The financial market experienced a choppy, yet ultimately positive week as the US ended a record-long government shutdown. After 43 days, the spending bill finally passed, clearing the way for the resumption of official data.The Bureau of Labor Statistics quickly confirmed that the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Thursday, November 20, giving traders a fresh anchor after weeks of trading in the dark. On the other hand, Fed officials, including Cleveland's Beth Hammack and ...

Market reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs U-turn on more than 200 food products was muted, with some analysts saying the move was not a surprise due to cost-of- living issues. Elsewhere, sterling remained under pressure following a whirlwind Friday session as speculation swirled around the UK government's highly anticipated November 26 budget. The safe-haven Swiss franc hovered around a one-month high and last stood at 0.7941 per dollar, finding support from jitters over an ugly selloff in s ...

The Swiss franc climbed to a 10-year high against the euro as expectations of stickier inflation and the prospect of lower US tariffs bolstered demand for the haven currency. The franc rose 0.4% to 0.91862 per euro, its strongest level since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank ended the 1.20 exchange rate cap. It’s on track for a seventh daily gain, the longest winning streak since August 2024. Most Read from Bloomberg The currency’s advance follows comments from SNB Vice President Antoine Martin ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies, remaining flat against the euro and yen while declining against the Swiss franc, indicating a cautious approach from investors in a risk-averse environment [1] Currency Performance - The dollar was flat against the euro and yen, suggesting stability in these currency pairs [1] - The dollar experienced a decline against the Swiss franc, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - Overall, the dollar's slight recovery indicates a temporary avoidance of risk by investors [1]

Economic and Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline, marking a third consecutive session of losses against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, influenced by U.S.-China tensions and Federal Reserve remarks [1][2] - The dollar weakened by 0.49% to 0.793 against the Swiss franc, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and market uncertainty [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.33% to 98.35, with U.S. Treasury yields near multi-week lows, indicating pressure on the dollar amid a potential prolonged U.S. government shutdown [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed job market signals [3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates emerging economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and lower-income households, which may influence future rate decisions [4] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The dominant narrative remains U.S.-China trade tensions, with China increasing pressure ahead of a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, raising questions about potential negotiation strategies [2] European Economic Developments - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, allowing him to deliver a budget and temporarily suspending controversial pension reforms, which positively impacted the euro, pushing it to a one-week high at $1.1688 [6]

Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29, citing a stagnant labor market and the impact of the government shutdown on economic data assessment [6][8] - Markets are currently anticipating a quarter-point rate cut this month, another in December, and three additional cuts next year, according to LSEG data [6][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index was flat at 99.055 after a 0.2% decline in the previous session, with the dollar losing ground against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc [2][8] - The greenback was steady at 151.80 yen, following a 0.3% slide, and little changed at 0.8013 franc after a similar drop [2][8] - The euro held firm at $1.1606 after gaining 0.3% in the previous session [3][8] U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China were highlighted, with both countries imposing fees on shipping firms, affecting various goods [7][8] - Joseph Capurso from Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the U.S.-China tensions could escalate further, which may negatively impact the risk-sensitive Australian dollar [7][8] - The Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.6491 after a previous decline, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.1% to $0.5706, extending its decline from Tuesday [7][8]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar fell by 1% to 0.6465, marking its lowest level in nearly two months, while the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.6% to $0.5693, reflecting a negative sentiment in risk assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions [4] - The U.S. and China are set to impose additional port fees on ocean shipping firms, impacting a wide range of goods, which indicates escalating trade tensions [3] - The chief economist at Lombard Odier highlighted that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is a significant global concern, suggesting that uncertainty and tariffs will persist in the long term [5] Group 2 - Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened, with the dollar down 0.3% against the yen and 0.1% against the franc, indicating a flight to safety amid geopolitical tensions [6] - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly regarding the potential candidacy of Sanae Takaichi for prime minister, has limited the yen's gains, as her party's coalition partner withdrew support [6] - The euro experienced mixed trading, with Asian traders pushing it higher, while European traders saw it decline by 0.15% to $1.1552, reflecting uncertainty in the broader currency market [7]

Core Insights - The global trading volume of the Chinese yuan has reached $817 billion per day, marking a significant increase and nearing the trading volumes of the British pound [1] - The yuan's share of global currency transactions has risen to 8.5% from 7.0% in 2022, indicating a growing international presence [1] - Despite being the fifth-most traded currency, the yuan is closing the gap with the British pound, which saw its share decline from 12.9% to 10.2% [1] Group 1 - Chinese officials have been actively working to enhance the global appeal of the yuan by easing capital controls to reduce the dominance of the US dollar [2] - The yuan's internationalization efforts are showing progress, although challenges such as restrictions on cross-border capital flows persist [3] - The yuan's share as a global payment currency has decreased to 2.9% in August from 4.7% in the same month last year, reflecting mixed signals regarding its international usage [4] Group 2 - The Swiss franc has also seen significant growth, with daily trading rising to $612 billion, surpassing both the Australian and Canadian dollars to become the sixth most-traded currency [5] - The Hong Kong dollar's share in global currency transactions has notably increased from 2.6% to 3.8% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) significantly increased its foreign currency purchases in Q2 2023 to counteract appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc following U.S. tariff announcements, marking the highest level of interventions in over three years [1][2]. Currency Interventions - The SNB purchased 5.06 billion Swiss francs (approximately $6.36 billion) in foreign currencies during April to June, a notable increase compared to only 1.26 billion francs over the previous five quarters [1][4]. - The interventions were likely aimed at stabilizing the foreign exchange market amid a 7% surge of the franc against the U.S. dollar and a 2.2% increase against the euro in April [2][3]. Economic Context - The appreciation of the franc is seen as a threat to the SNB's goal of maintaining price stability, with annual inflation targeted between 0-2% [3]. - Increased political uncertainty and market volatility have contributed to inflows into the franc, prompting the SNB's actions [2][3]. Future Outlook - The SNB Chairman indicated that the bank would continue to utilize all available tools, including currency interventions, to achieve its inflation targets if necessary [4]. - The SNB faces a dilemma between increasing forex interventions, which could attract negative attention from the U.S., or lowering interest rates below 0%, which is undesirable for the bank [5][6].

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies, including the yen, Swiss franc, and euro, following a cautious statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding future easing measures [1][3] - The euro declined after an unexpected fall in German business morale, with a decrease of 0.69% to $1.1734, while sterling fell 0.58% to $1.3443 [2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.65% to 97.87, attempting to recover from two consecutive losing sessions [5] Group 2 - Markets anticipate quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Federal Reserve meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with the central bank's guidance [4] - The focus is on upcoming U.S. data, particularly the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed's policy direction [4] - The dollar remains underweight in the real money community, suggesting a potential period of consolidation [3][5]