Key Takeaways MO's cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in Q3, pushing it to accelerate the smoke-free strategy.MO launched on! PLUS, a premium nicotine pouch aimed at smokeless tobacco users and rival pouch customers.Altria submitted FDA applications for the Ploom heated tobacco system through its Horizon joint venture.Altria Group, Inc. ((MO) is reshaping the growth strategy as cigarette demand weakens, raising questions about whether its smoke-free push can stabilize growth over time. In the third quarte ...

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc.'s nicotine pouch business, operated through Helix Innovations, is becoming a significant driver of the company's oral tobacco segment as traditional categories decline [1][5] Group 1: Helix Innovations Performance - Helix shipped 42.2 million cans of on! in the third quarter of 2025, with shipments for the first nine months rising 14.8% to 133.6 million cans, outperforming other oral tobacco categories [2][9] - Helix's contribution to earnings quality is notable, stabilizing adjusted operating income and expanding margins despite a decline in total segment volumes [3][9] - Helix launched on! PLUS in select states, offering multiple flavors and nicotine strengths, which could further enhance growth [3] Group 2: Pricing and Market Position - Average nicotine pouch prices fell approximately 7% nationally, while on! retail prices increased by about 1.5% year over year in the third quarter [4][9] - on!'s retail share of total oral tobacco remained at 8.7%, unchanged sequentially and down 0.1 share point year over year [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. reported a 36% increase in global ZYN can shipments and a 39% growth in U.S. ZYN offtake, supported by commercial activities and capacity investments [6] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. experienced a 627.6% year-over-year growth in modern oral segment net sales, now representing 30.8% of its revenues, and raised its full-year sales outlook to $125-$130 million [7] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria's shares have decreased by 0.8% in the past month, while the industry has grown by 1.6% [8] - Altria trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.36X, lower than the industry's average of 14.47X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 6.3% and 2.3%, respectively [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are major players in the global tobacco industry, each with unique geographic exposure and strategic focuses [1][2] - Altria has a market capitalization of approximately $98.5 billion, primarily focused on the U.S. market, while Philip Morris has a larger market cap of about $248.6 billion, reflecting its international presence and innovation in reduced-risk products [1][2] Altria's Position - Altria maintains a strong position in the U.S. tobacco market, with a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin in Q3 2025, indicating strong pricing power despite declining cigarette volumes [3][6] - The company is investing in smoke-free products, with on! nicotine pouch shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date, and continues to innovate with products like on! PLUS and Horizon's Ploom [4][8] - Altria increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share in August 2025, marking its 60th dividend increase in 56 years, and expanded its share-repurchase authorization to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 8.2% in Q3, and Marlboro's market share decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris' Growth - Philip Morris is increasingly focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with shipments growing by 16.6% year-over-year [7][9] - Key smoke-free brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV are driving revenue growth, with IQOS leading in heated tobacco globally [9] - Operational discipline and cost controls have supported margin expansion and earnings growth, while the combustible segment remains under pressure with a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes [10][11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of approximately 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, remaining unchanged at $5.44 and $5.56 respectively [12] - For Philip Morris, the consensus estimate implies year-over-year growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.3% for 2026, with estimates slightly down to $7.50 and $8.35 [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Altria's shares have increased by 17.4%, while Philip Morris has seen a stronger gain of 33.9% [15] - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.54, below its one-year median of 10.80, while Philip Morris' forward P/E ratio stands at 19.17, also below its median of 20.59 [16] Investment Appeal - Philip Morris offers stronger global growth and leadership in reduced-risk products, while Altria provides a compelling value proposition with higher income visibility and resilient margins [17] - Altria is viewed as a better option for income-focused investors seeking stability and consistent returns amid the industry's transition to smoke-free products [17]

