Vi e w p o i n t | 01 Dec 2025 15:29:33 ET │ 14 pages China Internet Global Aspiration of China AI Assistant Chat: From Doubao To Dola CITI'S TAKE As highlighted in our 1H26 outlook, with AI adoption brisk, competition among China's AI players in 2026 could intensify – from AI cloud infra, to chatbots, to applications. In addition to domestic markets, penetration to global markets has become an important aspiration for Chinese Internet/AI companies, to export AI technology to global users and, more importan ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet sector is expected to lead global returns with a remarkable 36.5% growth in 2025, but the real competition will unfold in 2026 around artificial intelligence (AI) [1][3] Group 1: AI Competition Themes - The competition in China's AI sector in 2026 will focus on three main themes: AI cloud infrastructure, AI chatbots, and AI applications [5] - Major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are vying for user traffic through their AI chatbots, aiming to secure key entry points for future ecosystem commercialization [3][5] Group 2: AI Cloud Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba and Baidu are leading a capital race in AI cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching approximately 120 billion RMB over the past four quarters and plans to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years [6] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Baidu's AI cloud revenue also saw a 21% year-on-year increase, reaching 6.2 billion RMB [6] Group 3: AI Chatbot User Acquisition - AI chatbots are defined as the "traffic entry point" of the AI era, with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent heavily investing in user acquisition [9] - ByteDance's chatbot "Doubao" leads the Chinese market with 197 million monthly active users (MAU) as of October 2025 [9] Group 4: Vertical AI Applications - Companies in vertical sectors like Meituan, Ctrip, and Didi are training proprietary AI agents using their exclusive data to enhance user engagement and explore new monetization opportunities [13] - Ctrip's AI travel assistant "TripGenie" saw its user base grow by over 200% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [13] Group 5: Global Expansion of AI Applications - Chinese AI applications are accelerating their global expansion, with ByteDance's products ranking fourth and fifth globally in MAU [15] - Combining Doubao's 197 million MAU in China with Dola's 47 million overseas users results in a total of approximately 250 million MAU, placing ByteDance's AI chat products third globally [15] Group 6: Performance Review and Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, 27 out of 44 internet companies exceeded profit expectations, attributed to cost optimization and productivity gains from AI [18] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with the average revenue per user (ARPU) rebounding to 41 RMB, a 13.3% year-on-year increase [18] - The tourism sector shows resilience, with tourism spending as a percentage of GDP at 4.3% in 2024, indicating further growth potential [19]

2025年，中国互联网板块以36.5%的惊人回报率领跑全球，但真正的故事将在2026年围绕人工智能全面展开。 据追风交易台消息，花旗在12月1日发布的《中国互联网2026年上半年展望》报告中表示，2026年中国AI领域的竞争将围绕三大主题展开：AI云基础设 施、AI聊天机器人以及AI应用。报告认为，阿里巴巴、字节跳动和腾讯等主要参与者正争相通过旗下的AI聊天机器人抢占用户流量，以期在AI时代锁 定未来生态系统商业化的关键入口。 分析师Alicia Yap等人强调，这场"用户流量地盘争夺战"将是中国互联网巨头2026年的关键阿里巴巴和腾讯被视为核心AI投资标的，而字节跳动凭借其 AI应用在全球市场的迅猛扩张，已成为不可忽视的颠覆性力量，其AI聊天应用全球月活用户（MAU）总计已冲至全球第三。 与此同时，AI带来的生产力提升将释放更多休闲娱乐需求，利好游戏和旅游等具有稳定盈利能力的行业。花旗认为，由于地缘政治风险和AI供应链限 制，中国互联网公司的估值可能将继续低于全球同行。 2026年AI竞赛：三大主题全面展开 报告预测，2026年中国AI领域的竞争将非常激烈，主要聚焦于三个层面。这不仅是技术之争，更是未来商业 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Internet and AI industry**, particularly the competitive landscape of AI chatbots and their global aspirations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Adoption and Competition**: The rapid adoption of AI is expected to intensify competition among Chinese AI players in 2026, covering areas from AI cloud infrastructure to chatbots and applications [1][3] 2. **Global Market Penetration**: Chinese Internet and AI companies are increasingly looking to penetrate global markets to export AI technology and explore monetization opportunities, as direct-to-consumer monetization in China is challenging [1][5] 3. **ByteDance's Position**: ByteDance's AI assistant, Dola, along with Doubao, has achieved a combined total of approximately **250 million MAUs**, ranking it as the **3 AI chat globally** [1][3][11] 4. **Dola's Growth in Emerging Markets**: Dola has shown significant growth in emerging markets, with MAUs in Indonesia rising from **7.8 million** in July 2025 to **17.4 million** in November 2025, and in the Philippines from **9 million** to **12.5 million** in the same period [4][31] 5. **Competitive Landscape in China**: In China, Doubao leads with **197 million MAUs** and **54 million DAUs** as of October, followed by DeepSeek and Tencent's Yuanbao [2][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Challenges in Monetization**: Many AI chatbots face difficulties in charging subscription fees directly from consumers, prompting a shift towards global markets [5][48] 2. **Potential Threats to Local Services**: If Dola becomes a dominant AI gateway in emerging markets, it could challenge the relevance of local e-commerce platforms like Shopee and superapps like Grab [5][48] 3. **Dola's Compliance Issues**: Dola, which was previously known as Cici, faces compliance challenges due to its need to access local content and understand cultural nuances, leading it to utilize widely accepted overseas models like GPT and Gemini instead of Doubao's LLM [47][45] 4. **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of the progress of Doubao and Dola is essential to assess their impact on the competitive landscape in both China and global markets, particularly regarding their potential challenges to major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [49]