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硅业分会:市场预期向好 多晶硅小单延续涨势
智通财经网· 2025-08-20 08:25
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support in the photovoltaic industry [2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 46,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1] - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1] Market Dynamics - The price increase is supported by a joint meeting of six ministries aimed at regulating competition in the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to avoid excessive competition [2] - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [2] - Major polysilicon producers are reducing production, which is expected to increase overall costs and lead to higher market prices due to regulatory constraints [2] Production and Inventory - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected production of approximately 125,000 tons in August [2] - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly [2] - Industry inventory is projected to continue accumulating, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons from August to September [2] Price Statistics - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type polysilicon are 52,000 CNY/ton and 45,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton [3] - The price fluctuations for n-type granular silicon show a highest price of 47,000 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 45,000 CNY/ton, with an average price increase of 3.37% [3] Participating Companies - The companies involved in the price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [4]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250613
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:03
Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract of polysilicon weakened again. The closing price of PS2507 was 33,585 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.39%. The trading volume was 65,591 lots, and the open interest was 61,695 lots, with a net increase of 1,499 lots [4] - Future Outlook: After the end of the terminal rush installation and with policies in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The weekly output in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to be around 100,000 tons. The potential supply pressure in the far - month is alleviated as the production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize. A meeting at the end of June may discuss further production cuts to support the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the end of the "rush installation" in the downstream photovoltaic terminal, with a significant decline in monthly demand both year - on - year and month - on - month. The market will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [4] Group 3: Market News - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 11, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, with a net increase of 120 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - Transaction Prices: The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - Industry Conference: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan Province from June 24 - 26 [5] - Project News: Dacheng New Energy's Anji Intelligent Manufacturing Base Project is expected to be completed and put into operation at the end of June. The project has a total investment of 4.7 billion yuan and plans to build a 4.8GW high - efficiency heterojunction battery + 7.2GW battery module fully automated intelligent production line in two phases [5]
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—节后首周签单 价格暂时稳定(2025年6月4日)
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various types of polysilicon remain stable despite limited order transactions following the holiday period [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 36,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan per ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 30,000 to 33,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [1] - Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, most orders have not yet been finalized, with only 3-4 companies signing new orders, indicating a temporary stability in prices [1] - There is still a certain demand for silicon material procurement from downstream, and the price will depend on the new round of orders, with limited expected decline [1] - The end of the terminal rush installation has occurred, and downstream crystal pulling plants are still exerting strong pressure on silicon material prices, making it difficult for companies to maintain price levels [1] - If prices decline further, more companies are expected to accelerate production halts and maintenance strategies to cope with extreme market conditions [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies, all operating at reduced capacity [2] - In May 2025, China's polysilicon production is projected to be 101,600 tons, reflecting a 2.52% increase compared to the previous period [2] - This month, polysilicon companies will undergo capacity replacement, which may lead to a slight increase in production at some bases, while overall supply is expected to remain stable [2] - It is anticipated that the monthly supply will gradually begin to decline in the third quarter, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand relations and potential for a phase of market recovery [2]
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—签单节奏放缓 观望节后市场变化(2025年4月30日)
本周多晶硅现货市场成交较少,价格逐渐松动。 n型复投料成交价格区间为3.70-4.50万元/吨,成交均价为3.92万元/吨,环比下降 2.73%;n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.60-3.80万元/吨,成交均价为3.70万元/吨,环比下降2.63%;p型多晶硅成交价格区间为3.10- 3.50万元/吨,成交均价为3.23万元/吨,环比下降2.12%。 本周多晶硅市场买卖双方博弈情绪依旧较强,下游企业采购心理预期价格较低,签单积极性较弱,多数企业仍在观望五一节后市场变 化。从市场供需的角度看,全社会多晶硅库存略有减少,但由于下游采购放缓,硅料库存向上游集中。 本轮行情多晶硅企业面临的困境主 要在于有价无市。 一方面,目前下游企业的预期价格过低,为绝大多数多晶硅企业难以承受的水平,已经严重偏离行业平均生产成本。另 一方面,本年光伏抢装带来的需求前置过于显著,导致 5月及6月下游企业开工就将开始出现一定下调。对多晶硅企业来讲,既不利于其稳 定产品价格,也不利于企业维持正常出货。目前部分多晶硅企业已经在积极评估筹划减停产方案以应对本次极端市场行情。 截至目前,我国所有在产多晶硅企业基本处于降负荷运行状态。预计 5月多晶硅 ...
