Group 1 - Record futures bets have been accumulated by U.S. rate traders, speculating that after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish policy stance immediately [1] - The speculation about the successor to Powell leading immediate rate cuts stems from Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell for not lowering rates [1][2] - Futures bets have increased significantly since Trump indicated he would soon nominate a successor, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Bank's Steven Barrow noted that Trump may choose a successor who is more in favor of loose monetary policy, which could complicate the confirmation process in Congress [2] - Analysts, including Gavekal Research's Will Denyer, suggest that Trump's early nomination of a Fed chair could lead to investor focus on the "shadow" Fed chair's statements and Powell's signals for nearly a year [2] - The futures market is seeing heavy selling of the March 2026 SOFR contracts while buying the June 2026 contracts, indicating a bet on rate cuts during that period [2][3] Group 3 - On Monday, futures position volume reached a record 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June 2026 contracts at their highest levels in the current policy cycle [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to focus on officials' forecasts, with the median dot plot predicting one rate cut in 2025 [3] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will introduce approximately 43 basis points of easing by the end of the year, with the first cut likely in October [3]

智通财经APP注意到，至少有一位大额期权交易员押注1800万美元，赌美联储今年不会降息。 期货和期权市场的投资者整体上仍预计美联储将在7月会议上降息，并认为今年至少还会再降两次。但过去几周，一个重大头寸正在期权合约中累积——如 果美联储在2025年之前维持利率不变或加息，该合约将获利。 周二公布的芝加哥商品交易所(CME)数据显示，本周该交易的未平仓合约(即新增风险敞口)激增。这一赌注与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)合约挂钩，该合约 追踪美联储年底前的政策路径。 这一押注在当下显得尤为另类，因为投资者正评估特朗普关税政策对经济和通胀的潜在影响。许多华尔街人士加大押注，认为若关税导致经济放缓，美联储 将不得不降息。而近期针对12月合约的交易却淡化了这一预期。 与此同时，摩根大通客户调查显示，在特朗普宣布关税引发债市抛售后，投资者正重返国债现货市场，过去一周多头和空头头寸均小幅增加。 以下是利率市场最新定位指标的概述： 摩根大通财务客户调查 截至 4 月 28 日当周，多头和空头仓位均上涨 2 个百分点，而中性仓位则在当周下降了 4 个百分点。 知情人士透露，仅自上周四以来，一名或最多几名交易员就建立了8万份合约 ...