Core Insights - Century Aluminum Company reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, highlighting a significant decrease in net income due to operational challenges and exceptional items [1][5][11]. Fourth Quarter 2025 Highlights - Shipments of primary aluminum decreased by 14% sequentially to 140,257 tonnes, primarily due to idled production at the Iceland facility caused by equipment failure [6][7]. - Net sales for Q4 2025 increased slightly to $633.7 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and regional premiums [8]. - Reported net income attributable to Century stockholders was $1.8 million, a decrease of $13.1 million from Q3 2025 [7]. - Adjusted net income attributable to Century stockholders improved to $128.2 million, up $70.3 million sequentially [7][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $170.6 million, reflecting a sequential improvement of $69.5 million [8][9]. Full Year 2025 Highlights - Total shipments of primary aluminum for the year decreased by 5% to 647,112 tonnes [10]. - Net sales for FY 2025 increased by $307.6 million to $2.5 billion, primarily due to higher realized aluminum prices [10]. - Reported net income attributable to Century stockholders was $41.8 million, down $295.0 million from FY 2024 [11]. - Adjusted net income for FY 2025 was $253.8 million, an improvement of $152.4 million from the previous year [11][12]. - Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025 was $425.1 million, an increase of $180.9 million compared to FY 2024 [12]. Operational Developments - In January 2026, Century announced a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new smelter in Oklahoma, marking the first new primary aluminum smelter in the U.S. since 1980 [8]. - The company also announced plans to restart over 50,000 MT of idled production at the Mt. Holly facility by the end of Q2 2026 [8]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2025, Century had cash and cash equivalents of $134.2 million and total liquidity of $418.0 million [8][9]. - The company reported a gross profit of $256.4 million for FY 2025, compared to $172.0 million in FY 2024 [11][21].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa of Australia has reached an agreement with the Australian Federal Government to modernize the approvals framework for its mining activities, enhancing environmental assessments and operational clarity through a Strategic Assessment process [1] Group 1: Strategic Assessment and Environmental Commitments - The Strategic Assessment will evaluate current and future mining areas until 2045, focusing on the impacts on significant flora and fauna [1] - Alcoa will limit land clearing to 800 hectares per year and aims to increase rehabilitation efforts to 1,000 hectares annually by 2027 [1] - The company has committed to investing over A$15 million by 2029 to enhance knowledge of the Northern Jarrah Forest and to implement measures for protecting public drinking water [1] Group 2: Financial Implications and Operational Impact - Alcoa will incur a charge of $19 million related to environmental reserves due to historical clearing, with cash outlays expected in 2026 [1] - In 2024, Alcoa's Australian operations invested A$2.7 billion with over 1,700 local suppliers, retaining more than 70% of revenue generated in Australia within the country [1] - The company provides direct and indirect employment for approximately 5,500 people and supports additional jobs in local communities [1] Group 3: Future Mining Operations - The Strategic Assessment does not affect ongoing environmental assessments for the Myara North and Holyoake mine regions, with mining in these areas anticipated to start no earlier than 2029 [1] - Alcoa expects bauxite quality to remain consistent with recent grades until new mining operations commence [1]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) shares have increased by 65.4% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 59.9% and the S&P 500's growth of 3.8% [1][8] - The stock closed at $63.15, below its 52-week high of $66.95 but significantly above its 52-week low of $21.53, indicating strong market sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health [3] Business Performance - The Aluminum segment is experiencing strong demand, particularly in electrical and packaging markets, with production increasing by 5% year-over-year to 2,319 kilo metric tons in 2025 [11] - Alcoa's Alumina segment is benefiting from improved productivity, although the closure of the Kwinana refinery has impacted production and shipment volumes [13] - The company expects aluminum production in 2026 to be between 2.4-2.6 million tonnes, with shipments anticipated to be in the range of 2.6-2.8 million tonnes [12] Market Dynamics - Increased demand for aluminum is driven by the rise in electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries, and the recovery in air travel, which has led to higher production needs from aircraft manufacturers [9] - The U.S. administration's decision to increase tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% has positively impacted domestic producers like Alcoa by raising aluminum prices [10] Strategic Initiatives - Alcoa is focused on acquiring new assets to enhance organic growth, exemplified by its acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024, which strengthens its position in the bauxite and alumina markets [14] - The company is also collaborating with stakeholders to expand production capacities, which is expected to support top-line performance [20] Financial Outlook - Alcoa's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 12.72X, in line with the industry average, and lower than peers Olympic Steel and Constellium [15] - Earnings estimates for 2026 have increased by 38.5% to $5.18 per share, while estimates for 2027 have risen by 27.4% to $5.26 per share over the past 60 days, reflecting positive analyst sentiment [19][20]

