ToplinePrecious metals continued a record-breaking rally Friday morning as the price of silver inched closer to a milestone $100 and gold neared a record $5,000 amid U.S.-European tensions and a weakening dollar, with one analyst blaming President Donald Trump’s “absolute unpredictability.”Gold and silver neared new milestones Friday. (Photo by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images)NurPhoto via Getty ImagesKey FactsThe price of silver is up more than 3% on Friday morning, about $99.73 as of 9:25 a.m., slig ...

Group 1 - Procter & Gamble reported mixed results for its fiscal second quarter of 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.88 exceeding analyst expectations, while revenue of $22.21 billion fell slightly below consensus estimates [2] - The company adjusted its fiscal year 2026 outlook for diluted net earnings per share growth due to higher restructuring charges but maintained its guidance for core earnings per share and organic sales growth [3] - P&G has solid fundamentals, showing a lower valuation (P/OpInc) compared to Estée Lauder Companies, while demonstrating higher growth in revenue and operating income [3][4] Group 2 - The disparity between valuation and performance suggests that P&G stock may be a better investment choice than Estée Lauder stock [4] - A multi-faceted analysis is essential for assessing investments, and the Trefis High Quality Portfolio aims to mitigate stock-specific risk while providing potential upside exposure [5][7] - Evaluating the current stock price of Estée Lauder Companies in relation to its peers may indicate whether the stock is overpriced, particularly if there has been a significant reversal in its performance metrics over the past year [6]

Company Overview - Intuit (INTU) is currently priced at approximately $548 per share, which is about 32% below its 52-week high [2] Investment Opportunity - Acquiring INTU stock at a 30% discount, around $380 per share, presents a potential trading opportunity with a 9.0% annualized return by selling Put Options [3] - Selling a long-term Put option expiring on 1/15/2027, with a strike price of $380, can yield approximately $1,850 in premium for each contract, translating to an annualized yield of about 5.0% on the $38,000 reserved for the potential purchase of the stock [3][10] Competitive Advantage - Intuit possesses a wide economic moat characterized by high switching costs, which reinforces its leading market position [7] - The company has consistently increased prices for its QuickBooks offerings, with the Plus plan rising by over 64% and the Advanced plan by 83% over five years (2020-2025), demonstrating strong pricing power [11] - QuickBooks maintains a dominant market share, encompassing almost half of the accounting software sector, reinforcing its status as the industry standard [11] Industry Trends - The industry is experiencing a strong tailwind, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% [9] - There is a secular trend towards the transition to Software as a Service (SaaS) in the financial sector [11] Financial Health - As of July 31, 2025, Intuit reported a robust cash and investment balance of approximately $4.6 billion against total liabilities of $6.0 billion, illustrating a healthy balance sheet and minimal bankruptcy risk [15]

Core Insights - Microsoft has returned $368 billion to shareholders over the past decade through dividends and share buybacks, making it the second-largest capital return in corporate history after Apple [2] - The company's strong cash flows from its transition to cloud computing and SaaS models have enabled it to reward investors while investing in Artificial Intelligence [3] Financial Performance - Microsoft has achieved a revenue growth rate of 15.6% over the last twelve months and a 13.2% average growth rate over the last three years [8] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 26.6% and an operating margin of 46.3% for the last twelve months [8] - The minimum annual revenue growth for Microsoft in the last three years was 7.5% [8] Capital Return Strategy - The combination of consistent dividend increases and strategic stock repurchases has enhanced Microsoft's earnings per share and maintained high investor confidence [3] - Dividends and share repurchases are seen as direct returns of capital to shareholders, reflecting management's confidence in the company's financial stability [4] Market Position - Microsoft, along with companies like Meta, is growing at a faster and more predictable rate compared to others, yet has returned a smaller proportion of its market cap to investors [5] - The total capital returned to shareholders as a percentage of current market cap appears inversely related to growth potential for reinvestments [5]

Core Insights - Abbott Laboratories reported Q4 2025 sales of $11.46 billion, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, but fell short of analyst projections by approximately 3% [2] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.50, meeting expectations, while total annual adjusted EPS reached $5.15, indicating a 10% growth [2] Financial Performance - Organic sales growth decreased to 3% during the quarter due to reduced demand in some areas [4] - Adjusted gross margin increased by 20 basis points to 57.1%, and operating margin expanded by 150 basis points to 25.8%, reflecting effective cost management [4] - Guidance for 2026 projects organic sales growth of 6.5%-7.5% and an adjusted EPS around $5.68 at the midpoint, aligning with consensus expectations [6] Valuation Dynamics - Abbott is currently priced at around $109 per share, trading at 21 times its trailing adjusted EPS of $5.15, down from a three-year average P/E of 24 times [6][7] - The forward P/E based on guidance is 19 times, indicating potential stability, but slowdowns in Nutrition and uncertainties regarding acquisitions limit optimism [7] Segment Performance - Medical Devices segment showed strong demand, particularly in structural heart and neuromodulation, with Freestyle Libre contributing significantly to organic growth [10] - Diagnostics revenue is normalizing post-COVID, with the Exact Sciences acquisition valued at up to $23 billion expected to enhance this sector [10] - Nutrition sales declined due to market dynamics, raising concerns about future growth in this segment [10] Future Catalysts and Risks - Potential upside for Abbott depends on realizing synergies from Exact Sciences, stabilization in Nutrition, and successful execution in high-growth devices [8] - Downside risks include persistent weakness in Nutrition, regulatory challenges with the Exact Sciences acquisition, and overall caution in medtech spending [9]

