当前背景下，通胀水平仍高于2%的长期目标，这使市场倾向于判断短期内政策节奏将以"观望"为主。利率 路径的不确定性，往往会影响资金在主要货币之间的配置方向。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比近日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果通胀回落至2%目标，今年存在多次下调利率的 可能。他同时强调，在看到更加明确的数据证据前，不宜过度提前计入宽松预期。这一表态传递出的核心 信息是，未来政策空间仍然取决于通胀走势，而非单一时间表。市场在解读相关言论时，通常会结合就 业、物价和经济增长数据综合评估，从而形成对美元阶段性强弱的判断。 纽元表现相对平稳。市场对新西兰联储（RBNZ）短期是否加息仍有分歧，汇价波动未出现明显放大。此 前，新西兰联储行长安娜·布雷曼在货币政策声明中指出，经济有望在不触发明显通胀压力的情况下持续增 长。这一表态被视为政策态度趋于温和，鹰派预期有所降温。 从结构看，纽元兑美元走势受美元利率预期及新西兰经济表现共同影响。外部利率路径逐步清晰时，资金 在不同资产之间重新配置。美元阶段性走强背景下，只要政策节奏仍存分歧，非美货币仍可能出现技术性 修复。 纽元上涨0.16%至接近0.5990，美元指数在97.75附近运行，反映市场 ...

UNFX2月12日讯（分析师 Simon）美国1月非农就业报告表现强于市场预期，投资者随即下调对美联储 3月启动降息的判断。不过，美元虽在数据公布后获得提振，但上涨动能并未持续。在经济基本面偏强 与政治层面持续呼吁宽松的背景下，黄金回调幅度有限，整体维持高位整理。当前市场的焦点在于：就 业韧性与宽松预期之间的拉锯。 数据显示，美国1月新增就业13万人，高于市场预计的7万人，也超过上月修正后的4.8万人；失业率由 4.4%降至4.3%；平均时薪同比增速维持在3.7%。数据公布后，利率期货迅速重新定价。CME FedWatch 数据显示，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率升至约95%，此前约为80%。德国商业银行指出，强劲的就 业表现一度推升美元，欧元兑美元跌至1.19下方，体现出"就业改善—降息预期回落—美元走强"的传导 机制仍然有效。但该行同时提醒，单月数据难以确认趋势方向，且非农数据历来存在修订风险，若后续 数据缺乏持续性，政策预期仍可能再度调整。 随着短期降息概率下降，现货黄金（XAU/USD）出现技术性回落，但整体跌幅温和，目前仍处于5050 美元上方，与此前两周低点保持距离。 从驱动因素来看： 克利夫兰联储 ...

关于沃什任内的降息路径判断，中信证券分析师认为沃什不会按特朗普诉求大幅降息，仍以经济基本面 为主要决策依据。沃什关注通胀风险但并非绝对鹰派，中信证券分析师认为下半年基准情形降息1–2 次，核心取决于通胀走势：若油价及关税等因素推动通胀与通胀预期出现反弹，则降息空间将受到限 制，下半年或仅降息一次25bps；若通胀平稳回落，则下半年或降息两次25bps。 实习编辑:金怡杉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 【大河财立方消息】2月12日，中信证券分析师李翀、崔嵘和韦昕澄发表研报认为，1月非农发布后，市 场对"年度基准大修"的担忧消除，降息预期下调。CME FedWatch显示3月美联储维持利率不变的概率由 78.4%上升至94.1%；4月维持利率不变的概率由57.3%上升至76.6%。 ...

美国联邦储备委员会在1月货币政策会议上决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，符合市场普遍预期。会议发布的利率点阵图显示，联邦公开市场委员会成 员对2026年利率路径的判断存在明显分歧：7位官员认为年内不应降息，8位支持至少降息两次，中值预测显示2026年或仅降息一次。 这一政策指引与期货市场预期存在差异。根据利率互换合约定价，交易员仍押注2026年将出现两次降息。这种分歧反映出市场对美国经济前景及通胀走势的 判断尚未形成共识。 人事层面，白宫已提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，接替将于5月任期届满的鲍威尔。沃什曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事，其政 策立场被市场解读为相对审慎。这一提名被视为在保持央行独立性与回应白宫政策诉求之间寻求平衡。 经济数据方面，原定于2月6日发布的1月非农就业报告因联邦政府部分停摆而推迟至2月11日公布。市场一致预期新增非农就业人口约7万人，失业率维持在 4.4%附近。值得注意的是，彭博经济研究警告称，受统计方法调整等因素影响，实际数据可能意外疲软至1.5万人左右。 若就业数据显著偏离预期，可能强化市场对美联储政策转向时点的重新评估。当前环境下，劳动力市场状况、核 ...

当地时间2月9日，美股三大指数全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数创历史新高。美股大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨超1%，微软涨超3%。芯 片股多数上涨，超威半导体、博通涨超3%。 大宗商品方面，贵金属市场延续反弹趋势，其中伦敦现货黄金突破5000美元/盎司关口，盘中一度涨超2%，伦敦现货白银涨超7%。布伦特原油期货主力合 约涨超1%。 美股三大股指全线收涨 Wind数据显示，当地时间2月9日，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.04%，创历史新高；纳斯达克指数涨0.9%，标普500指数涨0.47%。 美股大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.02%。个股方面，微软涨超3%，英伟达、META涨超2%，特斯拉涨逾1%；苹果跌超1%。 芯片股多数上涨，费城半导体指数涨1.42%。个股方面，超威半导体、博通等涨超3%，应用材料涨超2%，台积电涨超1%。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.12%。个股方面，万物新生涨超6%，世纪互联、亚朵、阿特斯太阳能、大全新能源涨超5%。 欧洲三大股指全线上涨。截至收盘，法国CAC40指数涨0.6%，英国富时100指数涨0.16%，德国DAX指数涨1.19%。 截至北京 ...

