ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 the first 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/11/7 | 4007. 42 | 48. 71 | 4015. 20 | 48. 51 | 921.26 | 11484. 00 | 918. 00 | 11481.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2 ...

11月6日贵金属期货价格行情 截止北京时间11月5日，据基差数据显示：黄金、白银品种合约出现'期现倒挂'(现货价格高于期货价格) 现象。 商品名称 现货价格 合约 期货价格 基差 基差率 黄金 914.42 2512 910.6 3.82 0.42% 白银 11323 2512 11204 119 1.05% 11月6日，国内期市贵金属板块全线上行。截止目前，沪金主力合约报916.28元/克，涨幅0.62%；沪银 主力合约报11368.00元/千克，涨幅1.46%。 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金 | 913.50 | 912.26 | 910.60 | | 沪银 | 11297.00 | 11276.00 | 11204.00 | 11月5日，贵金属商品仓单日报数据显示： 白银期货仓单656170千克，环比上个交易日减少1257千克； 黄金期货仓单87816千克，环比上个交易日增加801千克； 备注：基差=现货价格-期货价格。 ...

Market Analysis by covering: Gold Spot US Dollar, Gold Futures, Silver Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Core Insights - The domestic commodity market showed mixed trends, with apples rising nearly 4% while gold and silver fell over 4% and 3% respectively [1][4] Group 1: Apple Market - Apple futures surged by 3.96%, reaching a new high since November 2023, driven by tightening supply of quality apples as they enter storage [2] - The main contract for apples has seen a significant increase in open interest, with a cumulative rise of over 35,000 contracts in the last four trading days [2] - Analysts suggest that while the short-term fundamentals support higher prices, apples priced above 9,000 yuan/ton may face seasonal demand challenges [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Prices - U.S. soybean prices hit $11 per bushel, the highest since July last year, leading to increases in both soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices, which rose by 2.39% and 1.40% respectively [3] - The rise in meal prices is primarily supported by higher import costs for U.S. soybeans, which have reached a five-month high [3] - Despite the price increases, the overall supply of oilseeds remains ample, and domestic soybean crushing levels are high, which may limit further demand for protein meals [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with Shanghai gold falling over 4% and silver over 3%, attributed to improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade discussions [4] - Citigroup has revised its short-term gold price target down from $4,000 to $3,800, indicating a bearish outlook for gold prices in the near term [4] - The future performance of gold is contingent on key factors such as potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the strength of the U.S. economy [4] Group 4: Other Commodities - Iron ore prices increased by nearly 2% due to reduced port inventories despite increased overseas shipments [3] - Other commodities like synthetic rubber, palm oil, and copper also saw declines, with synthetic rubber dropping over 2% and several others falling more than 1% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The initial consensus reached in the China-US-Malaysia economic and trade consultations has boosted market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, the lower-than-expected US CPI in October has strengthened the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the ongoing US government shutdown has provided support for precious metal prices [5][6]. - In the short term, gold is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For silver, the price difference between London silver and New York silver has been repaired to near par, and there is a risk of short - term adjustment in silver prices. In the long - term, the bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.3% to $4078.42 per ounce, London silver spot remained unchanged at $48.32 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.4% to $4092.20 per ounce, CONEX silver increased by 0.7% to $48.34 per ounce, AU2512 decreased by 0.4% to 934.14 yuan per gram, AG2512 remained unchanged at 11332 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.4% to 932.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) increased by 0.6% to 11376 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price differences, from October 24 to 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 20.8% to - 1.56 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 309.5% to 44 yuan per kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) increased by 4.2% to 3.16 yuan per gram, the silver domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) decreased by 6.0% to - 945 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 0.4% to 82.43, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1% to 84.66, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 148.9% to 6.62 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 476.9% to 75 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Position Data - As of October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.52% to 1046.93 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.32% to 15419.8141 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position increased by 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of CONEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position decreased by 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 24 to 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 2.61% to 647643 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.21% to 38877087 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.21% to 496946989 ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Data - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.07% to 98.94, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.01% to 4.02%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.50% to 61.44 dollars per barrel, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.09, the VIX decreased by 5.38% to 16.37, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.79% to 6791.69 [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.24% to 934.14 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.47% to 11394 yuan per kilogram [5].

