Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: March 31, 2026 [5] - Research Center: Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Inner and Outer Disk Gold and Silver Prices - On March 30, 2026, London Gold Spot was $4528.84/oz, London Silver Spot was $70.30/oz, COMEX Gold was $4557.00/oz, COMEX Silver was $70.36/oz, AU2604 was 1011.02 yuan/g, AG2604 was 17756 yuan/kg, AU (T+D) was 1010.12 yuan/g, and AG (T+D) was 17682 yuan/kg [5] - Compared with March 27, 2026, the price increases were 1.6%, 0.7%, 2.3%, 0.7%, 1.6%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.2% respectively [5] Price Difference/Ratio Tracking - On March 30, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -0.9 yuan/g, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was -74 yuan/kg, the gold inner - outer disk (TD - London) price difference was 2.19 yuan/g, the silver inner - outer disk (TD - London) price difference was 2 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 56.94, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 64.77, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.86 yuan/g, and AG2604 - 2602 was -49 yuan/kg [5] - Compared with March 27, 2026, the price difference increases were 650.0%, -10.8%, -41.7%, -104.8%, 0.5%, 1.6%, 10.9%, and -29.0% respectively [5] Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - As of March 27, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.7 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15409.46251 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 220861 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 52534 contracts, the net long position was 168327 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 33938 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9265 contracts, and the net long position was 24673 contracts [5] - Compared with March 26, 2026, the position increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 2.27%, -6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] Inventory Data - On March 30, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory was 374427 kg. On March 27, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31713528 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 328297364 troy ounces [5] - Compared with the previous period, the inventory increases were 0.00%, 0.71%, -0.60%, and -0.08% respectively [5] Group 4: Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On March 30, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92. On March 27, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.17, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the S&P 500 VIX was 31.05, and the NYWEX crude oil was 101.18 [5] - Compared with the previous period, the increases were 0.12%, 0.26%, -2.02%, 0.45%, 13.16%, -1.67%, and 7.88% respectively [5] Group 5: Market Analysis Market Review - On March 30, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.28% to 1014.28 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.8% to 17707 yuan/kg [5] Impact Analysis - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in March dropped to 53.3, highlighting consumers' concerns about geopolitical conflicts. The market trading logic is gradually shifting from inflation to stagflation, and the US Treasury yields have fallen from high levels, which supports the precious metals prices. However, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains highly uncertain, and the continuous geopolitical conflict - related news fluctuates the market. Overall, Iran's attitude remains tough, the US is still increasing troops in the Middle East, and the risk of ground - war intervention is rising. The strong US dollar index and high crude oil prices may suppress the precious metals prices [5] Future Market Analysis - In the short term, with the repeated market news and geopolitical uncertainties, the precious metals prices are expected to fluctuate within a range but are likely to gradually bottom out. In the long term, the supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainties, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metals market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market panic has eased due to the news of the US-Iran negotiation, which has boosted the precious metal prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the precious metal prices lack a clear upward drive in the short term and may fluctuate. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support the precious metal prices. Strategies can focus on long - term long - position allocation opportunities [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 24, 2026, London gold spot was at $4411.48 per ounce, London silver spot was at $69.36 per ounce, COMEX gold was at $4413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $69.50 per ounce. Compared with March 23, the prices of gold and silver increased, with gold rising by about 4.7% and silver rising by about 10.6% [5]. - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also increased. For example, AU2604 was at 977.28 yuan per gram, with a 4.0% increase, and AG2604 was at 17195.00 yuan per kilogram, with a 10.9% increase [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio - The spread and ratio of gold and silver in different markets changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 0.27 yuan per gram on March 24, with a - 126.7% change compared with March 23. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.84 on March 24, with a - 6.3% change [5]. 3. Position Data - As of March 23, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.7 tons, with a - 0.41% change compared with March 20. The non - commercial long - position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, with a 0.24% change [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On March 24, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, with a 0.00% change compared with March 23. The COMEX silver inventory on March 23 was 332090493 troy ounces, with a - 0.18% change compared with March 20 [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 24, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, with a - 0.14% change compared with March 23. The US dollar index on March 23 was 99.16, with a - 0.35% change compared with March 20 [5]. 6. Market Review - On March 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.57% to 977.28 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.51% to 17085 yuan per kilogram [5]. 7. Impact Analysis - The market panic has eased due to the news of the US - Iran negotiation, which has boosted the precious metal prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the precious metal prices lack a clear upward drive in the short term and may fluctuate [6]. 8. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the market panic eases, the precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate in position rotation. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support the precious metal prices. Strategies can focus on long - term long - position allocation opportunities [6].

