Centuri (NYSE:CTRI) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 25, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsChris Brown - President and CEOChris Ellinghaus - Managing DirectorGregory Izenstark - Chief Financial OfficerJoseph O'Dea - Managing DirectorManish Somaiya - Managing Director and Senior EquityNate Tetlow - Vice President of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsAvi Jaroslawicz - Director and Equity Research AnalystJustin Hauke - Senior Research AnalystSangita Jain - Senior Equity Research AnalystSherif El-S ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company reported a record $4.3 billion in new transactions, an increase of 87% compared to 2024, with a growing pipeline exceeding $6.5 billion by year-end [4][5][9] - Adjusted EPS grew by 10.2% in 2025, reaching $2.70 per share, supported by increased investment volumes and profitability [5][16] - Adjusted ROE rose to 13.4%, reflecting a 70 basis point increase from 2024, driven by higher yields and growth in fees from managed assets [17][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed over $3 billion in new investments excluding the $1.2 billion SunZia project, demonstrating strong underlying demand [7][8] - The investment volume retained on the balance sheet increased by approximately 140% year-over-year, totaling $3.6 billion in 2025 [8] - The portfolio yield improved to 8.8%, contributing to the overall earnings power of the managed assets, which grew by 18% to $16.1 billion [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewables pipeline is projected to exceed $230 billion, with renewables accounting for 99% of projected capacity additions in 2026 [10] - The demand for power and cost-effectiveness in asset classes have created an attractive investing environment, with PPA rates increasing over 40% in the past three years [9][10] - The company’s grid-connected business is benefiting from significant growth in renewables, particularly solar and storage [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a payout ratio below 50% by 2028, focusing on capital recycling to enhance growth and profitability [15][81] - The strategy includes expanding equity commitments in the CCH1 vehicle and enhancing capital efficiency through new funding sources [19][22] - The company is investing in talent and technology to support further scale and efficiency, with a focus on diverse asset classes [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving profitability objectives, with a three-year guidance extending to 2028, expecting adjusted EPS in the range of $3.50-$3.60 [14][25] - The operating environment remains favorable, with no significant negative or positive trends anticipated for 2026 [31][32] - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model despite challenges such as inflation and supply chain issues, maintaining a consistent growth trajectory [11][12] Other Important Information - The company achieved a record of 1.7 million metric tons in avoided CO emissions from new investments in 2025, contributing to a total of 10 million metric tons avoided to date [24] - The company has made significant investments in its platform, particularly in technology and talent, to position itself for future growth [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2028 and growth above 10% CAGR - Management indicated that pathways to exceed 10% CAGR include increased volume, better yields, and lower debt costs [28][29] Question: 2026 outlook - Management noted that while they do not provide specific guidance for 2026, they expect meaningful growth based on the current pipeline [31][32] Question: Change in guidance strategy - The switch to nominal EPS guidance allows for more precise adjustments in future quarters, reflecting increased confidence in growth [38][39] Question: Investment opportunities and pipeline context - Management confirmed no structural change in the business, with larger investment opportunities emerging but no specific projects like SunZia currently in the pipeline [41][42] Question: Impact of PPA renegotiations on earnings - Positive renegotiations of PPAs are expected to enhance long-term cash flows and potentially accelerate EPS growth beyond current guidance [71][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 4% year-over-year increase driven by higher gathering and compression volumes [5] - Free cash flow after dividends for Q4 was $85 million, contributing to a leverage reduction to 2.7x and approximately $48 million in share repurchases [5] - For the full year 2025, free cash flow after dividends reached a record $325 million, a 30% increase compared to 2024 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion adds over 400 undeveloped locations in the Marcellus Shale, enhancing Antero Midstream's competitive position [3] - The company expects 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026, driven by the integration of the acquired assets [4][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates generating over $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7] - The capital budget for 2026 is set between $190 million and $220 million, focusing on well connections, water capital, and compression asset integration [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero Midstream's strategy emphasizes capital-efficient organic growth and the integration of acquired assets to enhance free cash flow [3][8] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet with leverage in the low 3x range while executing a balanced return of capital program [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued EBITDA growth