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2025智驾“大逃杀”,谁能解决“长尾问题”?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-05 07:25
Core Insights - The rapid commercialization of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models is redefining the technical threshold for advanced intelligent driving [1] - The competition surrounding VLA will significantly influence the future competitive landscape of Chinese automotive companies and may lead to a reshuffling of the entire intelligent driving industry [7] Group 1: VLA Model Development - Li Auto has launched its VLA driver model with the flagship electric vehicle i8, while Yuanrong Qixing released its self-developed VLA model, DeepRoute IO 2.0, on August 26, covering approximately 200,000 vehicles [2] - XPeng Motors introduced a new generation VLA architecture at the P7 launch on August 27, claiming a latency of less than 100 ms and a planning frame rate of 20 Hz, setting a new benchmark for mass production [3] - The VLA model's ability to abstract and categorize real-world scenarios through language enhances its generalization capabilities compared to traditional end-to-end models [8][12] Group 2: Technical and Economic Challenges - The VLA model requires significant computational power, with Li Auto and XPeng utilizing cloud clusters of 13 EFLOPS and 8 EFLOPS, respectively, while many smaller companies are limited to 0.2-0.6 EFLOPS [14] - The data requirements for VLA are substantial, necessitating the collection and annotation of visual-language-action triplets, with 90% of the training data sourced from 2.93 billion kilometers of real vehicle logs [13] - The cost of training a VLA model can reach 12-15 million RMB per session, which is a significant portion of the annual R&D budget for smaller companies [15] Group 3: Industry Restructuring - The high costs associated with VLA models create survival challenges for smaller automotive companies, which may struggle to compete against larger firms with established technological advantages [19][29] - The transition from rule-based algorithms to VLA models requires a gradual and systematic approach, making it difficult for many second-tier brands to replicate the success of leading companies [21][23] - The VLA model's emergence may lead to a significant industry reshuffle, with many mid-tier companies potentially becoming "outsourcing providers" or low-end manufacturers [24][30] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The VLA model's introduction is expected to alter the competitive dynamics, with companies like Huawei and Momenta currently holding a dominant market share in intelligent driving [45] - The VLA model's multi-modal learning and reasoning capabilities allow companies like Li Auto and XPeng to achieve performance levels close to those of larger competitors in long-tail scenarios [48] - The year 2025 could mark a pivotal moment for both leading companies and VLA practitioners, potentially leading to a reversal of fortunes in the intelligent driving market [51]