Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the US dollar faces sustained long-term weakness against gold and major currencies, with 2025 marking what Dalio believes to be a decisive shift in global capital flows. The dollar fell 39% against gold while declining 12% against the euro and 13% against the Swiss franc. “The biggest story and the biggest market moves of the year were the result of the weakest fiat currencies falling the most, while the strongest/hardest currencies strengthened the m ...

Gold is up 68% for the year. - Getty Images/iStockphoto Gold reaching a new record high is evidence the “great debasement trade” is back on, says one strategist. Robin Brooks, the senior economist at the Brookings Institution and previously chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs, made his comment as gold surged past $4,400 an ounce. Most Read from MarketWatch In a post on Substack, Brooks wrote that the upswing is a direct result of the most recent interest-rate reduction from the Federal Reserve ...

The Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ( FXF ) is an exchange-traded investment vehicle offered by investment manager Invesco for investors seeking exposure to the Swiss franc. It is one of the most direct vehicles availableAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for ...

Markets widely expect a quarter point reduction when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9-10, and a focus will be on any signals about how much additional easing lies ahead. The Traders are pricing around 86% odds of Fed cut next Wednesday, and potentially 2-3 more reductions next year, LSEG data showed. Fed officials have been carefully watching the labour market to determine whether the Live Events Data overnight showed the number of Americans filing new applications for ...

Core Insights - The US financial market experienced a positive week following the end of a record-long government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, allowing for the resumption of official data [1] - The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released on November 20, providing traders with crucial data after a period of uncertainty [2] - Fed officials have pushed back against expectations for further rate cuts, emphasizing that the lack of data does not warrant easier monetary policy [2] Market Sentiment - President Trump's decision to exempt key food items from reciprocal tariffs reflects growing consumer frustration over grocery prices, impacting market sentiment [3] - Risk aversion has led to a rise in USD/JPY and the Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar and British pound have lagged [3] Currency Pairs Analysis - The AUD/CHF pair has been hovering around the key level of 0.52260 since late June, showing signs of weakness with a lower low in October [4][6] - The GBP/SGD pair has been testing the level of 1.71500 unsuccessfully on three occasions, indicating potential downward movement towards 1.68700 if it remains below this level [7][9] Upcoming Events - Nvidia, the most valuable firm globally, is set to release its quarterly report, which is expected to act as a macro catalyst due to its significant role in the AI sector [10] - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report will influence expectations for the Fed's interest rate plans, with a solid but cooling labor print supporting a soft-landing narrative [12] Global Market Trends - Investors are closely watching the ongoing risk-off sentiment in the tech sector, persistent weakness in cryptocurrencies, and evolving rate-cut expectations in the UK and Europe [13]

Market Reaction to U.S. Tariffs - The market's reaction to President Trump's tariff reversal on over 200 food products was muted, attributed to ongoing cost-of-living issues [1][14] - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 99.37, despite a broad selloff in U.S. stocks and bonds last week [6][14] Currency Movements - The Swiss franc remained around a one-month high at 0.7941 per dollar, supported by concerns over recent stock market selloffs [2][14] - The euro decreased by 0.11% to $1.1607, while the Australian dollar fell 0.15% to $0.6527, and the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.12% to $0.5673 [5][14] U.S. Economic Data Expectations - There is heightened market interest in upcoming U.S. economic data releases, particularly the September nonfarm payrolls report, due to a data vacuum lasting over 40 days [4][14] - Current market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have decreased to just over 40%, down from over 60% earlier in the month [6][14] UK Economic Concerns - The British pound traded 0.11% lower at $1.3161, influenced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' announcement of no plans to raise income tax rates, which raised concerns about fiscal shortfalls [8][14] - Reeves is expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet fiscal targets in the upcoming November 26 budget, with financial markets viewing income tax increases as a primary solution [9][14] Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economy contracted an annualized 1.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [11][14]

Core Insights - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the euro, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and potential reductions in US tariffs, leading to increased demand for the currency [1][3] - The franc's rise is supported by comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) indicating a slight increase in inflation, which has reduced speculation about a return to negative interest rates [2] - Hedge funds are positioning for further appreciation of the franc, particularly against the euro and yen, as December is historically a strong month for the currency [4] Currency Performance - The Swiss franc increased by 0.4% to 0.91862 per euro, marking its strongest level since January 2015 [1] - The current upward trend is on track for a seventh consecutive daily gain, the longest winning streak since August 2024 [1] Market Sentiment - Money markets have decreased the probability of negative interest rates to less than 30%, down from approximately 64% a month ago, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2] - Reports of Switzerland nearing a 15% tariff reduction on exports to the US have further bolstered the franc [3] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds are increasingly betting on the strength of the franc against the euro and yen, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [4] - There is a potential for long positions against the US dollar as well, given the historical performance of the franc in December [4]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies, remaining flat against the euro and yen while declining against the Swiss franc, indicating a cautious approach from investors in a risk-averse environment [1] Currency Performance - The dollar was flat against the euro and yen, suggesting stability in these currency pairs [1] - The dollar experienced a decline against the Swiss franc, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - Overall, the dollar's slight recovery indicates a temporary avoidance of risk by investors [1]

Economic and Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline, marking a third consecutive session of losses against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, influenced by U.S.-China tensions and Federal Reserve remarks [1][2] - The dollar weakened by 0.49% to 0.793 against the Swiss franc, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and market uncertainty [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.33% to 98.35, with U.S. Treasury yields near multi-week lows, indicating pressure on the dollar amid a potential prolonged U.S. government shutdown [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed job market signals [3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates emerging economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and lower-income households, which may influence future rate decisions [4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The dominant narrative remains U.S.-China trade tensions, with China increasing pressure ahead of a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, raising questions about potential negotiation strategies [2] European Economic Developments - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, allowing him to deliver a budget and temporarily suspending controversial pension reforms, which positively impacted the euro, pushing it to a one-week high at $1.1688 [6]

Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29, citing a stagnant labor market and the impact of the government shutdown on economic data assessment [6][8] - Markets are currently anticipating a quarter-point rate cut this month, another in December, and three additional cuts next year, according to LSEG data [6][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index was flat at 99.055 after a 0.2% decline in the previous session, with the dollar losing ground against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc [2][8] - The greenback was steady at 151.80 yen, following a 0.3% slide, and little changed at 0.8013 franc after a similar drop [2][8] - The euro held firm at $1.1606 after gaining 0.3% in the previous session [3][8] U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China were highlighted, with both countries imposing fees on shipping firms, affecting various goods [7][8] - Joseph Capurso from Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the U.S.-China tensions could escalate further, which may negatively impact the risk-sensitive Australian dollar [7][8] - The Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.6491 after a previous decline, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.1% to $0.5706, extending its decline from Tuesday [7][8]