中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2026. 01. 29 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 1 月 FOMC：按兵不动、模糊指引 本次会议波澜不惊。鉴于 12 月美联储已暗示将放缓降息步伐，加之 近期失业率回落、通胀依然高企，一系列数据进一步强化了"按兵不动" 的基调。因此，1 月 FOMC 维持利率不变符合市场一致预期。 会议声明措辞略显鹰派，主要反映近期经济的进展。 新闻发布会 Powell 基调中性偏鸽，对冲鹰派声明。 重要的披露和认证位于此报告的背面。 Important disclosures and certifications a ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, ending a series of rate cuts since September 2025, with a generally optimistic outlook on economic growth and a stabilizing labor market [2][10]. Group 1: Employment and Labor Market - The employment growth remains weak, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, which has previously been on the rise [5][6]. - The labor market is experiencing a structural decline in both supply and demand, with factors such as reduced immigration and a declining labor participation rate contributing to this trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, there are positive indicators such as a rebound in wage growth, suggesting some resilience in the labor market [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation is still considered somewhat elevated, although it has decreased from previous highs, remaining above target levels [5][6]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, excluding the impact of tariffs, is slightly above 2%, indicating a healthy progress in inflation management [6]. - The overall trend suggests that inflation is likely to continue decreasing, driven by factors such as a slowdown in housing inflation [6][10]. Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - The Federal Reserve has upgraded its assessment of economic activity to "expanding at a solid pace," indicating stronger growth than previously expected [7]. - Recent data shows that the U.S. economy is likely to stabilize, with consumer spending and investment showing signs of improvement [7]. - The positive impact of previous interest rate cuts on consumer spending is beginning to manifest, with retail sales rebounding unexpectedly [7][10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for further rate cuts have diminished, with probabilities for the Fed maintaining rates in March and April rising to 86.5% and 74%, respectively [10]. - The current labor market shows signs of stabilization, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts in the near term [10]. - However, the long-term outlook suggests that inflation trends and labor market imbalances may lead to increased pressure for rate cuts later in the year [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that growth stocks in the U.S. still have room for performance, with an expected return of approximately 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks and up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks [1] - The U.S. monetary policy has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% at least until 2027 [1] - Inflation trends indicate that the overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth by 2026, with core personal consumption expenditure inflation continuing to decline, although medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, there is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with an estimated price of €22 per megawatt-hour for European TTF natural gas by 2027 [1] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; emerging market currencies may perform well in a globally moderate risk scenario [1]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅提供其长期寻求的安全保 障取得了进展。 欧洲主要股指今年开局表现亮眼，投资者在美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击后大举买入国防和矿业股。 "市场对全球局势的发展反应冷静。关注重点再次集中于与美联储货币政策相关的通胀走势，"资产管理 公司MPPM交易主管Guillermo Hernandez Sampere表示，"今年的首批数据将指明某个方向。" 责任编辑：丁文武 责任编辑：丁文武 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the debt market in 2026, indicating a continuation of the deleveraging phase with high corporate leverage and government leveraging while household debt pressure eases [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Debt Cycle Outlook**: The debt cycle in 2026 is expected to remain in a deleveraging and debt crisis clearing phase, with corporate leverage remaining high and government leverage increasing [3]. - **Debt Pressure Changes**: Household debt costs, particularly mortgage-related, are expected to decrease, while corporate leverage remains high. Government debt financing costs are manageable due to previous interest rate declines [4]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase, with food prices, particularly from the pig cycle, expected to rise in 2026. However, overall price improvements are not expected to be significant [5]. - **Policy Recommendations**: A dual easing policy of fiscal and monetary measures is recommended, with a projected broad deficit rate of around 10% in 2026. Monetary policy should include slight interest rate cuts to maintain low nominal rates [6]. - **Nominal GDP Growth**: Nominal GDP growth is expected to approach zero, relying more on actual output improvements rather than price increases. This necessitates stabilizing total demand through fiscal and monetary easing [7][8]. - **Liquidity and Monetary Policy**: The liquidity situation in 2025 was positive, with expectations of continued easing in 2026. The focus of monetary policy is shifting towards short-term interest rates and liquidity management [9]. - **Credit Growth Expectations**: Credit growth, particularly in the household sector, is expected to continue declining, with new credit primarily driven by policy-induced investment demand [11][12]. - **Deposit Trends**: The deposit situation is expected to stabilize in 2026, with no significant pressure on liabilities, although growth rates will not match previous highs [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Institutional Behavior**: State-owned banks are expected to continue profit realization, with a shift towards bond investment strategies. Insurance companies are focusing on long-duration bonds, while bank wealth management products are growing [14]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: A recommendation for a term strategy under a steep yield curve is made, with low probabilities of significant long-end yield increases [15][16]. - **Credit Strategy Focus**: Attention should be given to changes in risk premiums in urban investment bonds and the supply changes brought by the rise of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. There are opportunities in medium-term urban investment bonds and infrastructure sectors [17]. - **Macro Environment Conclusion**: The overall macro environment is characterized by dual easing policies, leading to a likely continuation of a steep yield curve, suggesting that term strategies will remain relevant [18].