It's just a bit early to be talking about "what will work in 2026," but I'll offer a preview here. I think it will be a year in which some investors rediscover bonds, and others miss out while licking their AI-stock bubble wounds.I'm Rob Isbitts, founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing. I run the new investing group Sungarden Investors Club, a community dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with humility, discipline, and a non-traditional approach to income investing. I've been charting i ...

This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month. The Ivy Portfolio The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced. The different ass ...

Core Insights - Multiple Bitcoin mining stocks experienced significant gains despite a market downturn triggered by President Trump's tariff announcement on China [1][2] Company Performance - HIVE (Nasdaq: HIVE) led the week with a 40% return from Monday open to Friday close [2] - BitFarms (Nasdaq: BITF) followed with a 31% return [2] - IREN (Nasdaq: IREN) shares nearly doubled, opening at $30.68 on September 10 and closing just under $60 on October 10 [3] Market Trends - The average one-month return for Bitcoin miners was 73.26% [3] - Despite the gains in Bitcoin mining stocks, broader asset classes faced declines, with BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF down 3.7%, and SPY and QQQ ETFs down 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively [2][4]

Core Insights - Despite a strong rebound in US stocks since April, overall investor sentiment remains cautious rather than euphoric [1][2] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the current market rally is driven more by investors "chasing the trend" rather than excessive optimism [1][3] Market Positioning - JPMorgan's unique market sentiment indicator shows that investor positioning has been unexpectedly cautious, even "bearish," since early May [2][3] - This indicator turned negative in early May and peaked negatively by the end of June, indicating that investors found their positions to be more bearish than desired [3][4] Investor Behavior - As of early September, key participants such as hedge funds and speculative investors have not reached high stock exposure levels, reflecting a continued cautious sentiment [5][6] - Macro hedge funds' stock beta remains in a "moderate negative" range, while speculative investors' net long positions in US stock index futures have returned to near long-term median levels [5][6] Multi-Asset Fund Dynamics - The behavior of multi-asset investors shows a complex sentiment, with balanced funds' stock beta falling below average levels in recent weeks [7][8] - Risk parity funds exhibited more volatility, with their stock beta dropping below average in early April, rising above average in early August, and then falling again by the end of September [8]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 Index and its leading ETFs, such as SPY and VOO, have reached all-time highs this year, driven by favorable conditions in the artificial intelligence sector [1] Group 1 - The ongoing tailwinds in the artificial intelligence industry have significantly contributed to the surge in the S&P 500 Index [1]

