China A-shares Monthly Wrap Dec 2024: Market supported by onshore net inflows 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Strategy 02 January 2025 Key market drivers: A-share indices have been largely narrowly range-bound over the past month (CSI300: +0.5%, CSI500: -2.2%, and CSI1000: -3.7%), while HSI (+3.3%) and HSCEI (+4.9%) recorded stronger rebounds (Figure 1). Most onshore investors we spoke with seemed to be convinced by state-owned funds' efforts to stabilize the A-share market, and hesitant to clos ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Americas Technology: Security** sector, particularly the performance of various security companies in 2024 and projections for 2025 [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance Drivers**: The performance of security stocks in 2024 was largely influenced by market perceptions of companies as platforms versus point products. Notable performers included **Fortinet (FTNT)** (+63%), **CrowdStrike (CRWD)** (+37%), and **Cloudflare (NET)** (+31%), while **Okta (OKTA)** (-12%), **Zscaler (ZS)** (-17%), and **SentinelOne (S)** (-18%) lagged [2][4]. 2. **Platform Strategy Importance**: Companies that successfully executed platform strategies saw positive estimate revisions and multiple expansions, indicating a shift in investor confidence towards durable growth in a volatile sector. The prioritization of "investing in platforms" among CIOs increased from 13% in 2023 to 19% in 2024 [2][4][10]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The security sector is expected to grow at an average rate of 9% in 2024, stabilizing after a period of deceleration. This reflects a second derivative inflection, suggesting that the pace of deceleration has stabilized [10][12]. 4. **Valuation Trends**: Security companies are trading at a 25% premium to software companies, consistent with historical trends. This premium is attributed to favorable long-term drivers such as increasing cybersecurity threats and solid unit economics [10][12]. 5. **CIO Survey Insights**: A survey indicated that **platform consolidation** is a top priority for CIOs, reflecting a strategic shift in security spending [6][35]. Company-Specific Insights 1. **CrowdStrike (CRWD)**: Upgraded to Buy with a projected 19% upside. The company is expected to benefit from its platform's quality and innovation, leading to increased wallet share [25][30]. 2. **Cloudflare (NET)**: Upgraded from Sell to Buy with a 28% upside. The company is anticipated to improve sales and marketing productivity, enhancing its position in the enterprise market [30][47]. 3. **Fortinet (FTNT)**: Maintained as Buy with a 20% upside. The company is expected to see a cyclical recovery, although initial guidance may pose risks [30]. 4. **Palo Alto Networks (PANW)**: Rated Buy with a 14% upside. The company is recognized for its strategic conversations in security, although growth may be limited in the near term [32]. 5. **Okta (OKTA)**: Rated Buy with a 34% upside. The company is expected to recover from past breaches and improve its cross-sell strategy [32]. 6. **Check Point (CHKP)**: Downgraded to Neutral with an 11% upside. The company is expected to face EPS growth pressure in 2025 [34]. 7. **Zscaler (ZS)**: Rated Neutral with a 4% upside. Competition in its core market may hinder growth [34]. Additional Important Insights - **GenAI Impact**: Generative AI is expected to play a role in product cycles, although traditional AI applications are viewed as more impactful. Companies are leveraging AI to enhance security operations and improve data management [37][40]. - **Firewall Demand**: There is optimism regarding firewall demand driven by increased data traffic, particularly as organizations invest in AI infrastructure [43][44]. - **Market Sentiment**: General optimism in the US market post-election is reflected in improved SMB optimism and a normalization of enterprise headcount growth, which may influence security budgets in 2025 [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections for the security industry and specific companies as discussed in the conference call.

