When investors buy the S&P 500, they assume they're getting balanced exposure to America's largest companies. ...

The U.S. economy just delivered a blockbuster third quarter, but traders are already betting that the pace will start to cool sharply.SPY ETF is trading near record highs. Check live chart here.Prediction markets reacted quickly after the stronger-than-expected growth data, raising wagers on slower growth in the fourth quarter and potentially into 2026 despite the headline surprise.Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter of 2025, crushing expectations of 3.3% and accel ...

Core Insights - The largest stocks in the US market are not only highly regarded globally but also represent the market itself, indicating a shift in the importance of stock-picking strategies [1] Group 1 - The founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing emphasizes a non-traditional approach to income investing, focusing on humility and discipline in navigating the modern investment climate [1] - The investment group aims to teach subscribers how to interpret market signals effectively [1]

It's just a bit early to be talking about "what will work in 2026," but I'll offer a preview here. I think it will be a year in which some investors rediscover bonds, and others miss out while licking their AI-stock bubble wounds.I'm Rob Isbitts, founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing. I run the new investing group Sungarden Investors Club, a community dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with humility, discipline, and a non-traditional approach to income investing. I've been charting i ...

Core Insights - The article provides an update on the performance of the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio, highlighting that all five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio remain in an "invest" position as of the end of October [5][7][14]. Ivy Portfolio Overview - The Ivy Portfolio is constructed using an asset allocation strategy similar to that of Harvard and Yale endowment funds, consisting of five ETFs that cover various asset classes [2]. - The strategy involves creating a diversified portfolio with equal weight across asset classes, calculating a 10-month moving average for each fund, and making buy/sell decisions based on whether the fund closes above or below this average [3]. Ivy Portfolio Performance - At the end of October, none of the five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio closed below their 10-month or 12-month simple moving averages, indicating a continued "invest" position [5][7]. - The percentage above or below the moving average for each fund is tracked, with funds within 2% of the signal highlighted for potential position reversals [6]. S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 closed October with a monthly gain of 2.3%, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, and closed 11.0% above its 10-month simple moving average [8][10]. - The index also closed 11.6% above its 12-month simple moving average, maintaining an "invest" position for six straight months [12]. Moving Averages Strategy - Utilizing a moving average strategy can effectively manage risks associated with bear markets, where holding the index is advised when it closes above the moving average and moving to cash when it closes below [9]. - The article illustrates that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average strategy would have allowed participation in most upside movements since 1995 while significantly reducing losses [10][15]. Psychological Factors - The article discusses the psychology behind momentum signals, noting that human behavior often leads to buying during market uptrends and selling during downturns, which can create cycles of buying and selling momentum [16]. Implementation Considerations - The moving average strategy is most effective when applied to specific investments rather than broad indices, as signals may differ due to factors like dividend reinvestment [17]. - The strategy is recommended for use in tax-advantaged accounts with low-cost brokerage services to maximize gains [18].

Core Insights - Multiple Bitcoin mining stocks experienced significant gains despite a market downturn triggered by President Trump's tariff announcement on China [1][2] Company Performance - HIVE (Nasdaq: HIVE) led the week with a 40% return from Monday open to Friday close [2] - BitFarms (Nasdaq: BITF) followed with a 31% return [2] - IREN (Nasdaq: IREN) shares nearly doubled, opening at $30.68 on September 10 and closing just under $60 on October 10 [3] Market Trends - The average one-month return for Bitcoin miners was 73.26% [3] - Despite the gains in Bitcoin mining stocks, broader asset classes faced declines, with BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF down 3.7%, and SPY and QQQ ETFs down 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively [2][4]

Core Insights - Despite a strong rebound in US stocks since April, overall investor sentiment remains cautious rather than euphoric [1][2] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the current market rally is driven more by investors "chasing the trend" rather than excessive optimism [1][3] Market Positioning - JPMorgan's unique market sentiment indicator shows that investor positioning has been unexpectedly cautious, even "bearish," since early May [2][3] - This indicator turned negative in early May and peaked negatively by the end of June, indicating that investors found their positions to be more bearish than desired [3][4] Investor Behavior - As of early September, key participants such as hedge funds and speculative investors have not reached high stock exposure levels, reflecting a continued cautious sentiment [5][6] - Macro hedge funds' stock beta remains in a "moderate negative" range, while speculative investors' net long positions in US stock index futures have returned to near long-term median levels [5][6] Multi-Asset Fund Dynamics - The behavior of multi-asset investors shows a complex sentiment, with balanced funds' stock beta falling below average levels in recent weeks [7][8] - Risk parity funds exhibited more volatility, with their stock beta dropping below average in early April, rising above average in early August, and then falling again by the end of September [8]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 Index and its leading ETFs, such as SPY and VOO, have reached all-time highs this year, driven by favorable conditions in the artificial intelligence sector [1] Group 1 - The ongoing tailwinds in the artificial intelligence industry have significantly contributed to the surge in the S&P 500 Index [1]

Core Insights - State Street Investment Management has entered into a multi-year partnership with the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA), becoming the official investment management and exchange-traded fund (ETF) partner of the league [1] Group 1 - The partnership aims to align with the shared vision of both organizations, emphasizing the importance of believing in and investing in the future [1] - The SPY ETF will be highlighted as part of this collaboration, showcasing State Street's commitment to the WNBA [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite are key stock market indexes that reflect the performance of the U.S. stock market, with varying degrees of gains and losses depending on market conditions and economic state [1][2]. Index Characteristics - The S&P 500 includes approximately 500 of the largest U.S. stocks, weighted by market capitalization, providing a broad market performance view [2]. - The Nasdaq comprises over 3,000 stocks, heavily focused on the technology sector, making it a benchmark for technology and growth companies [2]. - The Dow consists of 30 blue-chip stocks, weighted by stock prices, offering a more conservative representation of the market [2]. Historical Performance - Since their peaks in 2000, the performance changes of the indexes are as follows: Dow increased by 288.5% nominally and 105.6% in real terms; S&P 500 rose by 322.9% nominally and 123.8% in real terms; Nasdaq grew by 325.0% nominally and 124.9% in real terms [4]. - As of August 29, 2025, the month-over-month changes were: S&P 500 up 1.9%, Dow up 3.2%, and Nasdaq up 1.6% [4]. - Adjusted for inflation, the real month-over-month changes were 1.8% for S&P 500, 3.0% for Dow, and 1.4% for Nasdaq [6]. Long-term Growth - Over the last 10 years, each index has shown significant growth in real terms: S&P 500 up 124%, Dow up 106%, and Nasdaq up 125% [8]. ETF Performance - The SPY ETF, tracking the S&P 500, shows a current real purchasing power of $3,499 from an initial investment of $1,000 at its March 2000 peak, reflecting a real compounded annual return of 5.05% [13]. - The DIA ETF, tracking the Dow, has a current real purchasing power of $3,515 from the same initial investment, with a real compounded annual return of 5.03% [14]. - The QQQ ETF, tracking the Nasdaq-100, has a current real purchasing power of $3,113 from the initial investment, yielding a real compounded annual return of 4.56% [16].