报表结构拆分：1）25Q2 归母净利率同比+5.2pct 至8.6%，其中毛利率同比-0.3pct 至60.6%、销售费用 率-3.3pct、管理费用率-1.2pct，表观利润率压力至深时刻已过，利润率已至修复通道，税负节奏变动期 内所得税负降低也利于利润弹性提升；公司内部持续推进降本增效+费用精细化落地，预计25H2 费用 率会加速优化。2）25H1 末合同负债余额1.6 亿元，环比-0.5 亿元，考虑合同负债环比变量后25Q2 营收 同比-1%；25Q2 销售收现11.5 亿元，同比-24.2%。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计25-27 年收入分别-4.9%/+8.9%/+14.5%；归母净利分别+121.2%/+20.8%/+28.1%，对应归母净利 分别7.65/9.24/11.83 亿元；EPS 为2.30/2.77/3.55 元，公司股票现价对应PE 估值分别为26.5/22.0/17.1 倍，维持"买入"评级。 业绩简评 2025 年8 月22 日，公司披露25H1 业绩，期内实现营收27.0 亿元，同比-17.4%；实现归母净利4.4 亿 元，同比-25.0%。其中，25Q2实现营收11.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery in June's profit growth is primarily due to improved cost pressures and a rebound in revenue's contribution to profit year-on-year. The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in June increased by 4.6 percentage points to -4.4% [3][8][55] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit the downward space for profits, as it helps alleviate cost pressures and supports the recovery of internal demand [4][24][56] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In June, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue year-on-year was 2.5%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.7%. Meanwhile, cumulative profit year-on-year decreased by 1.8%, compared to a previous decline of 1.1% [2][7] - The actual revenue growth rate in June saw a rebound, with the consumption manufacturing chain benefiting significantly from exports, rising by 1 percentage point to 8.8% year-on-year. However, the coal and metallurgy chain's revenue growth continued to decline, falling by 0.3 percentage points to -0.9% [4][20][56] Cost Structure and Pressure - The cost pressure for industrial enterprises eased in June, primarily due to lower costs in the petrochemical and metallurgy chains. The cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.2%, down 32.3 basis points year-on-year [3][13][55] - The cost rate for the petrochemical chain saw a significant decline, down 37.5 basis points to -0.1%. In contrast, the downstream consumer manufacturing sector faced higher cost rates, which increased by 82.1 basis points to 83.1% [3][13][55] Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% in June. However, the actual inventory, excluding price factors, increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.3% year-on-year [42][57] - Upstream inventory growth showed a notable increase, rising by 3.9 percentage points to 21.5% [42][57] Sector Performance - The profit growth rate for state-owned and foreign enterprises showed significant improvement in June, with year-on-year increases of 12.5 percentage points to -8.4% and 17.9 percentage points to 10.9%, respectively [36][57] - In terms of revenue, the industrial sectors such as instruments, automobiles, and petroleum coal processing experienced substantial growth, with year-on-year increases of 7.2, 4.2, and 3.6 percentage points, respectively [34][57]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. legislative actions, particularly the tax reduction bill passed by the House of Representatives, and its potential impact on the economy, including deficits and interest rates [6][10][17]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article analyzes the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump's tariffs, questioning the legality and future implications of such tariffs on trade [3][7]. - It highlights the ongoing "pressure test" series on tariffs, focusing on how these legal and legislative changes may affect market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about an impending "storm" in U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that the tax reduction bill could exacerbate deficits and influence interest rates [9][10]. - It discusses new employment trends based on recent wage data, identifying sectors experiencing wage increases and those showing signs of "anti-involution" [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies following the tax bill's passage, suggesting that new policies may help stabilize fiscal spending and support economic recovery [13][14]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a continuous increase in automobile sales, indicating a strong performance in the automotive sector despite broader economic challenges [15][16]. - It mentions that industrial production remains stable, although infrastructure projects have seen a decline, reflecting mixed signals in economic recovery [16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing positive year-on-year growth, indicating a stable business foundation and ongoing strategic adjustments in product lines and market focus [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.794 billion yuan, up 8.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 370 million yuan, up 16.02% year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit margin improved to 9.75%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs and improved efficiency [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 25.97%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower sugar molasses procurement prices and strong demand for small packaged yeast [2]. Business Segments - The yeast and deep processing products segment generated revenue of 2.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, while the sugar business continued to decline, with revenues of 157 million yuan, down 60.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is gradually divesting from low-margin sugar operations, leading to an improved product mix [1]. - Domestic revenue was slightly down by 0.3% to 2.099 billion yuan, while international revenue grew by 22.9% to 1.684 billion yuan, reflecting successful overseas market expansion efforts [1]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about domestic demand recovery and continued expansion in overseas markets, which is expected to enhance profit margins [3]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.669 billion yuan, 1.914 billion yuan, and 2.184 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3].