证券研究报告 | 2025年07月22日 运动品牌行业专题 优于大市 如何看待产品周期——以耐克、阿迪达斯、亚瑟士为例 行业趋势：疫情后品牌分化的基本面趋势带来截然不同的行情走势。运动户 外行业 2024 年规模约 4000 亿美元，同比增长 3.8%，行业稳健增长背后品牌 表现显著分化，股价走势差距更为悬殊。观察代表性的国际品牌耐克、阿迪 达斯和亚瑟士股价，以 2019 年初价格为基准，耐克走势呈倒 V 型，前半程 翻倍上涨而后半程全部回吐；阿迪达斯 N 型反转，前期大涨近 80%而后大幅 下跌至-45%水位，再反转至累计上涨 20%；亚瑟士持续新高，累计大涨近 11 倍。剖析三家公司股价成因，估值仅阶段性推波助澜，业绩则是底层驱动力。 耐克：不进则退，产品战略错失良机，心智下滑早于业绩拐点。2019-2021 年耐克股价大幅上涨阶段，业绩稳健增长来自科技引领和大众产品驱动； 2022-2023 年股价下跌后短暂反弹，因供应链紊乱及库存问题初步解决，但 产品端过度依赖经典款（DUNK/AF1）、ZoomX 科技商业化进度不理想埋下隐 忧；2024-2025 年业绩大幅走弱，股价持续大跌后近日企稳，体现在专业 ...

Group 1 - Lamine Yamal, a 17-year-old football prodigy, visited China for the first time to support the National Youth Campus Football League (CHFL) finals held on July 9 [1][3] - Yamal's market value has surged to €200 million following his debut with Barcelona and his contribution to Spain's victory in the 2024 European Championship [1] - The CHFL has seen over 3,000 participants annually since its inception in 1999, with 63 high school teams competing in the 2024-2025 season [3] Group 2 - Adidas has signed a four-year strategic partnership with the Chinese Student Sports Association, significantly investing in the CHFL [3][4] - The company aims to leverage its global resources to promote football culture and accelerate youth football development in China [3] - Adidas previously invited David Beckham to China for a similar initiative, highlighting the brand's commitment to youth sports [3] Group 3 - The Chinese government has implemented policies to promote youth football, including the "Implementation Opinions on the Reform and Development of Youth Football" [5][6] - The goal is to establish a robust youth football training and competition system by 2030, with a significant increase in youth football participation [5] - The policies emphasize a combination of national and market mechanisms to enhance investment in youth football [6] Group 4 - The rise of youth football events is attributed to supportive policies and initiatives aimed at improving student health through sports [10][11] - Various sports brands, including Nike and ASICS, are increasingly engaging with schools to promote sports events and competitions [11][12] - The growing interest in school sports is seen as a market opportunity for sports brands, contributing to a positive development in the sports ecosystem [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Market Supervision Administration reported that 143 products were found to be non-compliant in a recent quality inspection, including notable brands such as Adidas, Jeanswest, and Montagut [1][2]. Group 1: Adidas - A total of 13 non-compliant down products were identified, with issues including pH value, fiber content, and down content [2]. - One specific Adidas down jacket was flagged for non-compliance regarding down content [2]. - This is not the first instance of quality issues for Adidas, as previous inspections in 2021 and 2023 also revealed non-compliance in various products [3]. Group 2: Jeanswest - Jeanswest had 16 non-compliant cotton clothing items, with issues related to fiber content and pH value [4]. - One specific Jeanswest product was found to have non-compliant fiber content [4]. - Jeanswest has been actively innovating and expanding its brand offerings, including launching new product lines and appointing a global ambassador [6]. Group 3: Montagut - Montagut had one non-compliant men's leather jacket due to the presence of harmful aromatic amine dyes [4]. - Montagut has faced quality issues in consecutive years, indicating a potential ongoing concern with product compliance [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses a new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal that significantly impacts the sneaker industry, highlighting Vietnam's position as the manufacturing leader in this sector [1] - Vietnam will incur a 20% tariff on every sneaker exported to the U.S., which could affect pricing and competitiveness in the market [1] Group 2 - The author expresses a strong interest in finance and investing, particularly in sectors such as AI, fintech, and technology, indicating a focus on long-term growth and business analysis [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding business models, earnings performance, and competitive positioning when analyzing publicly traded companies [1]

Group 1 - HSBC has raised the target price for Adidas from €275 to €280 [1]

