Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, which reached a peak of 52,180 yuan, with a current price of 51,685 yuan, reflecting a 3.91% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Anxin Futures expects polysilicon to maintain high-level fluctuations supported by 47,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive export policy expectations and improved downstream battery orders [2] - Guoxin Futures indicates that the short-term polysilicon price will primarily experience fluctuations due to increased weekly production and stable prices of downstream products, despite weak terminal component demand [3] - Zhongcai Futures anticipates that polysilicon prices will maintain a range-bound trend, with production expected to increase significantly in August due to higher operating rates at leading manufacturers [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a significant increase in polysilicon production, with major companies ramping up operational rates, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious market sentiment towards high prices [3][4] - The overall market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a buildup of inventory, which may impact new installation capacity due to rising upstream product prices [4]

Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon price increased due to rising coal and energy prices and the influence of the anti - involution conference, but it has deviated far from the fundamentals. If the downstream cannot absorb the high prices, it will form a negative feedback. With the possible addition of delivery brands by the exchange, the price may return to the mean. It is recommended not to chase the upward trend and suggests temporary observation or laying out put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,685 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 172,564 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,923 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon is 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,075 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,520 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 46,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 975 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no month - on - month change. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 26.63, with a month - on - month increase of 4.34 [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar on July 24, Yan Dazhou, the director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, stated that the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon has been continuously decreasing, and the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard per unit product of polysilicon is being promoted. The current first - level, second - level, and third - level comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon are ≤7.5 kgce/kg, 8.5 kgce/kg, and 10.5 kgce/kg respectively, and the revised corresponding standards are expected to be ≤5 kgce/kg, 6 kgce/kg, and 7.5 kgce/kg to eliminate backward production capacity [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing shutdown for maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. From the demand side, affected by the anti - involution conference, production capacity declined significantly, but the price gradually recovered. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down to a certain range, and the marginal demand has weakened. As the profits of silicon wafer enterprises stabilize, the overall decline in production is expected to end, and battery cell enterprises also have production reduction plans [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in multi-crystalline silicon transaction orders indicates a stabilization in price trends, despite weak fundamental support in supply and demand [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1] Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for multi-crystalline silicon remains weak, and there has not been a substantial improvement in supply and demand [1] - In the short term, silicon material prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend while remaining in a state of observation and minor fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is driven by improved transaction activity, but the fundamental support for these price increases remains weak, indicating a potential for short-term fluctuations rather than sustained growth [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon this week is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton, marking a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1]. - The overall transaction volume has significantly increased this week, with around six companies reaching new orders, indicating a notable improvement in market activity compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Currently, there are nine domestic polysilicon producers, with three gradually resuming production, which will have a limited impact on July's supply, expected to be around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to approximately 110,000 tons in August [2]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to remain stable at around 110,000 tons per month, with no new inventory pressure in the market [2]. - The price difference for recycled materials is as high as 9,000 yuan per ton, but this is unlikely to be sustainable due to cost pressures and the potential shift towards more price-attractive resources by downstream silicon wafer companies [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for polysilicon prices is weak, and the market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term [3]. - A significant price increase may occur if downstream silicon wafer companies are forced to reduce production due to high raw material costs and low downstream prices, which could improve the supply-demand relationship [3]. - The polysilicon market is anticipated to gradually return to rational development as supply contracts and downstream acceptance improves, alongside better market expectations [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the explosive growth in photovoltaic installations in the first five months of 2025 has likely overdrawn demand for the second half of the year, with a significant increase in installations leading to a pessimistic outlook for the third quarter [1][2] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installations reached 197.85 GW, a year-on-year increase of 149.97%, with May alone contributing 92.92 GW, marking a historical high [1] - The shift in domestic distributed photovoltaic policies and new energy market entry policies has led to a "rush installation" effect before the policy changes, resulting in a surge in installations from March to May [1][2] Group 2 - Following the end of the installation rush in June, there is a noticeable vacuum in terminal demand, with industry forecasts predicting a total annual installation of 215-255 GW, which seems unrealistic given the current pace [2] - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with the current number of polysilicon producers at 11, operating at reduced capacity, and expectations of production adjustments amid a declining price environment [3] - The market for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant reductions in orders for distributed projects and limited support from centralized projects, leading to a downturn in production across the supply chain [3] Group 3 - The market outlook for polysilicon prices indicates a sustained low-level operation, with current prices under pressure due to reduced demand and increased inventory levels [3][4] - The first quarter saw polysilicon prices remain high due to strong demand, but subsequent months have seen a decline in prices due to external pressures and reduced installation windows [4] - Strategies for downstream crystal pulling enterprises include buying near market lows to lock in procurement costs, while polysilicon producers may consider selling futures to hedge against profit volatility [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in the prices of polysilicon due to shrinking demand, with specific price ranges for n-type and p-type polysilicon showing a downward trend [1][2] - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is reported at 36,700 RMB/ton, down 2.13% week-on-week, while p-type polysilicon averages 30,700 RMB/ton, down 1.92% [1] - The industry is currently facing significant sales pressure, with non-leading enterprises having nearly sold out their low-priced inventory, indicating a cautious procurement approach from downstream companies [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies operating, all of which are running at reduced capacity [2] - Despite rumors of increased operating rates in June, the actual output remained stable without adding supply pressure, and two additional companies are planning maintenance in July, which will lead to a noticeable reduction in polysilicon output [2] - The continuous cost inversion pressure in the industry for over a year has brought polysilicon prices close to their bottom limit, suggesting a low likelihood of significant further declines in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various types of polysilicon remain stable despite limited order transactions following the holiday period [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 36,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan per ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 30,000 to 33,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [1] - Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, most orders have not yet been finalized, with only 3-4 companies signing new orders, indicating a temporary stability in prices [1] - There is still a certain demand for silicon material procurement from downstream, and the price will depend on the new round of orders, with limited expected decline [1] - The end of the terminal rush installation has occurred, and downstream crystal pulling plants are still exerting strong pressure on silicon material prices, making it difficult for companies to maintain price levels [1] - If prices decline further, more companies are expected to accelerate production halts and maintenance strategies to cope with extreme market conditions [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies, all operating at reduced capacity [2] - In May 2025, China's polysilicon production is projected to be 101,600 tons, reflecting a 2.52% increase compared to the previous period [2] - This month, polysilicon companies will undergo capacity replacement, which may lead to a slight increase in production at some bases, while overall supply is expected to remain stable [2] - It is anticipated that the monthly supply will gradually begin to decline in the third quarter, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand relations and potential for a phase of market recovery [2]

Group 1 - The price of polysilicon has slightly decreased this week, with n-type re-investment material trading at a range of 36,000-38,000 CNY/ton, averaging 37,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.85% month-on-month [1] - The trading price for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000-35,000 CNY/ton, averaging 34,500 CNY/ton, down 4.17% month-on-month [1] - The p-type polysilicon price remains stable, trading between 30,000-33,000 CNY/ton, with an average of 31,300 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month [1] - The decrease in prices is attributed to bulk transactions by companies and downstream firms lowering their raw material procurement price expectations [1] - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies, all operating at reduced capacity, and it is anticipated that production capacity will be replaced in June, maintaining stable monthly supply [2] Group 2 - The overall monthly polysilicon output is expected to be further reduced and maintained at a low level [2] - The recent price decline is also influenced by the upcoming wet season in the southwest region, leading polysilicon companies to accept some price adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes and price stagnation, with a pessimistic outlook due to insufficient downstream purchasing demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 39,000-45,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 CNY/ton. For n-type granular silicon, the price range is 38,000-41,000 CNY/ton, averaging 39,000 CNY/ton. The p-type polysilicon price range is 32,000-36,000 CNY/ton, with an average of 34,000 CNY/ton [1]. - Most polysilicon enterprises report a lack of downstream purchasing demand, making it difficult to secure orders for April. The market is currently in a stalemate, with few transactions and a general reluctance to sign new contracts [1]. - The stability in prices is primarily due to insufficient actual transaction data, despite some major manufacturers lowering their external quotes. The industry believes that the apparent price stability is temporary, as new orders have not yet materialized [1]. Group 2: Production and Supply - As of now, all operating polysilicon enterprises in China are running at reduced capacity, with one additional enterprise entering maintenance this month, slightly alleviating price pressure [2]. - In March 2024, China's polysilicon production reached 105,500 tons, with growth attributed to production line optimization and normal production fluctuations. The production forecast for April is maintained at around 105,000 tons [2].