January 26, 2026 05:35 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global Rates Whiplash Signals, Flows, & Key Data: A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Last week, 40-year JGB yields surpassed 4% for the first time amid fiscal concerns and MSCI Europe retreated on possible Greenland-related tariffs. Key highlights from last week: Exhibit 1: Morgan Stanley forecasts | Soham Sen | | | --- | --- | | Strategist | | | Soham.Sen1@morganstanley. ...

Wall Street lost steam last week as markets grappled with widening policy uncertainty, which went well beyond Greenland. While earnings continued to drive stock-specific volatility—notably Intel’s 17% plunge—the broader narrative was one of investor fatigue with U.S. policy reversals and an expanding range of potential escalation points.Gold extended its rally, climbing 8.5% amid intensified safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and lingering concerns over Federal Reserve independence. However, the b ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy - **Date**: January 16, 2026 Key Points by Currency USD (US Dollar) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - **Insights**: - The DXY is expected to remain neutral as investors are holding back until clearer trends emerge - Anticipated USD weakness against risk-sensitive currencies such as SEK, AUD, and CAD [2][12][16] EUR (Euro) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bullish - **Insights**: - Upside risks to EUR/USD due to potential USD weakness - Increased negative risk premium on USD could lead to gains in EUR/USD, especially amid domestic and geopolitical volatility [3][17] JPY (Japanese Yen) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - **Insights**: - A resilient US economy and fiscal concerns in Japan may pressure JPY - Potential for imminent FX intervention as indicated by recent comments from the Ministry of Finance [4][18] GBP (British Pound) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - **Insights**: - Tactical bearish stance ahead of inflation and employment data, which may trigger a GBP sell-off - Risks of dovish repricing by the Bank of England could amplify GBP weakness [5][19] CHF (Swiss Franc) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - **Insights**: - Potential downside risks for EUR/CHF due to US tariff rulings - Reduced intervention risk from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [6][20] CAD (Canadian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - **Insights**: - Recommendation to short USD/CAD as Canada diversifies its export partners - Rate convergence through 2026 favors CAD [7][21] AUD (Australian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - **Insights**: - Recommendation to long AUD/USD, with expectations of outperformance ahead of CPI data - Low pricing for a February RBA hike could rise on strong inflation [8][22] NZD (New Zealand Dollar) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - **Insights**: - Mixed labor data and a hawkish shift from the RBNZ have limited NZD's performance - Expected to rise against USD but lag behind AUD [9][13][22] SEK (Swedish Krona) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - **Insights**: - Positive outlook due to global risk demand and growth expectations - Tactical indicators suggest EUR/SEK may be oversold [14][23] NOK (Norwegian Krone) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - **Insights**: - Strong correlation to oil prices may limit gains - Risks of a dovish Norges Bank pivot could weigh on NOK [15][25] Additional Insights - **Trade Ideas**: - Short USD/CAD at 1.3799 with a target of 1.34 - Long AUD/USD at 0.6604 with a target of 0.6900 - Short EUR/SEK at 10.9101 with a target of 10.20 [15][26] - **Market Sentiment**: - Investors are cautious and holding back on positions until clearer trends emerge, indicating a range-bound DXY for the near term [16] - **Economic Indicators to Watch**: - Key economic data releases such as ADP Employment, GDP Revision, Jobless Claims, and CPI are critical for future currency movements [16][17][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from Morgan Stanley's G10 FX strategy conference call, highlighting the current views on major currencies and the underlying economic factors influencing these perspectives.

