2月13日，周四交易时段内，贵金属市场遭遇了突如其来的猛烈抛压。OEXN 观察到，金银价格在中午 时分双双大幅下挫，且这一波动呈现出明显的联动性：铂金、钯金、铜、美国主要股指以及原油价格几 乎在同一时刻坠入日内低谷，而避险性质的美债则同步飙升至日内高点。 针对这一缺乏明确基本面消息驱动的异动，这极有可能是由大型投行或对冲基金的调仓行为引发的。 OEXN 认为，在某些市场面临重压时，机构可能选择集中卸下庞大的多头头寸，这种连锁反应在多个 流动性敏感的市场中制造了某种形式的"闪崩"。截至盘中，4月黄金期货下跌120.00美元至4980.00美 元，而3月白银则录得7.75美元的跌幅，报76.20美元。 除了机构抛售的猜测外，周五即将公布的1月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告也是悬在市场头上的达摩克 利斯之剑。市场中甚至传出了CPI数据意外爆表的流言。虽然 OEXN 表示目前该传言仍属捕风捉影，但 交易员们在重磅数据公布前通过平仓来调整仓位的意愿显著增强。目前分析师对1月CPI同比增速的共 识预期为2.5%，与前值持平。 与此同时，外部市场的走向也并不乐观。美元指数的温和反弹与原油价格在62.75美元附近的走低，进 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, specifically gold and silver, experienced a decline in futures prices ahead of the January jobs report, breaking their recent winning streaks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures closed down 0.9% at $5,003.80 per troy ounce, remaining just above the $5,000 mark [1] - Silver futures fell 2.3% to $80.218 per ounce, significantly lower than its record high reached in January [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release payroll data that was delayed due to a partial government shutdown [1] - A weaker than expected jobs report could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates, following a flat retail sales report for December [1] Group 3: Implications for Precious Metals - An eventual rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide support for precious metals, potentially reversing the current downward trend [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility this week, with multiple major products showing sharp fluctuations, driven by supply-demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced substantial corrections, while agricultural products like soybean meal and soybean oil continued to show weakness [1] - Coking coal strengthened due to expectations of production cuts in Indonesia, while lithium carbonate continued its downward trend under pressure from inventory changes and the end of pre-holiday stocking [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The precious metals market was the most volatile sector this week, with gold futures dropping over 4% and silver plummeting more than 27%, marking the largest weekly decline of the year [2] - This correction was primarily due to a rapid retreat of risk aversion, as previous premiums driven by Middle Eastern tensions and global central bank gold purchases quickly dissipated following signs of easing in US-Iran relations [2] - Investors rushed to close their risk-hedging positions, pushing prices downward, while a strengthening US dollar further pressured dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices fell as geopolitical risks eased, with Shanghai aluminum futures coming under downward pressure as concerns over regional supply diminished [3] - The Middle East accounts for nearly 10% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the actual supply disruption risk is lower than market expectations due to differences in production structures and logistics [3] - As tensions cooled, the "risk premium" in aluminum prices was gradually erased, although domestic alumina maintenance led to short-term supply tightening [3] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector remained weak, with soybean meal and soybean oil experiencing significant declines, primarily due to reinforced expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America [4] - The USDA's January report raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 178 million tons, a record high, with some institutions estimating it could reach 182 million tons [4] - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, significantly ahead of last year's pace, leading to increased concerns about the influx of new season soybeans [4] Group 5: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures continued their downward trend, with market logic returning to fundamentals [5] - Weekly data showed a decrease in social inventory by 1,414 tons, but a clear structural divergence was evident, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,007 tons while upstream decreased by 831 tons [5] - The market reflected that terminal demand had not effectively recovered, and with pre-holiday stocking largely completed, the market's pricing for first-quarter destocking expectations was nearly finalized [5]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices experienced a significant decline on February 5, with gold futures for April 2026 dropping by $188.3 to close at $4,798.1 per ounce, marking a decrease of 3.75% [1] - Silver prices also fell sharply, with March futures down $17.415 to $70.350 per ounce, a decline of 19.84% [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar index, which rose by 0.21% to 97.824, was influenced by better-than-expected US economic data and hawkish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next chair, Kevin Walsh [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that despite the current neutral monetary policy stance from global central banks, a slowdown in global economic activity may lead to interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which could support global gold prices [2]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a sudden drop in early trading on February 5, with domestic gold futures falling over 3% to a low of 1077.02 CNY per gram and silver futures dropping over 18% to a low of 18500 CNY per kilogram [1] - On the international front, COMEX gold futures fell over 3% to a low of 4805 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped over 13% to a low of 73.415 USD per ounce [2] - The domestic A-share precious metals sector saw significant declines, with companies like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit down, and Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 14% at one point [6] Group 2 - The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down for the fourth consecutive day, with the latest premium rate at 37.13% [4] - Multiple domestic gold and jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of gold jewelry, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1558 CNY per gram, down 42 CNY from the previous day [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced pressure and fluctuations on February 4, with gold prices briefly surpassing the $5000 mark before retreating [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of the close on February 4, the most actively