Core Insights - Gold futures are trading above $5,000 an ounce due to a combination of structural factors, including persistent fiscal dominance, geopolitical fragmentation, and central bank liquidity support [6][36][24] Gold Market Performance - In February, spot gold rose by $384.70 per ounce (7.86%) to close at $5,279.73, marking an all-time monthly closing high [7][4] - The increase in gold prices followed a sharp sell-off in January, indicating a recovery trend rather than a fundamental deterioration [7][6] - Gold's price movements reflect a long-term bullish trend, with significant upside shocks since late 2023 [8][35] Monetary Policy and Gold - The Federal Reserve's structural constraints limit its ability to reduce balance-sheet liquidity, which supports gold prices [6][15] - The incoming Fed leadership is expected to maintain a flexible monetary regime that is accommodative for gold, as it prioritizes market stability over aggressive tightening [14][24] - The Fed's recent balance sheet growth, framed as reserve management, reinforces the perception that a return to a scarce-reserves regime is unlikely [17][18] China's Role in Gold Demand - China continues to expand its gold reserves as part of its macroeconomic strategy, managing domestic debt and currency stability [25][34] - The People's Bank of China has been accumulating gold to diversify away from dollar-centric reserves, enhancing confidence in its sovereign balance sheet [28][29] - Gold serves as a politically acceptable asset for China, allowing for balance sheet management without triggering currency instability [30][34] Long-term Drivers of Gold - Key long-term drivers for gold include high government debt levels, continued diversification of global reserves away from the U.S. dollar, and suppressed real returns on cash and sovereign bonds [36][37][40] - Gold's role as a store of value is reinforced by structural forces that are unlikely to change significantly due to short-term market volatility [42][51] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver also reached an all-time monthly closing high of $93.79 in February, with ongoing volatility influenced by options markets and trading flows [43][45] - The divergence between futures and options markets indicates a shift in how traders are expressing their market positions, with increased reliance on options [46][49] - Despite short-term volatility, the fundamental drivers supporting silver remain strong, including monetary uncertainty and fiscal dominance [45][51]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.8% to 1150 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.11% to 22,758 yuan/kilogram [4][5] - Trump said that the US military action against Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and some sanctions would be lifted to calm international oil prices. This led to sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices, a significant decline from the high, easing inflation concerns, weakening the US dollar index, and boosting the rebound of precious metal prices, especially silver with low inventory [5] - In the short term, factors such as geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and stagflation risks will continue to affect the precious metal market, but prices are expected to gradually rise. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - **内外盘金/银15点价格跟踪**: On March 10, 2026, London gold spot was 5174.54 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 88.85 dollars/ounce, etc. Compared with March 9, gold prices rose by 1.5% - 1.6%, and silver prices rose by 6.4% - 6.7% [4] - **价差/比价跟踪**: On March 10, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4.46 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 532 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 9, the price difference of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 85.8%, and that of silver increased by 16.4% [4] 2. Position Data - As of March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1070.71 tons on March 9, down 0.24% from March 6. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 213,752 contracts, up 0.99% [4] 3. Inventory Data - On March 10, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104,934 kilograms, unchanged from March 9. The SHFE silver inventory was 259,178 kilograms, up 2.29% [4] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 10, 2026, the US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.90, down 0.25% from March 9. The US dollar index was 98.71 on March 9, down 0.24% from March 6 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, factors such as geopolitical games, inflation concerns, stagflation risks, and central bank gold purchases will continue to impact the precious metals market. After the market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest - rate cut expectations", if the market shifts to trading "stagflation", precious metal prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5][6]. - In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On March 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.89% to 1,140.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.38% to 21,740 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3.2 Impact Analysis - Positive factors: The potential further escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increasing the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the initial emergence of the US private - credit crisis risk, and the People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases for 16 consecutive months in February, which can ease the concerns of the previous continuous outflows of gold ETFs and support the gold price. For silver, the continuous decline in inventory limits the downside space of silver prices [5]. - Negative factors: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict drives up energy prices, increasing inflation risks, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus suppressing precious metal prices. Geopolitical and inflation risks may suppress silver demand and be negative for its industrial attributes [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Price**: On March 6, London gold spot was at $5,117.08/ounce, London silver spot was at $84.38/ounce, COMEX gold was at $5,125.40/ounce, COMEX silver was at $84.65/ounce, AU2604 was at 1,140.8 yuan/gram, AG2604 was at 21,740 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 1,138.7 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 21,380 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 5, the price of gold generally decreased by about 1.0%, and the price of silver generally increased by about 1.3% [4]. - **Spread**: On March 6, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.1 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 360 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.12 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 195 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.47, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 60.55, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.34 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 207 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 5, the change rates of spreads varied, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. 