MOSCOW, Dec 15 (Reuters) - A Russian court has ruled in favour of Rusal in the aluminium giant's 104.75-billion-rouble ($1.32 billion) lawsuit against global mining ​and metals company Rio Tinto, according to court documents. The ruling intensifies a ‌legal battle over a joint alumina refinery in Queensland, Australia, that Rio took sole control of ‌after Australia imposed sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. The lawsuit was heard in closed session, and its details have not been disclosed. Rusal ...

Group 1: Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Commercial Metals Company is a steel and metal products provider with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 12.5% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.35, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.00, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 5.8% over the last 60 days [2] - Alcoa has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.16, slightly below the industry average of 11.60, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: James River Group Holdings, Ltd. (JRVR) - James River Group Holdings is a specialty insurance company with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 10.5% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.46, which is lower than the industry average of 8.30, and possesses a Value Score of B [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto will reduce production at the Yarwun Alumina Refinery by 40% starting October 2026 to extend its operational life until 2035 and explore further modernization options [1][2][3] Production and Capacity - The reduction in production will lead to a decrease of approximately 1.2 million tonnes of alumina annually [5] - The Yarwun tailings facility is expected to reach capacity by 2031 at current production rates, making this curtailment necessary for future exploration [2] Economic and Employment Impact - The decision will affect around 180 roles at the refinery, with plans for redeployment across Rio Tinto sites in Gladstone [4] - The company emphasizes its commitment to alumina and aluminium operations in Gladstone, aiming to manage the transition effectively [4] Operational Continuity - Despite the production cut, there will be no impact on customer requirements or other operations, as bauxite mines and aluminium smelters will continue to operate at full capacity [5] - Yarwun currently employs about 725 people and produces around 3 million tonnes of alumina per year, which is used as feedstock for Rio Tinto's aluminium smelters and international customers [6] Environmental Initiatives - Rio Tinto is prioritizing innovative tailings solutions and decarbonisation technologies, including the Hydrogen Calcination Project supported by Australian Renewable Energy Agency funding [6]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Aluminium Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Aluminium Sector** and its supply-demand dynamics, highlighting the constrained supply and rising prices due to tight fundamentals [2][4][9]. Key Points Supply Constraints - China's aluminium industry capacity is capped at **45.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa)**, currently operating at over **98% utilization** [3][9]. - Planned capacity additions for 2026 include **200,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa)** from Tianshan and **350 ktpa** from Zhalv, with no new capacity expected for 2027 [3][9]. - Ex-China, new capacity is anticipated mainly from Indonesia, contributing **400 kt** and **200 kt** YoY in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][9]. Demand Growth - UBS forecasts global primary aluminium demand growth of **4%** for both 2026 and 2027, while supply growth is expected to be only **1-2%**, potentially leading to market deficits [4][9]. Price Forecasts - Aluminium price forecasts for China have been raised by **5%** for 2026 and **7%** for 2027, now projected at **Rmb22,000/t** and **Rmb23,000/t**, respectively [2][16]. - The global aluminium price is also expected to rise, with UBS increasing its LME aluminium price forecasts by approximately **15%** [2][16]. Earnings Revisions - Net profit estimates for major companies in the sector have been revised upwards: - **Hongqiao**: +11% for 2026E, +16% for 2027E - **Chalco**: +14% for 2026E, +22% for 2027E - **Tianshan**: +12% for 2026E, +26% for 2027E [5][17][18][19]. Price Target Adjustments - Price targets (PT) for key companies have been adjusted significantly: - **Hongqiao**: Raised from **HK$28.0** to **HK$38.60** (implying a **10x** 2026E PE) [5][17]. - **Chalco-H**: Increased from **HK$8.60** to **HK$13.10** [5][18]. - **Chalco-A**: Upgraded from **HK$8.30** to **HK$12.40** [5][18]. - **Tianshan**: Increased from **Rmb12.60** to **Rmb17.00** [5][19]. Investment Ratings - The report reiterates **Buy** ratings on **Hongqiao**, **Tianshan**, and **Chalco-H**, while upgrading **Chalco-A** to **Buy** from Neutral [5][18][19]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of corporate governance improvements and stable earnings delivery for Chalco, which supports the upgraded ratings [18]. - The aluminium market is expected to remain tight, with potential drawdowns in visible inventory supporting price increases [4][9]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's aluminium sector remains positive, driven by constrained supply, rising demand, and improved earnings forecasts for key players, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Core Insights - Jamalco, a joint venture of Century Aluminum, has resumed production after Hurricane Melissa, with no injuries or material damage reported [1][2] - The company is working with the Government of Jamaica to support affected communities [2] - Century Aluminum does not anticipate a material