28 February 2025 | 8:54AM CST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US ...

19 February 2025 | 9:27PM HKT China Battery Cathode LFP cyclical recovery in sight; initiate on Yuneng at Buy Following our China battery 2025 outlook, we continue to highlight cyclical recovery opportunities in China's LFP (Lithium ferrous phosphate) cathode sector by forecasting utilization to reach 72%/86% in 2025-2026E, from 71% in 2024E. On the demand side, we forecast a 2024-2026E LFP cathode demand CAGR of 34% driven by robust BESS demand and more constructive LFP penetration in the NEV battery marke ...

1 March 2025 | 6:05PM HKT China Battery and Components Strong March shipments seen (+15% mom); strengthens our cyclical recovery view. Buy CATL (on CL), Yuneng March battery shipments seen beating expectations. According to ICCSino, March 2025 will likely be a surprisingly strong month for China battery shipments, with a mom increase of +15% (Exhibit 1, vs. consensus of single digit). Given Jan-Feb are usually low seasons for battery shipments as a result of Chinese new year holidays, we view the potential ...

February 28, 2025 10:11 AM GMT M Update China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Likely a very "Humanoid" earnings season In the past quarter, 40% of the auto stocks we cover mentioned increasing involvement in humanoid business. As we head towards peak earnings, investors may focus increasingly on the remaining 60% of companies, who, although they have said nothing about humanoids, may soon do so. In addition to the preview note we published on major EV players, here are some quick thoughts about more ...

ASML Holding NV - Key Takeaways from Investor Roadshow Industry Overview - **Company**: ASML Holding NV - **Industry**: European Semiconductors - **Date of Roadshow**: February 27, 2025 - **Location**: Edinburgh Core Points and Arguments 1. **Customer Base Dynamics**: - Increased reliance on TSMC due to challenges faced by other foundry customers. ASML acknowledges that the semiconductor ecosystem becomes more capital efficient with fewer customers operating at scale [3][8] - TSMC's global footprint is expanding with fabs in Arizona, Japan, and joint ventures in Europe, which may lead to more concentrated orders and lumpy bookings for ASML [3][8] - ASML intends to maintain pricing for its tools, focusing on sharing the enhanced value of its products while reducing lithography costs per wafer [3][8] 2. **Chip Architecture Changes**: - Transition to Gate All Around (GAA) architecture is expected to facilitate smaller feature sizes, although initial EUV layer counts will not increase [4][9] - The 6F² architecture for DRAM is projected to increase EUV layer counts from 4-5 layers to 10 layers by the end of the decade, indicating ongoing demand for ASML's technology [9][10] 3. **China Market Outlook**: - Revenue from China is expected to normalize to backlog levels, around the low 20% range, following a significant uplift in 2023 and 2024 [10][8] - High utilization rates at larger Chinese customers suggest ongoing demand, although there is less clarity regarding smaller customers [10][8] - ASML is cautious about local lithography players but does not see an immediate threat [10][8] 4. **Technological Developments**: - Hybrid bonding and potential moves to CFET (from GAA) are seen as opportunities for ASML, with expectations of initial lithography layer plateaus before increases [11][10] - Chiplets (3DIC) are viewed as complementary to existing technologies, allowing for continued scaling on the front end while advancing back-end packaging [11][10] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Market Capitalization**: €277.98 billion - **Revenue Projections**: - 2023: €27.56 billion - 2024e: €28.26 billion - 2025e: €33.01 billion - 2026e: €35.59 billion [6][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: €19.90 - 2024e: €19.24 - 2025e: €25.71 - 2026e: €28.24 [6][8] - **Price Target**: €680.00 based on a mid-cycle P/E multiple of approximately 24x [12][8] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Increased logic and HBM spending, expanding servicing margins, and tech sovereignty programs [14][8] - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker foundry spending, potential slowdowns in DRAM, and inflationary pressures impacting orders [14][8] Additional Insights - ASML's focus on maintaining pricing and enhancing product value is crucial in a competitive landscape, particularly with the evolving dynamics of its customer base and technological advancements [3][8] - The normalization of revenue from China and the strategic emphasis on local solutions highlight the importance of adapting to regional market conditions [10][8]

February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT Alternative Asset Mgrs | North America Investor Feedback On Latest Pullback Shares of alts asset mgrs are down -11% over the past 30-days on the back of disappointing 4Q earnings results, slower capital markets activity YTD and macro concerns. We share investor feedback & concerns around capital markets rebound, macro/ interest rates risks, and most & least preferred names. Key Takeaways: | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | February 28, 2025 05:25 AM GMT | | | | Alt ...

