Core Insights - The end of the government shutdown is a significant relief for small businesses, allowing them to resume operations and cash flow [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses are experiencing a resurgence as government payments resume, particularly benefiting defense contractors and tech suppliers [3]. - FS Credit Opportunities (FSCO), a small business lender, has a 3.7% stake in TCFIII Owl Finance, which is poised to benefit from the unlocking of contracts [4]. - FSCO also lends to Penn Foster, an online education platform, which can now restart funding and enrollments after federal job grants were frozen during the shutdown [5]. Group 2: Performance of FSCO - FSCO's net asset value (NAV) has increased by 1.7% in 2025 despite the disruptions caused by the shutdown [7]. - FSCO has maintained its monthly dividend payments, increasing from 6 cents to 6.8 cents per share, yielding 12.5% annually [8]. - The current trading price of FSCO is at a 10% discount to its NAV, presenting a potential opportunity for contrarian investors [10][11].

Core Insights - Royal Caribbean (RCL) shares have decreased by 16.1% over 21 trading days, raising concerns about revenue shortfalls and cautious sales forecasts amid sector weakness [2] - The company is valued at $72 billion with a revenue of $17 billion, currently trading at $263.43, showing an 8.6% revenue growth over the last 12 months and an operating margin of 26.4% [2] - Historical data indicates that RCL stock has yielded a median return of 26.4% within a year following significant declines since 2010, suggesting strong operational performance and moderate valuation [3] Financial Metrics - RCL has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.29 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01, indicating a relatively low level of debt and liquidity [2] - The current P/E ratio is 17.6 and the P/EBIT ratio is 14.1, reflecting moderate valuation metrics [2] Market Performance - RCL shares experienced a significant decline of 67.7% from a high of $96.98 on June 2, 2021, to $31.28 on July 14, 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [8] - The stock fully rebounded to its pre-crisis peak by June 21, 2023, and reached a peak of $365.84 on August 28, 2025, currently trading at $263.43 [8] - Historical performance shows that RCL shares fell by 83.5% from a peak of $135.05 on January 17, 2020, to $22.33 on March 18, 2020, but recovered to pre-crisis highs by March 20, 2024 [8] Resilience Analysis - RCL stock has performed worse than the S&P 500 during various economic downturns, both in terms of the magnitude of decline and recovery speed [5] - A downturn resilience framework suggests that if RCL stock drops another 20-30% to $184, investors may face challenges in holding their positions [5] - A diversified portfolio including commodities, gold, and crypto alongside equities and bonds may yield better returns and provide superior protection [5]

Core Insights - Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock has experienced a significant decline of 27.9% in less than a month, dropping from $69.27 on October 15, 2025, to $49.97 currently, with potential for further losses due to its Very High valuation [2] - The stock has previously reached a price level of $35 within the past 5 years, indicating that this level is not out of reach [2] Historical Performance - Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following significant dips (defined as a decline of 30% or more within 30 days) is 1.7%, with a median peak return of 69% [3][6] - Rocket Lab has met the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days on 7 occasions since January 1, 2010 [4] Investment Strategy - Buying the dip requires thorough analysis from multiple perspectives, as demonstrated by the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes stocks that have consistently outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices [5] - The HQ Portfolio stocks yield superior returns with reduced risk compared to benchmark indices, providing a smoother investment experience [5]

Core Insights - Opendoor Technologies has managed approximately $9 billion in home transactions since the start of 2024, indicating a strong operational comeback after being previously dismissed by investors as a pandemic-era experiment [2] - The company's stock price has risen to about $8.50, leading to a market capitalization of $6.5 billion, a significant recovery from lows around $1 [3] Business Model and Strategy - Opendoor's original model allowed homeowners to sell their properties quickly and receive instant cash offers, with the company acquiring homes, making minor renovations, and reselling them for profit using pricing algorithms [5] - The company faced challenges due to rising mortgage rates and a lack of housing liquidity, resulting in over $1 billion in losses in 2022 as it was forced to sell homes at a loss [6] - In 2025, Opendoor has reduced its inventory risk and is strategically focusing on high-demand housing markets while refining its pricing strategy, leading to improved cash flow and a reported revenue of $915 million in the latest quarter [6][7] Market Position and Data Utilization - Opendoor is transitioning to a marketplace model, connecting buyers and sellers directly rather than holding homes on its balance sheet, which positions it as a tech platform rather than a capital-intensive real estate owner [8] - With over 250,000 home transactions, Opendoor has developed a comprehensive dataset on U.S. residential pricing trends, potentially allowing it to become a scalable, data-driven service akin to "Zillow-meets-Amazon" for homes [9] Future Outlook - Despite trading significantly below its peak of $35, if Opendoor can prove its ability to scale profitably without large inventories, the growth potential could exceed its current $6.5 billion valuation [11] - The company's resilience in navigating a housing downturn and rebuilding confidence is seen as a compelling aspect of its narrative [10]