and capital efficiency, projecting high single-digit growth beyond 2027 [12] - The integration of the water system and the development program is expected to provide significant growth visibility [4] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) in 2025, indicating strong capital efficiency [5] - The acquisition is fully financed, allowing for value accretion to existing shareholders without the need for equity financing [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook post-acquisition - Management indicated that the 3 rig, 2 crew program will support continued growth beyond 2027, with expected throughput volume growth of about 200 million a day [12] Question: Growth plans for Antero Resources (AR) and implications for Antero Midstream (AM) - Management noted that AM's capital requirements remain minimal due to existing infrastructure, while AR is well-positioned to meet growing demand over the next 5-10 years [15][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 4% year-over-year increase driven by higher gathering and compression volumes [5] - Free cash flow after dividends for Q4 was $85 million, contributing to a leverage reduction to 2.7x and approximately $48 million in share repurchases [5] - For the full year 2025, free cash flow after dividends reached a record $325 million, a 30% increase compared to 2024 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion adds over 400 undeveloped locations, enhancing Antero Midstream's competitive position in the Marcellus Shale [3] - The company expects 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026 [4][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The capital budget for 2026 is set between $190 million and $220 million, focusing on well connections, water capital, and compression asset integration [6] - The forecast for 2026 includes adjusted EBITDA of over $1.2 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a just-in-time capital investment strategy that generates consistent free cash flow [3] - The integration of the acquired water system and investment in dry gas assets are expected to provide high visibility into growth [4] - The strategy includes a balanced return of capital program through debt reduction and share repurchases [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued growth beyond 2027, with mid- to high single-digit EBITDA growth expected [12] - The company is well-positioned to meet growing demand over the next 5-10 years due to its strategic location and infrastructure [16] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) in 2025 [5] - The acquisition is fully financed, allowing for value accretion to existing shareholders without equity financing [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook post-acquisition - Management indicated that the 3-rig, 2-rig program will support continued growth beyond 2027, with expected throughput volume growth of about 200 million a day [12] Question: Growth plans for Antero Resources (AR) and implications for Antero Midstream (AM) - Management noted that there is minimal additional capital required for AM due to existing infrastructure, and AR is well-positioned to meet growing demand with firm transport options [14][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of $18.3 million, or $0.13 per share, compared to a GAAP loss of $9.5 million, or $0.08 per share in Q3 2025 [22] - Book value per common share was $7.36 at December 31, 2025, slightly up from $7.35 at September 30, 2025 [22] - Economic return on book value was 2.6% for the quarter, including $0.04 from share repurchases and $0.18 per share common dividend [22] - Non-GAAP earnings available for distribution (EAD) increased from $0.01 in Q3 to $0.20 in Q4, exceeding the common dividend [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Sequoia platform locked $5.3 billion of loans in Q4 2025, a 5% increase from Q3 and up 130% from Q4 2024 [12] - Aspire locked a record $1.5 billion of loans during Q4 2025, a 20% sequential increase, with total 2025 lock volume exceeding $3 billion [16] - CoreVest closed out 2025 with full-year volumes up 13% versus 2024, with RTL representing nearly 40% of Q4 production [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company estimates that between $200 billion and $300 billion of jumbo mortgages could become refinanceable as mortgage rates hover just above 6% [8] - The company’s full-year 2025 jumbo market share was approximately 7%, significantly up from prior years [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting focus towards increasing capital to mortgage banking platforms, with over 80% of capital now invested in core operating activities, up from 57% in 2024 [6] - The company plans to leverage AI to enhance risk management, accelerate capital deployment, and improve operating leverage [10] - The company is winding down its legacy investment portfolio to free up capital for core activities [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for increased volume in 2026, driven by a favorable economic environment and housing affordability initiatives [10] - The company expects core operating performance to drive consolidated earnings above the common dividend in 2026, enabling earnings retention and reinvestment [11] Other Important Information - The company reported a 44% year-over-year reduction in operating costs per loan, attributed to technology enablement and operational efficiencies [20] - The company is focused on maintaining a flexible balance sheet and strong liquidity, with $256 million of unrestricted cash at quarter end [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of