Valuation and Market Position - Altria Group, Inc. is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.46, which is below the Tobacco industry's average of 13.89, the Consumer Staples sector's 16.02, and the S&P 500's 23.46, indicating an attractive valuation [1] - Compared to major peers, Altria remains discounted, with Philip Morris International Inc. at 18.12, Turning Point Brands, Inc. at 24.78, and British American Tobacco p.l.c. at 11.82 [1] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Altria's stock rose 1.1%, outperforming Turning Point Brands' 0.9% gain and Philip Morris' 3% decline, while British American Tobacco led with a 3.4% increase [6] - The Consumer Staples sector and the tobacco industry saw declines of 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively, while the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, highlighting Altria's strong positioning [7] Financial Fundamentals - In Q3 2025, Altria's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 3.6% to $1.45, with year-to-date EPS up 5.9%, driven by higher adjusted operating companies income (OCI) and a lower share count [11] - The smokeable products segment maintained impressive adjusted OCI margins of 64.4%, supported by effective pricing strategies [11] Product Strategy - Marlboro's premium-segment share expanded to 59.6%, reinforcing Altria's pricing power and brand strength, while the Basic brand gained share without detracting from Marlboro [12] - Altria's oral tobacco portfolio, particularly the on! brand, showed growth with a nearly 1% increase in volume and adjusted OCI margins expanding to 69.2% [13] Strategic Initiatives - Altria's collaboration with KT&G aims to enhance international modern oral expansion and explore operational efficiencies in traditional tobacco [14] - The company has consistently returned cash to shareholders, marking its 60th dividend increase in 56 years, which supports its stability and long-term growth [14] Volume Challenges - Altria faces significant volume pressures, with cigarette shipment volumes falling 8.2% in Q3 and 10.6% year-to-date, attributed to macroeconomic strains and competition from unregulated flavored disposable e-vapor products [15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings has seen mixed revisions, with the 2025 EPS estimate increasing by 1 cent to $5.44, while the 2026 estimate decreased by 1 cent to $5.56 [18] - Altria is projected to deliver solid earnings growth of 6.3% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, despite modest adjustments [18]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are key players in the global tobacco industry, each with distinct strategies and strong brand portfolios [1][2] - The tobacco industry is transforming due to declining cigarette use, regulatory pressures, and consumer interest in smoke-free technologies, prompting both companies to innovate and restructure [2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria holds a dominant position in the U.S. tobacco market with a 45.4% cigarette retail share and Marlboro's 59.6% share in the premium segment as of Q3 2025 [3] - The smokeable segment achieved a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin, indicating strong pricing power despite volume pressures [3] - Altria's strategy includes enhancing profitability while expanding into oral nicotine, heated tobacco, and e-vapor platforms, with on! shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date [4] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share, marking its 60th increase in 56 years, and expanded its share repurchase program to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in the quarter, and Marlboro's total-category share declined to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris is focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with smoke-free gross profit reaching a record $3.1 billion [7][8] - Shipments of IQOS increased by 15.5% to 40.8 billion units, maintaining a 76% global share of heated tobacco units [8] - Adjusted operating income rose 12.4% to $4.7 billion, with margins expanding to 43.1%, and adjusted EPS increased 17.3% to $2.24 [10] - Despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes, pricing strength lifted net revenues by 4.3% [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of around 6.3%, with the 2025 EPS estimate at $5.44 [12] - For Philip Morris, the 2025 EPS estimate implies a year-over-year growth of 14.3%, with the estimate at $7.51 [14] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Altria's shares gained 9.3%, while Philip Morris's shares advanced by 22.7% [16] - Altria trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.57, while Philip Morris's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.9 [18] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger growth story due to its shift towards smoke-free products and disciplined cost strategy, while Altria offers stability and consistent cash flows [20]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is at a critical juncture as nicotine pouches capture 55.7% of the U.S. oral tobacco market, marking an 11.1-point year-over-year increase, which is altering market dynamics [1][8] - The company faces challenges in maintaining its market share in the rapidly growing oral segment, with its on! brand holding an 8.7% share of the total U.S. oral