impact on its financial results from the hurricane [2] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is an integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, and is the largest primary aluminum producer in the United States [3] - The company operates production facilities in Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially to $3 billion [11] - Net income attributable to Alcoa increased to $232 million from $164 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share rising to $0.88 [11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $43 million primarily due to increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts [12][13] - Cash flow activities showed a cash balance of $1.5 billion at the end of the quarter, with cash used for operations at $85 million [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 9% due to lower volumes and bauxite prices [11] - In the aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased 4% driven by higher average realized prices, despite lower shipments [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment decreased by $72 million, while the aluminum segment saw an increase of $210 million due to higher metal prices [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices have declined significantly, with recent prices around $315 per metric ton due to ample supply and refinery expansions [18] - LME aluminum prices rose approximately 7% sequentially, reaching $2,775 per metric ton, influenced by a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent supply tightness [20] - The Midwest premium increased, reaching import parity, reflecting declining inventories and reduced aluminum imports [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing profitability through higher shipments, improved operations, and strategic investments such as the Massena energy contract [10] - A new long-term energy contract for Massena operations was announced, along with a $60 million investment in anode bake furnace [8] - The company is exploring M&A opportunities across its product line, with no specific focus area currently identified [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of safety following a tragic incident at the Alumar smelter, reinforcing safety protocols [5] - The outlook for the fourth quarter includes expectations for improved performance in the alumina segment and potential unfavorable impacts in the aluminum segment due to restart inefficiencies [16] - Management noted that while demand remains steady in packaging and electrical sectors, the automotive sector is weak due to tariff uncertainties [21] Other Important Information - The company is progressing with the development of a gallium plant in Australia, supported by funding from the U.S. and Australian governments [7] - The Kwinana Refinery's permanent closure resulted in significant restructuring charges, but the company anticipates recovering closure costs through land sales [12][98] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation and M&A opportunities - Management indicated a priority to pay down debt while evaluating returns to shareholders and potential growth options [29][30] Question: U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership - The partnership was initiated with Japanese entities seeking gallium offtake, providing a supply chain outside of China [34] Question: Canadian-U.S. negotiations regarding aluminum tariffs - Management is providing information to both governments to aid in decision-making regarding trade flows [41] Question: Interest in rolling business - Management confirmed no interest in re-entering the rolling business [57] Question: Gallium project economics and impact on mining permits - The gallium project will not impact ongoing mining permit processes, and the economics are still under negotiation [52] Question: Demand profile and market conditions - Management noted that demand remains stable in certain sectors, with automotive demand being weak, but not indicative of demand destruction [105]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially to $3 billion, with the Alumina segment seeing a 9% decrease in third-party revenue due to lower volumes and bauxite prices [16] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $232 million, up from $164 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $0.88 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $43 million primarily due to increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [18][19] - Year-to-date return on equity was 14.5%, and cash flow activities included a tax refund of $69 million from the Australian Tax Office [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 9% due to lower volumes and prices, while the Aluminum segment saw a 4% increase in revenue driven by higher average realized prices [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment decreased by $72 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $210 million due to higher metal prices and lower alumina costs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices have declined significantly, with recent prices around $315 per metric ton due to ample spot availability and refinery expansions in Indonesia and China [26] - LME prices rose approximately 7% sequentially, recently reaching $2,775 per metric ton, reflecting a combination of factors including a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent supply tightness [29] - The Midwest premium increased during the third quarter, reaching import parity, which reflects declining inventories and reduced aluminum imports [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing profitability through higher shipments, improved operations, and key investments such as the Messina Energy contract and anode bake furnace [14] - A new long-term energy contract