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: China Semiconductors **Coverage**: Semicap, Analog, Foundry, Computing **Timeframe**: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook Key Points 1. 2024 Review * **Top Picks**: NAURA, AMEC, Hygon, SMIC, Silergy * **Outperformers**: NAURA (63% growth), AMEC (30% growth), Hygon (106% growth), SMIC (68%/80% growth), Silergy (Market-Perform upgraded in December) * **Misjudged**: Cambricon & Hua Hong rating changes * **Lessons Learned**: Consider both fundamentals and sentiment when making rating changes 2. 2025 Outlook * **Semicap**: * Geopolitical tension to boost domestic substitution * Demand strong, entity list impact priced in * Top picks: AMEC, NAURA, Piotech * **Analog**: * Silergy as a quality long-term investment target * Growth driven by China Auto * Short-term pressure due to weak China demand * **Foundry**: * Upcycle and share gain to boost confidence * Profitability pressure remains * SMIC preferred over Hua Hong * **Computing**: * Export control creates market for local chip vendors * China shifting to inferencing and smaller models * Hygon preferred over Cambricon 3. China WFE Industry * **Demand**: Expected to decline -19% YoY in 2025 due to strong pull forward in 2024 * **Domestic Share**: Expected to reach 28% in 2026 * **Self-sufficiency**: Expected to reach 36% by 2026 * **Local fabs**: Pushing for supply chain resiliency through co-development with local WFE suppliers 4. Key Companies * **NAURA**: * Largest domestic WFE platform * Positive top line projection of YoY +30% in 2025 * GPM expected to improve with higher share from WFE and better mix with advanced node equipment * **AMEC**: * Leader in dry etch, expanding into deposition * Key advanced foundry/memory progress to be major driver of 2025 onwards * Overall localization trend in advanced logic/memory inevitable * **Piotech**: * Rising star in CVD & hybrid bonding * Significant top line upside in 2025/26 * Shipped products up +160% YoY in 3Q24 * **Silergy**: * China's largest analog chip supplier * Leader in Power Analog segment * Expected to grow 26%+ CAGR for next few years * **SMIC**: * Aggressive investments on capacity expansion * Potential on Advanced Node Logic * EPS expected to rebound in 2025 * **Hua Hong**: * Matured node foundry * Potential re-rating as China's matured node foundry enters demand upcycle * ASP expected to increase in next few quarters 5. Risks * Global overcapacity in matured logic * ASP pressure on matured node foundries * Weak demand in certain segments * Technological challenges Conclusion The China semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by domestic substitution, technological advancements, and increased demand for computing and analog chips. However, there are also risks to consider, such as global overcapacity and technological challenges.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 02:23 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Update PMI Update: Stable Headline, Better Details Aggregate PMI held steady at a six-month high in December. Better new orders and new export orders suggest demand held up, although the outlook remains clouded by looming tariff hikes. Key Takeaways Key observations: Asia's PMI stabilising at six-month high: The aggregate Asia manufacturing PMI held firm at a six-month high of 51.5, with moderation in China, India, and ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 02 January 2025 Autos Parts Value Tracker Supplier Shares Underperformed in December Against Backdrop of Firming 4Q Production & Industry / Macro Uncertainty; Top Picks Include APTV, AXL, & BWA Shares of the average US-based auto parts supplier declined in price by -2.8% over the past one month, again underperforming the S&P 500's -1.0% decline over the same time, which brings the sector's 2024 YTD underperformance vs. the broader ma ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily focused on the **China Autos** industry, particularly the performance of **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** and **Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs)** in the market [2][5][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Wholesale and Retail Performance**: - In the first eleven months of 2024, wholesale vehicle volume increased to **24,432K units**, a **5% year-over-year (YoY)** growth from **23,220K units** in 2023 [11][12]. - NEV wholesale volume surged to **10,764K units**, marking a **37% YoY** increase, while ICEV wholesale volume dropped to **13,669K units**, reflecting an **11% YoY** decline [11][12]. - Retail sales also saw a **5% YoY** increase, reaching **20,253K units**, with NEVs accounting for **9,601K units** (up **41% YoY**) and ICEVs at **10,652K units** (down **15% YoY**) [11][12]. 2. **Export Trends**: - Exports rose to **4,515K units**, a **23% YoY** increase, with NEV exports at **1,099K units** (up **9% YoY**) and ICEV exports at **3,416K units** (up **29% YoY**) [11][12]. 3. **NEV Market Penetration**: - NEV penetration in wholesale reached **48%** in November 2024, indicating a strong market shift towards electric vehicles [13]. 4. **Retail Pricing Dynamics**: - Retail discounts and price cuts remained significant but stabilized in November, with steep discounts observed across various vehicle categories [15]. 5. **Battery Cell Pricing**: - Battery cell prices have stabilized in recent months, which could impact the cost structure of NEVs moving forward [17]. 6. **Channel Inventory Levels**: - Dealer inventory levels remained below seasonal averages in November, suggesting a tighter supply situation in the market [19]. Additional Important Insights - The performance of plug-in hybrids (including extended range electric vehicles) outperformed battery electric vehicles, indicating a consumer preference shift within the NEV segment [11][12]. - The data suggests a robust growth trajectory for NEVs, driven by both domestic demand and export opportunities, while ICEVs face declining sales trends [11][12][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the China Autos industry, particularly in the context of NEVs and market dynamics.

