Technology - Semiconductors Jay Kwon AC J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 06 February 2025 Memory Market Update Quantifying DeepSeek's impact to the Memory Market; Focus on AI ecosystem and edge-AI upside DeepSeek's R1 model release has spurred investor concerns on a faster decline in the training cost curve leading to datacenter AI hardware demand. The memory sector's18-month growth cycle was largely pinned by rising compute demand (HBM) for high-end training GPU - the sector's average share pri ...

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Feb 2025 00:00:00 ET│ 43 pages Global Consumer Citi's World of Staples – The data you need on performance, valuation and earnings momentum for global consumer staples CITI'S TAKE Global Consumer Staples under-performed the wider market by -1% last month. European Staples were +3%, while US Staples were +2%. Tobacco and Food Retail led the group (+6% and +5% respectively), Beverages remained challenging across regions falling -1% in the US and Europe. European Beverages & Tobacco: Smal ...

February 5, 2025 06:22 AM GMT Multipolar World Tariffs and Trade Protectionism: Our 'One-Stop-Shop' Playbook Given the developing news flow around tariffs, we have created a consolidated, global playbook for investors that provides analyses, and stock assessments across sectors. Key Takeaways Over the weekend, President Trump and his administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (see fact sheet here). President Trump stated that until the crisis/extraordinary threat is alleviated, ...

February 5, 2025 03:39 PM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific Our Thoughts on a Potential Probe into iOS Channel Fee in China Bloomberg news reported a potential probe into iOS channel fee in China. We think this could benefit Tencent and NetEase if it follows the outcome in the EU – a 13ppt reduction in channel fee and allowing third-party marketplace and in-app payments. What happened: Bloomberg reported that China is considering a probe into iOS App Store practices – 30% channel fee and barring third-party ...

5 February 2025 U.S. Autos & Auto Parts US Autos: Tariffs are terrible - Did the market get it right? Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com Christopher Gray +1 917 344 8308 christopher.gray@bernsteinsg.com Joseph Han +1 917 344 8571 joseph.han@bernsteinsg.com On Monday, auto stocks reacted to the news President Trump was adding 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada and traded down by up to 8%. Later on Monday, President Trump announced a 30-day delay of the tariffs until March 4th, and on T ...

February 5, 2025 12:59 PM GMT Semiconductor Production Equipment | Japan Emergence of Flash Memory for AI Calculation and Implications for Japan's SPE Industry Floadia (unlisted) is developing inferential AI devices using flash memory. The charge of the memory cell can be adjusted across 128 stages. Accumulation is performed by the flow of word-line current through the cell, with multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations achieved through accumulation via the bit lines. We spotlight the development as one potenti ...

Action | 05 Feb 2025 08:00:00 ET │ 13 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Preview – Investor Focus Shifts to Earnings & GTC in March CITI'S TAKE NVDA reports Jan-Q after the market close on 2/26. We model in-line Jan/Apr-Q and believe expectations are for ~$38B/$42.5B sales for the Jan/Apr-Qs given supply chain indications for the Blackwell to ramp more meaningfully mid this year with some mix shift between GB200/300. We believe NVDA stock is approaching valuation support levels trading at mid 20's P/E & 25% discoun ...

ab 5 February 2025 Global Research Global Electric Vehicle Battery Makers Monthly Recharge: 2025 Outlook Global battery demand to rise by 25% in 2025 We forecast 2025 global EV (BEV + PHEV) sales to rise to 22% y/y to 21mn units and this represents 24% penetration. In 2030E we estimate global EV share of 49% (China 84% / ex-China 37%). Global battery demand (EV+ESS) should increase 25% y/y with a 21% CAGR to 2030. We raise 2030E global LFP share 9ppts to 67%. This is largely driven by China market share (m/ ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Oil & Gas Equities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of Chinese tariffs on oil and gas imports from the US, specifically focusing on LNG and crude oil tariffs announced on February 4, 2025, which are 15% and 10% respectively [2][3]. Key Points Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs are considered mild compared to previous retaliatory tariffs from 2018-2020, which peaked at 25% on LNG and 5% on crude oil [2]. - In 2024, US LNG and crude oil imports accounted for only 5% (4 million tonnes) and 2% (10 million tonnes) of China's total imports, indicating minimal earnings impact on the oil and gas sector [2][3]. - Long-term contracts with US energy firms allow for rerouting supplies through alternative sources, further mitigating risks [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **PetroChina**: - Imported 1.2 million tonnes of LNG from the US under long-term contracts, representing about 10% of its total LNG imports. The estimated impact on 2025 earnings is near zero [3]. - **Sinopec**: - Expected to receive up to 4 million tonnes of LNG from the US if the Plaquemines LNG Facility starts operations in 2025. The worst-case scenario estimates a 3% impact on 2025 earnings due to the additional tariff [3]. - **Downstream Gas Utilities**: - Companies like ENN and China Gas are expected to face even less impact as they do not have direct long-term contracts for LNG imports from the US in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - **PetroChina**: - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at CNY 2,898,763 million, with a net profit of CNY 169,782 million [20]. - Target price for H-shares is set at HKD 7.60, implying a 26.5% upside from the current price [19]. - **ENN Energy**: - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 113,858 million in 2023 to CNY 139,187 million in 2026, with a target price of HKD 80.00, indicating a 56.6% upside [34]. - **Sinopec**: - Revenue is expected to decline slightly, with a target price of HKD 4.60 for H-shares, reflecting a 7.2% upside [19]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks for PetroChina include overseas asset impairments, lower-than-expected oil and gas prices, and changes in tax/energy policies [19]. - For ENN Energy, risks include lower industrial gas demand and slower-than-expected growth in the integrated energy business [34]. - Sinopec faces risks from lower refining margins and potential LNG import losses [19]. Additional Insights - The strength and mix of volume at risk from the tariffs are viewed as minimal, suggesting that Chinese oil and gas companies should not be overly concerned [7]. - The overall market for fuel imports remains robust, with the impact of tariffs being contained [7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections from the conference call regarding the Chinese oil and gas sector, particularly in light of the recent tariff announcements.

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China Film Industry Equities 2025 CNY box office hits a new high 2025 CNY box office hits a new high. Box office revenue rose to RMB9,510m during the 2025 Chinese New Year (CNY), up 19% from the 2024 CNY holiday and setting a new CNY box office record. This also beats our expectations. The number of attendances rose 15% y-o-y to 187 million, with average price up 3% y-o-y to RMB50.8. Films released during the holiday have earned good reputation thanks to their overall ...