Financial Performance - The company reported underlying EBITDA of $1.1 billion for H1 FY2026, with a group operating margin of 28.2% [3][6] - Underlying earnings increased to $45 million, and group free cash flow improved to $57 million after a $338 million growth capital investment at the Hermosa project [6] - The balance sheet showed a net debt of $25 million, and the company declared a fully franked dividend of $175 million while increasing its capital management program by $100 million [6][7] Safety and Operational Improvements - The company is experiencing improvements in key safety measures due to its global safety improvement program, with reductions in significant hazard frequency and lag indicators [2] - Production and unit cost guidance for FY2026 remains unchanged for the company's operated assets [3] Project Developments - Construction at the Hermosa/Taylor project is progressing, with vent and main shafts approximately 56% and 41% complete, respectively, and dewatering ahead of schedule [5][10] - The company sees potential copper upside at the Peak deposit, estimating an additional capex of $50 million to $60 million for a potential copper circuit that could extend the Taylor project by roughly 10 years [5][12] Mozal Aluminium and Other Operations - Mozal Aluminium is set to enter care and maintenance in March due to high power costs, with ongoing care costs expected to be around $5 million per year [4][18] - The company reported disappointing performance in Brazil Aluminium, with production guidance of 135,000 tonnes for FY2026 compared to full capacity of 179,000 tonnes [20] Exploration and Growth Opportunities - At Sierra Gorda, an exploration target at Catabela Northeast has been defined, ranging from 1.1 billion to 2.9 billion tonnes, with further exploration planned for 2026 [14] - The feasibility study for a fourth grinding line at Sierra Gorda is nearing completion, which could increase concentrate capacity by about 20% [15]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto and Chalco have entered into a joint venture to acquire Votorantim's controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), enhancing their low-carbon aluminium footprint in Brazil through a cash transaction valued at approximately $902.6 million [1]. Transaction Details - The joint venture will be owned 33% by Rio Tinto and 67% by Chalco, acquiring Votorantim's 68.596% shareholding in CBA at R$10.50 per share, representing a 21.2% premium over the weighted average trading price of R$8.67 for the 20 trading days prior to the agreement [1]. - Following the transaction, the joint venture will launch a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares in CBA not held by Votorantim, as required by Brazilian law [1]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition aligns with Rio Tinto's strategy to expand its low-carbon, renewable-powered aluminium operations in rapidly growing markets, leveraging both companies' expertise across the aluminium value chain [1]. - CBA operates as a vertically integrated low-carbon aluminium business in Brazil, supported by a 1.6 GW portfolio of renewable power generation assets, including hydropower and wind power [1]. Operational Highlights - CBA has three bauxite mines with a production capacity of approximately 2 million tonnes per annum, and an aluminium complex in São Paulo with a capacity of 0.8 million tonnes for alumina and 0.4 million tonnes for aluminium smelting [1]. - The partnership aims to enhance operational excellence and innovation, creating value for shareholders, employees, customers, and local communities [1].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation is a leading player in the aluminum industry, with a strong market position and positive financial performance indicators, despite facing slight revenue declines [1][6]. Financial Performance - Alcoa reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.45 billion, a decrease of 1.1% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.24 billion, resulting in a positive surprise of 6.34% [3][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 were $1.26, up from $1.04 the previous year, and significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.95, delivering a surprise of 32.63% [4][6]. - Alcoa's fourth-quarter profit increased to $226 million, compared to $202 million in the same period the previous year, driven by gains in alumina and aluminum sales [5][6]. Market Position and Ratings - B. Riley maintained a "Buy" rating for Alcoa and raised its price target from $44 to $78, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2][6]. - The current stock price of Alcoa is $63.14, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.14%, with a market capitalization of approximately $16.35 billion [5].