The Washington Post has published a comprehensive collection of obituaries for notable individuals who passed away in 2024. These obituaries provide a detailed account of the lives and achievements of these individuals, highlighting their contributions to various fields and their impact on society. **Some notable obituaries include**: * **Jimmy Carter (1924-2024)**: The 39th President of the United States, known for his commitment to human rights, peace, and environmental protection. His post-presidential work through the Carter Center has made a significant impact on global health, education, and conflict resolution. * **John M. Spratt Jr. (1942-2024)**: A long-serving Democratic congressman from South Carolina, known for his fiscal stewardship and advocacy for the environment. He played a key role in passing the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 and the Affordable Care Act of 2010. * **Shadi Hamid**: A prominent scholar and analyst of Islam and the Middle East, known for his work on political Islam and the Arab Spring. His expertise and insights have been widely sought by policymakers and the media. * **Shamsud-Din Jabbar**: The attacker who killed 14 people in a vehicular attack in New Orleans on January 1, 2025. His motivations and background are explored in this obituary, shedding light on the complexities of terrorism and radicalization. * **Agnes Keleti (1921-2024)**: The world's oldest living Olympic gold medalist and a survivor of the Holocaust. She was a pioneering gymnast and a symbol of resilience and hope. **The Washington Post's obituaries are a valuable resource for learning about the lives and legacies of these individuals. They provide a comprehensive and thoughtful look at the impact of their work and their contributions to society**.

Based on the provided text, here's an analysis of the key points: **U.S. News**: * **China's Economic Slowdown**: The article highlights the fading promise of China's market due to its slowing economy. U.S. companies are increasingly wary of doing business in China, leading to a shift in focus away from China as a land of opportunity. * **Productivity Growth**: The U.S. has seen a significant increase in productivity, driven by factors like the pandemic, immigration, and technological advancements. This growth has the potential to boost the economy and support an aging population. * **FBI Investigation**: The FBI is investigating the January 6 Capitol attack, including the discovery of pipe bombs near the Democratic and Republican national committees. The investigation is focused on identifying the suspect and determining whether they acted alone. * **Biden's Legacy**: The article compares President Biden's presidency to that of Jimmy Carter, noting their shared challenges of inflation and U.S. weakness abroad. Both presidents faced significant economic and foreign policy challenges during their terms. * **Net-Zero Banking Retreat**: Major banks are increasingly backing away from net-zero commitments, citing economic realities and legal challenges. This retreat suggests a shift in climate policy and investor sentiment. * **Judicial Independence**: Chief Justice John Roberts defended judicial independence in his annual year-end message, highlighting the threat of violence, intimidation, and calls to defy judicial decisions. **World News**: * **Revival of ISIS**: The article discusses the resurgence of ISIS in Syria, highlighting the group's ability to inspire attacks and its potential to cause further violence in the region and beyond. * **Al Jazeera Ban**: The Palestinian Authority has banned Al Jazeera in the occupied West Bank, citing the network's sympathetic coverage of Hamas. This ban is part of a broader conflict between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. * **Iranian Journalist Detention**: Italy has summoned Iran's ambassador to demand the release of an Italian journalist detained in Tehran. The situation is complex, with potential implications for Iran's relationship with Italy and the broader Middle East. * **Israeli Airstrikes**: Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 26 people in the Gaza Strip, raising tensions in the region. The article discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the efforts of mediators to broker a cease-fire. * **Sudan Orphanage Rescue**: The article tells the story of the rescue of orphans from an orphanage in Sudan during the country's civil war. The efforts of doctors, aid workers, and volunteers highlight the human cost of the conflict and the resilience of those affected. **Business & Finance**: * **TikTok Ban**: The article discusses the potential ban of TikTok in the U.S. and the impact it could have on creators, brands, and advertisers. Despite the looming ban, many are optimistic that the app will continue to operate. * **Meta's New Policy Head**: Meta Platforms is replacing its chief policy executive with a Republican, aligning the company with the incoming Trump administration. * **AI Robots**: The article explores the increasing use of AI robots in public spaces, highlighting their capabilities and potential impact on various industries. * **TGI Fridays Revival**: The former CEO of TGI Fridays is leading a bid to revitalize the struggling chain. * **BYD's Record Sales**: Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD has posted record sales, driven by government incentives and strong demand in the domestic market. **Technology**: * **Tesla's Challenges**: Tesla's vehicle deliveries have fallen for the first time in more than a decade, raising concerns about the company's future. The article discusses the challenges facing Tesla, including competition and the decline in demand for electric vehicles. * **Cybersecurity IPOs**: The article discusses the challenging prospects for cybersecurity company IPOs in 2025, due to a decline in venture capital funding and increased competition. **Opinion**: * **Device ID Election**: The article argues that the 2024 election was a "Device ID" election, highlighting the use of targeted advertising and data analytics in political campaigns. * **Corporate Transparency Act**: The article calls for the repeal of the Corporate Transparency Act, which would impose intrusive reporting requirements on small businesses. * **Net Zero**: The article argues that net-zero policies are becoming increasingly unfeasible and that 2025 could be the year they finally die. * **Terrorism**: The article discusses the threat of terrorism, highlighting the recent attack in New Orleans and the resurgence of ISIS in Syria. **Overall, the text provides a comprehensive overview of the key issues and events shaping the world in early 2025. It covers a wide range of topics, including economics, politics, technology, and social issues**.

