Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones up by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.29% and 0.09% respectively [1] - Bitcoin-related stocks saw gains, with Circle rising over 12% and Coinbase increasing by more than 3% [1] - Chinese concept stocks experienced declines, with Huya dropping over 7% and other companies like Bilibili, JD.com, Douyu, Li Auto, and Xpeng falling by more than 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Developments - The largest "Triple Witching" event in history is set to occur, with potential implications for the US stock market, as options worth up to $6.5 trillion are set to expire [2] - President Trump has called for a 250 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell for delaying action that he claims is costing the US billions [3] Group 3: Corporate News - The European Investment Bank is expected to announce a funding plan of up to €70 billion (approximately $75 billion) to support technology companies in areas such as supercomputing, AI, and robotics over the next three years [4] - The European Court's chief legal advisor supports a previous antitrust ruling against Google, recommending a fine of €4.12 billion (approximately ¥34.1 billion) [5] - Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the broader market, with its Class A shares dropping over 10% since May 3, contrasting sharply with the strong rebound of the S&P 500 [6] - Tesla has initiated a significant project in Shanghai, with a total investment of ¥4 billion for its first grid-side energy storage project in mainland China [7]

Group 1 - Record futures bets have been accumulated by U.S. rate traders, speculating that after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish policy stance immediately [1] - The speculation about the successor to Powell leading immediate rate cuts stems from Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell for not lowering rates [1][2] - Futures bets have increased significantly since Trump indicated he would soon nominate a successor, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Bank's Steven Barrow noted that Trump may choose a successor who is more in favor of loose monetary policy, which could complicate the confirmation process in Congress [2] - Analysts, including Gavekal Research's Will Denyer, suggest that Trump's early nomination of a Fed chair could lead to investor focus on the "shadow" Fed chair's statements and Powell's signals for nearly a year [2] - The futures market is seeing heavy selling of the March 2026 SOFR contracts while buying the June 2026 contracts, indicating a bet on rate cuts during that period [2][3] Group 3 - On Monday, futures position volume reached a record 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June 2026 contracts at their highest levels in the current policy cycle [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to focus on officials' forecasts, with the median dot plot predicting one rate cut in 2025 [3] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will introduce approximately 43 basis points of easing by the end of the year, with the first cut likely in October [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. trade policies on the performance of the Asia-Pacific stock markets, leading to mixed results across the region [1][3] - Southeast Asian stock markets predominantly experienced declines, with Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index dropping by 1.08% and Thailand's SET Index falling by 1.21% [1] - The overall trend in the Asia-Pacific region shows slight increases in stock indices, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising by 0.25% and South Korea's KOSPI increasing by 2.94% [1] Group 2 - Economic growth in Southeast Asia is slowing, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87%, the weakest since Q3 2021, and Thailand's growth at 3.1%, prompting concerns about domestic demand and high household debt [4] - Countries like Indonesia and Thailand are implementing large-scale economic stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Indonesia's plan valued at approximately $1.5 billion [5] - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could disrupt economic balance, particularly in Thailand, where the effectiveness of stimulus measures may be limited due to structural issues [6] Group 3 - Inflation in Asia is beginning to slow, with the consumer price index (CPI) in the region (excluding Japan) at approximately 1.5%, the lowest since Q1 2021, providing potential room for interest rate cuts [8] - Thailand's CPI decreased by 0.57% in May, marking a second consecutive month of negative inflation, while Indonesia's CPI remains within the government's target range [8] - The potential for a wave of interest rate cuts in Asia is being considered, especially in Southeast Asian countries heavily reliant on exports and tourism [8][9] Group 4 - South Korea's economy is facing a contraction risk, with a 0.2% decline in real GDP in Q1, prompting the government to initiate an "emergency economic inspection" [10] - The rise in South Korea's stock market is attributed to reform expectations, but long-term sustainability remains uncertain due to global demand slowdown and unresolved social issues [10][11] - Japan's central bank is expected to maintain interest rates, with discussions on reducing government bond purchases, reflecting a stable but cautious economic outlook [11]

