本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research Global Precious Metals Comment 2025 Gold Outlook The gold rally continues We summarise our views on gold in this chart pack. FX Global This report has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 22. 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 2025 Gold Outlook : The rally continues Global Precious Metals ...

Summary of Global Energy Storage Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Energy Storage** industry, particularly the **battery market** and **electric vehicle (EV)** sales dynamics in 2024 and projections for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Battery Demand and Market Dynamics - Total battery demand is projected to grow by **30% year-on-year (y-o-y)** in 2025, driven by robust growth in **China's EV sales** and recovery in **European EV demand** due to stricter CO2 emissions standards [2][10] - In 2024, battery demand growth was also **30%**, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in **China** and **global energy storage systems (ESS)**, despite a slowdown in the US and Europe [2][10] - The **xEV sales** in China are expected to grow by **20%** in 2025, with total global xEV sales reaching **20 million units** [32][37] Regional Performance - **China** achieved an EV penetration rate of **50%** in 2024, significantly outperforming the US and Europe, where penetration rates were **10%** and **20%**, respectively [19][17] - The **US** market is anticipated to grow by **10%** y-o-y in 2025, although challenges remain due to potential policy changes and infrastructure issues [36][10] - **European EV sales** are expected to rebound with a **30%** growth in 2025, driven by new emissions regulations [35][10] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes a **60% collapse in lithium prices** and a **30% decline in battery prices**, which negatively impacted revenue and earnings for battery manufacturers, particularly in Korea [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at **$12,000 per ton** in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [3][10] Capacity and Utilization - Total battery capacity is projected to grow by **45%** y-o-y to **4,431 GWh** in 2025, with local capacity expected to meet demand across major economies [4][10] - Utilization rates for battery plants, particularly in China, are currently low (30-40%), but improvements are anticipated as companies focus on efficiency [4][10] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - **CATL** remains the market leader with a **35%** share, followed by **BYD** at **18%** and **LGES** at **13%** [5][10] - The report highlights **CATL** and **Samsung SDI** as top picks for investment, citing their strong growth potential and favorable valuations [6][10] Investment Implications - Despite challenges in the US and European markets, the overall outlook for battery demand remains positive, with expectations of revenue and earnings growth in 2025 [10][6] - The report recommends **Tianqi Lithium** and **CATL** as top investment opportunities, emphasizing their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][10] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the destocking cycle in the Chinese battery value chain has largely ended, but high inventory levels in Korean and Western companies may pose short-term challenges [3][10] - The performance of battery cell makers has been better than that of battery components and lithium companies, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [21][10] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global energy storage market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and investment opportunities for 2025.

Summary of Global Real Estate Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The global real estate sector experienced a return of only +1.6% in 2024, underperforming the global stock market by 16.4% [9][4] - The variance in performance was wider by sectors than by countries, with a sector variance of 40%, which is 9 percentage points larger than the historical average [2][4] - The US real estate market saw a decline of -7.4% in December 2024 due to Federal Reserve rate jitters [2][4] Key Performance Metrics - The global real estate index returned +1.6% in 2024, with the US being the strongest region for most of the year but ending negatively [2][9] - The US 10-year bond yields rose by 77 basis points, impacting real estate returns [2][4] - The estimated return for global real estate coverage (excluding emerging markets) is ~14% with a 10.2% discount to NAV [4][10] Sector Performance - Healthcare (+21.0%) and Specialty (+18.7%) were the best-performing sectors, while Industrial (-18.4%) and Diversified (-5.9%) performed the worst [3][4] - In Australia, real estate returned +10.5% over the last year, outperforming the global average by 8.9 percentage points [42][43] - The Australian REIT sector saw significant performance dispersion, with GMG leading at +42% [43][44] Regional Insights - In China, the real estate sector is expected to continue destocking into 2025, potentially ending by mid-2026 [2][65] - Hong Kong real estate returned -10.8% over the last year, underperforming the global average by 12.4 percentage points [64][65] - Japan's real estate returned +2.9%, outperforming the global average by 1.3 percentage points [55][56] Investment Outlook - The US market is expected to experience transitional volatility in early 2025, favoring companies with high-quality portfolios in subsectors with strong demand visibility [2][85] - The forecast for US REIT total returns in 2025 is between 5.0% and 7.0%, driven by improved earnings growth and dividend yields [87][85] - Preferred REIT subsectors include Triple Net, Single Family Rentals, and Shopping Centers, while caution is advised for Malls and Office spaces [85][86] Valuation Metrics - The global real estate sector is trading inline with its historical average on a P/NAV basis, with a current discount of 10.2% [10][13] - The 12-month forward P/E ratio is priced at 15.9x, trading 0.7 standard deviations below the 10-year average [10][4] Notable Stock Picks - Top picks include CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial, and UOL in Singapore; BEKE and CR Land in China; and Agree Realty and Invitation Homes in the US [5][51][87] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of selectivity in investing, particularly in the US REIT market, where demand visibility is crucial for performance [86][85] - The analysis indicates that the investment market may not normalize in 2025 due to persistent gaps between buyers' and sellers' expectations [78][79]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Core Mid Cap Core Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Mid Cap Core managers trailed the Russell Mid benchmark by -0.5% in 2024 (14.8% vs. 15.3%), net of fees. Despite outperforming in December, managers lagged by -0.5% during 4Q. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.1% to performance in 2024. An overweight position in Financials ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Home Appliances - **Research Firm**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited - **Date**: January 8, 2025 Core Insights - **Consumer Goods Trade-In Program**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced details for the 2025 consumer goods trade-in program, which is perceived to be better than expected due to its wider coverage and increased subsidies for air conditioning units [5][1]. - **Subsidy Expansion**: The program expands subsidy coverage from eight to twelve home appliance categories, adding microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers. Consumers can receive subsidies for up to three AC units and one item from each of the other eleven categories, capped at 20% of the retail price (maximum Rmb2,000/unit) [5][1]. - **Consumer Electronics Inclusion**: The program also includes three consumer electronics categories (smartphones, tablets, smartwatches) with a subsidy of up to 15% of the retail price (maximum Rmb500/unit) [5][1]. Company Preferences - **Investment Preference**: The report indicates a preference order for leading home appliance companies: Midea (Overweight), Gree (Overweight), and Haier (Equal Weight) [1][1]. Valuation and Price Targets - **Midea Group**: Valuation based on a sum of parts approach, with a target price of Rmb88/share, reflecting a 2024 estimated P/E of 16x, which is above its historical average [8][1]. - **Gree Electric Appliances**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 9x, slightly below its historical average, indicating a weaker growth outlook compared to previous cycles [10][1]. - **Haier Smart Home**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 13.5x, which aligns with its historical average, highlighting its strong market position in refrigerators and washing machines [15][1]. Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Potential for a better-than-expected rebound in the Chinese property market, less competition from key players, and successful mergers and acquisitions [13][1][18][1]. - **Downside Risks**: Risks include fierce market competition, unfavorable foreign exchange movements, and execution risks related to M&A transactions [14][1][19][1]. Conclusion - The 2025 consumer goods trade-in program is expected to positively impact leading home appliance companies, with Midea, Gree, and Haier positioned favorably. The valuation methodologies and associated risks highlight the dynamic nature of the market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and competitive pressures.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:17 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: A Year of Uncertainties 20025 will likely be a year of external (tariffs, sanctions) and internal (policy, competition) uncertainties, while we expect internet companies to navigate with AI strategy, overseas expansion and capital return. Key OWs: Tencent (Top Pick), TCOM, Meituan; EWs: BABA, JD, KS, BIDU. 2025 will likely be a year of external and internal uncertainties: Externally, we see uncer ...

ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Value Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Value Mid Cap Value managers trailed the Russell Mid Value by -1.0% in 2024 (12.1% vs. 13.1%), net of fees. December was a particulary favorable month, with managers outperforming by +1.0%, and offsetting a more difficult October/November. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions neither helped nor hurt performance in 2024. Ma ...

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Sector Performance in 2024**: European Insurance was the second best performing sector in 2024, up c.25% and outperforming the market by c.15%. This was driven by pricing momentum and favorable market conditions. 2. **Sector Outlook for 2025**: The outlook for the insurance sector in 2025 is more cautious. Key themes include lower bond yields, peak pricing levels, and increased M&A activity. 3. **Downgrade in Industry View**: The industry view has been downgraded from Attractive to In-Line due to the current stage in the interest rate cycle and pricing cycles, as well as higher valuations. **Key Themes** 1. **Lower Bond Yields**: Bond yields are expected to fall through 2025, which could negatively impact insurance earnings, particularly for P&C businesses. This is due to the new accounting methodology (IFRS 17) making insurance earnings more sensitive to interest rate movements. 2. **Peak Pricing**: Most lines of business and industries are at or near peak pricing levels, with the risk of further declines in pricing. This is particularly evident in commercial and reinsurance sectors. 3. **M&A Activity**: Insurers will need to focus on volume growth to drive top-line and bottom-line momentum, leading to increased M&A activity. This is expected to be driven by in-market consolidation rather than large-scale transactions. **Top Picks** 1. **a.s.r.**: a.s.r. is highlighted as a Top Pick due to its strong balance sheet, potential for positive surprises from the Aegon integration and PIM approval, and higher PRT business appetite. 2. **AXA**: AXA is another Top Pick, offering attractive total distribution yields and a free cash flow yield of c.9.2% in 2026e. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from the sale of AXA IM to BNP. 3. **Hannover Re**: Hannover Re is a quality compounder with a strong track record of outperforming in softer pricing environments. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expected decline in reinsurance pricing in 2026. **Downgrades** 1. **NN Group**: NN Group is downgraded to Underweight due to ongoing pressures on its Dutch Life solvency position, which is sensitive to financial market movements. 2. **Zurich**: Zurich is downgraded to Underweight due to limited upside to valuation and its leverage to a decelerating commercial lines pricing environment. **Other Important Points** 1. **Solvency**: The insurance sector is well capitalized, with strong solvency ratios. However, there could be some volatility in solvency ratios through 2025 due to falling bond yields. 2. **Debt Leverage**: Debt leverage levels have improved in recent years, with the sector generally in good shape. However, there is a risk of higher interest costs if bond yields were to rise. 3. **Asset Risk**: The insurance sector is exposed to potential financial asset market shocks, particularly in the event of a major credit shock. However, the risk of this is considered low at present. 4. **Technology**: Technology is expected to play a key role in the need for consolidation within the insurance sector, with companies that are further ahead of the curve in this respect being better positioned to benefit.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Equity Derivatives Strategy 2025 Volatility Outlook: Uncertainty reigns A new ballgame for volatility – see Macro volatility backdrop We have consolidated our multitude of new models for directional relative value and macro/market/stock-specific volatility forecasting. These are well-tested and in some cases use innovative approaches to model probability distributions that we compare to the option-implied (market) distribution ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research U.S. Transportation Freight Transports 2025 Outlook Equities North America Transportation Services Thomas Wadewitz Analyst thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com +1-212-713 6116 Michael Triano Analyst michael.triano@ubs.com +1-212-713 3822 Michael DiMattia Analyst michael.dimattia@ubs.com +1-617-748 5628 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Rese ...