Key Points Company and Industry Information 1. **Company Involved**: NewtekOne, Inc. (NASDAQ:NEWT) and Paltalk IPM. 2. **Event**: Mergers & Acquisitions Conference Call. 3. **Date and Time**: January 2, 2025, 4:15 PM ET. 4. **Participants**: - Barry Sloane - CEO and Chairman of NewtekOne. - Jason Katz - CEO and Chairman of Paltalk IPM. - Various analysts from UBS Financial Services, Piper Sandler, Raymond James, Maxim Group, Landenburg Thalmann & Company, B. Riley, and KBW. [1] Core Views and Arguments 1. **Divestiture of Newtek Technology Solutions**: NewtekOne is divesting Newtek Technology Solutions and merging it into Paltalk IPM. 2. **Management Representation**: Barry Sloane, CEO and Chairman of NewtekOne, and Jason Katz, CEO and Chairman of Paltalk IPM, are present to discuss the merger. 3. **Forward-Looking Statements**: The call includes forward-looking statements based on current beliefs and expectations, subject to significant risks and uncertainties. [4][5] Other Important Content 1. **Q&A Session**: The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. 2. **Recording**: The conference call is being recorded. [3][2]

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is experiencing a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. [doc id='51'] 2. **Sales Growth**: Weekly primary and secondary market sales have shown significant year-over-year growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.0% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 55% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Price Trends**: Property prices in Tier 1 cities have shown stable growth, with the Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index remaining relatively flat. [doc id='53'] 4. **Developers' Sales**: Developers' monthly sales have shown mixed trends, with some companies reporting strong growth while others experienced declines. [doc id='35'] **Market Segmentation** 1. **Tier 1 Cities**: Sales in Tier 1 cities have shown strong growth, with primary market sales increasing by 16.9% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 36% YoY. [doc id='51'] 2. **Tier 2 Cities**: Sales in Tier 2 cities have also shown significant growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.4% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 66% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Tier 3 Cities**: Sales in Tier 3 cities have shown moderate growth, with primary market sales increasing by 7.1% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 20% YoY. [doc id='51'] **Company-Specific Information** 1. **C&D International**: The company reported attributable sales of 124 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 16% and a MoM decline of 33%. [doc id='46'] 2. **China SCE**: The company reported attributable sales of 10 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 9%. [doc id='46'] 3. **CIFI**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 41% and a MoM decline of 21%. [doc id='46'] 4. **CMSK**: The company reported attributable sales of 189 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 3%. [doc id='46'] 5. **COLI**: The company reported attributable sales of 270 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 31% and a MoM increase of 287 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 6. **Country Garden**: The company reported attributable sales of 44 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 51% and a MoM decline of 30%. [doc id='46'] 7. **CR Land**: The company reported attributable sales of 229 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 7% and a MoM increase of 286 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 8. **Gemdale**: The company reported attributable sales of 63 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 53% and a MoM decline of 14%. [doc id='46'] 9. **Greentown**: The company reported attributable sales of 149 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 10% and a MoM decline of 24%. [doc id='46'] 10. **Jinmao**: The company reported attributable sales of 83 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 31% and a MoM decline of 132 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 11. **KWG**: The company reported attributable sales of 9 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 48% and a MoM decline of 24 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 12. **Logan**: The company reported attributable sales of 8 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 7% and a MoM decline of 23 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 13. **Longfor**: The company reported attributable sales of 93 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 19% and a MoM decline of 162 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 14. **Midea RE**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 21% and a MoM decline of 38 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 15. **Poly**: The company reported attributable sales of 308 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 23% and a MoM decline of 400 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 16. **Powerlong**: The company reported attributable sales of 12 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 13% and a MoM decline of 26 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 17. **Ronshine**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 1% and a MoM increase of 20 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 18. **Seazen**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 71 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 19. **Shimao**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 12% and a MoM increase of 40 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 20. **Sino-Ocean**: The company reported attributable sales of 48 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 37% and a MoM increase of 31 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 21. **Sunac**: The company reported attributable sales of 45 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 54% and a MoM decline of 79 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 22. **Vanke**: The company reported attributable sales of 223 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 34% and a MoM decline of 343 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 23. **Yuzhou**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 58% and a MoM decline of 17 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 24. **Zhenro**: The company reported attributable sales of 6 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 24% and a MoM decline of 14 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 25. **Zhongliang**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 33% and a MoM decline of 32 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 26. **Zhongnan**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 38 million RMB. [doc id='46'] **Conclusion** The real estate market is currently in a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. However, the market remains volatile, with mixed trends observed across different cities and companies. Developers' sales have shown mixed results, with some companies experiencing strong growth while others have faced challenges.