Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is experiencing a resurgence, with strong performance in equity trading and a robust deal pipeline, positioning it for a potentially record-breaking year for IPOs [1][2] - CEO David Solomon has successfully restored the bank's reputation, overcoming previous internal crises and positioning Goldman as a leader in the industry once again [2][7] Market Outlook - Solomon predicts a favorable environment for M&A and capital markets activity in 2026, suggesting that levels from 2021 will be surpassed [3] - Competition among banks is intensifying, with other firms also vying for lucrative deals [3][7] Strategic Developments - Solomon's vision for Goldman, initiated during a 2020 investor day, focuses on "digitization" and "consumerization," although the consumer banking venture, Marcus, faced challenges [8][9] - Despite setbacks in consumer banking, Goldman has successfully merged its asset and wealth management businesses, achieving a record $3.6 trillion in assets under supervision [11] Organizational Changes - The establishment of the Capital Solutions Group aims to enhance advisory and risk-management capabilities for corporate clients amid rising liquidity demands [12] - Internal tensions and management challenges have been addressed, with a significant number of job applications indicating continued interest in the firm [15][16] Future Initiatives - Goldman is investing heavily in technology and AI, with a $6 billion tech budget aimed at improving operational efficiency and fostering growth [18][19] - The introduction of One Goldman Sachs 3.0 represents an AI-driven overhaul intended to unify business lines and enhance product cross-selling [18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The market has become disenchanted with Disney, as the stock is approximately 43% below its peak in 2021, despite improvements in various business segments under CEO Bob Iger's leadership [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Disney's stock has seen a significant decline, trading around $114, which is a 24% increase since Iger's second term began, but it lags behind the S&P 500's 75% gain during the same period [3] - The company's Entertainment division is facing challenges, with linear operating income falling 21% year over year in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decline in traditional TV viewership [13] - The streaming segment has shown growth, with operating income up 39% year over year in the fourth quarter, but concerns remain about its ability to offset losses from traditional TV [14] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Disney's stock performance is under pressure compared to competitors, with Netflix shares up nearly 206% and Warner Bros. Discovery up 165% since Iger's return, while Comcast's shares have declined about 12% [9] - The company is navigating a complex media environment, with no direct peers, making its relative valuation the lowest it has been in over 40 years [6] Group 3: Business Segments - The Experiences division, which includes theme parks and cruise ships, has become a major profit driver, but attendance decreased by 1% in 2025, raising questions about pricing power [17][18] - The Sports segment, while the smallest by revenue, is modernizing with a new app and direct-to-consumer ambitions, but faces rising costs, including a 73% increase in NBA rights [20][21] Group 4: Leadership and Future Outlook - Analysts are looking for evidence of steady earnings growth to improve stock performance, which is critical for retaining top executives and could complicate the next CEO's role [22] - Investors are hoping for stable leadership rather than drastic changes as Iger approaches the end of his tenure, which may limit his ability to implement significant changes [24]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's investment in Saks Global has turned problematic, with the e-commerce giant declaring its stake "presumptively worthless" and opposing Saks' bankruptcy financing plans [1][2]. Investment Details - Amazon invested $475 million in preferred equity in Saks Global in December 2024, coinciding with its acquisition of Neiman Marcus Group for $2.7 billion [1][3]. - The investment was contingent upon Saks entering a commercial agreement to sell products on Amazon's platform, which included a guaranteed payment of at least $900 million over eight years [4]. Financial Performance and Bankruptcy - Saks Global has failed to meet its budgets, incurred hundreds of millions in losses, and accumulated significant unpaid invoices to retail partners, leading to its Chapter 11 filing with a $1.75 billion financing package [2][3]. - Amazon's legal filings argue that the bankruptcy plan would burden Saks with additional debt, harming both Amazon and other creditors by misusing the value of Saks' flagship entities [5]. Legal Proceedings - Amazon has expressed a desire for Saks to address its concerns but has indicated it may pursue more severe actions, such as requesting the appointment of an examiner or trustee [3]. - A federal judge has granted Saks approval to access an initial round of its financing despite Amazon's objections [6].

Core Viewpoint - Paramount's legal efforts to compel Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) to disclose the valuation of its cable networks have been unsuccessful, impacting its acquisition strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - A Delaware judge ruled against Paramount's motion for expedited discovery, stating that Paramount did not demonstrate it would suffer irreparable harm if the request was not granted [2]. - WBD's legal team argued that there was no emergency requiring the immediate disclosure of its cable assets' valuation, and that Paramount's deadline for shareholders was arbitrary [9][10]. Group 2: Acquisition Attempts - Paramount has made eight offers to acquire WBD, all of which have been rejected in favor of a deal with Netflix [6]. - Paramount's all-cash offer of $30 per share is considered superior to Netflix's cash-and-stock bid of $27.75 per share for WBD's studio and HBO assets [6]. Group 3: Shareholder Implications - The valuation of WBD's cable networks is crucial for shareholders to make informed decisions regarding the competing bids from Paramount and Netflix [7][8]. - Paramount's legal representatives emphasized that WBD shareholders are being harmed by the lack of information regarding the valuation of the cable networks [8].

