证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学制药 博瑞医药（688166） 在研管线进展点评：BGM0504 片 IND 申请 获受理，稀缺双靶点口服多肽即将进入临床 买入（上调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,180 | 1,283 | 1,295 | 1,490 | 1,762 | | 同比（%） | 15.94 | 8.74 | 0.95 | 15.11 | 18.21 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 202.47 | 189.17 | 261.90 | 302.94 | 433.39 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (6.57) | 38.45 | 15.67 | 43.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 144.41 | 154.57 | 111.64 | 96.52 | 67.4 ...

Key Takeaways Novo Nordisk stock is down 19.9% YTD due to weak obesity study data and regulatory headwinds. NVO faces stiff competition from Lilly's blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound and Mounjaro. Wegovy sales rose 83% in Q1 2025 and NVO is expanding semaglutide indications and manufacturing capacity.Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares have plunged 19.9% year to date, following a string of unfavorable outcomes, both pipeline and regulatory, that have led investors to bet against the company. The company r ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 从目前来看，2024年全球处方药销售额排名前七的公司分别为：强生（Johnson & Johnson，557亿美元）、艾伯维（AbbVie，545亿美 元）、默沙东（Merck，543亿美元）、罗氏（Roche，525亿美元）、辉瑞（Pfizer，520亿美元）、阿斯利康（AstraZeneca，509亿美 元）以及诺华（Novartis，502亿美元）。Evaluate预计，礼来和诺和诺德将在2030年前迅速超越上述公司。 根据Evaluate Pharma的数据，受益于糖尿病和肥胖治疗药物销售的持续增长，礼来（Eli Lilly）有望在2030年成为全球处方药销售额最 高的生物制药公司，预计届时销售收入将达到1130亿美元，远超排名第二的诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk），后者预计为840亿美元。 在其发布的《2025年全球前瞻》报告中，Evaluate指出，糖尿病与肥胖药物将继续主导市场，预计2024年至2030年间年均增长率将达到 20%。其中，礼来将从这一增长中获益更多，其2024年处方药销售额为410亿美元，而诺和诺德则为420亿美元，预计至2030年二者均 ...

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) is currently undervalued, presenting a potential rebound opportunity despite recent stock price declines of over 52% from historical highs, with expectations of returning above $120 within 1-2 years for growth-oriented investors [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, sales reached $11.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.85%, aligning with market expectations [3] - Core product Ozempic shows stable growth in diabetes care, while Wegovy has seen explosive expansion, with U.S. sales up 40% and international sales up 137% [3] - Only 46 million patients globally are currently receiving treatment, indicating significant room for growth [3] - Non-GAAP EPS grew by 20.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by nearly 7% [3] - Management has lowered the full-year sales growth guidance to 13%-21%, but this has been overly emphasized by the market, overlooking positive variables from regulatory improvements and strategic adjustments [3] Market Concerns - Current market worries focus on the sustainability of the U.S. compounded GLP-1 drug expansion, particularly after Wegovy was previously listed on the FDA drug shortage list [5] - Novo Nordisk has terminated its partnership with Hims&Hers due to regulatory violations, aiming to protect patient safety and market share [5] - The launch of the NovoCare pharmacy platform aims to compete directly with compounded alternatives, with Wegovy being the only GLP-1 obesity drug covered by CVS Health starting July 1, 2025 [5] R&D Pipeline - The FDA has accepted the application for oral semaglutide for obesity treatment, which could attract patients averse to injections [7] - CagriSema has shown a 22.7% weight loss effect in the REDEFINE-1 trial, with low discontinuation rates due to gastrointestinal side effects, positioning it as an effective option for patients needing significant weight loss [7] Valuation and Market Sentiment - The current forward P/E ratio for the company is 14.44, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.91, indicating undervaluation compared to the healthcare products industry average of 3.23 [8] - If the PEG ratio returns to 0.91, there is potential for nearly 90% upside in stock price within 1-2 years [8] - Technical analysis suggests that the stock may challenge previous highs if catalysts materialize [8] Strategic Execution - The current stock price does not reflect the company's true value, and if strategic execution is successful, Novo Nordisk could return to historical highs [11]

