丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 上海组织学习稳定币，看好金融创新相关投资机 遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 10 日，上海市国资委党委召开中心组学习会，围绕加密货币与稳定币的发展趋势及应对策 略开展学习。上海市国资委党委书记、主任贺青主持会议并讲话。市委第四督导组组长王治平 到会指导。市国资委党政领导班子成员出席。随着多个城市开展系统性研究稳定币，或说明稳 定币逐步受到政府重视，人民币稳定币探索工作有望逐步开展，并对"稳定币"行业各环节及 参与方产生积极的影响。建议关注：1）具有发币资格的相关企业；2）在区块链等关键技术上 有技术积累的企业；3）具有相关牌照的企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 7 月 10 日，上海市国资委党委召开中心组学习会，围绕加密货币与稳定币的发展趋势 ...

英国央行行长贝利：质疑稳定币和央行数字货币（CBDC）的作用/地位。 ...

在全球金融市场的数字化浪潮中，稳定币已从新兴概念蜕变为重塑金融格局的关键力量，其引发的全球博弈正愈演愈烈。 英国牛津大学出版社《国际经济法杂志》2025年5月21日刊文《稳定币及其监管：哈耶克的视角》指出，当前新兴的全球稳定币监管格局呈现 出显著的多样性：一端是将稳定币视为威胁并禁止使用的国家，它们计划推出央行数字货币（CBDC）作为低风险替代选项，借区块链技术提 升金融效率；另一端则积极与行业合作，着力将自身打造成区块链"避风港"和监管"沙盒"，主动接纳稳定币；而介于两端之间的司法管辖区， 多通过现有法律框架或专门的加密资产法规对其实施监管。 具体到关键市场，2025年6月17日美国参议院通过《天才法案》，以积极姿态推动美元稳定币合规化，旨在巩固美元霸权并缓解美债危机； 2025年5月21日中国香港立法会通过《稳定币条例草案》，明确将稳定币纳入规范化监管范畴。各国监管态度的分化背后，是利益考量的深层 博弈——部分国家为吸引加密行业资金展现友好姿态，另一些则因担忧金融风险与货币主权受冲击而持谨慎立场。 这场 没有硝烟的较量，焦点集中在稳定币的发行资质审核、储备金透明化管理、反洗钱与反恐融资机制构建等核心领域。 ...

Group 1 - South Korean financial giant Shinhan Financial Group's subsidiary Shinhan Investment Corp has applied for seven trademarks related to Korean won stablecoins, marking a significant move in the stablecoin market following NH Investment & Securities [1] - The competition for digital currency positioning in South Korea is intensifying, with Shinhan Card and Jeju Bank already making strategic moves in this area [1] - The digital currency landscape in East Asia is evolving, with Japan and China also advancing their central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives, indicating a regional push towards digital currency ecosystems [2] Group 2 - The U.S. is experiencing a breakthrough in digital asset tax reform, with a new proposal aimed at eliminating double taxation on digital assets, aligning their tax treatment with traditional assets like gold and livestock [3] - The proposed legislation includes a $5,000 annual tax exemption for small transactions, which could facilitate the use of cryptocurrencies for small payments [3] - The EU's decision to remove the digital tax option from its 2028 fiscal plan is seen as a significant victory for U.S. tech giants, reflecting a shift in global tax policy [2][6] Group 3 - The competition for digital asset infrastructure is intensifying globally, with the EU's concession on digital tax seen as a move to avoid trade tensions with the U.S., thereby creating more policy space for digital asset innovation [6] - XBIT, a decentralized exchange platform, is emerging as a key player in connecting traditional finance with the digital currency ecosystem, offering efficient cross-border settlement channels [6][10] - The surge in cross-border payment transactions using the digital yuan, particularly with oil-exporting countries and ASEAN members, highlights the growing demand for agile digital asset exchange hubs like XBIT [7]

