根据联合声明发表的最新关税政策，中美之间最高 145%的关税在 5 月 14 日之前降至 30%（由 10%的对等关税和 20%的芬太尼关税组成）， 7 月 9 日视情况恢复至 54%或再协商，91%的报复性关税完全取消，出口 的不确定性影响进一步降低。中美发布联合声明是一个较为重要的举措， 关税商谈的进展顺利程度和发布效率远超市场预期。美国在此次对我方 做出了较大让步后，后续的贸易框架协定有望在年内谈成。最终达成的完 整版协议可能仍然将通过以打促谈的模式，也有可能再迎来具体行业的 关税反复，需要观察未来针对部分产品名录的惩罚性关税和 232 调查最 终的结果。 本次谈判超预期的主要原因在于美国国内日渐增长的政 治压力和经济压力。考虑到明年 11 月的中期选举投票，今年对其他主要 贸易国家的框架协议将作为特朗普的"政绩"，7 月的缓和期到期后将进 入框架协议的谈判高峰，时间较为紧迫。另外，关税冲突对经济数据的不 确定性依旧高企，3 月美国商品和服务贸易逆差环比增长 14%，消费品进 口创历史新高，美国消费品库存压力大，"抢进口"效应愈发明显，美国 对于关税下降的诉求相对中国来说更为紧迫。 风险提示：美国关税政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FDA's recent policy shift aims to gradually eliminate mandatory animal testing in monoclonal antibody therapies and drug development, promoting alternatives like AI, organoids, and organ-on-a-chip technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - Traditional CROs like Zhaoyan New Drug and Charles River Laboratories faced significant stock price declines following the announcement, with Charles River's stock dropping 28.13% and Zhaoyan's by 9.98% [1]. - The FDA's new policy is seen as a potential game-changer for the industry, providing a clear direction for reducing reliance on animal testing [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Industry experts acknowledge that while the new regulations indicate a shift, substantial clinical data is still needed to validate the effectiveness of organoids in toxicity prediction compared to animal testing [2][6]. - The TGN1412 incident highlights the limitations of animal testing, as severe reactions occurred in human trials that were not predicted by prior monkey studies, underscoring the need for alternative methods [2][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Organoid and organ-on-a-chip technologies have been in development for over a decade and are now being recognized for their potential to simulate human responses more accurately than animal models [4][5]. - The FDA has identified specific organ models, such as liver and heart, that can be utilized in drug development, indicating a structured approach to integrating these technologies into regulatory frameworks [5][6]. Group 4: Financial and Market Trends - The organoid and organ-on-a-chip sectors are still in early development stages, with significant investments from major pharmaceutical companies like Johnson & Johnson and Merck, indicating growing confidence in these technologies [9][10]. - Despite a challenging investment climate, the organoid industry has seen optimistic funding trends, with companies securing millions in financing even during downturns [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of organoids and AI is expected to enhance drug efficacy predictions and reduce toxicity screening failures, which are critical for successful drug development [10]. - As the industry moves towards adopting these technologies, the potential for improved drug safety and efficacy could redefine the landscape of pharmaceutical research and development [10].