J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 20 August 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Flows & Liquidity Macro managers remain cautious in equities Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile of weekly flows; Min i ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock market and presents trading recommendations based on AI analysis, highlighting the performance of these recommendations against human analyst suggestions [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Trading Recommendations - Buy Lockheed Martin (LMT) due to expected increases in defense spending amid rising military tensions [4]. - Buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) or XLE oil and gas ETF as oil prices are likely to rise due to concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions [4]. - Buy gold, specifically through GLD ETF, as investors typically seek gold as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises [4]. - Short Delta Air Lines (DAL) as the airline is sensitive to fuel costs and traveler sentiment, which may be negatively impacted by rising oil prices and consumer anxiety [4]. - Short the S&P 500 index via SPY ETF or futures to profit from potential risk-averse reactions and overall market declines [4]. Group 2: Human Analyst Recommendations - The human analyst Dan Ives recommended a group of stocks referred to as TAMPON, which includes Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [5]. - Performance results showed that all AI recommendations underperformed, while the TAMPON stocks generally performed well, with notable increases in Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [6][7][8]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Lockheed Martin fell over 2%, Exxon Mobil dropped over 3%, and XLE ETF also decreased more than 3%, indicating incorrect predictions by the AI [6][7]. - GLD ETF declined approximately 1%, while Delta Air Lines saw an increase of nearly 3%, further highlighting the inaccuracies in the AI's recommendations [7]. - In contrast, the TAMPON stocks experienced gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 8% and other stocks in the group also showing positive performance [7][8].