tobacco category and a reduced 15.6% share in the nicotine pouch segment, down 4.1 points due to competitive promotional activities [1][8] Market Dynamics - Competitor promotions have led to a 7% decrease in average retail prices for nicotine pouches nationally, with some major retail chains experiencing price drops exceeding 70% [2] - Altria's on! brand saw a retail price increase of approximately 1.5% during the same period, indicating a divergence from the broader category pricing trends [2] - Despite the promotional environment, Altria reported steady retail takeaway for on!, suggesting consistent consumer demand [2] Product Development - To enhance its competitive position, Altria is launching on! PLUS, a next-generation nicotine pouch aimed at improving comfort, nicotine delivery, and flavor satisfaction [3] - The product has been introduced in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina, with early research indicating higher purchase intent compared to several competing brands [3] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. reported a 16.9% increase in global pouch shipments and a 39% growth in U.S. ZYN offtake, supported by extensive commercial activities and investments in capacity [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. experienced a remarkable 627.6% year-over-year growth in modern oral segment net sales, reaching $36.7 million, which now constitutes nearly 30.8% of its total revenues [6] Financial Performance - Altria's shares have declined by 9.8% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.47X, lower than the industry average of 14.12X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimates project year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc.'s oral tobacco business achieved a significant margin performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted operating company income margins increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 69.2% despite a decline in segment revenues and a 9.6% drop in overall shipment volumes [1][7] - The margin expansion is attributed more to pricing power rather than product mix, as Altria raised prices while maintaining strong pricing discipline, even as competitors in the pouch category reduced prices [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The oral tobacco margin of 69% reflects effective pricing strategies and cost control in a competitive market, indicating that Altria can sustain profitability through disciplined execution [3][7] - Altria's shares have decreased by 12.5% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's decline of 5.7% [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.33X, lower than the industry average of 13.44X, suggesting potential undervaluation [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [9] - Current earnings estimates for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 are projected at $1.30 and $1.24, respectively, with the current year estimate at $5.43 and next year at $5.57 [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 3.6% in Q3 and by 5.9% for the first nine months [20] - Adjusted operating companies income (OCI) for smokeable products grew by 0.7% to nearly $3 billion in Q3 and by 2.5% to $8.4 billion for the first nine months [20] - Adjusted OCI margins expanded to 64.4% for both Q3 and the first nine months, representing margin growth of 1.3 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points respectively [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8.2% in Q3 and 10.6% for the first nine months when adjusted for trade inventory movements [21] - The oral tobacco products segment saw adjusted OCI decline by less than 1% in Q3, but adjusted OCI increased by 3.3% with margin expansion of 1.8 percentage points to 69% [24][25] - Helix's reported shipment volume for on! increased by nearly 1% in Q3 and approximately 15% for the first nine months [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nicotine pouch category grew to 55.7 share points, an increase of 11.1 share points year-over-year [7] - The e-vapor category included approximately 21 million vapers, up nearly 2 million versus a year ago [13] - The discount segment of the industry expanded by 2.4 share points year-over-year, with Basic capturing over half of that growth [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its smoke-free portfolio and exploring international opportunities through a collaboration with KT&G [5][18] - The launch of on! PLUS is seen as a premium product aimed at appealing to both adults who dip and competitive nicotine pouch consumers [10] - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders, as evidenced by a recent dividend increase and an expansion of the share repurchase program [5][27] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are under pressure but are seeing some consistency in gas prices and inflation [33] - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment, particularly with recent FDA actions that may streamline product authorizations [16] - The company raised the lower end of its 2025 guidance range, expecting adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $5.37-$5.45, representing a growth rate of 3.5%-5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024 [26] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $6 billion to shareholders in the first nine months, including $5.2 billion in dividends and $712 million in share repurchases [27] - The balance sheet remains strong, with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2x as of September 30 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on fourth quarter earnings growth and smokeable OCI - Management acknowledged the impact of share repurchase and MSA legal fund expiration on earnings growth, while monitoring consumer spending in a dynamic marketplace [31] Question: Drivers behind the moderation in cigarette industry decline - Management indicated that consistency in consumer pressures and stepped-up enforcement in e-vapor are influencing market dynamics [34] Question: Performance and positioning of on! in a competitive environment - Management expressed satisfaction with on!'s performance despite competitive pressures, highlighting steady retail takeaway volume [37] Question: Opportunities from the KT&G partnership - Management outlined three prongs of the partnership: expanding modern oral initiatives, exploring non-nicotine opportunities, and improving operational efficiencies [40] Question: Pricing strategy for on! PLUS - Management confirmed that on! PLUS is positioned as a premium product, with introductory price promotions planned for its launch [48] Question: Impact of FDA pilot program on product launches - Management emphasized the importance of a functioning regulatory system and indicated that decisions will be made in the long-term best interest of the company [57]

Financial Performance - Altria's adjusted diluted EPS increased by 3.6% from $1.40 in Q3 2024 to $1.45 in Q3 2025[8] - For the first nine months of 2025, Altria returned nearly $6 billion to shareholders, including $5.2 billion in dividends and $712 million in share repurchases[98] - Altria increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share[19] - The company expanded its existing share repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion[19] - The company is raising the lower-end of its full-year 2025 guidance range and now expects to deliver adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.37 to $5.45, representing a growth rate of 3.5% to 5.0% from 2024[95] Oral Tobacco Category - The oral tobacco industry volume increased by 14.5% for the six months ended September 30, 2025[22] - Oral nicotine pouches retail share of the oral tobacco category increased by 11.1 percentage points from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, reaching 55.7%[22] - on! reported shipment volume increased by 0.7% in Q3 2025, with 42.2 million cans shipped[25] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, on! reported shipment volume increased by 14.8% to 133.6 million cans[25] - on!'s share of the oral tobacco category increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.7% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[28] Regulatory and Enforcement - Horizon submitted a combined PMTA & MRTPA to the FDA[32] - The FDA launched a pilot program to streamline PMTA reviews for oral nicotine pouches, and applications for on! PLUS are included in the program[47, 49]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are navigating a transforming tobacco market with distinct strategies, focusing on smoke-free alternatives and maintaining strong brand presence [1][2] Altria Group, Inc. - Altria's pricing power is a key factor in its financial resilience, with a 10% net price realization in smokeable products leading to a 4.2% increase in adjusted operating companies income (OCI) in Q2 2025 [6] - The oral tobacco segment, particularly the on! nicotine pouch brand, saw shipments rise 26.5% year over year, contributing to a 10.9% increase in adjusted OCI [7] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 8.3% year over year to $1.44 in Q2 2025, with revenues net of excise taxes at $5.29 billion [8] - Marlboro maintains a 59.5% share in the premium category, showcasing Altria's strong market position and ability to adapt to a smoke-free future [10] Philip Morris International Inc. - Philip Morris's growth is driven by smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025 [11] - Shipments of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV showed significant growth, with IQOS shipments up 15.5% to 41 billion units, maintaining a 76% global share in heated tobacco [12] - Adjusted operating income rose 12.4% to $4.7 billion, with adjusted EPS increasing 17.3% to $2.24, supported by strong performance in smoke-free products [13] - Despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes, Philip Morris managed a 4.3% increase in net revenues through pricing strategies [14] Market Performance - Altria's stock has gained 25.3% over the past year, outperforming Philip Morris's 13.1% increase and the broader S&P 500's 20.6% rise [21] - Altria is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11.41, while Philip Morris's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.24 [20] Investment Outlook - Altria is positioned as a better investment for income-focused investors due to its attractive valuation, robust pricing power, and growing smoke-free momentum, while Philip Morris offers stronger global growth potential [22]