Group 1 - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are gradually disappearing from the market, with major banks like ICBC, CCB, and others removing five-year products and reducing three-year offerings [1][2] - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have significantly declined, with three-year rates dropping to around 1.55%, down from approximately 2% just three months ago, resulting in a loss of nearly 2000 yuan in interest for a 200,000 yuan deposit [1][2] - Smaller banks are also joining the trend of lowering interest rates, with banks like Tianjin Bank and Blue Ocean Bank reducing their three-year CD rates to 2.05% and 2.30% respectively [2] Group 2 - The situation among banks in Hunan province shows divergence, with Changsha Bank completely removing large-denomination CDs, while Hunan Bank offers various terms with rates up to 1.8% for three and five-year products [2] - The core reason for the reduction in long-term large-denomination CD offerings and interest rates is to lower funding costs and maintain a reasonable net interest margin, as banks face historically low net interest margins and declining loan rates [2] - The attractiveness of large-denomination CDs is diminishing, as alternative products like Tianhong's Yu'ebao are offering competitive rates with lower entry barriers, making traditional CDs less appealing [2]

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号： S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号： S0890525040001 投资要点 行业动态： 银行理财估值整改行至半程，目前行业整改进度呈现差异化特征，个别股份行理财 子在去年底已完成全面整改。随着新一轮降息潮的到来，大额存单的利率已全面进入"1"时代， 甚至多家银行下架了5年期大额存单产品，反映了银行在净息差压力下对负债结构的主动优化。 同业创新动态： 存款利率持续下行引发银行理财市场深度变革，农银理财等理财公司纷纷以创 新策略抢占市场先机，发力长周期与分红型理财产品。兴银理财为响应金融"五篇大文章"，通 过联动兴业银行各地分行，落地多单认股权业务，覆盖生物医药、国产超算、高端制造等多个 行业领域。浦银理财推出两款"鑫"系列绿色科技主题理财产品，紧密跟踪上证绿色公司债指数 和上证科技创新公司债指数，深度支持清洁能源、绿色交通、生态环保等主题，前瞻布局科技 创新、战略新兴产业等。 收益率表现： 上周（2025/6/2-2025/6/8，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得1.43%， 环比下行1BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.34%，环比下行2BP。现 ...

Core Insights - The interest rates for large time deposits have entered the "1" era, with many banks even removing 5-year large time deposit products from their offerings [1] - A specific example highlights that a deposit of 200,000 yuan for three years now yields approximately 2,000 yuan less in interest compared to three months ago, when rates were around 2% [1] - The recent wave of interest rate cuts has led to a general decline in large time deposit rates, resulting in reduced earnings for many depositors [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking the Eurozone's entry into a global easing trend and is seen as a core driver of the spread of loose monetary policy [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 is projected at only 0.9%, with inflation having decreased to 2.3%, still above the 2% target, and core inflation remaining at 3.1% for three consecutive months, indicating weak domestic demand and wage pressures [3] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the rate cut aims to balance the risks of falling inflation and economic growth to avoid stagflation [3] Group 2 - The ECB's actions have triggered a chain reaction among global central banks, with the Bank of Canada cutting rates twice, and emerging markets like Mexico and Chile following suit, resulting in the largest easing wave since 2020 [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, with traders anticipating a total reduction of 75 basis points by 2025 [3] - Despite the traditional view of rate cuts as a means to stimulate the economy, their effectiveness is being questioned, as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI has remained below the neutral line for 12 consecutive months, and corporate investment sentiment is low [3] Group 3 - The ECB hinted at the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2025 if inflation continues to decline, but there are internal disagreements among ECB members regarding the timing and extent of easing [4] - Concerns are growing that synchronized easing by global central banks may lead to ineffective monetary policy, with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noting a potential 30%-50% decrease in the effectiveness of traditional monetary tools when rates are below neutral [4] - Structural issues such as population aging and lagging technological advancements remain unresolved by rate cuts, with the Eurozone's working-age population declining by an average of 0.3% annually since 2018 [4] Group 4 - The ECB's rate cut is seen as a short-term response to economic pressures and reflects a broader shift in global monetary policy [4] - The challenges faced by central banks include balancing growth stimulation with risk prevention and addressing structural issues with limited monetary tools [4] - The outcome of this global easing experiment may reshape the economic landscape for the next decade [4]