Summary of FX Markets Weekly Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) market outlook for 2026, discussing various currency pairs and macroeconomic factors influencing currency valuations. Key Points and Arguments Dollar Outlook - The consensus remains bearish on the USD, with no significant pushback from clients on this view [11][12] - The dollar is expected to experience constrained weakness unless the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance [11] - A long-term relationship exists between equity inflows and dollar performance, with foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows being a more reliable indicator for dollar strength [13][16] Capital Inflows and FX Dynamics - Large capital inflows into the US do not necessarily support the dollar; instead, FDI inflows are more critical [13][14] - The domestic and international perspectives on the Japanese yen (JPY) diverge, with international views being more bearish [14][58] Emerging Markets and Carry Trades - The report maintains an overweight (OW) position on emerging market (EM) FX, with a focus on carry-oriented strategies [2] - FX carry trades are well subscribed, but risks associated with volatility shocks are acknowledged [3][31] Central Bank Policies - Significant central bank re-pricing has occurred, particularly for SEK and CAD, with expectations of fewer hikes than currently priced in [39] - The report highlights the importance of fiscal divergence among developed markets (DM), particularly between the US and Japan [14][38] Volatility and Risk Management - FX volatility remains subdued, with concerns about potential shocks from AI-driven market events [48][49] - The report suggests using forward volatility as a hedge due to the persistent softness in realized volatility [50] Euro and Asian Currencies - The euro (EUR) is viewed as a viable funder for regional growth trades, but its strength against Asian currencies may fade if the Fed becomes more hawkish [51][53] - The report emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach to Asian FX, given the diverse drivers affecting currency performance [14] Client Feedback and Market Sentiment - Client feedback indicates a low conviction level regarding the dollar's outlook, with many clients expressing a neutral to mildly bearish stance [12][10] - The report notes that market participants are cautious about the implications of potential fiscal easing ahead of the US midterm elections [30] Other Important Insights - The report discusses the implications of the Supreme Court's decisions regarding Fed governance and its potential impact on the dollar [24][26] - The relationship between US twin deficits and the dollar's performance is highlighted, with projections indicating elevated deficits [18][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the FX Markets Weekly conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the FX market.

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and economic outlook, impacting the financial services and investment banking sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Rate Cut Announcement**: The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75%[6][10][11]. 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: There were three dissents during the meeting; two members favored holding rates steady, while one member advocated for a larger 50 basis point cut[6][20]. 3. **Data Dependency**: Future rate adjustments will be more data-dependent, with Chair Powell indicating that the current rate is at the upper end of the Fed's neutral rate estimates, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward[9][24][25]. 4. **Labor Market Concerns**: The Fed expressed concerns about a cooling labor market, with unemployment rising slightly and payroll job growth averaging only 40,000 per month since April[26][30]. 5. **Inflation Outlook**: Inflation pressures are expected to remain, with the Fed projecting above-target inflation into 2027, indicating a trade-off between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation[33][34]. 6. **Economic Projections**: The Fed upgraded its GDP growth projections for 2026 and 2027 to 2.3% and 2.0%, respectively, reflecting a modest improvement in economic activity[35][36]. 7. **Reserve Management Purchases**: The Fed will initiate purchases of Treasury bills at a pace of $40 billion per month to maintain ample reserves, which is distinct from quantitative easing[12][15][77]. 8. **Market Reactions**: The announcement led to a positive response in agency mortgages and a rally in Treasury yields, indicating market confidence in the Fed's approach[58][97]. Additional Important Content 1. **Future Rate Cuts**: The Fed is expected to consider further rate cuts in January and April, contingent on labor market data and inflation trends[9][30][31]. 2. **Risks to Economic Outlook**: The Fed sees a more balanced risk outlook compared to previous meetings, with fewer members indicating downside risks to GDP growth and fewer concerns about rising unemployment[37][39]. 3. **Currency Outlook**: The USD is expected to decline against AUD and CAD, supported by stronger local labor markets and central bank policies in those regions[84][85]. 4. **Housing Market Challenges**: Powell noted significant challenges in the housing market, including low supply and the impact of previously low mortgage rates on mobility[101]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the FOMC meeting, highlighting the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy amid evolving economic conditions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its associated risks, particularly in relation to global economic conditions and monetary policy dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Weakening Expectations**: The expectation is for the USD to weaken over the next year, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, due to falling US real yields and narrowing growth differentials with the rest of the world [8][11][12] 2. **Growth Convergence**: US growth is projected to slow to approximately **1.3% in 2026**, converging with growth rates abroad, which is consistent with the "dollar smile" framework [27][28] 3. **Policy Risks**: The narrowing of the USD's discount to yield-implied fair value is anticipated, with expectations that it may re-widen due to ongoing trade policy and Federal Reserve independence risks [8][11][40] 4. **Fiscal Concerns Abroad**: Easing fiscal concerns in countries like Japan, the UK, and France are expected to reduce the positive premium on the USD, contributing to its decline [8][50][52] 5. **Current USD Positioning**: USD positioning is currently slightly long, indicating a shift from previous short positions, which reduces the risk of significant price swings [12][67] Additional Important Insights 1. **Interest Rate Forecasts**: The forecast indicates that **10-year TIPS yields** will decline to **1.25%** by mid-2026 and further to **0.9%** by the end of next year, contributing to a bearish environment for the USD [14][15] 2. **Trade Recommendations**: Recommendations include maintaining short positions on USD against currencies such as EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, and AUD, with specific target prices provided for each currency pair [16][69] 3. **Risks to USD Outlook**: Upside risks to the USD could arise from stronger-than-expected US growth or a downturn in sentiment regarding investment opportunities outside the US [11][34][36] 4. **Yield Differential Dynamics**: The narrowing of US-RoW rate differentials is expected, with **2-year US yields** projected to decline to **2.0%** by next year, while **2-year German yields** are expected to decrease to **1.6%**, significantly compressing the spread [20][21] 5. **Fiscal Sustainability**: Concerns about fiscal sustainability in Japan and the UK are expected to ease, which may further weigh on the USD as these countries stabilize their fiscal positions [50][52][61] Conclusion The conference call presents a comprehensive analysis of the USD's outlook, emphasizing the interplay between interest rates, growth differentials, and fiscal policies. The overall sentiment leans towards a bearish outlook for the USD, with specific trade strategies recommended to capitalize on anticipated currency movements.