recent mortgage rate changes on business volume - Management reported January volume at $3.6 billion, indicating continued acceleration from Q4 [30][31] Question: Opportunities in the Aspire non-QM platform - Management highlighted strong momentum in non-QM products and expected growth in the non-QM market, estimating it to be $130 billion for 2025 [32][34] Question: Future of third-party capital providers - Management noted strong demand for production and ongoing discussions with capital partners to support growth [40][41] Question: Current margins in non-QM and jumbo channels - Management indicated targeting margins in non-QM similar to Sequoia, with expectations for improved execution through securitization [44][46] Question: Competitive landscape in non-QM - Management acknowledged increased competition but expressed confidence in their ability to grow market share [48][49] Question: CoreVest originations and margins - Management projected higher volumes in Q1 with consistent margins, focusing on smaller balance products [73][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported GAAP net income of $18.3 million, or $0.13 per share, compared to a GAAP loss of $9.5 million, or $0.08 per share in Q3 2025 [21] - Book value per common share was $7.36 at December 31, 2025, slightly up from $7.35 at September 30, 2025 [22] - Economic return on book value was 2.6% for the quarter, including $0.04 of accretion from share repurchases and a $0.18 per share common dividend [22] - Non-GAAP consolidated earnings available for distribution (EAD) increased from $0.01 in Q3 to $0.20 in Q4, exceeding the common dividend [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Sequoia platform locked $5.3 billion of loans in Q4 2025, a 5% increase from Q3 and up 130% from Q4 2024 [11] - Aspire locked a record $1.5 billion of loans during Q4 2025, a 20% sequential increase, contributing to a total of over $3 billion for the year [16] - CoreVest closed out 2025 with full-year volumes up 13% versus 2024, with nearly 40% of Q4 production coming from residential transition loans [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company estimates that between $200 billion and $300 billion of jumbo mortgages could become refinanceable as mortgage rates hover just above 6% [7] - The company’s full-year 2025 jumbo market share was approximately 7%, significantly up from prior years [12] - Institutional participation in housing has drawn renewed focus, with proposals intended to limit ownership of single-family homes by large institutional investors [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting towards increasing capital to mortgage banking platforms, with over 80% now invested in core operating activities at year-end 2025, up from 57% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to leverage AI to enhance risk management, accelerate capital deployment, and extract further gains in operating leverage [9] - The company is winding down its legacy investment portfolio to free up capital for redeployment into higher return mortgage banking platforms [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for volume growth in 2026, supported by a broader base of third-party capital partners and a simpler balance sheet [9] - The company expects core operating performance to drive consolidated earnings above the common dividend in 2026, enabling earnings retention and reinvestment [10] - Management noted that the refinance market could significantly expand volume expectations, particularly for the Sequoia business [15] Other Important Information - The company reported a 44% year-over-year reduction in operating costs per loan, attributed to technology enablement and operational efficiencies [19] - The legacy bridge portfolio's principal balance was reduced by nearly 40% in Q4, with 90-day plus delinquencies declining to $82 million, down over 65% from earlier in the year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of recent mortgage rate movements on business volume - Management reported January volume at $3.6 billion, indicating continued acceleration from Q4 [29] Question: Opportunities in the Aspire non-QM platform and potential GSE reform impacts - Management highlighted strong momentum in non-QM products and expected continued growth, with GSE reform unlikely to impact the non-QM market significantly [31][34] Question: Future of third-party capital providers - Management noted strong demand for production and ongoing discussions with capital partners to support growth in Aspire and Sequoia [39] Question: Current margins in the non-QM channel compared to jumbo - Management indicated targeting margins in the non-QM channel similar to Sequoia, with the potential for increased efficiency through securitization [45] Question: Competitive landscape in the non-QM market - Management acknowledged increased competition but expressed confidence in their ability to grow market share due to operational advantages [48] Question: CoreVest originations and first-quarter volume expectations - Management projected higher volumes in Q1, with consistent margins expected [72]