28 February 2025 | 1:53AM PST Anna Wu +1(415)249-7235 | anna.wu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alex Lakritz +1(415)249-7072 | alex.lakritz@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | | Mortgage | Credit | Personal | Auto | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Card | Loan | | | Total outstanding ($ in bn) | $12,436 | $1,142 | $148 | $1,675 | | % y/y change | 3.1% | 4.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% | | % m/m change | 1.1% | (0.1%) | 0.0% | 0.4% | | Monthly originations ($ in bn) | $126 | $40 | $10 | $63 | | % y/y change | 29.2% | (6 ...

4Q beat with Brukinsa surpassing Calquence, FY25 guided revenue US$4.9-5.3bn: 4Q product sales of US$1.1bn (+77% y/y, +13% q/q, vs. GSe's US$1bn) were higher, mainly driven by strong Brukinsa sales in ex-China markets: 1) US sales rebounded (US$616mn, +22% q/q, vs. GSe US$552mn or VA Consensus Data US$536mn) after a slower 3Q, which was partially bolstered by US$30mn of early channel buy-in ahead of new year, 2) EU and rest-of-world (US$143mn, +20% q/q, vs. GSe US$136mn) continue to see strong ramp-up acros ...

Summary of Key Points from the Agency MBS Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market and related investment products, including AAA Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and Agency CMO floaters. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Trends** - Mortgages have remained resilient amid recent market volatility, with production coupon OAS tightening to 30 basis points, aligning with the fair value target of 25 to 35 basis points [10][12][13]. - Large funds increased their MBS overweights by 0.3% to 12.5% in January, while underweights in Treasuries rose by 1.1% to 20.1% [3]. 2. **Investment Preferences** - Preference for 6.0% and 6.5% Agency floaters is reiterated due to their attractive pricing and excess returns across various rate scenarios [17][18][25]. - AAA CLOs have tightened to 117 basis points, nearing historic tights, while Agency CMO floaters are at historic wides, indicating a divergence in risk and return profiles [26][27][28]. 3. **Issuance and Demand Projections** - Projected net issuance for Agency MBS in 2025 is $225 billion, with gross issuance expected to reach $1.1 trillion [25]. - Demand is anticipated from banks ($100 billion), money managers ($150-200 billion), and foreign investors ($100 billion) [25]. 4. **Refinance and Prepayment Trends** - The Fannie Mae RALI Index reported a 0.5% week-over-week increase in refinance applications, with a 50.9% year-over-year rise [24]. - Freddie Mac noted a 9 basis point drop in 30-year fixed rates, averaging 6.76% [24]. 5. **Convexity and Hedging Needs** - Convexity hedging needs have increased, with a model suggesting that investors would need to shed/add $44-47 billion of 10-year Treasury equivalents if rates move by 50 basis points [13][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Comparative Analysis of Investment Products** - Agency floaters are viewed as more attractive than AAA CLOs from a historical perspective, despite the latter's minimal credit risk [33]. - The discount margins on new issue Agency CMO floaters have widened since 2021, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [28]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Expectations** - A poll indicated that approximately 65% of investors expect tighter spreads over the next month, reflecting a bullish sentiment [10]. - The Fed Funds futures market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a lower cap risk for floaters [47]. 3. **Risks Associated with Floating Rate Investments** - Agency CMO floaters face cap risk, which can affect their pricing and returns, while AAA CLOs are subject to call and prepayment risks [44][51]. 4. **Performance Metrics** - Performance was mixed, with belly coupons outperforming while wings underperformed, highlighting the need for careful selection within the coupon stack [18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends within the Agency MBS market as discussed in the report, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

28 February 2025 | 4:42PM CST Appotronics Corporation Ltd. (688007.SS): Data update post 2024 prelim results Appotronics reported 2024 prelim results, in-line with its previous announcement. Total revenue was Rmb2,418mn in 2024, growing by 9% yoy. Net profits was Rmb29mn, declining by 72% yoy, slightly lower than the mid-point of Rmb25mn-35mn in previous announcement. We fine-tune 2025E-26E earnings forecasts by -4% to factor in the latest prelim results. Our 12-month target price remains Rmb11, which is ba ...