Core Insights - BlackRock has become a significant player in the private credit market, particularly after acquiring HPS at the end of 2024, and is actively fundraising for private markets [1] - The private credit sector has experienced rapid growth, attracting over $220 billion in 2025, but recent high-profile defaults have raised concerns about potential hidden risks [2] - BlackRock's CFO noted that the firm deployed $25 billion into private-market investments in 2025, indicating stable credit conditions despite rising default rates [3] Private Credit Market Overview - Private credit default rates increased to 5.7% at the end of November, up from 5.2% the previous month, with 13 default events recorded in November, more than double the average [4] - BlackRock's portfolios are considered insulated due to a focus on lending to companies with sufficient earnings, with loans in their closed-end investment company, HLEND, made to firms averaging $250 million in annual earnings [4] - Smaller companies with annual earnings below $50 million that took loans at peak valuations are expected to face challenges [5] BlackRock's Position - BlackRock ended the year with over $145 billion in private credit assets and maintains a positive outlook on the structural pipeline for private credit fundraising and deployment [5]

Core Insights - BlackRock has raised nearly $700 billion in net cash, bringing its total assets under management to $14 trillion, with a record $181 billion in net new money from its iShares ETF franchise in Q4 2025 [1][2] Fundraising Strategy - The company has outlined an "ambitious 2026 fundraising plan" focusing on private markets, target-date funds, active ETFs, and international retirement savers [2] - The goal for new private market assets is set at $400 billion by 2030, with significant interest from insurance companies [5] Private Market Focus - 2026 will mark the first full year of BlackRock's acquisitions of private-credit player HPS, infrastructure investor GIP, and private-market-data provider Preqin [3] - The firm plans to launch its first target-date fund with private market exposure later this year, pending regulatory approval for private assets in 401(k) plans [6] Sales and Distribution - BlackRock's sales and distribution team, described as the largest in the industry, is actively promoting HPS products to financial advisors at major wirehouses [7] - The company sees growth opportunities in international markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [7][8] Investment Products - BlackRock continues to expand beyond fixed-income products, with significant growth in bond investment products, including active ETFs [9] - In 2025, fixed-income ETFs attracted $159 billion in net new money, nearly matching core equity offerings [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends investing in emerging market equities over the next one to five years, indicating they offer the highest expected returns compared to US stocks and other markets [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Equities - Emerging market equities are projected to have an expected base case return of 8%, with a 55% probability assigned to this outcome [2]. - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while a 25% probability is assigned to a negative mid-teens return [2]. - The volatility in the base case for emerging markets is noted to be the greatest among all markets [2]. Group 2: US Stocks - US stocks, represented by the S&P 500, are forecasted to grow by 7% over the next 12 months and average 6% returns over the next five years [3]. - The report suggests that despite historically high valuations, US stock prices are expected to remain elevated due to declining volatility in the US economy, which supports a more reliable stream of corporate earnings [4]. Group 3: Other Markets - UK stocks and the MSCI All-Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [3]. - The forecasts are based on considerations of earnings growth, dividend yields, and expected changes in valuations [3]. Group 4: Investment Products - Funds that provide exposure to the expected top-performing trades include the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [4].

Core Insights - Nvidia is enhancing its leadership and technical teams, reflecting its growing prominence and wealth in the AI chip market [1][3] Leadership Changes - Alison Wagonfeld has been appointed as Nvidia's first chief marketing officer, previously serving at Google Cloud [2][16] - Kristin Major joined as senior vice president of human resources, bringing over 13 years of experience from Hewlett Packard Enterprise [8] - Jiantao Jiao, a former CEO and cofounder of Nexusflow AI, is now a director of research at Nvidia, focusing on AI post-training and infrastructure [10] - Mark Weatherford has taken on the role of head of cybersecurity policy and strategic engagement, with a background in public and private sector cybersecurity [11] - Krysta Svore, previously at Microsoft, is now vice president of applied research in quantum computing at Nvidia [13] - Danny Auble, after Nvidia's acquisition of his startup SchedMD, serves as senior director of system software [14] - Jonathan Ross and Sunny Madra, founders of Groq, joined Nvidia following a significant licensing deal [15] Acquisitions and Talent Strategy - Nvidia has utilized its balance sheet to acquire talent through startup deals, enhancing its software capabilities and market engagement [2][3] - The company completed a $900 million acqui-hire of Enfabrica, which specializes in GPU clustering for AI workloads [12] Departures - Key leaders have departed Nvidia, including Dieter Fox, who left for Ai2, and Minwoo Park, who joined Hyundai [17][19] - The company also experienced the loss of board members Ellen Ochoa and Rob Burgess in 2025 [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has implemented a new 25% tariff on certain high-end computing chips, specifically targeting hardware essential to the AI sector while providing exemptions to promote domestic tech manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff specifically applies to "certain advanced computing chips," including Nvidia's H200 processor and AMD's MI325X, while excluding chips that support the US technology supply chain [2]. - The proclamation also encompasses imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivative products from any country [2]. Group 2: Future Implications - The administration indicated that this move could be a preliminary step, with potential future expansions of tariffs to a broader range of semiconductors and related products [7]. - National security concerns were cited as a rationale for the tariffs, invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows for trade restrictions based on security risks [7]. Group 3: Strategic Alignment - The tariff aligns with the broader agenda of reshoring advanced manufacturing to maintain a competitive edge in the AI race, with Nvidia being a focal point due to its significant role in powering data centers for AI services [8]. - Previous statements from Trump suggested that Nvidia would be permitted to sell certain advanced chips to China, provided that the US government receives 25% of the proceeds [8].

"You get what you measure" is one of my favorite concepts in modern business. It means people and organizations tend to focus their behavior on whatever metrics get tracked and rewarded. This even applies to tech billionaires.This week, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will make its FSD service subscription-only and remove the option to buy it outright. On social media, Elon stans theorized and argued with Elon-haters over the reason for this change. As usual, the debate was devoid of nuance. Fans took this as an ...