Moderna (MRNA) stock has reached day 5 of a consecutive winning streak, with total gains during this time reaching a 13% return. The company’s value has increased by approximately $1.2 billion over the last 5 days, leading to a current market capitalization of around $10 billion. The stock is still 35.8% lower than its value at the end of 2024. This is in contrast to year-to-date returns of 16.5% for the S&P 500.Moderna headquarters, exterior view, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. (Photo by: Plexi Images/GHI/ ...

Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty ImagesGetty ImagesWynn stock (NASDAQ: WYNN) has been on a tear. The stock is up around 50% year-to-date, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 16% gain. The company reported solid Q3 2025 earnings that topped expectations on both revenue and profit. At first glance, that looks like a comeback story worth betting on. But if you dig into the numbers, the picture gets a lot less glamorous. Our analysis suggests the market’s enthusiasm may be overdone — and that Wynn stock could be h ...

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expects annual data center chip sales to reach $100 billion within the next five years, with earnings projected to more than triple [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA) shows stronger revenue growth and profitability compared to AMD, making it a potentially better investment choice [3][4] Financial Performance Comparison - NVDA's quarterly revenue growth stands at 55.6%, while AMD's is at 35.6% [3] - Over the last 12 months, NVDA's revenue growth is 71.6%, significantly higher than AMD's 31.8% [3] - NVDA's last twelve months profit margin is 58.1%, with a three-year average margin of 51.0%, indicating superior profitability compared to AMD [4] Investment Considerations - The comparison highlights the differences in growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples between AMD and NVDA [4] - Investing in individual stocks like AMD and NVDA carries inherent risks, suggesting a diversified portfolio may be a safer approach [8]

Core Insights - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock increased by 19% over the past month due to strong third-quarter earnings and robust sales of its flagship drugs, Dupixent and Libtayo [1] - Gilead Sciences presents a more favorable investment option compared to Regeneron, with superior revenue growth and profitability metrics [3][4] Revenue Growth Comparison - Gilead Sciences reported a quarterly revenue growth of 3.0%, while Regeneron achieved only 0.9% [3] - Over the last three years, Gilead's average revenue growth was 2.3%, surpassing Regeneron's 1.4% [3] Profitability Metrics - Gilead outperformed Regeneron in profitability, with a last twelve months margin of 38.3% and a three-year average margin of 39.2% [4] Valuation and Performance Overview - A detailed comparison of financials indicates that Gilead's fundamentals are stronger in terms of growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples compared to Regeneron [4][5] Investment Strategy - Asset allocation is recommended as a more prudent strategy than merely selecting individual stocks, with Trefis' High Quality Portfolio showing positive results during market downturns [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - AMZN stock shows strong operating performance and financial status despite a year-to-date gain of about 10%, which lags behind the Nasdaq-100's 20% increase, indicating consistent earnings growth driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS) and e-commerce efficiency gains [1][3] Valuation - Current valuations for AMZN are considered justified due to the durability of AWS's competitive advantage, ongoing margin expansion, and investments in logistics automation and AI infrastructure, despite elevated multiples [3][5] Growth - Amazon's top line has grown at an average rate of 11.3% over the past three years, with revenues increasing from $604 billion to $670 billion in the last year, and quarterly revenues rising by 13.3% to $168 billion [8] Profitability - AMZN's operating income over the last 12 months was $76 billion, representing an operating margin of 11.4%, with a cash flow margin of 18.1%, producing nearly $121 billion in operating cash flow [8] Financial Stability - AMZN's debt stood at $134 billion with a market capitalization of $2.6 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.2%. The company has $93 billion in cash, leading to a cash-to-assets ratio of 13.7% [11] Market Resilience - AMZN has shown resilience during economic downturns, performing slightly better than the S&P 500 index in terms of stock decline and recovery speed during significant market events [9][12]

Analyzing tariff effects on inflation.gettyInflation may be down to the Federal Reserve’s target, if we subtract the effect of tariffs. Perhaps, then, the Fed can bring down interest rates more. That’s an implication of research at Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab. Their “data contain daily prices scraped from the online stores of large multichannel U.S. retailers.” They calculate duties on the products and find that so far, pass-through to consumers averages 20% of the tariff. (That will likely rise t ...