市场的风向正在发生剧烈转变。德意志银行认为，泡泡玛特的"稀缺性"的消失正在扼杀品牌的溢价能力。 据追风交易台，在德银12月16日的最新研报中，将泡泡玛特的评级下调至"持有"。德银指出，自2025年10月中旬以来，泡泡玛特的产能激进扩张 消除了产品短缺，这虽然在短期内满足了供应，但也引发了致命的"时尚疲劳"。 对于投资者而言，最危险的信号已经出现：除了新开业门店或东京等极少数城市外，绝大多数海外市场的门店排队现象已经消失，客流量显著下 滑。这种流量的放缓将直接冲击该公司的高经营利润率。如果该公司只能通过牺牲IP热度来换取产量的扩充，其估值逻辑将面临严峻考验。所谓 的"超级IP"周期可能正在见顶，Labubu是否会步Hello Kitty的后尘，进入漫长的下行周期？ 走量模式的代价：稀缺性溢价的崩塌 泡泡玛特的商业模式正面临一场豪赌。根据德银报告显示，自2025年10月中旬起，公司将月产能从1000万个激增至5000万个。这一举措虽然彻底 解决了缺货问题，但也极大地降低了产品的稀缺感，导致收藏者的热情显著下降。 这种策略的负面效应已经体现在终端渠道上。对于此前备受追捧的Labubu系列（全球已售出约1.45亿个） ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 204% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] - The growth was supported by increased plush toy production capacity and the success of new IPs in various regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [2][3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to a rich lineup of new products and a diversified IP strategy [4] Revenue Growth - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185-190%, while international revenue is projected to increase by 365-370% in Q3 2025 [1] - Online sales are anticipated to rise by 300-305%, with an estimated online penetration rate of 45-50%, surpassing historical peaks [2] - Offline revenue is expected to grow by 130-135%, with a doubling of average store efficiency compared to previous quarters [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected at 170-175%, while North America and Europe are expected to see increases of 1265-1270% and 735-740%, respectively [3] - The company opened approximately 6 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 10 in North America, and 4 in Europe, maintaining a rapid expansion pace [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is preparing for a strong Q4 with new product launches, including Halloween and Christmas-themed items, which are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on diversifying its business through collaborations with top global IPs and brands, expanding into new product categories such as desserts and accessories [4] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 17%, 9%, and 7% to 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion respectively [4] - The target price has been increased to 410 HKD, reflecting a target PE of 27x for 2026, adjusted from 29x due to changes in market risk preferences [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 410.00, up from a previous target of HKD 396.00 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year for Q3, accelerating from 204% in H1, driven by strong demand for plush toys and successful new IP launches [6][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth into Q4, supported by a rich pipeline of new products and a diversified strategy for IP and regional expansion [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years show substantial growth, with expected revenues of RMB 39,883 million in 2025, representing a 205.90% increase from 2024 [5]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 13,529 million in 2025, reflecting a 297.55% increase from 2024 [5]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing strong sales across various channels, with online sales expected to grow by 300-305% in Q3, indicating a significant increase in online penetration [7]. - The company is expanding its presence in North America and the Asia-Pacific region, with revenue growth rates of 170-175% and 1265-1270% respectively for Q3 [8]. Product and IP Strategy - The successful launch of new plush products, such as Labubu and SP plush series, has broadened the company's market appeal and driven sales growth [7]. - The company is focusing on creating a sustainable ecosystem for its IPs, with plans for collaborations with top global brands and diversification into other business areas like desserts and accessories [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 204%, with adjusted net profit reaching 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363%, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth, with both figures surpassing previous forecasts [1] - The domestic and American markets showed impressive profit margins, with ongoing improvements in supply chain capabilities and performance of other IPs aside from LABUBU [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The Americas led the growth, with revenue increases of 1142% in the first half, and the company plans to open more flagship stores in the second half [1] - As of June, the number of overseas self-operated stores reached 162, an increase of 32 stores since the beginning of the year, with a target of 200 stores by year-end [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - In the domestic market, single-store revenue more than doubled, with annualized figures of 18 million yuan and 47.4 million yuan for mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan, respectively [2] - The operating profit margin for the China division increased by 13 percentage points to 49%, outperforming overseas margins [2] Group 4: IP Development - The company plans to launch a mini version of Labubu and collaborate with celebrity IPs like Zhou Shen and Sun Yanzi [2] - Although Labubu's revenue share increased to 35%, the revenue contribution from the second to fifth largest IPs remained around 10% each, indicating a balanced and healthy IP structure [2] Group 5: Margin and Efficiency - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 70%, with adjusted net margin reaching 34%, both showing significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases [3] - Inventory turnover days decreased to 83 days from 100 days last year, reflecting improved operational efficiency alongside a 200% revenue increase [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The company expects continued high growth while focusing on operational quality and long-term sustainable growth [3] - Key points for the second half include ramping up production capacity, enhancing production efficiency, and launching new products like mini Labubu [3]