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy Core Points and Arguments 1. **USD Bear Regime**: The Federal Reserve's shift in reaction function indicates a prolonged USD bear regime, leading to a significant and broad sell-off of the USD [7][10][11] 2. **Expansion of USD Sell List**: The USD sell list has been expanded to include AUD (Australian Dollar) and CAD (Canadian Dollar), in addition to existing recommendations for EUR/USD and USD/JPY [7][18] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The current market dynamics show falling real rates and widening breakevens, contributing to widespread USD weakness [7][10][11] 4. **Impact of US Government Shutdown**: A potential US government shutdown is expected to be negative for the USD, with the extent of the impact depending on the Fed's perceived reaction [7][35][36] 5. **Carry Trade Considerations**: The carry trade remains a significant headwind for USD shorts, but market expectations suggest a decrease in the DXY's carry by nearly 100 basis points over the next 12 months, which would support USD shorts [7][19][29] 6. **Performance of Currencies**: Historical data indicates that currencies tend to strengthen against the USD 67-84% of the time during a USD bear regime [12][16] 7. **Trade Recommendations**: Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, and AUD/USD, while shorting USD/JPY and USD/CAD [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Fed's Focus on Employment**: The Fed's current focus on employment over inflation suggests a longer duration of the USD bear regime, as market participants may expect a more significant response to labor market changes [11][17] 2. **Risk Premium from Government Shutdown**: The estimated risk premium for the USD due to a government shutdown is currently around -4%, indicating a potential increase in USD-negative sentiment [33][36] 3. **Long-term Catalysts for AUD and CAD**: Local factors such as RBA policies and FX-hedging flows are identified as long-term catalysts for AUD, while CAD is expected to decline due to its sensitivity to rate differentials and productivity boosts from trade barrier removals [22][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of the USD bear regime and the strategic recommendations provided by Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and the **cross-border flows** as analyzed by BofA Global Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consolidation of FX Flows**: The FX flows in Q3 are characterized by consolidation, particularly after significant positioning adjustments in the first half of the year. Investors have favored USD, CHF, and emerging market (EM) currencies against JPY, GBP, and CAD [1][7][8]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: Among BofA investors, USD short positions are relatively light compared to historical levels, indicating a cautious approach towards USD selling [4][5]. 3. **Hedge Fund Activity**: Hedge Funds have shown a notable demand for Brazilian Real (BRL) and have been net sellers of EURGBP, while also supporting GBP recently [7][8][13]. 4. **G10 Currency Trends**: GBP has benefitted the least from USD supply year-to-date, with Hedge Funds primarily supporting it, joined by Asset Managers in the last week [9][10]. 5. **Emerging Market (EM) Focus**: Latin American currencies have seen strong demand in Q3, with BRL demand highlighted. In Asia, there was notable demand for Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), while in EMEA, Hungarian Forint (HUF) demand was significant amid geopolitical developments [13][20]. 6. **FX Options and Futures**: The report includes a snapshot of FX options and futures flows, indicating varied positioning across different currencies, with USD options showing a positive z-score recently [22]. Additional Important Details 1. **Aggregate Positioning Data**: The report provides detailed aggregate positioning data for various currencies, indicating shifts in investor sentiment and positioning over time [24][32]. 2. **Risk Considerations**: The report emphasizes that trading ideas and investment strategies discussed may involve significant risks and are not suitable for all investors, highlighting the need for experience and financial resources to absorb potential losses [6]. 3. **Future Reports**: The next report on Liquid Cross Border Flows is scheduled for release on September 1st, indicating ongoing monitoring of FX flows and positioning [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the FX market and investor behavior.