Core Insights - State Street Investment Management has entered into a multi-year partnership with the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA), becoming the official investment management and exchange-traded fund (ETF) partner of the league [1] Group 1 - The partnership aims to align with the shared vision of both organizations, emphasizing the importance of believing in and investing in the future [1] - The SPY ETF will be highlighted as part of this collaboration, showcasing State Street's commitment to the WNBA [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of the U.S. stock market, with varying degrees of gains and losses depending on market conditions and economic state [1][2]. Index Characteristics - The S&P 500 includes approximately 500 of the largest U.S. stocks, weighted by market capitalization, providing a broad market performance view [2]. - The Nasdaq comprises over 3,000 stocks, heavily focused on the technology sector, making it a benchmark for technology and growth companies [2]. - The Dow consists of 30 blue-chip stocks, weighted by stock prices, offering a more conservative representation of the market [2]. Historical Performance - Since their peaks in 2000, the performance changes of the indexes are as follows: Dow increased by 288.5% nominally and 105.6% in real terms; S&P 500 rose by 322.9% nominally and 123.8% in real terms; Nasdaq grew by 325.0% nominally and 124.9% in real terms [4]. - As of August 29, 2025, the month-over-month changes were: S&P 500 up 1.9%, Dow up 3.2%, and Nasdaq up 1.6% [4]. - Adjusted for inflation, the real month-over-month changes were 1.8% for S&P 500, 3.0% for Dow, and 1.4% for Nasdaq [6]. Long-term Growth - Over the last 10 years, each index has shown significant growth in real terms: S&P 500 up 124%, Dow up 106%, and Nasdaq up 125% [8]. ETF Performance - The SPY ETF, tracking the S&P 500, shows a current real purchasing power of $3,499 from an initial investment of $1,000 at its March 2000 peak, reflecting a real compounded annual return of 5.05% [13]. - The DIA ETF, tracking the Dow, has a current real purchasing power of $3,515 from the same initial investment, with a real compounded annual return of 5.03% [14]. - The QQQ ETF, tracking the Nasdaq-100, has a current real purchasing power of $3,113 from the initial investment, yielding a real compounded annual return of 4.56% [16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global equity and bond markets**, focusing on flows, liquidity, and macroeconomic conditions as of August 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Sentiment**: Macro managers remain cautious in equities, with a notable negative flow of -$6 billion in US equities as of August 2025, contrasting with a positive flow of $5 billion in non-US equities [3][8][48]. 2. **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market shows a positive trend, with $17.8 billion in flows for all bonds, indicating a preference for fixed income over equities [3][8]. 3. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Foreign investors accelerated their buying of US equities, with net purchases reaching $163 billion in June 2025, a significant increase from previous months [48][56]. 4. **Financial Conditions**: Financial conditions remain supportive for growth in both the US and euro area, with a shift towards loosening lending standards reported by banks [26][27][34]. 5. **Equity Valuation Framework**: The long-term fair value framework for the S&P 500 suggests that the market is currently trading approximately 15% above its fair value, indicating that much of the expected earnings improvement is already priced in [60][81][84]. 6. **Real Yield Analysis**: The current level of 10-year real UST yields is considered modestly cheap (10-20 basis points), with forecasts suggesting downward pressure due to expected Fed rate cuts [60][84]. Additional Important Insights 1. **ETF Flows**: There has been a notable divergence in ETF flows, with US-domiciled equity ETFs experiencing flatlining net flows since February 2025, indicating a potential 'buyers' strike' among retail investors [54][55]. 2. **Sector Performance**: The analysis of short interest in SPY and QQQ ETFs indicates a bullish signal for the equity market, as the gap between their short interests is historically associated with market corrections [21][22]. 3. **Credit Creation**: US bank lending growth has accelerated, averaging an annualized pace of around 5.3% year-to-date, which supports the overall credit creation environment [37][39]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic indicators, such as payroll growth and fiscal deficits, in shaping market expectations and financial conditions [60][84]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, investment flows, and economic conditions relevant to the equity and bond markets.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock market and presents trading recommendations based on AI analysis, highlighting the performance of these recommendations against human analyst suggestions [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Trading Recommendations - Buy Lockheed Martin (LMT) due to expected increases in defense spending amid rising military tensions [4]. - Buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) or XLE oil and gas ETF as oil prices are likely to rise due to concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions [4]. - Buy gold, specifically through GLD ETF, as investors typically seek gold as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises [4]. - Short Delta Air Lines (DAL) as the airline is sensitive to fuel costs and traveler sentiment, which may be negatively impacted by rising oil prices and consumer anxiety [4]. - Short the S&P 500 index via SPY ETF or futures to profit from potential risk-averse reactions and overall market declines [4]. Group 2: Human Analyst Recommendations - The human analyst Dan Ives recommended a group of stocks referred to as TAMPON, which includes Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [5]. - Performance results showed that all AI recommendations underperformed, while the TAMPON stocks generally performed well, with notable increases in Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [6][7][8]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Lockheed Martin fell over 2%, Exxon Mobil dropped over 3%, and XLE ETF also decreased more than 3%, indicating incorrect predictions by the AI [6][7]. - GLD ETF declined approximately 1%, while Delta Air Lines saw an increase of nearly 3%, further highlighting the inaccuracies in the AI's recommendations [7]. - In contrast, the TAMPON stocks experienced gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 8% and other stocks in the group also showing positive performance [7][8].