降息大环境叠加存款定期化，银行负债端定价管理思路生变。随着近日政策利率中枢再次下 调，存款利率仍有下行空间，不过调降节奏有望趋缓 又一轮银行"降息潮"来袭。4月以来，已有数十家中小银行宣布下调存款利率。调整后，部分银行长期 限存款利率跌破2%，步入"1时代"。 据《财经》不完全统计，在近三年多轮降息后，有地方行个别期限存款利率较三年前已"腰斩"。以10万 元存款、5年存期计算，现在存入后得到的利息不足2022年时一半。 与此同时，伴随本轮降息，不少银行长短期存款利率出现倒挂，"存5年不如存3年，甚至不如存1年"。 业内人士表示，这是净息差收窄压力下，银行加强负债端成本管理、加强自身经营稳定性的表现，也反 映了对未来利率进一步下行趋势的预判。 一位全国性股份行零售业务条线经理告诉《财经》，近年该行对存款增量业务的考核中，一度加大了1 年期以下定期存款的考核权重，"因为我行短期定存利率相对低，银行负债成本压力更小"。 未来，存款利率或还将下行。5月8日，政策利率中枢再度下调，7天期逆回购操作利率由1.5%调整为 1.4%。业内人士表示，在政策利率、LPR（贷款市场报价利率）、银行存款挂牌利率这样的传导链条 下，叠 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of deposit rate cuts is occurring across various banks in China, with over 20 banks reducing their fixed deposit rates since April, leading to a significant decline in high-interest deposits above 3% and a shift towards rates in the "1% era" [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rate Cuts - Since April, at least 20 banks have lowered their deposit rates, with small and medium-sized banks and private banks taking the lead in these adjustments [3][4] - Major banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, have initiated the rate cuts, followed by local and private banks [2][3] - For example, Hami City Commercial Bank has reduced its one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit rates to 1.5%, 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.85% respectively, with declines of 10 to 20 basis points [2] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to lower banks' funding costs and reduce interest expenses, which may help maintain stable interest margins [4][5] - The net interest margin for 42 banks has narrowed over the past year, with declines ranging from 1 to 51 basis points, particularly affecting joint-stock and local banks [4] - The People's Bank of China has announced a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy rates, which is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5][6] Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Trends - Following the People's Bank of China's recent monetary policy measures, there is a widespread expectation of a collective reduction in deposit rates across banks [6] - Analysts predict that the upcoming deposit rate cuts may range from 10 to 25 basis points and could begin to take effect as early as next month [6] - The current trend of deposit rate reductions is viewed as a continuation of previous rate cuts aimed at stabilizing growth and managing risks in the financial system [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has announced a temporary suspension of government bond trading operations, citing a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.6% [1] - Over 20 commercial banks have reduced their fixed deposit rates since April, leading to a significant decline in high-interest deposits, with rates now entering the "1 era" [2] - Three major banks, including Bank of Communications, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of China, have received approval for their A-share stock issuance to specific investors, pending further regulatory approval [3] Group 2 - Experts suggest that large commercial banks raising funds through stock issuance will enhance their core capital, improving their stability and ability to serve the real economy, thus contributing to financial security and high-quality economic development [3] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has responded to false claims regarding impurities in gold bars sold at its branches, emphasizing the importance of consumer protection and proper documentation [4] - Several banks, including Industrial Bank and Bank of Communications, have prohibited the use of credit cards for gold trading, highlighting the risks associated with leveraging credit for investment purposes [5]