Core Insights - The latest dynamics in the U.S. upstream exploration sector present complex signals amid global energy market fluctuations, with a surprising increase of 5 active oil and gas rigs, bringing the total to 551 rigs, despite a 35 rig deficit compared to the same period last year [1][3] - The structural contradictions in energy supply and demand are expected to persist into 2026, highlighting a contrast between the slight increase in rig counts and a significant decline in production [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production has dropped by 481,000 barrels per day, averaging 13.215 million barrels per day, which is nearly 647,000 barrels per day lower than historical peak levels, indicating that even with increased drilling activity, completion speed has slowed due to a five-year low in fracturing fleet counts [1][3] Regional Performance - In the core energy region, the Permian Basin saw a slight decrease in rig counts to 241, reflecting a cautious approach even in the most cost-effective areas amid WTI pricing around $64 per barrel [2][4] - Despite a 30 rig increase in natural gas drilling compared to last year, the capital efficiency in the oil sector remains constrained by weak fracturing operations [2][4] - The ongoing battle between supply-side contraction and periodic price rebounds necessitates close monitoring of the production baseline of 13.215 million barrels per day and the potential recovery of the fracturing fleet from five-year lows to assess the sustainability of oil prices oscillating between $60 and $70 [2][4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue grew by 2.8% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, with rental revenue increasing by 4.6% to $3.6 billion, both setting fourth quarter records [4][5] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.9 billion, resulting in a margin of 45.2%, while adjusted EPS was reported at $11.09 [5][12] - Free cash flow generation was $2.2 billion, translating to a free cash flow margin of 14% [7][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Growth was observed across both Gen Rent and Specialty businesses, with Specialty showing broad-based growth [6] - Rental revenue increased by $159 million year-over-year, supported by growth from large projects and key verticals [13] - Ancillary and re-rent revenue grew by over 9%, contributing an additional $62 million [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The construction end market saw growth in both infrastructure and non-residential construction, while the industrial end market showed strength within power [6] - Demand for used equipment remained healthy, with $769 million of OEC sold in the fourth quarter at a 50% recovery rate [7][14] - The project pipeline is larger than ever, with new projects initiated across healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the partner of choice for customers, focusing on providing an unmatched experience through a one-stop shop of products and services [3] - Plans for 2026 include repurchasing $1.5 billion of shares and increasing the quarterly dividend by 10%, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [8][22] - The strategy emphasizes capital efficiency and organic growth, with a focus on expanding the Specialty footprint and leveraging geographic opportunities [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering another year of profitable growth in 2026, with total revenue growth expected to exceed 6% [9][19] - The demand construct for 2026 is anticipated to be similar to 2025, driven by large projects and dispersed geographic demand [9][56] - Management acknowledged the importance of profitability and margins, embedding cost actions to improve efficiency [9][66] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $2.4 billion of excess cash flow to shareholders in 2025, including $464 million via dividends and $1.9 billion through share repurchases [8][18] - The balance sheet remains strong, with net leverage of 1.9 times and total liquidity of over $3.3 billion [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the evolution stage of ancillary services? - Management indicated that it is difficult to characterize the evolution stage of ancillary services, emphasizing the goal of providing as many solutions for customers as possible [24][26] Question: Can you discuss the recent M&A activity and pipeline? - The pipeline for M&A is robust, with some chunky deals being considered, although recent activity included smaller acquisitions [27][30] Question: What is the growth trajectory for the matting business? - The matting business experienced a pushout of a significant project, but overall growth remains strong, with a 30% increase on a pro forma basis [34][36] Question: How is fleet productivity expected to change in 2026? - Fleet productivity is expected to remain positive, with management focusing on mitigating headwinds from transportation costs and maintaining high levels of time utilization [45][70] Question: What is the outlook for mega projects? - The outlook for mega projects is very healthy, with multiple drivers expected to sustain growth in this area [62][63] Question: How will cost actions impact margins? - Cost actions are expected to progress throughout the year, with benefits anticipated as activity increases, particularly in peak quarters [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue grew by 2.8% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, with rental revenue increasing by 4.6% to $3.6 billion, both setting fourth quarter records [4][11] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.9 billion, resulting in a margin of 45.2%, with adjusted EPS at $11.09 [4][14] - Free cash flow generation was $2.2 billion, translating to a free cash flow margin of 14% [6][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Growth was observed across both Gen Rent and Specialty businesses, with Specialty showing healthy and broad-based growth [5] - Rental revenue increased by $159 million year-over-year, supported by growth from large projects and key verticals [11] - Ancillary and re-rent revenue grew by over 9%, adding a