Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a new high and significant capital inflow expected in the future [1] - The macroeconomic environment is projected to influence commodity markets through three main themes by 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a rate-cutting trend, which are expected to drive price increases in commodities like copper and aluminum [1] - The sustainability of the super cycle in non-ferrous metals is contingent on three factors: the recovery of US dollar credit, the progress of strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, suggesting that the super cycle is likely to continue until 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of January 5, the latest scale of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) is 879 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core strategy for investing in stocks, particularly in cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals, is to follow futures prices rather than market trends [1] - In 2025, gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures rising over 60% for the year, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 [1] - Copper prices also surged, with LME three-month copper reaching a historical peak of $12,960 per ton, and Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton for the first time [1] Group 2 - The recent copper price rally is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, which directly boosts prices and reduces holding costs, benefiting non-ferrous metals from the Fed's interest rate cuts [2] - Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of the Cascavel copper-gold mine, which holds 12.2 million tons of copper and over 30 million ounces of gold, is expected to double copper production by 2028 [2] - The macroeconomic narrative of "green inflation" and "interest rate cuts" provides strong support for the sector's prosperity, with structural demand for copper driven by AI and new energy [2] Group 3 - The outlook for copper prices in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of further price increases due to limited new supply and ongoing demand from new energy and grid upgrades [2] - Investment plans for 2026 include holding stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper, while observing Jiangxi Copper as an industry leader [2] - The international market for gold, silver, and copper futures reached new highs by the end of 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals [2]

专题：券商基金业2026新年寄语：逐梦未来，向光而行 2025年行情已然收官。回顾全球资本市场表现，多国股市延续了2024年的涨势。在全球央行掀起降息 潮、释放充裕流动性的背景下，多数市场实现上涨。然而，4月份受特朗普关税政策冲击，全球股市一 度大幅调整，美股等多个市场甚至陷入技术性熊市。 尽管如此，全球市场最终展现出较强韧性。在AI革命的推动下，多国股指大幅回升，美股、日股、欧 股、韩股均创历史新高，并推动MSCI全球指数在2025年再度实现两位数涨幅，上涨约20%，连续第三 年涨幅突破15%。这无疑受益于AI热潮的持续推动。 A股与港股表现也不俗：上证指数上涨近20%，重上4000点关口，虽在年底有所反复，但最终收出"11连 阳"，预示2026年行情可能延续牛市走势；创业板指数更是大涨50%，科技牛行情特征突出。 亚太股市方面，日本和韩国股市开启一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。有利的宏观环境及估值洼地优势，也增 强了欧洲股市对海外投资者的吸引力。在美联储降息三次的背景下，特朗普相关政策引发的资本外流， 不仅助推黄金等金属走出大幅上涨的牛市，也带动了墨西哥、巴西、哥伦比亚等拉美新兴经济体股市走 强。 MSCI亚太指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant capital inflows and positive market sentiment [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends, with three main themes projected to influence commodity fluctuations by 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is likely to continue until 2026, depending on the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic reserve progress, and the effectiveness of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 30, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has a total size of 835 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), which has seen a significant increase in net subscriptions and is expected to continue its upward trend [1][2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) experienced a price drop of 2% at the opening but quickly rebounded, currently showing a gain of 0.52%, indicating resilience in the market [1] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that by 2026, three main themes (green inflation, anti-involution, and interest rate cuts) will continue to drive commodity price fluctuations, with a positive outlook for basic metals like copper and aluminum due to emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 29, the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) has a total size of 794 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same index in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.3%, currently up 1.88%, marking a new high since its listing [1]. - Huabao ETF has received a net subscription of 3 million units, with a total capital inflow of 56.11 million yuan over the past two days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metal sector [1]. - Key stocks such as Guocheng Mining and Yongxing Materials surged over 6%, while other significant players like Baotai Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum also showed notable gains [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The Huabao Fund anticipates three main themes driving the rise in non-ferrous metal prices through 2026: "green inflation" related to basic metals, "anti-involution" in new energy metals, and a "rate cut wave" impacting precious metals [4][5]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to increase due to the growth of new industries like AI and renewable energy, with a projected supply shortage impacting prices positively [4]. - Lithium prices are expected to rise as excess production is cleared, with forecasts suggesting lithium carbonate could reach 90,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [5]. - The anticipated acceleration of the Federal Reserve's rate cut process may enhance gold's appeal as a non-replaceable monetary asset, with precious metals expected to continue their upward trajectory [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is likely to maintain a bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a diversified approach through comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous metal sector via ETFs like Huabao, which includes exposure to copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, thereby mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high since its listing, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1][10]. Fund Performance - As of the report, Huabao ETF (159876) has seen a net subscription of 3 million units, with a total inflow of 56.11 million yuan over the past two days, indicating positive market sentiment towards the non-ferrous metal sector [1][10]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector include Guocheng Mining and Yongxing Materials, both rising over 6%, while Baotai Co. increased by more than 5%. Other notable stocks include Lichong Group, Baiyin Nonferrous, and Hunan Baiyin, which also saw gains [3][12]. - Major weighted stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining rose over 2% and 3%, respectively, while Shandong Gold increased by over 1% [3][12]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, Huabao Fund identifies three main themes that may drive non-ferrous metal prices higher: 1. "Green Inflation" related to basic metals like copper and aluminum, driven by the growth of new economies such as AI and renewable energy, which are expected to outpace traditional sectors [5][14]. 2. "Anti-Overcapacity" policies affecting lithium and other new energy metals, which may lead to a balance in supply and demand, with lithium prices projected to rise from a base of 90,000-100,000 to 120,000 [15]. 3. "Interest Rate Cuts" impacting precious metals like gold, with expectations of accelerated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, enhancing gold's appeal as a monetary asset [6][15]. Industry Sentiment - Analysts generally believe that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with firms like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing commodity investment enthusiasm [6][16]. Investment Strategy - For investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal sector, a diversified approach through the Huabao ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended, as it covers a broad range of metals, reducing risk compared to investing in single metal sectors [8][17].

