美国国债今年表现亮眼，随着联邦政府关门风险临近，投资者加速买入这一无风险资产。 智通财经APP获悉，受益于资金流入，iShares 20年以上美债ETF(TLT.US)本季度总回报率有望上涨 2.72%，年初至今累计涨幅达5.7%，创下自2020年以来的最佳表现。当年，新冠疫情引发避险潮，TLT 全年大涨18%。与此同时，长期美债收益率持续下行：10年期美债收益率已连续三个季度回落，年内累 计下跌45.2个基点至约4.1%，而年初为4.6%；30年期收益率年内也下降8.5个基点。若趋势持续，今年 或将录得自2020年以来最大年度跌幅。 推动美债走强的因素包括，特朗普政府的关税虽推高部分商品价格，但未根本改变通胀走势；财政部长 贝森特维持国债供给稳定，减轻市场供需压力；美联储则在近期开始降息，以支持就业市场。在经济增 长前景承压、衰退担忧未消的背景下，债券的避险吸引力进一步放大。 最新的不确定性来自于联邦政府或将在周三陷入停摆。尽管仍可能在最后时刻达成拨款协议，围绕医疗 保健支出的问题让谈判陷入僵局。巴克莱策略师指出，投资者将从经济前景和关键数据延迟的角度看待 此次关门，这种不确定性往往会令美债更具吸引力。 历 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury reported that foreign holdings of U.S. debt increased by $233.1 billion in March, totaling $9.0495 trillion, with Japan remaining the largest foreign holder [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increasing financing burdens from the federal budget deficit and rising costs of extending existing debt under high interest rates [1][3] - The downgrade by Moody's aligns with previous actions by other major rating agencies, reflecting concerns over the growing deficit and political gridlock [3] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.48% following the downgrade, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell approximately 1% in after-hours trading [3] - Moody's indicated that the decision to downgrade was influenced by the rising ratio of government debt and interest payments compared to similarly rated sovereign nations [6] - The total federal debt reached $36.21 trillion as of May 15, 2023, with an increase of $0.852 billion since the beginning of the month [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary urged Congress to raise or suspend the debt ceiling by mid-July to avoid potential default, which could have catastrophic economic consequences [7] - Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 times to raise, temporarily extend, or modify the debt ceiling, with significant actions occurring under both Republican and Democratic administrations [7][8] - The fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year has reached $1.05 trillion, a 13% increase from the previous year, with expectations that the federal deficit will expand to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]