Summary of Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market, analyzing various currencies against the US dollar (USD) and providing strategic insights for investors. Key Currency Views USD (US Dollar) - **View**: Bearish - **Skew**: Bearish - The DXY is expected to weaken, particularly against EUR, JPY, and GBP. The risk premium has largely driven the post-Liberation Day move, with potential for further increases in risk premium [2][12][17]. EUR (Euro) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - EUR/USD is under upward pressure due to increased USD-negative and EUR-positive risk premiums, alongside a compression in Fed-ECB rate expectations [3][18]. JPY (Japanese Yen) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Optimism regarding a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and concerns about the US labor market may lead to speculation about policy convergence, reducing appetite for JPY carry trades [4][19]. GBP (British Pound) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - GBP/USD is seen as an attractive option for investors, reflecting a carry-neutral expression of a USD-negative, Europe-positive view. The carry remains crucial for GBP's outperformance [5][21]. CHF (Swiss Franc) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - Short CHF positions are attractive from a carry perspective, but much of the CHF-negative tariff news is already priced in, potentially leading to underwhelming growth expectations [6][22]. CAD (Canadian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Anticipation of a decline in USD/CAD, even if upcoming CPI shows signs of deceleration. The convergence of US-Canada rates is expected to weigh on USD/CAD [7][25]. AUD (Australian Dollar) - **View**: Bullish - **Skew**: Bullish - Strong domestic fundamentals and elevated yields could lead AUD/USD to re-test 0.6600, with potential upside towards 0.6900 if CPI surprises positively [8][26]. NZD (New Zealand Dollar) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - A 25bp cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is fully priced in, but stronger-than-expected growth raises the risk of an NZD-positive surprise if the OCR forecast does not decline [9][27]. SEK (Swedish Krona) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Neutral - The upcoming Riksbank meeting is not expected to be a major catalyst, but a rate cut in September is seen as underpriced [14][29]. NOK (Norwegian Krone) - **View**: Neutral - **Skew**: Bearish - A bearish tilt on NOK is noted, with expectations of a lower trough rate from Norges Bank, which may not be fully priced in by the market [16][30]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators such as CPI, jobless claims, and PMIs, which could influence currency movements [17][21][25]. - The analysis suggests that the USD's decline since April is primarily driven by risk premium dynamics, with potential for further declines if US rates converge lower towards global peers [12][17]. Trade Ideas - **Long GBP/CHF**: Entry at 1.0927, target 1.12, stop at 1.055 - **Short USD/JPY**: Entry at 147.04, target 135, stop at 151 - **Long EUR/USD**: Entry at 1.1686, target 1.20, stop at 1.11 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency pairs, including short CNH against an equal-weighted basket (EUR, AUD, KRW) at 4/5, long EUR/INR at 4/5, and long USD/HKD outright at 4/5 [6][10][16] Core Insights - The report suggests a bias towards a weaker USD, despite some short-term headwinds from stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data [8][12] - Key focus points include potential changes in US trade agreements and the influence of Fed Chair Powell's position on USD strength [11][20] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring developments in US tariffs, particularly concerning Japan and other major trading partners [19][20] Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level on short CNH against an equal-weighted basket has been raised to 4/5, targeting a 4% return by the end of July [11] - Long EUR/INR is favored with a conviction level of 4/5, driven by RBI's bias to maintain FX reserves and local growth slowdown [17] - Short USD/TWD is maintained at a high conviction level of 4/5, with expectations of continued foreign equity inflows and robust local fundamentals [15] G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is retained at a conviction level of 4/5 due to fiscal pressures on GBP and potential for further deterioration in economic data [21] - Short USD/JPY recommendations are maintained, with expectations of downward pressure on USD against JPY amid rising tariff risks [19][20] - The report indicates a modestly positive outlook for AUD, with expectations of a rate cut from the RBA [22] Asia Rates Strategy - Conviction on pay 10y HK IRS is raised to 4/5 due to increased HKMA intervention and expectations of upward pressure on USD/HKD forwards [25] - The conviction on pay 5y outright in China is maintained at 4/5, while the conviction on 2s5s steepener is reduced to 3/5 [26] - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with limited near-term catalysts expected [27]