近期，新能源上游多晶硅等原材料价格波动加剧，相关行业上市公司纷纷加大期货市场参与力度，参与家数与套期保值额度同步扩大。 事实上，今年以来，有越来越多的上市公司意识到价格风险管理的重要性，并通过多种方式和渠道参与期货及衍生品交易。 统计数据显示，仅10月份，发布套期保值相关公告的上市公司家数就达458家，较2024年同期增加218家，同比增长 2.3倍。按照当前趋势，年内参与套期保值的上 市公司数量将突破2000家。 2025年上半年，多晶硅现货价格从年初5.6万元/吨跌至6月底3.44万元/吨，跌幅达38.6%。受此影响，部分中小企业甚至以低于现金成本出货，全行业陷入连续六个 季度亏损的困境。随后，"反内卷"政策推动多晶硅和碳酸锂价格快速反弹。其中，多晶硅现货价格从6月底3.44万元/吨的低点，升至7月底4.71万元/吨，一个月内涨 幅达36.9%；多晶硅期货方面，9月5日多晶硅加权合约报57945元/吨，创上市以来新高，6月25日至9月5日期间涨幅高达91%。此后，多晶硅市场进入震荡格局。 新能源企业套保额度大幅增加 11月15日， 骆驼股份 公告称，公司预计动用的交易保证金和权利金上限不超过9000万元， ...

Group 1: Solar and Energy Stocks - Solar stocks showed recovery with New Special Energy (01799) up 4.99%, Flat Glass (06865) up 3.25%, Xinyi Solar (00968) up 3.75%, and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 2.27%. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that rumors about a polysilicon storage platform were false, aiming to malign the industry [1][2] - Energy storage concept stocks rose against the trend, with Longpan Technology (02465) up 17.09%, Ruipu Lanjun (00666) up 15.2%, and Zhongxin Innovation (03931) up 9.22%. Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have surged, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan/ton, doubling since mid-October [1] Group 2: Oil and Gas Stocks - Oil stocks collectively declined, with CNOOC (00883) down 3.14%, CNOOC Services (02883) down 2.98%, PetroChina (00857) down 2.09%, and Sinopec (00386) down 1.79%. OPEC's monthly report indicated a slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous predictions of sustained demand [2] Group 3: Steel and Mining Stocks - Steel stocks saw a midday surge, with Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) up 7.09%, Ansteel (00347) up 2.26%, and Chongqing Iron & Steel (01053) up 2.13%. The Simandou project in Guinea, which has the potential to become the fifth-largest mine globally, has commenced production [2] Group 4: Airline and Transportation Stocks - Southern Airlines (01055) rose over 3.9% after reporting a 2.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Group 5: Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals - Gilead Sciences (01672) increased over 5.7% as it announced the clinical development of new drugs ASC36 and ASC35 [3] - Zai Lab (02509) rose over 8.4% after announcing plans for continued related transactions for the commercialization of QX001S from 2026 to 2028 [4] Group 6: Gold Stocks - Gold stocks collectively rose, with China Gold International (02099) up 5.99%, Jihai Resources (02489) up 7.3%, and Lingbao Gold (03330) up 4.47%. Gold prices have surpassed $4,100 and are testing the $4,200 resistance level [4] Group 7: US Market Movements - Major tech stocks in the US fell, with Meta Platforms (META.US) down over 2.8%, Tesla (TSLA.US) down over 2%, and Amazon (AMZN.US) down over 1.9% [5] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 2.95%, reaching a historical high, after announcing a deal to lower GLP-1 drug prices to $245 per month, potentially opening a new market of 30 million people [5] - The US airline service sector saw gains, with United Airlines (UAL.US) up 5.29% and American Airlines (AAL.US) up 3.62%, as the government is expected to reopen soon [5] Group 8: Nuclear Energy Stocks - US nuclear energy stocks rose, with Oklo (OKLO.US) up 6.67% as the government plans to finance new nuclear power plants to meet the energy demands of AI development [6] Group 9: Company-Specific Developments - On Holding (ONON.US) surged over 17.9% after reporting Q3 net sales of 794.4 million Swiss francs, exceeding market expectations [7] - AMD (AMD.US) rose 9% as it projected a 35% annual growth rate in revenue over the next three to five years, driven by AI chip demand [7]

记者 宋笛 首先，由于多晶硅收储方案可能对市场格局和产能带来巨大改变，其本身就潜藏着对市场的极大影响。在多晶硅正经历技术迭代的关键时期，收储到底是利 大于弊还是弊大于利，就是需要谨慎衡量的。 退一步讲，即使综合评估后，认为收储对行业利大于弊，方案获得批准，整个过程也应该是极度审慎的。 但反观从5月至今的多晶硅收储进程，尽管方案并未最终落地，但相关上市公司人士多次在公开场合或者接受媒体采访时以各种方式提及硅料收储，行业的 小作文也此起彼伏，让整个进程始终处于一种反复被炒作，但信息极度混乱的情况中。 毫无疑问，如此庞大的收储方案，每一个进程都必然会引起相关资产价格的大幅波动。从5月至今，多晶硅价格已经出现明显上涨，相关上市公司价格也走 出低位。 这看起来好像是"反内卷"见效了，但这种回升是不是真实市场供需的反应？下游是否真的会为涨价买单？反复炒作的小作文在其中发挥了多少作用？这个过 程中是否有利益相关方不当得利？这些问题都需要认真思考。 多晶硅收储方案对行业是一次极具风险的尝试，其效果也将对其他行业"反内卷"提供参考。正因如此，相关方要拿出更谨慎和严肃的态度，严格地在市场化 和法治化的框架内推进方案，不要让多晶硅 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector has been experiencing a continuous rise, with stocks such as Guosheng Technology and Zhaoxin shares hitting the daily limit, while Yijing Optoelectronics and Tongwei Co. also saw significant increases [1] - Tongwei Co. has seen its stock price rise over 11% in recent trading days, closing at 27.16 yuan per share on November 10, compared to 24.4 yuan on November 5 [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Dynamics - The establishment of a joint storage plan for polysilicon is gaining traction, with 17 leading companies reportedly signing agreements to form a consortium, aiming to complete the setup by the end of the year [3] - The "anti-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic industry has led to a noticeable recovery in product prices, with polysilicon prices increasing significantly since July 2025, with quotes rising to 45,000-50,000 yuan, marking a 25%-35% increase [3] - The average prices for N-type and granular silicon have risen by 55% and 51% respectively from June to September 2025 [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Tongwei Co. reported a net profit of approximately -315 million yuan for Q3 2025, marking an 86.68% reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter, and a 62.69% reduction year-on-year, attributing the improvement to rising polysilicon prices and lower electricity costs [4] - Daqo New Energy also reported a turnaround in Q3, with unit sales prices for polysilicon increasing by over 36% compared to the previous quarter [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future price trends for polysilicon will depend on multiple factors, including capacity clearance efficiency and supply-demand balance [5] - Recent data indicates that the transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are stable, ranging