晚间，仍在交易的加密货币纷纷飘红。CoinGlass数据显示，近24小时内，加密货币共有近8万人爆仓。随着全球"降息潮"到来，贵金属等资产或成为受益 者。 除美国之外，全球也迎来降息潮，2026年多个国家或将多次降息。 此外，12月中旬至19日，俄罗斯、英国、墨西哥、智利四国央行相继宣布降息，形成新一轮全球降息潮。 | 1小时爆仓 | $352.73万 | 4小时爆仓 | $1043.79万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 念東 | $231.05万 | 念東 | $514.12万 | | 空車 | $121.68万 | 空单 | $529.67万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $3012.92万 | 24小时爆仓 | $1.90亿 | | 参東 | $1129.25万 | 念東 | $7138.96万 | | 空車 | $1883.67万 | 空单 | $1.18亿 | 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着圣诞节临近，多位市场人士对"圣诞节"行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 由于11月美国通胀率远低于经济学家的预测，当月失业率意外上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing consolidation, with A-shares showing a downward trend, while the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), is performing well, indicating strong technical momentum [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) has seen an intraday high increase of 0.77% and is currently up 0.44%, remaining above all moving averages, suggesting strong technical momentum [1] - Major stocks in the non-ferrous sector include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 4%, and several others like Baotai Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyang Co. that increased by more than 3% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to influence the commodity market, with three main lines projected to drive the rise in non-ferrous metal prices: "green inflation" related to basic metals, "anti-involution" policies affecting lithium and other new energy metals, and a potential "interest rate cut wave" benefiting precious metals like gold [2][3] - The "green inflation" narrative suggests that demand for copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to the growth of new industries such as AI and renewable energy, with expectations of price increases driven by supply shortages [2] - The "anti-involution" aspect indicates that lithium prices may rise as excess capacity is cleared and costs increase, with projections for lithium carbonate prices to reach 90,000-100,000, potentially rising to 120,000 by 2026 [3] - The anticipated acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could enhance gold's appeal as a non-replaceable monetary asset, providing opportunities for investment in precious metals [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bullish trend, with various institutions expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [4] - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) is recommended, as it covers a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, thus mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [5] - As of December 16, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) has a total scale of 840 million, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with all three major indices in the red, while the non-ferrous metal sector's leading ETF (159876) is showing resilience and positive momentum, indicating strong technical performance [1][9]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal leading ETF (159876) reached a peak intraday increase of 0.77% and is currently up 0.44%, trading above all moving averages, suggesting strong upward momentum [1][9]. - Major constituents of the ETF include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 4%, and other companies like Baotai Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyang Co. which saw increases of over 3% [1][10]. Future Outlook - According to Huabao Fund, three main themes are expected to drive non-ferrous metal prices upward through 2026: 1. "Green Inflation" related to basic metals like copper and aluminum, driven by the growth of new economies such as AI and renewable energy, is anticipated to create a demand-supply imbalance, supporting price increases [3][11]. 2. "Anti-Overcapacity" policies in sectors like lithium and coal are expected to stabilize supply and demand, with lithium prices projected to rise from a bottom of 90,000-100,000 to 120,000 [3][11]. 3. A potential "Interest Rate Cut Wave" could enhance gold's appeal as a monetary asset, with expectations of price increases for precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [4][12]. Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [4][12]. - The non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) and its linked funds are recommended for investors seeking diversified exposure across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which can help mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [5][14]. ETF Details - As of December 16, the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has a total size of 840 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [7][16].