3.4 Position Data - On March 6, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,073.32 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15,761.62327 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 213,752 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 53,607 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 160,145 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 34,226 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 10,888 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 23,338 contracts. Compared with March 5, most positions increased [4]. 3.5 Inventory Data - On March 6, the SHFE gold inventory was 105,033 kilograms (unchanged from March 5), the SHFE silver inventory was 255,952 kilograms (down 6.15% from March 5), the COMEX gold inventory was 33,081,878 troy ounces (down 0.06% from March 5), and the COMEX silver inventory was 349,145,895 troy ounces (down 0.63% from March 5) [4]. 3.6 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On March 6, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90 (up 0.03% from March 5), the US dollar index was 98.96 (down 0.09% from March 5), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (down 0.28% from March 5), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15% (up 0.48% from March 5), the VIX was 29.49 (up 24.17% from March 5), the S&P 500 was 6,740.02 (down 1.33% from March 5), and NYWEX crude oil was $91.27 (up 15.72% from March 5) [4].

Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with all parties taking a tough stance. Iran is prepared for a US ground invasion and rejects restarting negotiations. The US is increasing resources to support the war for at least 100 days. 24 US states are suing to block new tariff measures, and Trump has imposed a 15% tariff on most global products [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,153.56 yuan/gram and closed at 1,152.00 yuan/gram, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,135.48 yuan/gram, a 1.43% drop from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21,700.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,639.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.98% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 412,856 lots, and the open interest was 143,059 lots. The night session closed at 21,305 yuan/kilogram, a 1.54% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.566%, also unchanged [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On March 5, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 769 lots and short positions decreased by 377 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 327,375 lots, a change of -44.15% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 4,100 lots and short positions decreased by 4,940 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,190,686 lots, a change of -16.91% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.04 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,948 tons, a decrease of 33 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 6.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 697.42 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.24, a change of 0.90% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.73, a change of -7.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 50,766 kilograms, a change of -45.80% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 431,928 kilograms, a change of -20.99% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly decrease. It is expected that the gold price will be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Silver is experiencing a price decline along with gold. Due to market liquidity issues, the price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 22,000 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar will continue to impact the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 5, 2026, London gold spot was $5166.38 per ounce, London silver spot was $83.34 per ounce, COMEX gold was $5173.50 per ounce, COMEX silver was $83.54 per ounce, AU2604 was 1152 yuan per gram, AG2604 was 21639 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1149 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) was 21060 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 4, 2026, the price of London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX silver decreased by 1.8%, AU2604 decreased by 0.1%, AG2604 decreased by 1.0%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.9% [4] 2. Spread/Ratio - On March 5, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 579 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.77 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 148 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 53.24, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 61.93, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.06 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 270 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 4, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread increased by 74.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread increased by 47.0%, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) decreased by 24.4%, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by 27.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.9%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 1.8%, AU2604 - 2602 decreased by 2.5%, and AG2604 - 2602 decreased by 2.2% [4] 3. Position Data - As of March 4, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1081.04 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15947.57316 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 211649 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 52472 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159177 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 32500 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 10240 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 22260 contracts. Compared with March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 1.64%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.21%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold decreased by 0.84%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 1.95%, the non - commercial net long position decreased by 0.46%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver decreased by 11.27%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 18.88%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 7.26% [4] 4. Inventory Data - On March 5, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105033 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 272721 kilograms. Compared with March 4, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.50%. On March 4, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33040485 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 352219872 troy ounces. Compared with March 3, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.83% [4] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 5, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 4, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.09%, the VIX was 21.15, the S&P 500 was 6869.50, and NYWEX crude oil was $76.11. Compared with March 4, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.17%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.27%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.85%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.74%, the VIX decreased by 10.27%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 1.75% [4] 6. Market Review - On March 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.46% to 1152 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.96% to 21639 yuan per kilogram [4] 7. Impact Analysis - The market's concerns about inflation risks have eased as the Iranian military stated that it did not block the Strait of Hormuz and that it controls the passage rules. However, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, and the duration may exceed expectations. Therefore, inflation concerns and geopolitical games will continue to impact the precious metals market. On the other hand, US economic data such as ADP, non - manufacturing PMI, and weekly unemployment claims are all good, which further weakens the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index remains high. In addition, foreign media reported that the Polish central bank plans to sell gold reserves to fund the defense plan, putting overall pressure on precious metals prices [5] 8. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar will continue to impact the precious metals market, and gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term energy prices remaining high may subject the precious metals market to inflation - risk trading, but due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices are supported and will maintain high volatility [5] - In the long run, the logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 4, 2026, London gold spot was $5164.14 per ounce, London silver spot was $84.93 per ounce, COMEX gold was $5174.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $85.05 per ounce. Compared with March 3, gold prices dropped by 2.7% and silver prices decreased by 0.2% [3] - The price of the AU2604 gold futures contract was 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 silver futures contract was 21854 yuan per kilogram on March 4, 2026, with a change of - 2.4% and 1.0% respectively compared to March 3 [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver in different markets also showed certain changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 21.8% from March 3 to March 4 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1099.04 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15981.38274 tons. Compared with March 2, the changes were - 0.21% and 0.50% respectively [3] - COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 211649 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52472 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 159177 contracts on March 3, 2026, with corresponding changes compared to March 2 [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 4, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105033.00 kilograms, a - 0.03% change from March 3. The SHFE silver inventory was 294823.00 kilograms, a - 4.12% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33071598 troy ounces, a - 0.30% change from March 2, and the COMEX silver inventory was 355173837 troy ounces, a - 0.67% change from March 2 [3] 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 4, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, with a 0.05% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.06, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the VIX was 23.57, the S&P 500 was 6816.63, and NYMEX crude oil was $74.80. Compared with March 2, the changes were 0.52%, 1.15%, 0.25%, 9.93%, - 0.94%, and 5.31% respectively [3] 5. Market Review - On March 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.1% to 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.43% to 21854 yuan per kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US Treasury Secretary said the crude oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Gulf region, causing crude oil prices to fall and easing inflation concerns. The weakening of the US dollar index led to a rebound in precious metal prices after hitting the bottom [4] - Geopolitical conflicts are ongoing. The US Defense Secretary said the US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned that a 158% tariff rate may take effect this week, which continues to support precious metal prices [4] - The increase of 63,000 in the US ADP employment in February, the largest increase since July last year, eases the risk of economic recession. The inconsistent hawkish stances of Fed officials also suppress precious metal prices to some extent [4] - For silver, although the inventory and position risks in September have been greatly alleviated, the SHFE inventory has fallen below 300 tons, and the New York inventory is still declining. The physical tight - supply structure has not been fully alleviated, so the fundamentals still support silver prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid increase in the price of London spot gold from $5,000 per ounce to $5,400 per ounce within a week is mainly driven by the concentrated rise in market risk - aversion sentiment, which stems from the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and panic trading in the US stock market regarding AI development. Under the dominance of risk - aversion sentiment, the whole market switches to a "risk - aversion first" trading strategy, with US Treasury bonds, the US dollar, and precious metals rising simultaneously [3]. - The current focus of the Middle - East situation is the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader. The confrontation among the US, Israel, and Iran is more likely to become long - term, and the tail risk of continuous conflict will systematically raise the central price of gold [3]. - The support of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict for gold will also form a secondary drive through the transmission of oil prices to inflation expectations. If the conflict escalates and causes the supply interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices are likely to soar, leading to an increase in global inflation expectations and further strengthening the allocation attractiveness of gold as an inflation - resistant asset [3]. - To judge whether the short - term gold price can continue to rise, the change in internal - external premium is the core observation indicator. Currently, there is no obvious sign of acceleration in the internal - external premium, so it is not advisable to easily judge that the top has been reached [3]. - AI panic trading has pushed up the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the expected annual interest rate cut increasing to 60.9 bps. The concerns about the negative impact of AI on software companies and the labor market have lowered the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs AI Panic Trading and Interest