from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton as of November 5, 2025 [6] - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic industry is likely to achieve supply-demand rebalancing through a combination of policy support, market-driven elimination, and technological advancements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, leading to a decline in polysilicon futures prices despite ongoing discussions about "stockpiling" policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November 7, polysilicon futures for the main contract closed at 53,215 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.51% [1] - The repeated announcements regarding "stockpiling" have diminished their impact on the market, with analysts noting that the lack of substantial progress has led to a reversion to fundamental trading [1][2] - The current market is characterized by weak fundamentals, with polysilicon prices unable to sustain high premiums due to insufficient support from the spot market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The polysilicon market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with supply expected to decrease by 12.4% due to maintenance by two major producers [2] - Demand is also weak, with a reported 53.75% year-on-year decline in photovoltaic installations, contributing to inventory pressures [2] - Current polysilicon inventory stands at a high of 301,000 tons, indicating an ongoing oversupply situation [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts are divided on the future of polysilicon prices, with some suggesting that if "stockpiling" funding issues are resolved, prices could stabilize or increase [3] - Conversely, if no substantial progress is made on "stockpiling," prices are likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [3] - The key factors influencing future price movements will be component prices and overall demand in the market [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16% at 4001.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.37% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 12,662 billion yuan, a decrease of 716 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,800 stocks declining [1][2] Sector Performance - The organic silicon sector surged due to the dual impact of polysilicon stockpiling and industry anti-involution news [1] - The fluorochemical, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and battery sectors showed significant gains [1] - Conversely, the AI corpus, software development, and component sectors experienced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment, with major indices showing declines, while the North Stock 50 index increased, indicating mixed market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.16% to 4001.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index also decreased by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.37% [1] - The North Stock 50 index rose by 0.93%, suggesting some sectors are performing better than others [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,662 billion yuan, a decrease of 716 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,800 stocks in the market experienced declines, reflecting a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon sector surged due to news related to polysilicon stockpiling and anti-involution measures within the industry [1] - The fluorochemical, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and battery sectors showed significant gains, indicating positive momentum in these areas [1] - Conversely, sectors such as AI corpus, software development, and components experienced declines, highlighting areas of weakness in the market [1]

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints - After the previous hedging, the price decline of industrial silicon is unlikely to cause production cuts or shutdowns in the short term, but the price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments during the dry season or the next wet season. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. Currently, policy trading may still outweigh fundamental trading. Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 180 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 4,105 yuan/ton to 56,410 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material of polysilicon remained unchanged at 53,200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Cost Increase, Polysilicon Focus on Storage Progress - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. Xinjiang opened 1 new furnace, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 3 and 6 furnaces respectively. Northern large factories may continue to resume production, while southern silicon factories are expected to significantly reduce production at the end of October. It is estimated that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to about 20 and that in Sichuan will drop to only 18 in November. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month-on-month, while the sample factory inventory increased by 0.04 million tons. Downstream maintains rigid demand purchases. When the market declines, aluminum factories actively place orders, and the basis of low-grade industrial silicon has strengthened. During the rising stage, it is in the state of inventory consumption. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will have difficulty in destocking in November and will destock about 1 million tons in December [2][13]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the price of organic silicon decreased slightly. Some devices of several companies were under maintenance or shut down. The overall enterprise start-up rate this week was 68.63%, the weekly output of organic silicon was 45,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.89%, and the inventory was 44,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.56%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading manufacturers maintain the price of dense re-feeding material above 53 yuan/kg, and downstream mainly purchase special doping materials at 49 - 50 yuan/kg. Considering the coming dry season, it is estimated that the polysilicon production schedule will drop to 115,000 tons in November. As of October 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons, and the raw material inventory of downstream crystal pulling factories was 218,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. If the platform company is successfully established and the storage details are implemented, the polysilicon price is expected to stabilize or even rise. Otherwise, the spot price may be under pressure [3][15]. - **Silicon Wafer**: This week, the price of silicon wafers decreased. The decline is related to overproduction. It is estimated that silicon wafer enterprises will reduce production from November. Whether the silicon wafer price can stabilize depends on whether the silicon material on the cost side continues to strongly support the price and the production reduction plan in November [16]. - **Battery Cell**: This week, the price of battery cells decreased. Overseas demand declined, and the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery cells continued to drop. The production schedule decline is not obvious. Due to the exemption of basic tariffs in India for Southeast Asian origins, the M10 battery is under pressure. The high price of G12 batteries has not been widely accepted by the component side, and the price is expected to decline. The G12R model continues to have an oversupply situation, and the future price is still not optimistic. Battery factories are under increasing cost pressure due to the sharp rise in silver paste prices and are now near cash losses [17]. - **Component**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. Some centralized procurement projects have a demand for high-power components above 700W, and leading component factories have raised their quotes. It is estimated that the domestic component production schedule will be 44.4GW in November, a month-on-month decrease of 1GW. There are concerns that the component production schedule will drop significantly in December. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand-side policies in the future [18]. 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: After the previous hedging, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4][19]. - **Polysilicon**: Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4][19]. 4. Hot News Summary - **Hoshine Silicon Industry**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company achieved an operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 75.6675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.12%. Although it is still in negative growth year-on-year, the single-quarter profit index has turned positive compared with the loss situation in the first half of the year [20]. - **Daqo New Energy**: In Q3, the company achieved an operating income of 1.7726423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 73.479 million yuan. Based on the current market dynamics, product prices, and market trends, combined with the progress of the annual routine maintenance plan, the company expects the polysilicon production in Q4 to be 39,500 - 42,500 tons, and the expected annual production in 2025 to be 121,000 - 124,000 tons [20]. - **Longi Green Energy**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2025 was 50.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 3.403 billion yuan [21]. 5. Industry Chain High-Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot prices, weekly production, and inventory data of industrial silicon [23][26][29]. - **Organic Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production data of DMC in organic silicon [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of polysilicon [36][39]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of silicon wafers [41][46]. - **Battery Cell**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of battery cells [47][52][53]. - **Component**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of components [55][61][62].

Group 1 - Domestic commodities mostly declined on October 31, with lithium carbonate dropping over 3%, and other commodities like 20 rubber, methanol, and silicon iron falling over 2% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1474.01 points, down 3.29 points or 0.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 2.73%, driven by positive rumors regarding "storage" initiatives, reaching a two-month high [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, recorded gains of over 1%, influenced by overseas market conditions and ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy [3] - The market for polysilicon is expected to see a supply contraction in November, further supporting price increases despite weak demand [2] - Other commodities like soybean meal, No. 2 yellow soybeans, and corn showed slight increases, contrasting with the overall market trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - New Special Energy (01799) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping nearly 8% during trading, with a current price of 8 HKD and a trading volume of 26.74 million HKD [1] Company Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, New Special Energy reported a revenue of 11.655 billion RMB and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 526 million RMB [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the total assets of the group amounted to 85.313 billion RMB [1] Industry Summary - Domestic leading photovoltaic companies are planning to form a joint storage initiative, aiming to complete the consortium by the end of the year [1] - According to a report by Wukuang Futures, policy expectations continue to have a strong impact on polysilicon prices [1] - There are ongoing market rumors regarding platform company developments, but the actual implementation timeline remains uncertain [1] - The market is currently experiencing intense speculation regarding expectations, with a focus on the actual realization of these developments in the future [1]