combined $62 million [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The construction end market saw growth across both infrastructure and non-residential construction, while the industrial end market showed strength within power [5] - Data centers and power were significant drivers of growth, with a larger project pipeline than ever [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the partner of choice for customers, focusing on providing an unmatched experience through a one-stop shop of products and services [3] - Plans for 2026 include total revenue growth ex used of over 6%, supported by customer sentiment indicators and solid backlogs [8] - The company intends to repurchase $1.5 billion of shares in 2026 and increase its quarterly dividend by 10% [7][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand construct for 2026 being similar to 2025, driven by large projects and dispersed geographic demand [8][10] - The company is aware of the importance of profitability and margins, embedding cost actions to improve efficiency [8][17] - Management emphasized a culture of continuous improvement and commitment to operational excellence [9] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $2.4 billion of excess cash flow to shareholders in 2025 through share buybacks and dividends [7][16] - The used market is expected to normalize, with healthy demand anticipated in 2026 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: On ancillary services, what inning are you in regarding evolution? - Management indicated that it is hard to characterize the exact stage but emphasized the goal of providing as many solutions for customers as possible [21][23] Question: Can you discuss the M&A pipeline and recent activity? - The pipeline is robust with some chunky deals, and recent smaller acquisitions were made to fill out the product offering [24][26] Question: Can you elaborate on the growth trajectory for the matting business? - The matting business was affected by a project pushout but showed strong growth overall, with a 30% increase on a pro forma basis [30][33] Question: What drove the year-over-year improvement in fleet productivity? - Fleet productivity improved due to a combination of rate and time, with mix being a significant factor due to matting choppiness [41][42] Question: What actions are being taken to offset cost dynamics? - Management is focused on mitigating repositioning costs and implementing hard cost actions to protect margins [61][62] Question: How does the company view the local market demand for 2026? - Management expects local market demand to remain flattish, with growth primarily driven by large projects [54][94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EPS for 2025 was $3.81, up 62% year-over-year [7] - Core ROTCE increased to 10.4%, up more than 300 basis points compared to 2024 [7] - Adjusted net revenue reached $8.5 billion, a 3% increase year-over-year, and a 6% increase when excluding the sale of the card business [11] - CET1 ended the year at 10.2%, with fully phased-in CET1 at 8.3%, up 120 basis points in 2025 [11][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail auto and corporate finance loans grew by 5% in 2025, driven by strong momentum in core franchises [13] - Dealer Financial Services originated $43.7 billion in consumer loans, an 11% increase year-over-year [16] - Written premiums in insurance exceeded $1.5 billion, marking a record for Ally [18] - Corporate finance delivered a 28% ROE with strong year-over-year growth in the loan portfolio [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail deposit balances reached $144 billion, reinforcing Ally's position as the largest all-digital direct bank in the U.S. [19] - The customer base grew to 3.5 million, marking the 17th consecutive year of customer growth [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company undertook a strategic refresh in 2025, focusing on investing in areas with clear competitive advantages [6] - A $2 billion open-ended share repurchase authorization was announced, indicating confidence in future growth [14] - The focus remains on organic growth while also considering share repurchases as a capital deployment option [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, emphasizing the importance of bridging strategy to execution [89] - The company is focused on building strong volumes with appropriate margins in the auto franchise and continuing momentum in corporate finance [90] - Management remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the labor market and used vehicle prices [95][101] Other Important Information - The company executed two credit risk transfer transactions totaling $10 billion in notional retail auto loans [12] - Adjusted non-interest expense was approximately flat year-over-year, with controllable expenses down 1% [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on NIM progression - Management confirmed expectations for NIM to be down in Q1 but expressed confidence in a strong exit trajectory for the year [70][72] Question: Retail auto coverage ratio - Management indicated that reserve releases are not factored into return expectations and are balancing credit quality against macroeconomic uncertainties [78][80] Question: Contextualizing 2026 - Management expressed optimism for 2026, focusing on strong fundamentals and disciplined expense management while being cautious about macroeconomic risks [89][95] Question: Credit performance and delinquencies - Management acknowledged that while delinquencies are improving, macroeconomic factors like unemployment could weigh on future performance [102][104]