Company Overview - The company originated as a yeast base established in Yichang in 1984 and was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2000. Currently, it operates 16 yeast factories globally, with a fermentation capacity exceeding 450,000 tons in 2024. The domestic market share is nearly 55%, making it the largest in Asia, while the global market share exceeds 20%, ranking second worldwide. [1] Investment Logic - Revenue Growth: The company is set to anchor its capacity as the global leader, with a mid-term capacity exceeding 600,000 tons and an estimated output value of approximately 24 billion yuan. Domestic revenue growth is slowing due to macroeconomic demand and industry competition, while overseas markets are becoming new growth engines, with domestic and international revenue CAGR projected at 6.3% and 26.5% from 2021 to 2024, respectively. The overseas revenue proportion is expected to exceed 50% in the medium to long term. [2] - Business Expansion: The company is actively developing high-value-added derivatives such as yeast extract (YE) and yeast protein, capitalizing on trends towards lower salt and healthier products. YE is projected to grow into a significant product with a volume of 150,000 tons, with a potential 23-fold growth space compared to developed countries. Yeast protein is still in the development stage but has vast market potential. [2] Profitability - Cost Recovery: The company has seen a recovery in costs after high levels, with net profit margins expected to recover to over 10% by 2027. Core raw material costs, particularly molasses, which account for 25-30% of total costs, have been high due to supply-demand mismatches. The company has started building hydrolyzed sugar production capacity to replace 30% of molasses. [3] - Depreciation and Capacity Optimization: Depreciation expenses are projected to be 710 million yuan and 810 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, accounting for about 10% of main business costs. The company anticipates a slowdown in capacity construction speed in the early stages of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with profit margins expected to improve under an overseas self-production and self-sales model. [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.58 billion yuan, 1.94 billion yuan, and 2.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 23%, and 15%. Corresponding EPS is projected at 1.82 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 2.57 yuan per share, with PE ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x. The target price is set at 49.25 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating. [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned well in the yeast industry, benefiting from an improved competitive landscape, structural growth in global demand, and alleviated cost pressures. The yeast industry has undergone a consolidation phase, with smaller players exiting the market, leading to a more rational competition among leading firms [4][5] - The company has established a strong moat through its scale advantages and technological accumulation, maintaining reasonable profit levels in bidding processes and avoiding vicious competition [4] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the coming years, with significant profit elasticity and long-term investment value [5][14] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 41.81 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 363 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 358 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 8.68 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 8.57 billion shares [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.97 [3] Industry Dynamics - The yeast industry has seen rapid capacity expansion followed by a consolidation phase due to ongoing cost pressures and changing market demands. The competitive landscape is stabilizing as leading companies focus on quality, service, and technology rather than price wars [4][5] - The global yeast production capacity exceeds 2.1 million tons, with the company ranking among the top three players in the industry, holding over 20% of the global market share [4] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market has reached a bottom and is showing signs of weak recovery, with the company enhancing its distribution channels and dealer systems to improve market penetration [8] - The demand for natural, healthy, and functional food ingredients is growing, which, combined with the exit of smaller competitors, is expected to lead to a rebound in the company's domestic business [8] International Market Strategy - The company's overseas business is a key growth driver, maintaining rapid double-digit growth since 2022. The company aims to increase its revenue share from international markets through comprehensive product sales and channel penetration in emerging markets [6][7] - The company has established local operations in various regions, including Egypt and Russia, to enhance market presence and operational efficiency [6][7] Cost Management - The company is benefiting from a decline in molasses prices, which are expected to continue decreasing, leading to improved profit margins [9] - The company is actively developing hydrolyzed sugar replacement technology, which is anticipated to further enhance cost efficiency and product applications [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 12.19%, 10.75%, and 9.46% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 16.51 billion yuan, 19.17 billion yuan, and 22.01 billion yuan respectively [14][16] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.90 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.54 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 19, and 16 [14][16]