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国元国际:强政策预期支撑 短期多晶硅价格以稳为主
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 08:03
智通财经APP获悉,国元国际发布研报称,总体来看,多晶硅价格短期以稳为主。后续走势主要取决于 需求改善,以及四季度供给端减产政策的有效实施,进而带来供需格局的实质性改善。初步判断2026年 行业有望回归正常盈利。中长期来看,头部公司技术成本能耗优势显著,将成为产能出清后的受益者, 建议重点关注新特能源(01799)和协鑫科技(03800)。 产量方面,目前在产多晶硅企业数量维持在10家,整体开工率保持相对低位,硅料供应总体稳定。9月 国内多晶硅排产预计13万吨左右,目前对比下游需求仍然过剩。行业龙头计划在节后对川、滇基地进行 停产或减产。部分地区产能检修或降开工率,10月排产预计将下行。需求方面,临近假期,市场采购清 淡,主要在于下游龙头企业前期已大量囤货。在终端需求不及预期的背景下,下游当前的主要策略是优 先消耗自身库存,整体多晶硅签单节奏有所放缓。 该行提到,多晶硅持续超过40万吨的高位库存,在供需仍然过剩形势下,仍有小幅累积趋势。一方面, 市场需求不振,供应持续过剩,高库存累积;另一方面,行业自律减产叠加国家"反内卷"强政策预期支 撑下,硅料厂商极力挺价,出现多晶硅政策预期对峙高库存,市场博弈情绪进一步 ...
政策预期强仍存 短期内预计多晶硅期货高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-24 06:06
9月24日,国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中,多晶硅期货呈现震荡上行走势,截至发稿主力合约 大幅走高2.12%,报51235.0元/吨。 基本面来看,中财期货指出,9月份内蒙和青海地区存在减产预期,不过部分二三线企业出现复工动 作,9月份多晶硅产量环比或小幅下降。上周多晶硅周度产量环比小幅增加,整体仍维持高位。 需求端看,瑞达期货(002961)分析称,硅片价格小幅上行,部分企业提价,但下游观望浓厚。终端需 求疲软影响逐渐显现,从整体产业链来看,光伏产业链报价虽小幅上调,但市场供强需弱的格局没有改 变,终端成交压力较大,后续预计价格走弱,对多晶硅的需求形成一定抑制。 库存方面,近期多晶硅库存小幅波动,前期提货较多,库存有所下行。近期市场成交量有所减少,库存 变动放缓。 展望后市,东海期货表示,近期多晶硅、硅片、电池片现货价格涨价,政策预期强仍存,短期预计高位 震荡,关注现货价格支撑。 ...
多晶硅能耗将有新国标 约30%落后产能将被淘汰?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 00:22
近日,国家标准化管理委员会发布《硅多晶和锗单位产品能源消耗限额》等3项强制性国家标准(征求 意见稿),对多晶硅单位产品能耗标准进行修订,分别设定一级、二级、三级能耗限值为≤5kgce/kg、 5.5kgce/kg、6.4kgce/kg,对应三氯氢硅法约40.7kWh/kg-Si、48.8kWh/kg-Si、52.1kWh/kg-Si。 对此,中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发文称,该标准正式实施后,多晶硅单位产品能耗不达基准值要 求(6.4kgce/kg)的企业将被限期整改,逾期未改或整改后未达准入值(5.5kgce/kg)的企业将被关停。 根据初步统计,现有产能结构有序调整后,国内多晶硅有效产能将降至约240万吨/年,较2024年底下降 16.4%,与已建成的装置产能相比减少31.4%。 谈及征求意见稿对多晶硅行业的影响,国信期货分析师李祥英向期货日报记者表示,该标准目前处于征 求意见阶段,意见反馈截止时间为2025年11月15日,后续还需经过审查、批准、发布等环节,拟实施日 期为标准发布后12个月,预计正式施行时间将在2026年年底。标准实施后,是否就有约30%的多晶硅产 能被淘汰,要看政策的实际执行标准。 ...