Market Overview - Stock futures are relatively calm at the start of the day, while metals are experiencing significant sell-offs, with gold down 3.3% and silver down 4.8% [2][3] - Bitcoin is also down 1.8%, indicating volatility in the metals market [3] - The dollar remains flat in the $98 range, and yields have decreased to 3.9%, while crude oil prices are under $57.5 [4] Upcoming Earnings and Economic Events - A major earnings report from a big gold miner, Mont Mining, is expected later in the week [3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates in about eight days, with a 95% chance of this occurring [6] - Significant earnings reports from major tech companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are scheduled for the same period [6][7] Banking Sector Insights - Regional banks are showing strong earnings, and there is a potential for increased mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector due to a more business-friendly administration [11] - Despite recent volatility, the banking sector is recovering well, with major banks reporting good earnings [10][11] Warner Brothers Update - Warner Brothers Discovery's stock is up about 8% following news of a potential merger bid from David Ellison [12] - The company has reportedly initiated a sale process, indicating strategic options are being reviewed [13]

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" service, which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory content [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He studied journalism and economics at Iowa State University, which supports his expertise in market analysis [2] - Daily updates and technical analysis are provided by Wyckoff on Kitco.com, indicating his active engagement in market commentary [3]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis covering key commodities including Gold Spot US Dollar, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, and Crude Oil WTI Futures [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold Spot prices are influenced by fluctuations in the US Dollar, impacting investor sentiment and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Gold Futures show a trend of increasing prices, indicating a bullish outlook among investors [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver Futures are experiencing volatility, with price movements reflecting broader market trends and economic indicators [1] - The demand for silver is driven by both industrial applications and investment purposes, contributing to its price dynamics [1] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - Crude Oil WTI Futures are subject to geopolitical factors and supply-demand imbalances, affecting pricing strategies [1] - Recent trends indicate a potential increase in crude oil prices due to tightening supply conditions [1]

Core Insights - The analysis focuses on exploiting recurring intraday movements in the metals futures markets, specifically Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum, which are characterized by high liquidity and wide circulation [1][2] - The strategy employed is based on "bias" strategies that capitalize on market behaviors that tend to repeat during specific time frames, rather than relying on technical indicators [2][4] Market Analysis - The gold market serves as the benchmark for the entire metals sector, with the analysis indicating a consistent pattern of weakness during night hours followed by a rebound in the afternoon [6][4] - The operational rules for the strategy involve entering a long position at 10:00 a.m. and a short position at 2:00 a.m. the following day, with trades alternating between long and short positions [7][10] Performance Results - The backtest results for the bias trading strategy on Gold show a total of 8,071 trades, with a winning percentage of 50.96% and an average winning trade of $784.49 [12] - The strategy's performance is also tested on Silver, Platinum, and Copper, revealing that similar bias patterns are present across these metals, confirming the hypothesis of persistent patterns in the sector [14][13] Future Development - The analysis suggests potential improvements to the bias trading system, including the application of operational filters and the introduction of stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms to enhance risk management [18][20] - Multi-asset validation is emphasized as a crucial aspect of the strategy, as testing across related markets helps to distinguish genuine trading edges from random results [22] Conclusion - Intraday biases present valuable operational insights and opportunities for developing automated trading systems, with the goal of achieving a sufficiently large average trade to make the strategy viable for live trading [24]

Group 1 - The analysis indicates that, despite expectations for a new round of interest rate cuts in the U.S., futures funds have begun to increase short positions in metals, which may explain the limited rise in metal prices recently [1][5][14] - As of September 16, 2023, the net long position in COMEX gold decreased by 3.6% to 499 tons, marking the 102nd consecutive week of net long positions [2][5] - The net long position in COMEX silver increased by 5% to 5,930 tons, continuing a streak of 82 weeks of net long positions, with silver prices rising 47.2% year-to-date [5][8] Group 2 - The net long position in platinum increased by 2% to 23 tons, while palladium remains in a net short position of 15 tons, indicating ongoing challenges for other precious metals [6][10] - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has dropped 2.7% to 12.985X, reflecting a trend where mining stocks have underperformed compared to physical gold [19][26] - The market anticipates a 91.9% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in October, with expectations for a total of three rate cuts this year, which could influence commodity investments, particularly in gold [24][25] Group 3 - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was reported at 85.509, down 1.0% week-over-week, indicating a slight shift in market dynamics [20][23] - The analysis suggests that the current economic environment may lead to stagflation, prompting investments in commodities and defensive stocks, while bonds and growth stocks may face pressure [25][27] - The ongoing focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors is influencing investment strategies, with a notable shift away from traditional mining and oil companies [19][26]