Core Concept - Digital Renminbi (DCEP) is a significant innovation in China's currency digitization, issued by the People's Bank of China, and holds the same legal status and economic value as cash [1] Group 1: Characteristics and Technology - Digital Renminbi features "payment and settlement" capabilities, allowing direct value transfer between users without third-party payment institutions, enhancing payment efficiency and reducing transaction costs [3] - It employs advanced blockchain and encryption technologies, achieving a "controllable anonymity" design for small transactions while adhering to regulatory requirements for larger ones [4] - The system can process over 300,000 transactions per second, significantly outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum networks [4] - Security is ensured through national encryption standards and hardware encryption modules, capable of withstanding various cyber threats, including quantum computing attacks [6] - It supports "dual offline payment" functionality, enabling transactions without network access, which is crucial during emergencies [6] Group 2: Applications and Social Impact - Digital Renminbi is being tested in multiple pilot cities across China, covering retail, public transport, and government services, with over 750 million transactions and a total transaction amount exceeding 830 billion yuan as of June 2023 [7] - It is expected to enhance monetary policy transmission efficiency, reducing time lags by approximately 30% and improving macroeconomic control precision [9] - The initiative aims to increase financial inclusion, potentially raising China's financial inclusion index by 15-20 percentage points [9] Group 3: Global Implications - The launch of Digital Renminbi marks a milestone in China's fintech development and offers valuable insights for the global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) evolution [10] - As the pilot scope expands and application scenarios diversify, Digital Renminbi is reshaping China's payment ecosystem and contributing to the digital transformation of the global monetary system [10]

21世纪经济报道记者 黄子潇 香港报道 距香港《稳定币条例》生效仅一月有余，发行机构的一举一动皆牵动着市场。 港元稳定币是一种基于公链并与港元 (HKD) 1:1挂钩的加密货币。去年7月，香港金管局公布首批三家稳定币发行人名单，包括 圆币创新科技有限公司（圆币科技子公司），京东币链科技(香港)有限公司，以及渣打银行(香港)、安拟集团、香港电讯组成的 联合体。 与拥有互联网大厂背景、国际大型银行背景的其他两家发行人相比，创立于2021年圆币科技是一家年轻的公司，最初主要从事 支付业务，在展业中注意到了稳定币的应用潜力。 数据显示，截至今年5月末，全球稳定币总市值达到2500亿美元，在过去五年间增长了10倍有余。 稳定币发行有着较为清晰的商业模式，主要收益来自于底层资产的利息。她表示，圆币会从跨境支付、持牌交易所、RWA三个 场景切入市场。由于香港未来只有合规稳定币才可以面向大众，凭借合规性即可获取一些市场份额。 此外，《稳定币条例》为多币种稳定币留出了空间。刘宇表示，虽然圆币从港元开始布局，但未来希望能够发行其他币种的稳 定币。同时，圆币也将对RWA领域做一些布局。 圆币科技行政总裁刘宇（Rita Liu） 拟 ...

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词风口和危机） 本周四，加密货币市场迎来年度最重要的IPO事件。 此次IPO受到华尔街热捧。Circle目标估值已从之前的56.5亿美元上调至72亿美元。贝莱德领投10%股份，Ark Investment也表达了高达1.5亿美元的投资兴 趣。 但在华尔街巨头争相入场的光鲜表象下，Circle也面临结构性的挑战。 看似"完美"的印钞机模式 稳定币已悄然成为加密货币市场的支柱，并且与传统金融的关系日益密切。2024年，稳定币交易额达到27.6万亿美元，比Visa和万事达卡的交易额总和高出近 8%。 目前稳定币总市值已达2480亿美元， Circle的USDC占据25%的市场份额，仅次于Tether的USDT的61%，总市值达600亿美元。 Circle的EURC在欧元支持的 稳定币中位居榜首，市值为2.24亿美元。 | | # | Name | | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d% | Market Cap @ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 3 | Tether USDT ...

