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望远镜系列16之VFFY2026Q1经营跟踪:收入略优于预期,Q2指引谨慎
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-15 02:15
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2026Q1 (March 30, 2025 - June 28, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a slight decline of 2% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, which is better than market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][4] - The gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 53.9%, driven mainly by improved discounts and exchange rate factors [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: - Vans continued to face pressure with a revenue decline of 15% to $500 million - The North Face grew by 5% to $560 million - Timberland increased by 9% to $260 million [5] - **By Region**: - Revenue in the Americas declined by 3% to $940 million - EMEA saw a decrease of 2% to $550 million - APAC grew by 4% to $270 million, with Greater China down by 6% [5] - **By Channel**: - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue fell by 4% to $720 million - Wholesale channel revenue remained flat at $1.04 billion [5] Inventory and Tariff Impact - At the end of FY2026Q1, the company's inventory increased by 4% year-on-year to $2.14 billion, maintaining overall healthy inventory quality [10] - Tariff expectations are projected to impact gross profit by $60-70 million in FY2026, with half of this expected to occur in FY2026 [10] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q2, the company expects revenue to decline by 2%-4% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, with adjusted operating profit projected between $260 million and $290 million [10]
3 Top Stocks to Buy With $1,000 in August
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-02 12:00
Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has shown incredible resiliency in 2025, with the S&P 500 nearing new all-time highs despite trade wars and economic uncertainty [1] - There are solid companies trading at reasonable valuations that are worth buying as August approaches, a historically weak month for markets [1] Group 2: Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba's shares are starting to recover after a slump, driven by an improving Chinese economy and strong demand for cloud services, with potential to double in price within five years [4] - The e-commerce marketplaces Taobao and Tmall reported a 12% year-over-year growth in customer management revenue for the March-ending quarter, primarily from fees charged to third-party merchants [5] - Alibaba's revenue growth in e-commerce is supported by initiatives like the integration of Cainiao logistics and new software service fees [6] - Alibaba Cloud is experiencing rapid growth, with AI-related product revenue increasing at a triple-digit rate for seven consecutive quarters, positioning the company for strong growth over the next decade [7] - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 13.5, which is considered a bargain compared to the average S&P 500 P/E ratio of 30, indicating potential for significant upside [8] Group 3: Lululemon (LULU) - Lululemon's stock has declined approximately 45% in 2025, but it is viewed as oversold and trading at a bargain price [9] - The company reported a 7% year-over-year sales increase in the fiscal first quarter, but comparable sales were only up 1%, with a 2% decrease in the Americas region [11] - Lululemon's P/E ratio is currently at 14, and it maintains a strong operating margin of 18.5%, despite a slight decline due to tariffs [12] - Sales in China increased by 22% year-over-year in Q1, providing a positive outlook amidst challenges in the Americas market [13] Group 4: VF Corp (VFC) - VF Corp is considered undervalued, with its stock down about 85% from its peak in 2021, making it a potential investment opportunity [14] - The company showed signs of a turnaround in fiscal Q1, with solid growth in core brands like Timberland (up 11%) and The North Face (up 6%), despite a 14% decline in Vans [16] - VF Corp trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.5, indicating upside potential if it can achieve a profit margin of 5%, which would equate to a P/E ratio of 10 [17] - Continued progress in the turnaround could lead to the stock doubling or tripling in value [18]
V.F. Corp Q1 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Sales Beat Expectations
ZACKS· 2025-07-30 18:50
