以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者Eastland 妙投APP . 近年来，特斯拉核心业务疲软，销量上不去、新车出不来、利润在缩水，FSD订阅收入增长极为缓 慢。至于人形机器人，Model 2/Q、Cybercab销量不及预期、4680电池量产拖了几年，投资人凭什么 相信Optimus能迅速量产、撑起特斯拉的万亿估值？ Model Y和FSD 13都是现成的，拿来搞Robotaxi测试，唤起投资人对"打开万亿级出行市场"的憧憬， 马斯克貌似打出最后一张牌。 根据陆续传出的消息，Robotaxi内测状况频发：误入对向车道、突然急刹、在路口或六车道路中央让 乘客下车、打左转向灯却直行……由于坐副驾的安全员及时接管，没有造成事故。 乐观地说，Robotaxi打开"万亿级出行市场"是远水不解近渴。悲观地说，马斯克已经没牌了！ 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 作者｜Eastland 头图｜视觉中国 2025年6月22日，特斯拉Robotaxi（ 无人驾驶出租车 ）在德州指定区域启动内测。用于测试的20辆 Model Y搭载FSD 13系统。但在马斯克心目中，未来Robota ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant challenges in its core business, with declining sales, slow innovation, and increasing competition, leading to skepticism about its future growth and valuation potential. Group 1: Robotaxi and Future Plans - Tesla's Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) testing has begun in Texas with 20 Model Y vehicles equipped with FSD 13, aiming for a million Cybercabs by 2027 [1][3] - Elon Musk's announcement on social media led to an 8.23% stock price surge, but subsequent trading days erased those gains, indicating market skepticism [2] - The Robotaxi initiative is seen as a last-ditch effort to revive investor interest amid declining sales and innovation concerns [3] Group 2: Sales Performance and Challenges - Tesla's delivery growth has slowed significantly, with 2023 deliveries at 1.81 million, a 37.7% increase, but projected to decline to 1.79 million in 2024, a 1.1% decrease [5][6] - The main reasons for the sales slowdown include outdated models and delayed launches of new, more affordable vehicles [7][8] - The anticipated Model Q, aimed at boosting sales, has faced delays, further complicating Tesla's market position [9][11] Group 3: Profitability Issues - Tesla's gross profit margin has fallen below 10%, with Q1 2025 gross profit margin at 11.3%, significantly impacted by declining vehicle prices and increased competition [13][17] - The company's reliance on carbon credit sales has resurfaced, with carbon credit revenue accounting for 141.7% of net profit in Q1 2025, raising concerns about sustainable profitability [27][30] - Compared to BYD, Tesla's gross profit per vehicle has decreased sharply, with projections indicating a significant drop in overall gross profit from $17.6 billion in 2022 to $10.6 billion in 2024 [24][26] Group 4: FSD Revenue and Future Outlook - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription revenue has been slow to grow, with projections for 2025 indicating only $8.4 billion in confirmable revenue, insufficient to cover R&D costs [41][42] - The FSD revenue model is under scrutiny, as the company struggles to convert a large enough vehicle base into profitable subscription income [43]