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—成交量维持低位 价格震荡下行(2025年4月23日)
本周多晶硅市场处于僵持博弈状态,买方与卖方暂时没有达成较为一致的价格共识。根据企业反馈,目前部分硅料企业试探性对下游降低报 价,下游仍以不符合价格预期为由拒绝签单,选择采购更具有价格优势的菜花珊瑚料或等外品。因此,在本阶段多晶硅市场成交量较少,虽价格走 势较为 明确 ,但无法完全反映到实际的成交价格上面。 协鑫科技控股有限公司 东方希望集团有限公司 青海丽蒙清能股份有限公司 新疆晶诺新能源产业发展有限公司 内蒙古鄂尔多斯多晶硅业有限公司 数据来源:安泰科 本周多晶硅价格再度出现小幅下滑,主要原因在于目前二季度硅片产出不及预期。 4月硅料签单水平整体来看不及3月,而5月硅片开工预计出 现下滑,企业节后补库意愿不明确,很有可能继续维持小规模按需采购状态,硅料库存无法得到有效消纳。目前,大部分头部企业依旧处于减少签 单的挺价状态,但随着挺价企业的出货压力累积,硅料价格预计将迎来一次小幅的调整。 截至目前,我国所有在产多晶硅企业基本处于降负荷运行状态,本月 总计 1家企业 进入检修状态,预计对整体产量影响较为有限。 2025年3 月,我国多晶硅进口2906.05吨,环比减少7.10%。我国多晶硅出口2005.65吨, ...
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—本月签单基本结束 价格平稳运行(2025年3月19日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-03-19 09:20
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon remains stable this week, with specific price ranges and average prices for different types of polysilicon being reported. The overall market dynamics indicate a low transaction volume and high inventory levels among downstream enterprises, affecting price transmission in the supply chain [1]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 39,000-46,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 41,700 CNY/ton. The n-type granular silicon has a transaction price range of 38,000-41,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 39,000 CNY/ton. The p-type polysilicon has a transaction price range of 32,000-36,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 34,000 CNY/ton [1]. Market Dynamics - A few polysilicon companies have completed their orders for the month, while others still have room for signing contracts. The number of companies that have transacted n-type polysilicon this week is seven. Feedback from enterprises indicates that the transaction volume is at a low level, with downstream companies maintaining high raw material inventory and only engaging in essential purchases [1]. Inventory and Production - The high inventory levels and low purchasing frequency among downstream enterprises significantly impact the smooth transmission of prices in the supply chain, resulting in the continued low and stable operation of polysilicon prices during this round of installations. As of now, all operating polysilicon companies in China are basically running at reduced capacity, and the expected maintenance plans for this month have been postponed, with no companies undergoing maintenance during the month [1]. Future Outlook - According to the production plans for April, an overall increase in demand is expected, and the polysilicon sector is likely to maintain a slight destocking trend. With the upcoming warehouse receipt registration in April, some companies have begun to actively increase the proportion of dense material products, which may lead to clearer demand from traders and futures merchants, potentially creating a new growth point [1].
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—新一轮签单持续 价格暂时持稳(2025年3月12日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-03-12 13:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is currently stable in terms of pricing, with various types of polysilicon maintaining steady transaction prices [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 39,000 to 46,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton [1] - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon ranges from 38,000 to 41,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 39,000 yuan/ton, while p-type polysilicon has a price range of 32,000 to 36,000 yuan/ton, averaging 34,000 yuan/ton [1] - Major polysilicon enterprises are currently in the order signing phase, with seven companies reporting transactions for n-type polysilicon this week [1] - Despite some price increases from leading companies to downstream clients, actual transaction prices have remained stable, indicating a cautious market outlook [1] - The current inventory levels of polysilicon are high, making it difficult for price increases to be transmitted to the silicon material end [1] - The production motivation for most operating companies remains insufficient as the signing prices do not cover production costs, leading to a stable production forecast for the next two months [1] Group 2 - As of now, all operating polysilicon companies in China are generally running at reduced capacity, with one company undergoing maintenance and at least two companies slightly increasing their operating rates [2] - The overall production forecast for this month is maintained at approximately 97,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in output [2]