Core Insights - V.F. Corporation (VFC) reported a narrower-than-expected loss per share in Q1 fiscal 2026, with a sales beat and improved earnings year over year despite a dip in revenues [1][3][9] - The company is progressing with its Reinvent program, aiming for cost savings and improved operating profitability [1][13] Revenue Performance - VFC's net revenues for Q1 fiscal 2026 were $1.76 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.69 billion, with a year-over-year decline of approximately 2% in constant currency [3][4] - The North Face and Timberland brands continued to perform well, while Altra showed strong growth; however, Vans faced challenges due to channel rationalization [2][14] Segment Analysis - Revenues in the Outdoor segment increased by 8% year over year to $812.5 million, while the Active segment saw a decline of 10% to $699.7 million [7] - The All-Other segment reported a revenue increase of 4% year over year to $248.5 million [7] Financial Position - VFC ended Q1 with cash and cash equivalents of $642.4 million and long-term debt of $3.56 billion, with net debt down $1.4 billion from the previous year [8] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of 9 cents per share, payable on September 18, 2025 [8] Future Outlook - For Q2 fiscal 2026, VFC expects revenues to decline by 2% to 4% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income projected between $260 million and $290 million [12] - For the full fiscal 2026, VFC anticipates growth in adjusted operating income and cash flow, driven by strong performance from The North Face, Timberland, and Altra [13][14]
VF(VFC) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-30 13:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q1 revenue of $1.8 billion, flat on a reported basis and down 2% year-over-year in constant dollars, which was better than the guidance of down 3% to down 5% [31][32] - Adjusted gross margin increased by 200 basis points to 54.1%, driven by higher quality inventory and lower discounts [34] - Adjusted loss per share was $0.24 compared to $0.35 in Q1 of the previous year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vans revenue decreased by 15%, with 40% of the decline attributed to channel rationalization actions [12][33] - The North Face grew by 5%, with strong performance in footwear and bags, aiming for higher growth rates in the future [14][32] - Timberland's revenue increased by 9%, reflecting growth across all regions and channels [16][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The APAC region grew by 4%, while the Americas and EMEA regions saw declines of 3% and 2%, respectively [33] - Excluding Vans, the Americas region was up 3% year-over-year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming its operations, improving cost structures, and aiming for growth after two years of resetting [9][11] - A unified product and marketing engine is being built across brands globally, with a focus on premiumization and improved inventory management [10][29] - The company aims to reduce leverage to below 2.5 times by fiscal 2028 while investing in growth [10][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in turning the company back into a growth entity despite current macroeconomic challenges [6][9] - The anticipated impact of tariffs is expected to negatively affect gross profit by $60 million to $70 million in fiscal 2026, but management believes they can mitigate these impacts [38][39] - The company is optimistic about the upcoming back-to-school season and plans to invest more in marketing [110] Other Important Information - The company has changed its segment reporting to better reflect key areas of focus across brands [43] - The company is pursuing a $1.5 billion asset-backed revolving loan to enhance liquidity and flexibility [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were the expectations for the Warp Tour and its impact? - Management expected modest impact initially but saw enormous demand with tickets selling out quickly, indicating strong engagement and merchandise sales [49][52] Question: Can you clarify the $60 million to $70 million gross profit impact from tariffs? - Management confirmed that this impact is mostly in the back half of the year and will be offset through pricing and other actions [57][58] Question: What are the long-term views on gross margin improvement? - Management sees opportunities for gross margin improvement across all brands, particularly through premiumization and better product mix [66][70] Question: How do you expect unit volumes to be affected by price increases? - Management indicated that unit volumes might decrease in line with price increases, but the overall impact is uncertain due to industry-wide effects [78][79] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow and net debt? - Management expects free cash flow to be up year-over-year despite fluctuations in quarterly performance, and net debt is anticipated to decline [118][120]
非常观察|五月财报季,运动品牌谁在领跑谁在掉队
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 05:40
Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.473 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations [1] - The company's operating profit grew 97% to $214 million, with an operating margin increase of 5.4 percentage points to 14.5% [1] - The Arc'teryx brand led the growth with a 28% revenue increase to $664 million, and a 32% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance in China - The Greater China region saw a significant revenue increase of 43% to $446 million [2] - Arc'teryx is identified as a key driver of growth in the outdoor industry, with the professional outdoor sports community being a crucial support [3] Group 3: Lululemon's Growth - Lululemon's Q4 2024 revenue in mainland China grew 46%, contributing to a 41% annual growth in the region, outperforming other markets [6] - The company's global revenue for the fiscal year reached $10.6 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $1.815 billion, up 17.1% [7] Group 4: VF Corporation's Challenges - VF Corporation reported a 4% decline in total revenue for FY 2025, amounting to $9.5 billion, with Q4 revenue down 5% to $2.14 billion [10] - Vans brand significantly underperformed, with a 16% revenue drop to $2.35 billion for the year [12] Group 5: Birkenstock's Performance - Birkenstock reported Q2 2025 revenue of €574 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, with a net profit growth of 47% to €105 million [13] - The company achieved double-digit growth across all major markets, with the Asia-Pacific region growing 30% to €47.8 million [15] Group 6: Under Armour's Transition - Under Armour's Q4 2025 revenue declined 11% to $1.2 billion, with an annual revenue drop of 9% to $5.2 billion, although it exceeded Wall Street expectations [16][18] - The company emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, which contributes approximately half of its Asia-Pacific revenue [18]
Compared to Estimates, V.F. (VFC) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
ZACKS· 2025-05-21 14:31
Core Insights - V.F. Corporation (VFC) reported a revenue of $2.14 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.7% and an EPS of -$0.13, an improvement from -$0.32 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18 billion by 1.62%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of -$0.15 by 13.33% [1] Revenue Performance - Geographic Revenue: - Americas: $995.20 million, below the estimated $1.11 billion, a decline of 11.6% year-over-year [4] - Asia-Pacific: $336.20 million, below the estimated $355.65 million, a decline of 11% year-over-year [4] - Europe: $812.30 million, exceeding the estimated $744.21 million, a decline of 6.6% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Segment: - Active: $645.32 million, below the estimated $753.22 million, a decline of 29.4% year-over-year [4] - Work: $222.17 million, slightly above the estimated $221.17 million, a decline of 7.6% year-over-year [4] - Outdoor: $1.28 billion, exceeding the estimated $1.22 billion, an increase of 4.7% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Brand: - Dickies: $139.30 million, slightly above the estimated $138.68 million, a decline of 14.2% year-over-year [4] - Timberland: $376 million, exceeding the estimated $337.45 million, an increase of 10.1% year-over-year [4] - Vans: $492.60 million, below the estimated $571.91 million, a decline of 22% year-over-year [4] - The North Face: $834.50 million, exceeding the estimated $792.59 million, an increase of 2.5% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Channel: - Direct-To-Consumer: $920.80 million, below the estimated $1 billion, a decline of 15.8% year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - V.F. shares have returned +32.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]
VF(VFC) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-21 13:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 fiscal year 2025 was down 3% year-over-year, aligning with guidance of a decline between 2% to 4% [7][28] - Operating income increased by 400 basis points year-over-year to $22 million, exceeding guidance [7] - Gross margin improved by 560 basis points to 53.4%, driven by lower material costs and reduced discounting [7][30] - Net debt decreased by 26% year-over-year, with leverage reduced by one full turn to 4.1 times [8][31] - Adjusted loss per share improved to negative $0.13 from negative $0.30 in the same quarter last year [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vans revenue declined by 20% in Q4, attributed to strategic actions and reduced storefronts, with 60% of the decline linked to deliberate revenue management [10][11] - The North Face brand saw a revenue increase of 4% in Q4, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rising by 9% [17][28] - Timberland reported a strong performance with a 13% revenue increase in Q4, benefiting from lower discounts [17][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The APAC region experienced a revenue growth of 2%, while The Americas and EMEA regions saw declines of 5% and 2% respectively due to reduced promotional activities [29] - DTC sales were down 3%, while wholesale sales decreased by 2% [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation strategy called "Reinvent," aimed at improving operational profitability and simplifying the business structure for long-term growth [7][30] - Strategic actions include reducing unprofitable storefronts and managing marketplace dynamics to achieve profitable growth [11][12] - The company is diversifying its supply chain and has reduced reliance on China for finished goods to less than 2% [20][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround of Vans, indicating that progress is being made despite current numerical setbacks [10][14] - The