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's June economic forecast may be influenced by predictions of stagflation [2] - The US International Trade Court has halted Trump's "liberation day" trade policy, with the Trump administration filing an appeal [2] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation, diminishing the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Central Bank of Russia's tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit to balanced levels, with signs of inflation retreat [3] - The UK is seeking to expedite the implementation of a trade agreement with the US [3] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, noting positive economic signs following wage increases [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that there was no discussion of exchange rate levels in recent talks with the US Treasury Secretary [3] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister will continue to urge the US to reconsider tariff measures and will hold ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation [3] Group 3: Other Central Banks and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor indicated that the official cash rate (OCR) may follow various paths, with uncertainty regarding a rate cut in July [4] - The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Bank of Korea forecasts inflation rates of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while lowering economic growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% [4] - A Reuters survey indicated that 53 out of 61 economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor noted that there is still room for further rate cuts due to economic downturn risks, with a low likelihood of policy rates falling below 2% [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor mentioned that recent US court rulings will reduce the effective tariff rate on Korea from 13.3% to 9.7% [5] Group 4: Currency Trends and Investor Sentiment - Investor bullish positions on the New Taiwan Dollar and Philippine Peso have reached the highest levels since 2020, reflecting optimism towards all Asian currencies [5] - The Russian Ruble briefly strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GENIUS Act proposes a $2 trillion expansion of USD stablecoins to address the U.S. debt crisis, but raises questions about its effectiveness in solving underlying financial issues [1][2]. Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the GENIUS Act - The act mandates a 1:1 backing of stablecoins with assets such as cash, bank deposits, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, prohibiting misuse or re-pledging of these assets [2]. - It requires frequent disclosure of reserves, with at least monthly reports and external audits [2]. - Issuers of stablecoins with a market cap exceeding $10 billion must transition to federal regulation within a specified timeframe [2]. - Custodians of stablecoins and their reserves must be regulated financial institutions [3]. - Stablecoins are explicitly defined as non-interest-bearing payment instruments, subject to banking regulations rather than securities or commodities regulations [3]. - Existing stablecoin issuers are given an 18-month grace period to comply with licensing requirements [3]. Economic Implications - The proposed $2 trillion stablecoin market could absorb 65% of the annual interest on U.S. debt, which amounts to $1.3 trillion [3]. - The act's design effectively shifts private demand for digital dollars into purchasing power for U.S. Treasuries, which may not resolve the debt crisis but rather redistribute it [3]. Structural Challenges - The act reflects policymakers' anxiety about balancing the benefits of blockchain technology with the need to maintain monetary sovereignty, particularly in limiting tech giants like Meta from issuing stablecoins [5]. - The current concentration of stablecoin trading, with USDT accounting for 82.7% of total volume, raises concerns about the flow of funds into the real economy [7]. Global Context and Future Outlook - The act's provisions may accelerate de-dollarization efforts by countries like China, as they may be reluctant to support U.S. dollar dominance under American regulation [9]. - The requirement for stablecoins to be backed by short-term Treasuries could increase their sensitivity to U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations, potentially linking them closely to U.S. debt risks [9]. - The expansion of USD stablecoins occurs alongside the rise of alternative digital currencies, such as the digital yuan and the digital euro, indicating a shift towards a multipolar currency landscape [10][11]. Conclusion - While the GENIUS Act may provide temporary relief for the U.S. debt crisis, it does not offer a long-term solution, as real economic value creation is essential for sustainable recovery [12].

Group 1 - The widespread promotion and application of digital currencies are transforming the global financial environment, creating new opportunities and challenges for individuals and businesses [2] - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) utilizes digital currencies and blockchain technology to create financial service platforms without traditional intermediaries, allowing users to lend, trade, and invest directly on-chain [2] - Digital currencies enhance the convenience of international trade by reducing intermediary involvement, lowering exchange rate risks, and decreasing transaction costs, thus improving efficiency [2] Group 2 - Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) development is being explored and implemented by central banks worldwide to enhance the efficiency and security of monetary systems, potentially altering traditional banking business models [2] - As the digital currency market grows, many countries are establishing stricter regulatory frameworks to ensure market stability and user safety, making compliance a key factor for the success of enterprises and projects [2] - User education and training are becoming increasingly important due to the complexity of digital currencies, with more training programs, online courses, and community support emerging to help users understand the basic concepts and risks [2] Group 3 - Continuous technological innovation will enrich the functionalities of digital currencies, leading to the emergence of more decentralized applications (DApps) that provide users with a smoother experience [4] - The potential integration of traditional financial institutions with digital currency projects may enhance the flexibility of the traditional financial system through offerings like digital wallets and payment solutions [4] - The widespread use of digital currencies may trigger new social and economic transformations, emphasizing personal privacy protection, establishing decentralized trust mechanisms, and challenging monetary policies [4]