大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,121.1 | 1.2 | 0.11% | 6.475.0 | -58.39% | 18,352.0 | -12.73% | | EC2512 | 1,571.0 | -117.0 | -6.93% | 31,475.0 | -24.17% | 28,056.0 | 15.83% | | EC2602 | 1,338.0 | -68.0 | -4.84% | 7,164.0 | -43.98% ...

Euroseas Ltd. Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Euroseas Ltd. operates in the container shipping industry, focusing on the feeder segment with a fleet of 22 vessels, including 15 feeder container ships and 7 intermediate-sized container ships, totaling over 67,000 TEU capacity [2][3] - The company has four vessels under construction, each with a capacity of 4,300 TEU, scheduled for delivery in late 2027 and early 2028 [3] Industry Context - The container shipping market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past 20 years, influenced by events such as China's WTO entry, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to unprecedented shipping rates [9][10] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the situation in the Red Sea, have further impacted shipping dynamics, creating additional demand for feeder services [10][11] Fleet and Operational Strategy - Euroseas is modernizing its fleet through a new building program and retrofitting older vessels to improve fuel efficiency, achieving fuel savings of approximately 25% [5][6] - The company emphasizes the importance of the feeder sector, which plays a critical role in distributing containers from major hubs to final destinations [7][15] Financial Performance - Euroseas reported $114 million in net revenue and an EBITDA of $76 million in the first half of the year, with average charter rates of $28,500 per day [18] - The company has 100% fleet employment for 2025 and 70% for 2026, with contracted rates exceeding $30,000 per day [17][18] - A dividend of $0.70 per quarter has been established, translating to a 5% annualized yield [19] Market Outlook and Challenges - The company faces uncertainties related to tariffs, the resolution of the Red Sea situation, and environmental regulations that may impact the shipping industry [11][12] - The supply of container ships is high, with a significant number of vessels under construction, which could affect future rates and demand [12][13] Investment Thesis - Euroseas believes that the feeder segment will experience different supply dynamics compared to the overall container ship market, with a low order book and a high percentage of older vessels likely to be removed from service [14][15] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with low leverage, a market value of the fleet significantly above debt levels, and a net asset value estimated at $80 per share, compared to a recent trading price of around $56 [20][21] Conclusion - Euroseas presents a compelling investment opportunity in the container shipping market, particularly in the feeder segment, with strong earnings visibility, a solid dividend yield, and potential for stock price appreciation [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Shipping companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation. The US - China trade route has seen a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with freight rates in the East and West of the US reaching a high and potentially peaking. The European route has a downward pressure on capacity in June, and there is an expectation of price increases in August. Ship delays have a negative impact on the SCFIS, and the Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [1][3][4][7]. - The recommended strategy is for the main contract to fluctuate, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that multiple shipping companies have reported higher freight rates for July. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 26 was 1705/2870, and in the first week of July it was 2040/3400 [1]. - Geopolitically, US Vice - President Pence said Trump might take action against Iran's nuclear program, but no specific details were given [2]. - The US - China trade route has seen a rapid increase in demand due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Carriers are actively restoring capacity, with the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June being 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. However, freight rates in the East and West of the US may have peaked [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European route decreased. The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and there were 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - Ship delays have dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th and are expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The 06 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be around 1940 points [5]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [6]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the statistical capacity in July is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates. Currently, shipping companies are trying to increase freight rates in July and August [7]. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 88,862 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 93,114 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as the EC2602 contract at 1430.20, the EC2604 contract at 1243.80, etc. [8] Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8] Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 37 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU and 6 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [8] Supply Chain - Ship delays have affected the SCFIS, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may have an impact on shipping routes, but the direct impact on container shipping is relatively small [5][6] Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the content other than the potential impact on shipping demand and freight rates due to geopolitical and trade factors [2][3]