医药｜2025ADA 大会：减重药物新进展 20250703 摘要 诺和诺德的 CagriSema，结合 GLP-1 和 Amylin 受体激动剂，在 75 周 观察期内与司美格鲁肽联合治疗使体重下降 22.7%，净效达 20.4%， 但恶心不良反应高于单独使用司美格鲁肽。 AMG133 作为 GLP-1 受体激动剂和 GIP 受体阻滞剂，在肥胖伴糖尿病 患者的二期临床试验中，高剂量组（420 毫克）每月一次或每两个月一 次给药，体重下降接近 20%，扣除 IVG 效应后约为 16%。 Bimagrumab 与司美格鲁肽联合使用，可减少司美格鲁肽引起的肌肉 减少，使体重下降主要来自于脂肪组织，但高剂量联合治疗组腹泻和肌 肉痉挛发生率有所增加。 礼来公司的小分子 GLP-1 受体激动剂在 Achieve One 三期临床试验中， 36 毫克剂量组体重下降接近 8%，但两个高剂量组未显示出明显的剂量 效应关系，不良反应主要是胃肠道问题。 先为达的偏向型 GLP-1 受体激动剂在超重和肥胖人群的三期临床试验中， 2.4 毫克组 48 周时体重大幅下降 15.4%，减重效果高于司美格鲁肽 2.4 毫克，接近替西帕肽。 ...

Core Insights - The healthcare sector is highlighted as having significant growth opportunities, particularly in the weight loss drug market and gene editing technologies [2][4]. Group 1: Weight Loss Drug Market - Eli Lilly is positioned to potentially lead the GLP-1 agonist market, currently holding approximately 35% market share, while Novo Nordisk leads with 65% [4]. - The GLP-1 market is projected to grow to a $150 billion opportunity over the next decade, representing a tenfold increase from last year's sales [4]. - Eli Lilly is developing two promising drugs: Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 pill, and Retatrutide, which targets multiple hormones and is in phase 3 studies [5][6]. - Analysts anticipate Eli Lilly will achieve 32% annualized earnings growth over the long term, despite a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 65 [7][8]. Group 2: Gene Editing Technology - CRISPR Therapeutics is advancing its commercialization efforts for Casgevy, a therapy for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia, which is the first CRISPR-based treatment to receive FDA approval [10]. - The company has five additional therapies in clinical trials, indicating potential for significant growth if successful [11]. - Analysts project CRISPR Therapeutics will achieve $173 million in revenue next year, with an enterprise value of $2.2 billion, suggesting a reasonable price for the stock given its potential [12].

Core Viewpoint - The abrupt termination of the partnership between Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers highlights the survival crisis faced by global weight loss drug giants amid the challenges posed by generic drugs and setbacks in innovative drug development [1][8]. Group 1: Partnership Breakdown - The collaboration between Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers began on April 29, 2025, aiming to provide the authentic weight loss drug Wegovy through Hims & Hers' platform [2]. - The initial expectation was for Hims & Hers to guide patients from unregulated compounded drugs to the legitimate product, while Novo Nordisk sought to expand its digital channels [2][3]. - The partnership unraveled due to Hims & Hers' continued sale of compounded semaglutide, which violated compliance standards set by Novo Nordisk [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the partnership's collapse, Hims & Hers' stock plummeted nearly 30%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $5 billion, while Novo Nordisk's stock fell over 9%, erasing $9 billion in market capitalization [1]. - The incident reflects a broader crisis in the GLP-1 weight loss drug market, with Novo Nordisk facing intense competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, which has outperformed semaglutide in weight loss efficacy [4][8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance Issues - Novo Nordisk accused Hims & Hers of large-scale compounding and deceptive marketing practices that jeopardized patient safety, particularly concerning the use of "illegal foreign active pharmaceutical ingredients" [1][4]. - The FDA's resolution of the Wegovy shortage has significantly reduced the legal space for compounded drugs, leading to a survival crisis for compounding companies [5][8]. Group 4: Novo Nordisk's Strategic Response - In response to its challenges, Novo Nordisk is investing heavily in the development of new generation drugs, including a $2.2 billion prepayment to Septerna for oral weight loss drug development [7]. - The company is also building a digital healthcare ecosystem, having formed strategic partnerships with companies like Ping An Health to create a comprehensive obesity management system [7][8]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics - The global weight loss drug market is projected to exceed $50 billion in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 80% of this market, indicating a highly lucrative yet competitive landscape [8]. - The rapid changes in the market, driven by both innovative competitors and generic drug proliferation, are forcing traditional pharmaceutical giants like Novo Nordisk to rethink their strategies in the face of compliance and channel challenges [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of multiple promising weight loss drugs showcased at the 2025 ADA conference, focusing on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which exhibit excellent clinical data and are expected to become core targets for future weight loss drug development [6][15] - The report emphasizes the potential of oral and ultra-long-acting drugs in the weight loss and glycemic control market, which are anticipated to open new incremental market opportunities [8][31] - The report recommends several pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies as investment targets, including Heng Rui Medicine, East China Medicine, and others across various segments such as CXO, research services, traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical devices, and retail pharmacies [9] Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Drug Developments - The 2025 ADA conference showcased several potential pipeline drugs for weight loss, with a focus on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which are expected to lead future developments in this area [15] - AMYR-targeted drugs, such as eloralintide from Eli Lilly, demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to GLP-1 drugs, indicating a promising future for this class of drugs [16][18] - ActRII-targeted drugs, particularly Bimagrumab, showed significant weight loss results, with 100% of weight loss coming from fat, suggesting a new standard for high-quality weight loss therapies [28][29] 2. Oral and Ultra-Long-Acting Drugs - The report identifies oral GLP-1RA drugs as a new trend in the weight loss and glycemic control market, with several companies presenting promising clinical data at the 2025 ADA conference [31][32] - The ultra-long-acting drug Maridebart cafraglutide demonstrated effective weight loss results with extended dosing intervals, enhancing patient compliance and treatment simplicity [33][34] 3. Recommended Investment Targets - The report lists various companies across different segments as recommended investment targets, including pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms, CXO companies, research service providers, traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers, raw material suppliers, medical device companies, and retail pharmacies [9]