多晶硅:现货价格提供底部刚性支撑,高位宽幅震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 02:34
Market Performance - The main contract price of polysilicon has significantly decreased, with the PS2511 closing at 48,690 CNY/ton, down 4.13%, with a trading volume of 502,410 lots and an open interest of 154,537 lots, reflecting a net increase of 17,059 lots [1] Future Outlook - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is expected to be between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - Polysilicon production is projected to rise to 125,000 tons in August, but will enter a production limit and sales control phase in September. Downstream inventory replenishment is expected to buffer the pressure from declining terminal demand [1] - In July, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was only 11 GW, indicating that domestic demand remains weak following the "rush installation" phase in the first half of the year [1] - Price rigidity is providing support for the market, but the policy-driven phase is entering a rational stage, with a decrease in risk appetite due to a policy vacuum and continuous increase in warehouse receipts, leading to wide fluctuations in the market [1] Risk Factors - The implementation of anti-involution policies has exceeded expectations, leading to a greater-than-expected reduction in polysilicon production [2] - As of August 27, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, with a net increase of 10 lots compared to the previous trading day [2] - Data indicates that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, with a new installed capacity of 223.25 GW during the same period. The newly installed capacity in July was only 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, marking a new low for 2025 [2]
硅业分会:多晶硅主流签单维稳 后市预期探涨
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 10:36
Core Insights - The price range for n-type polysilicon recycled materials is between 46,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon has increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 47,000 CNY per ton [1] - The number of main signing enterprises in the polysilicon market has decreased to 3-4, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] Price Trends - The price of n-type recycled materials is stable, while n-type granular silicon prices have seen a slight increase [2] - The average price for n-type recycled materials is 47,900 CNY per ton, with no fluctuation [2] - The average price for n-type granular silicon is 47,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.10 CNY increase [2] Market Dynamics - There has been a reduction in the signing volume of polysilicon, with some downstream companies extending their delivery periods to October to secure supply [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic due to self-reduction in production by companies and increased stocking demand from downstream [1] - The total production of polysilicon in September is expected to be around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, down from the original plan of 140,000 tons [1] Industry Participants - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 87% of domestic production [2][3] - The companies involved include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [3]
硅业分会:预估当前多晶硅价格已逼近阶段性高点
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing slight increases due to cost support, despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is reported to be between 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1] - The transaction volume of polysilicon has slightly decreased, but the number of signing companies has increased to six, with some companies maintaining prices while others raised prices by 1 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [2] - To alleviate supply-demand pressure, some silicon material companies are planning coordinated production cuts, which may stabilize output in September [2] - The current market pricing is approaching a temporary high point, with prices expected to stabilize unless there are significant changes in industrial policy or terminal demand [2]
煤炭上行提振市场情绪 多晶硅维持高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-06 06:04
Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, which reached a peak of 52,180 yuan, with a current price of 51,685 yuan, reflecting a 3.91% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Anxin Futures expects polysilicon to maintain high-level fluctuations supported by 47,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive export policy expectations and improved downstream battery orders [2] - Guoxin Futures indicates that the short-term polysilicon price will primarily experience fluctuations due to increased weekly production and stable prices of downstream products, despite weak terminal component demand [3] - Zhongcai Futures anticipates that polysilicon prices will maintain a range-bound trend, with production expected to increase significantly in August due to higher operating rates at leading manufacturers [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a significant increase in polysilicon production, with major companies ramping up operational rates, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious market sentiment towards high prices [3][4] - The overall market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a buildup of inventory, which may impact new installation capacity due to rising upstream product prices [4]
[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 成交相对集中 价格小幅上涨 (2025年7月30日)
Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]
瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250724
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 09:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon price increased due to rising coal and energy prices and the influence of the anti - involution conference, but it has deviated far from the fundamentals. If the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. With the possible addition of delivery brands by the exchange, the price may return to the mean. It is recommended not to chase the upward trend and suggests temporary observation or laying out put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,685 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 172,564 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,923 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon is 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,075 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,520 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 46,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 975 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no month - on - month change. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 26.63, with a month - on - month increase of 4.34 [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar on July 24, Yan Dazhou, the director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon has been continuously decreasing, and the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard per unit product of polysilicon is being promoted. The current first - level, second - level, and third - level comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon are ≤7.5 kgce/kg, 8.5 kgce/kg, and 10.5 kgce/kg respectively, and the revised corresponding standards are expected to be ≤5 kgce/kg, 6 kgce/kg, and 7.5 kgce/kg to eliminate backward production capacity [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing shutdown for maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution conference, production capacity declined significantly, but the price gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and the marginal demand has weakened. As the profits of silicon wafer enterprises stabilize, the overall decline in production is expected to end, and battery cell enterprises also have production reduction plans [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]
本周多晶硅成交订单增多 价格涨势趋稳
news flash· 2025-07-16 11:08
Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in multi-crystalline silicon transaction orders indicates a stabilization in price trends, despite weak fundamental support in supply and demand [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1] Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for multi-crystalline silicon remains weak, and there has not been a substantial improvement in supply and demand [1] - In the short term, silicon material prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend while remaining in a state of observation and minor fluctuations [1]