Core Insights - Tempus AI is experiencing strong operational momentum with significant revenue and gross profit growth, transitioning from a high-growth startup to a scalable enterprise AI and diagnostics company [1][2] Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q4 2024, Tempus AI reported a 35.8% year-over-year revenue growth and a 49.7% increase in gross profit, primarily driven by its high-margin Data and Services segment [2] - For Q1 2025, revenues grew by 34% and gross profit increased by 45%, with gross margin rising from 42.5% to 44.5% [2][7] - The improvements were attributed to lab efficiencies, increased adoption of AI tools like Tempus One and xM, and a higher mix of data services [2][7] Future Earnings Expectations - The upcoming Q2 2025 earnings release is anticipated to show further margin expansion and sequential gains in adjusted EBITDA, supported by new offerings such as Tempus One in EHR systems and the xM liquid biopsy assay [3] - Any upward revision to guidance or increase in contract value, especially from large enterprise deals, could enhance the momentum observed in early 2025 [3] Competitive Landscape - Tempus AI's peers, such as Guardant Health and Natera, are also making significant advancements in AI-driven diagnostics, with Guardant Health introducing new assays and Natera expanding its market reach [6][8] - Natera reported a 36.5% revenue growth in Q1 2025, with gross margin expansion to 63.1%, indicating a competitive environment in personalized oncology [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tempus AI's 2025 earnings suggests a 56.3% year-over-year improvement [9] - Current estimates indicate a potential for significant growth in earnings per share, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 63.49% for the current quarter [10] Valuation Metrics - Tempus AI currently trades at a forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.52X, which is higher than the industry average of 5.8X, indicating a potentially expensive valuation [11]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 AI 及无人化聚焦落地，重视稳定币及 RWA 金融创新 计算机行业 2025 年中期投资策略 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 回顾 25 年上半年计算机板块行情，AI、金融科技创新、无人化三大主线轮动。 我们再次重申，科技创新是 25 年增长主线，重点关注 AI 迭代创新及 AI 算力、 金融科技创新、机器人场景落地等方向投资机会。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3525.2 | 4.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3104.0 | 3.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8.9 9.3 61.3 相对表现 6.8 10.7 47.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《香港虚拟资产服务相关牌照梳理 — — 计算机周观察 20250629 》 2025-06-29 ...

Core Insights - Tempus AI (TEM) experienced a 12.5% surge in early June, significantly outperforming the broader market due to positive investor reactions to new product launches [1][9] - The company has established a $200 million partnership with AstraZeneca and Pathos to develop a large oncology-focused foundation model, enhancing its position in AI-driven drug discovery [5][9] - Despite revenue growth, Tempus remains unprofitable, reporting an adjusted EBITDA loss of $16.2 million in Q1 2025, although this is an improvement from the previous year [14][16] Strategic Product Innovation - The xM Liquid Biopsy Assay utilizes whole-genome sequencing and fragmentomics for noninvasive monitoring of immunotherapy responses in advanced cancer patients, providing real-time treatment insights [3] - Tempus One, an AI-powered clinical assistant, has been integrated into major EHR systems, offering real-time, patient-specific insights to enhance clinical decision-making [4] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, TEM stock has increased by 83.8%, outperforming the Medical Info Systems industry and the S&P 500 [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.77, which is above the industry average of 6.09, indicating it may be overvalued compared to peers [15][16] Recent Developments - The acquisition of Deep 6 AI enhances Tempus's clinical trial matching and provider analytics capabilities, expanding its provider connectivity to over 4,000 connections [6] - The partnership with AstraZeneca is expected to leverage over 300 petabytes of data, aiming to accelerate AI-driven drug discovery and diagnostics [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tempus AI's stock experienced a significant increase of 15% following positive announcements related to its AI-driven programs, despite facing allegations from short sellers regarding its AI usage [1][2]. Company Developments - Tempus, a precision medicine company utilizing AI, was recently targeted by a short report questioning its AI claims. In response, the company made announcements about two AI initiatives over the weekend, which seemed to mitigate concerns raised by the short seller [2]. - The company updated its AI platform, Tempus One, to include direct access to electronic health records (EHR) systems, enhancing its ability to gather real-time clinical, molecular, and imaging data from millions of patients [3]. - Tempus introduced an initiative called Fuses, aimed at creating an AI-enabled diagnostic platform that offers a comprehensive suite of algorithmic tests to advance precision medicine [5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcements, Tempus AI's stock surged, aligning with a broader market increase in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [1]. - TD Cowen maintained a buy rating for Tempus, indicating confidence in the company's prospects despite the short seller's allegations [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tempus AI, Inc. is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with expectations of a revenue of $248.08 million and a loss of 27 cents per share, reflecting a steady consensus estimate over the past 90 days [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Tempus AI had an adjusted loss of 18 cents, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 15 cents per share, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.46% over the trailing three quarters [1]. - The company experienced a 43% gain in stock price during the first quarter of 2025, outperforming the broader industry gain of 2.1% and the S&P 500 decline of 4.9% [4][5]. Growth Drivers - The Genomics unit is expected to report strong growth, building on over 30% growth in the previous quarter, while Data and Services revenues are anticipated to have accelerated by 44.6% year over year [10]. - Strategic acquisitions, including Ambry Genetics for $600 million and Deep 6 AI, are expected to enhance Tempus's capabilities in diagnostics and data analytics, contributing positively to financial performance [11][18]. EBITDA and Cash Flow - Tempus AI reported an adjusted EBITDA of -$7.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a $27.3 million year-over-year improvement, with expectations of positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million for the full year 2025 [12]. - The cumulative operating cash outflow improved to $189 million at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, down from $214.3 million a year ago, indicating a trend towards positive cash flow [13]. Long-term Prospects - The company is advancing precision medicine through AI applications, with a focus on creating Intelligent Diagnostics to enhance personalized care and accelerate therapeutic development [14]. - The launch of the AI-enabled personal health concierge app, olivia, positions Tempus to benefit from the shift towards patient-centric healthcare [15]. - The FDA approval of the xT CDx test strengthens Tempus's oncology portfolio, likely increasing demand for its diagnostic services [16]. Market Position and Valuation - Tempus AI's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.81, which is higher than the industry average of 5.15, indicating an expensive valuation compared to peers [20]. - Despite the high valuation, the AI market's projected exponential growth positions Tempus AI to capitalize on expanding opportunities in the healthcare sector [21].

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) play a pivotal role in precision oncology, analyzing vast datasets, identifying patterns and aiding in informed decision-making. Within this domain, digital pathology plays a crucial role, leveraging AI algorithms to detect cancerous cells, classify tumor subtypes and enhance patient outcomes. Among its key focus areas, AI-powered automated image analysis and biomarker identification stand out as major advancements.AI/ML in precision oncology has garner ...