Core Insights - The weight management medicines market is experiencing significant growth, with Eli Lilly positioned to dominate through the end of the decade due to its strong pipeline and clinical successes [1][9] - Eli Lilly's primary competitor in this space is Novo Nordisk, with both companies having deep pipelines and successful products [2][4] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown superior efficacy compared to Novo Nordisk's semaglutide in clinical trials [5] - Novo Nordisk's next-generation medicine, CagriSema, achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, falling short of its 25% target, which may hinder its commercial success [6][5] - Eli Lilly has additional promising candidates, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which could further enhance its competitive edge [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Eli Lilly is partnering with Camurus to utilize FluidCrystal technology for long-acting delivery of injectable therapies, addressing the issue of weight regain after discontinuation of medications [8] Group 3: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a 45% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.7 billion and a 29% increase in net income to $3 billion in the first quarter [11] - Despite a higher forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.3 compared to the healthcare industry's average of 15.9, Eli Lilly's growth justifies the premium [11] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Eli Lilly is not solely focused on diabetes or weight loss, as it has also developed breakthrough medicines in other therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer's disease [10] - The company's strong financial results and promising pipeline make its stock an attractive long-term investment [12]

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 司美格鲁肽（Semaglutide）是由诺和诺德公司开发的一种胰高血糖素样肽-1（GLP-1）受体激动剂，已被批准用于治疗2型糖尿病及肥 胖症。其通过抑制食欲、降低热量摄入来实现减重效果，自上市以来在减肥市场引发强烈反响。今年第一季度，其全球销售额已超过78 亿美元，彻底改变了减肥药物市场格局。 不过，美国制药巨头礼来公司开发的GLP-1/GIP双受体激动剂替尔泊肽（Tirzepatide），正在迅速迎头赶上。根据2024年5月发表于 《新英格兰医学杂志》（NEJM）的一项头对头比较研究（SURMOUNT-5试验），替尔泊肽在减轻体重和缩小腰围方面的效果明显优 于司美格鲁肽。在为期72周的治疗中，接受替尔泊肽的患者平均减重20.2%（约22.8公斤），其中31.6%的人减重幅度达到或超过 25%。与此同时，替尔泊肽今年一季度的销售额已突破61亿美元，逼近司美格鲁肽。 2025年6月22日，《新英格兰医学杂志》同步刊登了两项关键3a期临床试验结果，重点评估卡格列肽（Cagrilintide）与司美格鲁肽的复 方制剂（统称CagriSema）在不同人群中的减重效果。一项试验面向 ...