traded April 2026 gold futures rose by $15.9, settling at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - During the trading session, gold prices peaked at $5113.9 per ounce but fell significantly during the afternoon, hitting a low of $4867.7 per ounce [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The slight rebound of the US dollar index exerted pressure on the precious metals market, with the index rising by 0.19% to close at 97.616 [1] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - The World Gold Council announced that central banks purchased 19 tons of gold through the International Monetary Fund and other public data channels in December 2025, with the total net purchases for 2025 reaching 328 tons, down from the record 345 tons in 2024 [1] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The March silver futures price increased by 285 cents, closing at $87.765 per ounce, marking a 3.36% rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The New York precious metals prices rebounded across the board on February 3, driven by bargain buying, with gold and silver prices experiencing significant increases [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The most actively traded April 2026 gold futures price rose by $289.6, closing at $4,970.5 per ounce, marking a 6.19% increase [1] - The interest in precious metals was supported by a slight decline in the three major U.S. stock indices [1] - A weaker U.S. dollar index and rising crude oil prices also contributed positively to the rebound in precious metals [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The March delivery silver futures price increased by 565 cents, closing at $84.915 per ounce, reflecting a 7.13% rise [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. Labor Department will pause data collection, processing, and publication due to a partial government shutdown, affecting the release schedule of key employment data [1] - The dollar index fell by 0.21%, ending the day at 97.434 [1]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on Gold Futures, Copper Futures, Silver Futures, and the State Street® SPDR® S&P® Metals & Mining ETF [1] Group 1: Gold Futures - Gold Futures are analyzed in terms of price movements and market trends, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - The article highlights recent fluctuations in gold prices, which may impact investor sentiment and market strategies [1] Group 2: Copper Futures - Copper Futures are discussed with emphasis on supply-demand dynamics and their implications for pricing [1] - The analysis suggests that changes in industrial demand could significantly affect copper market performance [1] Group 3: Silver Futures - Silver Futures are examined, noting their correlation with gold prices and industrial usage [1] - The article points out that silver's price trends may reflect broader economic conditions and investor behavior [1] Group 4: Metals & Mining ETF - The State Street® SPDR® S&P® Metals & Mining ETF is evaluated for its performance relative to underlying metal prices [1] - The ETF's composition and market trends are discussed, providing insights into investment strategies within the metals and mining sector [1]

Group 1 - The silver market is experiencing a significant pullback due to reduced concerns over a U.S. government shutdown and a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, despite a monthly gain exceeding 60%, potentially marking the best monthly performance in history [1] - Hedge funds and large investors have engaged in substantial profit-taking in December, missing out on the recent surge in silver prices, with personal investors contributing a record net inflow of $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs from mid-December to mid-January [1] - The CFTC report indicates that net long positions in silver futures are approximately 11,326 contracts, down from about 50,000 contracts in June of the previous year, suggesting that institutional investors feel left behind in the current market dynamics [2] Group 2 - Current selling pressure in the silver market may extend towards two upward trend lines, with the first line projected to reach $100.46 and the second line expected to rise to $86.74 by Friday [3] - A breakthrough above $121.67 in silver prices could invalidate the current reversal pattern, leading to an upward shift in the previous retracement area, necessitating close monitoring of the intersection points of trend lines and retracement areas for stronger support [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 12% drop in gold prices and 33% decline in silver prices was primarily driven by mechanical factors related to overleveraged cryptocurrency positions rather than fundamental changes in the precious metals market [1][2][21]. Group 1: Causes of the Drop - A significant $1.68 billion wave of cryptocurrency margin calls triggered forced selling across various markets, leading to a chain reaction that affected gold and silver prices [2][4]. - Regulatory actions, including margin requirement increases by the CME Group and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, contributed to the selling pressure in precious metals [10][12]. - The mechanics of trading algorithms and portfolio margin accounts exacerbated the situation, forcing traders to liquidate positions in gold and silver to cover losses in cryptocurrencies [5][8][15]. Group 2: Impact of the Drop - Approximately 79% of the gold price decline was attributed to mechanical factors, with only 21% reflecting genuine market re-evaluation based on Federal Reserve policy [21][24]. - The forced liquidation of overleveraged positions resulted in a temporary market dysfunction, creating potential investment opportunities for long-term buyers [24][25]. - The market structure breakdown was evident in the ETF market, where the iShares Silver Trust traded at a significant premium, indicating a lack of liquidity and market maker participation [18][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The crash has reset the market, removing over-extended traders and allowing for a more stable trading environment moving forward [23][25]. - Long-term demand for precious metals remains strong, with countries like Poland and China continuing to increase their reserves [23]. - The next rally in precious metals is expected to be driven by fundamental demand rather than speculative trading, indicating a healthier market evolution [23].