company is navigating macroeconomic uncertainties with a proactive approach, leveraging its asset-light model for flexibility [20][22] - Future cash flow is expected to improve year-over-year, with operating cash flow and free cash flow anticipated to rise [33] Other Important Information - The company is not providing full-year guidance but expects Q1 revenue to decline by 3% to 5% on a constant dollar basis [34] - The impact of tariffs is being managed through strategic pricing and cost management initiatives [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on gross margin and free cash flow - Management expects continued improvement in gross margins and free cash flow, with the $313 million free cash flow not including Supreme [41][44] Question: One-time strategic reset actions at Vans - The impact of strategic reset actions will continue into Q1 and Q2, with expectations of fading by Q3 and being eliminated by Q4 [52][56] Question: Free cash flow and debt management - The company plans to use free cash flow and a revolver to manage upcoming debt maturities, with confidence in improving cash flow [61][64] Question: Store count strategy and dividend considerations - The company has aggressively edited its store count, with further optimization expected but heavy lifting largely completed [126][128] - Dividend reductions are on the table if necessary, but no immediate changes are anticipated [132][134] Question: Gross margin components and outlook - Management discussed the contributions to gross margin improvements, including product cost tailwinds and lower promotions, with expectations for these trends to continue [140]
VF(VFC) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-21 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenue decreased by 3%, aligning with guidance of a decline between 2% to 4% [6][28] - Operating income increased by 400 basis points year-over-year to $22 million, exceeding guidance [6] - Gross margin improved by 560 basis points to 53.4%, driven by lower material costs and reduced discounting [6][30] - Net debt decreased by 26% year-over-year, with leverage reduced by one full turn to 4.1 times [7][32] - Adjusted loss per share improved to negative $0.13 from negative $0.30 in Q4 of the previous year [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vans revenue declined by 20% in Q4, following an 8% decline in the prior quarter, with 60% of the decline attributed to strategic actions to eliminate unprofitable business [9][29] - The North Face brand saw a revenue increase of 4% in Q4, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rising by 9% [17][28] - Timberland experienced a strong performance with a 13% revenue increase in Q4, driven by lower discounts and higher margins [17][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The APAC region grew by 2%, while The Americas and EMEA regions saw declines of 5% and 2% respectively due to reduced promotional activity [29] - DTC sales were down 3%, while wholesale sales decreased by 2% [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a transformation strategy called "Reinvent," aimed at improving operational profitability and simplifying the business structure [6][30] - Strategic actions include reducing storefronts and channel inventory in China to set up for long-term growth [11][19] - The company is pursuing brand elevation through channel cleanup and enhanced digital experiences [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround of Vans, indicating that progress is being made despite current numerical setbacks [9][14] - The company is well-positioned to manage tariff impacts through a diversified supply chain and proactive cost management strategies [19][26] - Management remains optimistic about returning to growth and delivering sustainable value creation despite macroeconomic uncertainties [21][22] Other Important Information - The company expects operating cash flow and free cash flow to increase year-over-year, although specific full-year guidance is not provided [34] - The company has strategically reduced its reliance on finished goods sourced from China to less than 2% [19][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on gross margin improvements and free cash flow - Management expects continued improvement in gross margins and free cash flow, with the $313 million free cash flow not including Supreme [40][43] Question: One-time strategic reset actions at Vans - The impact of strategic reset actions will continue into Q1 and Q2, with expectations of fading by Q3 and being gone by Q4 [50][55] Question: Free cash flow and debt management - The company plans to use free cash flow and a revolver to manage upcoming debt maturities, with confidence in improving cash flow [58][61] Question: Health of The North Face brand and DTC momentum - The North Face brand is performing well, with strong DTC sales and plans to increase product offerings [82][84] Question: Tariff impacts and pricing strategies - The company is confident in its ability to offset tariff impacts through strategic pricing and cost management [108][110]