It was one in the morning when Trump was still watching the vote on the "Big, Beautiful" bill in the White House . This was to stop the "Big, Beautiful" bill. The Democratic leader Hakim spoke for 8 hours and 44 minutes in the House of Representatives until his voice was hoarse. "(I hope my Republican colleagues) can come to a conclusion" "That is, we serve the American people." After a fierce game, the bill was finally passed . Trump got what he wanted with "218 to 214 votes." "Motion passed", what exactly ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall positive outlook on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereign credit and maintaining a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. Core Insights - The report projects a first Fed cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][13]. - Global oil demand is tracking year-over-year growth of 410 thousand barrels per day (kbd), but is 130 kbd lower than the forecasted expansion for June [7]. - The dollar smile phenomenon persists, indicating that the dollar's strength is contingent on the nature of events driving defensive behavior [7]. US Rates - Front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, influenced by administration criticism of the Fed, with a healthy labor market indicated by June employment data [3][16]. - Tactical positions include entering 2-year shorts and adding steepeners in the 5s/7s sector while hedging with flatteners in the 10s/30s sector [19][21]. International Rates - Yield curves have bull steepened across most developed markets, with US rates outperforming due to a sharp drop in oil prices and dovish Fed commentary [4][47]. - Euro rates have bear steepened, driven by updated German fiscal numbers and NATO defense spending agreements [4][47]. Commodities - Jewelry demand weakness is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, although vigilance is advised for potential shifts to other metals [7]. Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, projecting key targets for various currency pairs, including EUR/USD at 1.20-1.22 and GBP/USD at 1.42 [66][85]. - The dollar's weakening is anticipated due to moderation in US growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies outside the US [66][71]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests staying overweight on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereigns, with a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. - US policies are expected to dominate the emerging market outlook in the second half of the year, with a slower growth, no-recession base case [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued expectation of USD weakness, suggesting a favorable environment for US multinational companies, particularly large caps, due to their foreign revenue exposure [5][82]. Core Insights - The report posits that the USD's weakening trend is at an intermission, with a projected net decline of 20% expected [3][8]. - A weaker USD is viewed as a significant, underappreciated tailwind for US equity earnings, especially for large-cap companies that derive a substantial portion of their revenue from foreign markets [5][82]. - The report highlights that the USD remains at the upper end of historical ranges, and pro-cyclicality from hedging and index rebalancing are important amplifying factors [5][7]. Summary by Sections USD Weakness and Economic Implications - The report forecasts that USD weakness will persist, driven by a convergence in US rates to global peers and increased risk premiums from FX hedging [5][6]. - Limited economic impact from recent USD weakness is noted, but further depreciation could push headline CPI and GDP, with an estimated increase of 5 basis points to CPI and GDP for every 1% depreciation [5][63]. FX Hedging and Corporate Exposure - FX hedges significantly impact a company's ultimate USD exposure, but limited disclosures complicate forecasting [5][96]. - The report emphasizes the importance of subjective data from earnings calls to understand corporate currency policies and hedging strategies [44][96]. Sector and Industry Analysis - The report identifies sectors with high foreign revenue exposure, including Tech, Materials, and Industrials, as key beneficiaries of dollar weakness [88][89]. - It highlights that larger companies, such as those in the S&P 500, earn approximately 40% of their revenue abroad, positioning them to benefit more from a weaker dollar [84][82]. Trade Ideas - Specific trade ideas are provided, including maintaining long positions in EUR/USD and short positions in USD/JPY and USD/TRY, reflecting the anticipated continued weakness of the USD [7].

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have significantly influenced financial markets, leading to fluctuations in oil prices, the US dollar, and gold, with recent developments indicating a temporary ceasefire that has caused a pullback in these assets [1][3][5][7] Oil Market - Oil prices have shown volatility, with a peak near $78 per barrel before retreating to approximately $65 as traders reassess the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz [3] - The potential for renewed conflict could lead to another spike in oil prices, indicating that future price movements may be driven more by news than technical factors [3] Currency Market - The US dollar index (DXY) rose to 99 points amid conflict but fell back to 98 points following ceasefire news, with support at 97.65 and resistance at 98.40 [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates has not significantly bolstered the dollar, but renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to a resurgence in dollar strength [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have come under pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand following the ceasefire, with current prices around $3323 and key support levels at $3290 and $3260 [7] - The potential for gold to rebound exists if geopolitical tensions escalate again, although the decline in gold prices appears limited due to ongoing uncertainties in other areas such as tariffs [7] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including GDP growth expected at -0.2% for the first quarter, will be closely monitored, alongside Powell's testimony, which may influence market sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to consider their financial situation and needs before relying on the information provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]