 weekly quote of $2250 was lower than market expectations, and the upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November was insufficient, leading to a decline in the EC futures market. The spot price of SCFIS European Line decreased by 7.9%, slightly exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the change in the settlement index rhythm caused by the rolling and delay of some ships in the second half of October. Maersk expects the interference in the Red Sea area to last for a whole year and is cautious about the fourth - quarter development due to a large number of new ships entering the market. The Ministry of Commerce announced the adjustment of relevant restrictions on the US from November 10, and attention should be paid to the impact on shipping volume and rhythm [7]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the shipping companies' upward momentum in the second half of November will weaken, and the futures market has already factored in peak - season expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Maersk has selected New Times Shipbuilding to build 8 + 4 18000TEU dual - fuel LNG - powered container ships, with new ships expected to be delivered from 2028 to 2029. The total cost of all 12 ships will reach $2.316 billion if the optional orders are confirmed [10]. - The EU - China Chamber of Commerce expressed deep concern about the EU's investigation into the so - called subsidy issue of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing that the EU's "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" should not be used as a unilateral tool for protectionism [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market is volatile, with some contracts down and some showing changes in volume and open interest. The spot price of SCFI European Line has rebounded, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases for November. The market is concerned about the implementation of price increases and the impact of policies such as the US 301 port levy and China's special port fees for US ships [3][5]. - It is expected that the shipping company's freight rate center will move up in the second half of October. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity compared to the previous period. The upcoming price increase season from November to December and the implementation of port levy measures may bring cost increases and supply - chain disruptions [7][8]. - The progress of the cease - fire negotiation and resumption of flights in the Palestine - Israel conflict is expected to suppress the far - month contracts. The report provides trading strategies, including holding remaining long positions in EC2512, considering buying on dips for near - month contracts, and specific operations for arbitrage [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the EC2512 closed at 1571 points, down 6.93% from the previous day. The latest SCFI European Line reported 1068 USD/TEU, up 10% month - on - month, ending a 9 - week decline. Shipping companies such as MSK and CMA have announced price increases for November [3][5]. - **News Impact**: China will collect special port fees for US ships starting from October 14, and the US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships on the same day, which may affect port costs and ship deployment [6][11]. - **Container Shipment Volume**: In August 2025, the container shipment volume from Asia to Europe was 1.85 million TEU, up 11.8% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to North America was 2.014 million TEU, down 12.3% year - on - year; the shipment volume from Asia to the world was 10.529 million TEU, up 4.7% year - on - year; the global container shipment volume was 16.612 million TEU, up 2.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some shipping companies have raised freight rates in the second half of October, and it is expected that the freight rate center will move up. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the supply side has a decrease in capacity. The cease - fire negotiation in the Palestine - Israel conflict may suppress far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Remaining long positions in EC2512 can be held. Consider buying on dips for the near - month contract EC2512 and operate flexibly [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage at high prices; hold the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage and add positions on dips [10]. Industry News - **US Policy**: The US will implement the "301 Clause" measures on Chinese ships from October 14, which is expected to disrupt the global shipping order and increase costs for enterprises and consumers [11]. - **Maersk's Initiative**: Maersk is collaborating with 50 shipowners to retrofit about 200 chartered ships to reduce emissions, fuel costs, and improve cargo - carrying capacity, with over 1500 projects completed and 1000 in progress, expected to finish in 2027 [12]. - **Red Sea Situation**: Israel and Hamas have reached a cease - fire agreement, but the agreement has details missing, and the Houthi armed forces will closely monitor its implementation [14].

Euroseas Ltd. Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Euroseas Ltd. operates in the container shipping industry, focusing on the feeder segment with a fleet of 22 vessels, including 15 feeder container ships and 7 intermediate-sized container ships, totaling over 67,000 TEU capacity [2][3] - The company has four vessels under construction, each with a capacity of 4,300 TEU, scheduled for delivery in late 2027 and early 2028 [3] Industry Context - The container shipping market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past 20 years, influenced by events such as China's WTO entry, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to unprecedented shipping rates [9][10] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the situation in the Red Sea, have further impacted shipping dynamics, creating additional demand for feeder services [10][11] Fleet and Operational Strategy - Euroseas is modernizing its fleet through a new building program and retrofitting older vessels to improve fuel efficiency, achieving fuel savings of approximately 25% [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of the feeder sector, which plays a critical role in distributing containers from major hubs to final destinations [7][15] Financial Performance - Euroseas reported $114 million in net revenue and an EBITDA of $76 million in the first half of the year, with average charter rates of $28,500 per day [18] - The company has 100% fleet employment for 2025 and 70% for 2026, with contracted rates exceeding $30,000 per day [17][18] - A dividend of $0.70 per quarter has been established, translating to a 5% annualized yield [19] Market Outlook and Challenges - The company faces uncertainties related to tariffs, the resolution of the Red Sea situation, and environmental regulations that may impact the shipping industry [11][12] - The supply of container ships is high, with a significant number of vessels under construction, which could affect future rates and demand [12][13] Investment Thesis - Euroseas believes that the feeder segment will experience different supply dynamics compared to the overall container ship market, with a low order book and a high percentage of older vessels likely to be removed from service [14][15] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with low leverage, a market value of the fleet significantly above debt levels, and a net asset value estimated at $80 per share, compared to a recent trading price of around $56 [20][21] Conclusion - Euroseas presents a compelling investment opportunity in the container shipping market, particularly in the feeder segment, with strong earnings visibility, a solid dividend yield, and potential for stock price appreciation [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Shipping companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation. The US - China trade route has seen a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with freight rates in the East and West of the US reaching a high and potentially peaking. The European route has a downward pressure on capacity in June, and there is an expectation of price increases in August. Ship delays have a negative impact on the SCFIS, and the Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [1][3][4][7]. - The recommended strategy is for the main contract to fluctuate, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that multiple shipping companies have reported higher freight rates for July. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 26 was 1705/2870, and in the first week of July it was 2040/3400 [1]. - Geopolitically, US Vice - President Pence said Trump might take action against Iran's nuclear program, but no specific details were given [2]. - The US - China trade route has seen a rapid increase in demand due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Carriers are actively restoring capacity, with the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June being 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. However, freight rates in the East and West of the US may have peaked [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European route decreased. The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and there were 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - Ship delays have dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th and are expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The 06 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be around 1940 points [5]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [6]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the statistical capacity in July is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates. Currently, shipping companies are trying to increase freight rates in July and August [7]. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 88,862 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 93,114 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as the EC2602 contract at 1430.20, the EC2604 contract at 1243.80, etc. [8] Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8] Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 37 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU and 6 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [8] Supply Chain - Ship delays have affected the SCFIS, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may have an impact on shipping routes, but the direct impact on container shipping is relatively small [5][6] Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the content other than the potential impact on shipping demand and freight rates due to geopolitical and trade factors [2][3]