Core Insights - Alcoa reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025, with increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA driven by higher aluminum prices and production records across multiple facilities [4][7]. Production and Operational Performance - The company achieved annual production records at five smelters and one refinery, with 16 consecutive years of increased production at Deschambault in Canada and eight years at Mosjøen in Norway [2]. - The San Ciprián smelter restart is progressing well, reaching about 65% capacity by the end of 2025, with full restart expected in the first half of 2026 [1][6]. Financial Results - Alcoa's Q4 revenue was $3.4 billion, a 15% sequential increase, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $546 million, up $276 million sequentially [7]. - The company recorded a net income of $226 million, with adjusted net income of $335 million or $1.26 per share [8]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Alcoa ended December with $1.6 billion in cash and $1.5 billion of adjusted net debt, at the high end of its target range [5][12]. - Free cash flow for the full year 2025 was $594 million, with $294 million generated in the fourth quarter [10]. 2026 Guidance - For 2026, Alcoa expects alumina production of 9.7 to 9.9 million tons and aluminum production of 2.4 to 2.6 million tons, with anticipated headwinds in Q1 [13][16]. - Capital expenditures are projected at $750 million for 2026, with a focus on sustaining capital and environmental spending [15]. Market Commentary - Alumina pricing remains range-bound, while aluminum LME prices increased by 8% sequentially, reaching $3,200 per metric ton [19]. - The company anticipates a net benefit from the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, estimating a positive impact of approximately $10 per metric ton [20]. Strategic Initiatives - Alcoa is negotiating to monetize a remediation site in the U.S., with an agreement expected in the first half of 2026 [21]. - The company is also focused on mine approvals in Western Australia, expecting an EPA recommendation by mid-2026 [22].

Group 1: Materialise NV (MTLS) - Materialise NV specializes in software, medical applications, and manufacturing services related to 3D printing, holding a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Materialise's current year earnings has increased by 33.3% over the last 60 days [1] - Materialise's shares have gained 2% over the last three months, outperforming the S&P 500's advance of 0.8%, and it has a Momentum Score of A [2] Group 2: Calix, Inc. (CALX) - Calix, Inc. provides cloud and software platforms and also holds a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calix's current year earnings has increased by 15.4% over the last 60 days [2] - Calix's shares have gained 12.7% over the last six months, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's advance of 12.4%, and it has a Momentum Score of B [2] Group 3: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, maintaining a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's current year earnings has increased by 6.1% over the last 60 days [3] - Alcoa's shares have gained 44.3% over the last three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's advance of 0.8%, and it has a Momentum Score of B [3]

Legal Dispute - A Russian court has ruled in favor of Rusal in a lawsuit against Rio Tinto, amounting to 104.75 billion roubles ($1.32 billion) [1] - The lawsuit pertains to a joint alumina refinery in Queensland, Australia, which Rio Tinto took sole control of following sanctions imposed on Russia [1][3] Background of the Lawsuit - Rusal filed the lawsuit after losing a case in Australia in 2024 regarding its 20% stake in the Queensland Alumina Ltd (QAL) plant [3] - The Australian government imposed sweeping sanctions in response to Russia's military actions in Ukraine, including a ban on aluminium raw material exports to Russia [3] Control of the Refinery - Following the sanctions, Rio Tinto took full control of QAL, owning 80% of the refinery, which limited Rusal's access to its output [4] - Rio Tinto has no assets in Russia, but the lawsuit includes its subsidiaries that own 66% of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold deposit in Mongolia [4] Rusal's Supply Strategy - Due to the alumina export ban and operational suspensions in Ukraine, Rusal sought additional supplies from China and other countries to support its Siberian aluminium smelters [5] - Rusal plans to acquire up to a 50% stake in an alumina plant in India by 2025 and is also planning to build a new 4.8-million-ton alumina plant in Russia's Leningrad region by 2028 [5] Recent Acquisitions - In 2023, Rusal acquired a 30% stake in a Chinese alumina refinery to ensure feedstock for its operations in Russia, Ireland, Jamaica, and Guinea [6]

Group 1: Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Commercial Metals Company is a steel and metal products provider with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 12.5% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.35, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.00, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 5.8% over the last 60 days [2] - Alcoa has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.16, slightly below the industry average of 11.60, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: James River Group Holdings, Ltd. (JRVR) - James River Group Holdings is a specialty insurance company with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.5% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.46, which is lower than the industry average of 8.30, and possesses a Value Score of B [3]