for Messina operations was announced, along with a $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace to enhance operational efficiency [12] - The company is evaluating M&A opportunities across the product line but does not have a specific focus at this time [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of safety following a workplace fatality and reiterated their commitment to providing a safe working environment [5][6] - The outlook for the Alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million in 2025, while the Aluminum segment anticipates unfavorable impacts of about $20 million due to restart inefficiencies [23][24] - Management noted that demand remains steady across Europe and North America, with healthy growth in packaging and electrical sectors, while the automotive sector is weak [31][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a partnership with the U.S. and Australian governments to develop a gallium plant at the Wagerup alumina refinery, which is expected to provide strategic benefits [10][11] - The Kwinana refinery's permanent closure resulted in significant asset retirement obligations, impacting the financial results [8][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation and M&A opportunities - Management indicated that they are close to their net debt target and will prioritize debt repayment while evaluating returns to shareholders and growth options [40][41] Question: U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership - The partnership was initiated with Japanese entities and aims to establish a gallium supply chain outside of China, with first production expected by 2026 [45][48] Question: Canadian negotiations and domestic capacity expansion - Management is providing information to both U.S. and Canadian governments regarding trade flows and noted that competitive energy prices for long-term contracts in the U.S. are still lacking [54][55] Question: Gallium project economics and mining permitting - The gallium project is not a large investment and will be financed by several governments, with no impact on the ongoing mining permitting process [66][67] Question: Interest in idled assets and data centers - Management confirmed ongoing interest in data centers and AI centers, with significant efforts to market sites with existing electrical infrastructure [120] Question: Demand profile and market conditions - Management does not see significant demand destruction but noted weakness in the automotive sector, attributing it to potential substitution by electric vehicles from China [122]

Core Points - Norðurál Grundartangi ehf, a subsidiary of Century Aluminum Company, has temporarily halted production on one of its potlines due to an electrical equipment failure at its aluminum smelter in Iceland [1] - The production at the smelter has been reduced by approximately two-thirds, while the other potline remains fully operational [2] - Century Aluminum expects that losses from this incident will be covered by its property and business interruption insurance policies [3] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is an integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, and is the largest primary aluminum producer in the United States [4]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is expected to report a 4.1% increase in revenues for Q3 2025, with estimates at $3.02 billion compared to the previous year [1][11] - The company is projected to experience a decline in earnings per share, with a consensus estimate of an adjusted loss of seven cents, reflecting a 112.3% increase from last year's quarterly level [2][11] Revenue and Sales Performance - The Aluminum segment is anticipated to benefit from increased demand for products such as slab, billet, and rod in Europe and North America, with third-party sales estimated at $2.11 billion, indicating a 17% increase from the prior year [3][4] - The Alumina segment, however, is expected to show weakness, with third-party sales projected at $813 million, representing an 18.9% decrease from the previous year [7][11] Strategic Developments - Alcoa's partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with IGNIS EQT and the acquisition of Alumina Limited, are expected to enhance revenue streams [5] - Efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to support performance in the upcoming quarter [6] Market Conditions - The company faces challenges in the Alumina segment due to a weak bauxite market influenced by safety and environmental inspections [7] - Global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds, particularly a stronger U.S. dollar, may negatively impact Alcoa's overseas operations [8]

Core Points - Century Aluminum Company has extended its power agreement with Santee Cooper to ensure a stable power supply for its Mt. Holly smelter until 2031, facilitating the restart of idle capacity [1][2] - The company plans to invest $50 million to restart idle capacity, which will increase production by 50,000 metric tons and boost overall U.S. aluminum output by 10 percent [3] - The expansion is expected to create over 100 new jobs and allow the plant to operate at full capacity by early summer 2026, a level not seen since 2015 [3] Company Plans and Economic Impact - The Mt. Holly smelter, when fully operational, is projected to contribute approximately $900 million annually to South Carolina's economy, with new jobs offering an average wage of $125,000 [5] - The restart initiative is supported by recent increases in Section 232 tariffs, reflecting the administration's backing for the domestic aluminum industry [4] - Century Aluminum attributes its success to collaboration with Santee Cooper, with final restart details pending confirmation of economic incentives from Berkeley County and the state of South Carolina [6][8]