导语 在数字经济时代，支付链条正在悄然重塑：传统以SWIFT为代表的跨境体系遭遇区块链与稳定币的新挑战。本文从三类数字货币出发，剖析「稳定币vs支 付主权」的博弈格局，厘清风险与自由之间的微妙平衡。 01 稳定币的崛起：桥梁还是桎梏？ 稳定币伴随区块链技术而生，是一种市场主导、旨在维持法币价值锚定的数字金融工具。它连接数字货币与现实世界法币，使两者形成相对稳定的兑换关 系。 当前，主流稳定币多锚定美元，数字货币生态的繁荣反而进一步强化了美元在全球支付体系中的地位。同时，各国央行也在积极试点央行数字货币 （CBDC），新的资本流动图景正在形成。 区块链与支付体系的「平行」出现 随着区块链和比特币的兴起，真正的去中心化数字货币开始构建一条可能绕开传统支付通道的路径。比特币以其分布式账本、无需中心机构的特征，在全 球互联网用户间流通。 这实质上是一条与SWIFT平行的结算网络。 然而，其价格波动剧烈、缺乏稳定锚定机制，难以承担主流支付货币角色。 于是，稳定币出现：如早期的Tether（USDT）、随后受监管的USD Coin（USDC）——分别代表高效率／高风险与合规／低风险。 03 三类数字货币的生态：从自由到主 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Warnings and Market Risks - The rise of stablecoins has attracted significant capital but also created opportunities for illegal activities, prompting regulatory bodies in China to issue multiple warnings since July [3][4] - Consumers are advised to verify the qualifications of institutions through official channels and to choose licensed financial entities, as the risks associated with stablecoins are heightened in a bullish market [3][4] - The SEC in the U.S. has intensified its crackdown on unregistered stablecoin projects, emphasizing that stablecoins are not risk-free assets and urging investors to be cautious of their complexities and potential volatility [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The native token of the Dolomite protocol within the Berachain ecosystem has surged by 230% in the past month, indicating a shift of stablecoins from mere payment tools to more complex financial applications like lending and asset tokenization [5][6] - HSBC has stated that the development of a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin will not undermine the currency peg, and Hong Kong is positioned to become a testing ground for stablecoin innovations that could facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi [6] Group 3: Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - Despite extreme short-selling pressure, Bitcoin's price has rebounded to $117,000, showcasing market resilience, while stablecoins like Tether (USDT) have seen a 20% increase in trading volume during this volatility [7] - Analysts warn that while stablecoins can act as a safe haven, they are not infallible, as evidenced by past events like the TerraUSD collapse, highlighting the need for diversified investment strategies [7] Group 4: Decentralized Trading Platforms - Decentralized trading platforms are gaining traction by offering secure and efficient solutions for stablecoin trading, attracting global investors amid tightening regulations [8] - These platforms emphasize user autonomy and privacy, with a 25% increase in user base in North America attributed to their commitment to transparency and fraud risk reduction [8] Group 5: Future Outlook for Stablecoins - The future of stablecoins presents both challenges and opportunities, with technological innovations and regulatory cooperation being crucial for their development [9] - Experts recommend that investors prioritize stablecoins linked to strong assets, utilize decentralized platforms to mitigate risks, and stay informed through reliable sources for real-time analysis [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing rapid growth, with the circulation volume increasing from less than $120 billion at the beginning of 2023 to $215 billion by the first quarter of 2025. The on-chain transaction volume in 2024 is projected to reach $5.6 trillion, equivalent to 40% of Visa's payment transaction volume [10] - Circle's IPO on June 5, 2025, reflects a positive market sentiment towards the stablecoin sector, with its stock price rising by 168.48% to $83.23, resulting in a market capitalization of $18.356 billion [2][5] - The emergence of new issuers, such as JD.com, is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the stablecoin market, which is currently dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), holding nearly 90% market share as of 2024 [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The stablecoin market is rapidly evolving, with significant applications in cross-border remittances and digital payment systems. Traditional remittance methods take 3-5 days and incur an average cost of 6%, while stablecoins can facilitate near-instantaneous and low-cost value transfers [10] Key Players - Major players in the stablecoin market include Circle and JD.com, which are actively promoting the use of stablecoins in various payment scenarios, thereby expanding their reach beyond cryptocurrency trading [10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with issuance qualifications, those with technological expertise in blockchain, and firms holding relevant licenses [10]