Group 1 - Adidas has announced sponsorship collaborations with prestigious universities in China, including Fudan University and Tsinghua University, providing professional sports equipment to various high-level sports teams [1][2] - Other brands such as Asics, Li Ning, and Anta are also actively seeking partnerships with universities, indicating a trend in the sports industry to connect with academic institutions [1][2] - The collaboration with universities allows sports brands to tap into the student consumer base, encouraging sports participation and promoting a lifelong sports culture among university students [3][4] Group 2 - Universities chosen for partnerships typically have a strong sports foundation, with institutions like Peking University and Tsinghua University having a long history of high-level sports teams [2] - The growing interest in outdoor sports among university students is reflected in the increasing sports consumption, covering events and professional products [7] - Brands are moving beyond traditional sponsorships to include market-driven initiatives, such as product launches and training camps at university campuses [7][8] Group 3 - Collaborations with universities also allow brands to align their marketing strategies with the educational values and sports culture of the institutions, enhancing brand narrative [4] - Adidas has launched co-branded products with universities, such as a limited edition series with Tsinghua University, which sold out quickly, indicating strong demand [11] - The potential for commercializing university IP products is being explored, with brands creating exclusive items that resonate with students and alumni [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Adidas AG has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade for Adidas reflects an improvement in the company's earnings outlook, which is expected to lead to increased buying pressure and a rise in stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimate Revisions - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as indicated by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [5]. - Institutional investors often rely on earnings estimates to determine the fair value of a company's shares, leading to significant stock price movements based on their buying or selling activities [5]. Performance of Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - The upgrade of Adidas to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11]. Current Earnings Estimates for Adidas - Analysts expect Adidas to earn $4.32 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with a 4.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [9].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of JD.com's Summer Cool Season, featuring a variety of products from well-known brands to help consumers cope with high temperatures during July [1][3][10] - JD.com is collaborating with brands like Lancôme, Anessa, Adidas, and others to offer a wide range of summer essentials including beauty products, clothing, and accessories [1][3] - Promotions include discounts such as "every 300 spent gets 30 off," flash sales starting from 7 yuan, and clearance sales up to 70% off [1][3] Group 2 - The Summer Cool Season will last throughout July, with daily limited-time offers on popular items like Adidas running shoes and seasonal clothing [3] - Featured products include cooling clothing, such as Berghaus sun-protective jackets and Ubras bras with cooling technology, aimed at providing comfort in hot weather [5][7] - The event also highlights travel essentials like large-capacity luggage and stylish accessories, catering to summer vacation needs [8][9]

Core Insights - The pet apparel market is experiencing significant growth, with major brands like LV and Adidas launching pet clothing lines, indicating a trend towards fashionable pet wear [1][3][16] - Despite the hype, the actual market size for pet apparel remains small compared to food and healthcare segments, with apparel being a niche category [3][21] - Consumer perceptions about the necessity of pet clothing vary, with some questioning the practicality and need for pets to wear clothes [3][5] Market Overview - The Chinese pet supplies market is projected to reach 51.3 billion yuan by 2024 [3] - Dog apparel has a penetration rate of 63.5%, while cat apparel lags behind at 43.4%, indicating a stronger demand for dog clothing [3][20] Consumer Behavior - Pet owners are increasingly viewing pet clothing as essential for protection against cold and environmental hazards, especially for certain breeds [8][10] - Social media plays a significant role in driving demand for fashionable pet apparel, as pet owners seek to showcase their pets in stylish outfits [14][18] Brand Strategies - Major brands are integrating pet elements into their existing product lines rather than creating separate sub-brands, allowing for flexibility in product offerings [16][18] - The emotional connection between pet owners and their pets drives consumers to pay a premium for branded pet apparel, reflecting a shift in how pets are perceived in society [18][23] Challenges in the Industry - The complexity of sizing and fit for pet apparel poses significant challenges for brands, as dogs vary greatly in size and shape [20][21] - The return and exchange process for pet clothing is complicated, leading to higher costs for consumers and brands alike [20][21] Future Outlook - There is potential for growth in the pet apparel market through international orders and addressing emotional needs of pet owners [21][23] - Brands must balance practical needs of pets with the emotional desires of owners to succeed in this evolving market [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of attracting the younger generation for the growth of sports brands, with a focus on sponsoring university sports events as a strategic move [1][6][15] - The rise of university sports events has transcended physical boundaries, becoming a public topic and gaining significant attention on social media platforms [2][6] - The collaboration between universities and sports brands is evolving, with dedicated departments being established in universities to enhance event quality and scale [1][8] Group 2 - Recent running events, such as the ASICS x Peking University relay race, have seen participation grow from 500 to nearly 1000 in just two years, indicating a rising interest in campus sports [4][10] - The CURA Adidas Chinese University Road Running League has engaged over 40 universities and 42,000 students, with a total participation exceeding 420,000 in related activities [4][15] - The partnership between brands and universities is not new, but the current trend shows a deeper integration of brand values with university sports events, creating unique event IPs that resonate with both parties [10][14] Group 3 - Sports brands are leveraging university collaborations to enhance their market presence and connect with the younger demographic, which is seen as a critical consumer group for the future [15][16] - The increasing social attention on university sports events provides brands with opportunities to engage directly with young consumers, showcasing product performance and building emotional connections [16][18] - The university environment serves as an ideal testing ground for products, allowing brands to gather feedback from young users and refine their offerings accordingly [18][20] Group 4 - The sponsorship of university sports events enriches the participation experience and fosters a deeper connection between brands and the student community, ultimately benefiting the overall sports ecosystem [20] - The long-term impact of these collaborations could lead to increased sports consumption and the development of talent in sports management and marketing [20] - However, there are concerns about resource allocation, as top universities and popular sports may overshadow lesser-known institutions and events, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in future collaborations [20]