Rate Expectations - AI panic trading has pushed up the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the expected annual interest rate cut reaching 60.9 bps. Concerns about the impact of AI on software companies and the labor market have lowered the Fed's threshold for interest rate cuts [7]. US Treasury Yields - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds at various maturities declined. The 30 - year UST yield dropped 11.1 bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield dropped 13.57 bps to 3.95%, and the 2 - year UST yield dropped 9.9 bps to 3.4%. The yield curve flattened. The decline in yields is mainly due to the increase in risk - aversion demand, which goes against the relatively strong US economic data [10]. Fed Reserves - Last week, the usage of ONRRP was $329.2 billion, a decrease of $1.26 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance on Wednesday last week was $3.004 trillion, an increase of $44.4 billion from the previous week [15]. US Treasury Bond Positions - As of February 24, there was a divergence in the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond interest rates. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 113,628 lots to 1,348,036 lots, while the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures decreased by 103,833 lots to 744,020 lots [20]. US Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS declined. The 5 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.11%, a decrease of 11 bps from the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.72%, a decrease of 8 bps from the previous week [28]. US Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the US dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. Gold rose 3.4%, and the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 97.6, with the rolling correlation between them decreasing. The US dollar appreciated 0.7% against the yen, depreciated 0.3% against the euro, and depreciated 0.1% against the pound [34]. - As of February 24, the total position of the US dollar index decreased. The non - commercial long positions decreased by 2,121 contracts to 13,300 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4 contracts to 15,100 contracts, with the short side dominant. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio was 51%, a decrease from the previous week, and the non - commercial short position ratio was 58%, an increase from the previous week [38]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore US dollar liquidity increased [41]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - gold ratio dropped to 2.52, indicating that the growth rate of copper prices was lower than that of gold, and the marginal decline in global total demand momentum [48]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - silver ratio fluctuated downward because the increase in the gold price was less than that of silver last week; the gold - copper ratio increased because the increase in the gold price was greater than that of copper; the gold - oil ratio increased month - on - month because the increase in the oil price was less than that of gold [57]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and the US dollar index and copper decreased, while the correlation with crude oil increased [63]. - The internal - external premiums of silver and gold tended to be stable, and the Asian influence was not fully prominent [68]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 33.321 million ounces, a decrease of 599,000 ounces month - on - month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 360.333 million ounces, a decrease of 5.925 million ounces month - on - month. The SHFE gold inventory was about 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.012 tons month - on - month, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 43.0 tons to 306.6 tons month - on - month [74]. - The SPDR gold ETF position increased by 22.6 tons to 1,101.3 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years; the SLV silver ETF position increased by 474.8 tons to 15,992.4 tons, and it is currently at a medium - to - high level [80]. - The total COMEX gold position increased by 13,104 lots to 420,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 1,783 lots to 211,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,045 lots to 52,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of gold allocation. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 50%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 12% [86]. - The total COMEX silver position decreased by 6,042 lots to 125,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 4,126 lots to 33,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,383 lots to 10,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of silver allocation. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 25.9%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 8.2% [91].

Energy Sector - Natural gas futures fell 29% in February, settling below $2.86 per MMBtu as the shoulder season approaches in spring [1] - April WTI and May Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.52% and 6.24%, respectively, with Brent outperforming WTI [6] - The outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28 caused crude oil and oil product prices to rise significantly in early March [7] Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium futures rose 11.87% and 5.70% in January, with three of the four precious metals posting double-digit gains in February [2] - Gold futures gained 10.60% in February after a low of $4,423.20 per ounce on February 2, while silver futures rose 17.88% [3][4] - The continued rise in precious metals prices reflects the declining value of the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies [2] Agricultural Commodities - Grains prices rallied in February due to uncertainty over weather, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and rising demand [8] - CBOT soybean futures gained 8.70%, soft red winter wheat rose 8.33%, and corn futures increased by 2.93% [9] - Soft commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE cocoa futures dropping 31.66% and frozen concentrated orange juice futures falling 13.76% [10] Livestock and Lumber - Cattle futures declined in February, with live and feeder cattle futures falling 1.93% and 1.97%, respectively [11] - Lumber futures decreased by 6.89% amid the construction offseason, although lower interest rates in 2026 could support future price increases [11] Bonds and Cryptocurrencies - Bonds rose in February due to expectations of lower short-term interest rates, while the dollar index increased by 0.73% [12][13] - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling 21.77% and Ethereum dropping 28.17% [15] Market Outlook - The economic and geopolitical landscapes remain turbulent, with expectations of volatility in commodities as they move into March [16] - Metals such as gold, silver, and copper are in long-term bullish trends, supported by the decline in fiat currencies' purchasing power [17] - The situation in the Middle East is a critical factor for crude oil and oil product prices in the near term [16]