Core Insights - Intuitive Surgical reported strong Q4 2025 results with adjusted EPS of $2.53, exceeding estimates of $2.26 and increasing by 14.5% from Q4 2024's $2.21 [2] - Revenue reached $2.87 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus of $2.75 billion, while full-year revenue hit $10.1 billion (+21%) [2][4] - The current price of approximately $526 reflects a valuation of 59x trailing adjusted EPS of $8.93, consistent with its five-year average of 60x [2][6] Q4 Performance - Global da Vinci procedures increased by 18%, with U.S. general surgery gains and a 23% growth internationally [4][8] - Recurring revenue accounted for 81% of total revenue at $2.3 billion, rising by 20%, highlighting the strength of the annuity model [4] - Pro forma operating margins reached 37%, with GAAP income from operations at $864 million [4] 2026 Guidance - Management projects global procedure growth of 13%-15%, a slowdown from 2025's 18%, with adjusted EPS guidance of $9.80-$10.00 indicating growth of 10%-12% [6] - The cautious outlook may present a buying opportunity despite the slowdown narrative [6] Valuation Considerations - The historical average valuation of 60x seems comfortable, yet high-teens growth in procedures and industry-leading margins suggest a potential premium is warranted [6] - The strong fundamentals from Q4 results suggest potential for multiple expansion from the current 59x valuation [7] Financial Strength - Annual free cash flow doubled to $2.5 billion from $1.3 billion, funding $2.3 billion in share repurchases at an average price of $478 [8] - Pro forma net income reached $914 million in Q4, an increase from $805 million in the previous year [8] Growth Drivers - Opportunities for growth include surpassing the 13%-15% guidance through the ramp of da Vinci 5, increased international market penetration, and new indications [9] - The strength of free cash flow supports returns while financing R&D [9]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has seen a significant stock increase following an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit quantum system, with potential for further growth to $50 in the next 12-18 months if certain conditions are met [2][3] Group 1: Recent Developments - Rigetti's stock rose approximately 5% on January 22 after the C-DAC order, contributing to an 85% increase over the past year [2] - The company achieved nearly 99.5% fidelity on their 36-qubit systems and has outlined a strategy for over 1,000 qubits, which could be a catalyst for future growth [3] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Growth - The order pipeline is crucial, with the C-DAC deal expected to open avenues into India's supercomputing sector, potentially doubling revenue visibility by 2026-27 [6] - Achieving reliable 100+ qubit fidelity and scaling systems by mid-2026 could attract partnerships and validate current high valuations [6] - Wall Street analysts are beginning to take notice, with B. Riley issuing a Buy rating and a $35 target, and Wedbush setting a $40 target, which could trigger FOMO buying [6] - Rigetti has $600 million in cash from 2025 fundraising, allowing for R&D financing without significant dilution [6] - Sector momentum in quantum computing could position Rigetti as a leading player if competitors face challenges [6] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Execution risk is significant; failure to scale qubits or meet deployment deadlines could lead to a loss of market trust [6] - Competition from major players like Google and IBM poses a threat, as they have greater financial resources [6] - Rigetti's fundamentals show concerning negative margins around -4,700%, and any disappointing financial reports could lead to sharp sell-offs [6]

Core Viewpoint - GE Aerospace reported strong Q4 2025 results with adjusted EPS of $1.57, exceeding estimates by 10%, and full-year adjusted EPS totaled $6.37, indicating robust operational performance [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 20% in Q4 to $11.9 billion, driven by a 31% growth in services and record LEAP engine deliveries surpassing 1,800 units [2][6] - Total orders soared by 74% to $27.0 billion, reflecting strong demand in both commercial and defense segments [6] - Operating profit rose by 14% to $2.3 billion, although operating margins contracted by 90 basis points to 19.2% due to increased production investments [6] - Free cash flow totaled $1.8 billion, representing a 15% increase, showcasing solid cash-generating capabilities [6] Segment Performance - The Commercial Engines & Services segment displayed the strongest performance with orders growing by 76% and services revenue soaring by 31% [11] - The Defense & Propulsion Technologies segment exhibited steady growth with orders up by 61% and revenue increasing by 13% [11] 2026 Guidance - Management has issued 2026 guidance projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $7.10-$7.40, implying approximately 14% growth at the midpoint [8] - Free cash flow is expected to remain strong, bolstering shareholder returns and balance sheet flexibility [8] Valuation Concerns - The stock has risen significantly over the past twelve months (+47%), leading to a high P/E ratio of 46x, which is a substantial premium to historical averages [4][9] - The current trailing P/E ratio exceeds the three-year average of 40.2x, indicating that the market is factoring in flawless execution and sustained double-digit growth [9] Investment Outlook - The risk-reward profile appears unbalanced at current levels, with the 46.2x P/E ratio providing little margin for error [13] - Investors may find it more advantageous to wait for a more appealing entry point rather than pursuing momentum following the significant rally [13]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is approaching $5,000 per troy ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand from retail investors and central banks [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of recent trading, COMEX gold futures for February delivery were priced at $4,930.70 per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase [2]. - Gold prices have seen significant appreciation, ending 2024 at 26% higher and rising another 65% in 2025, marking the highest annual price rise in over 45 years [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly turning to gold and gold exchange-traded funds as a safe haven amid global uncertainties, including trade wars and conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war [4][5]. - Central banks are also major players in the gold market, with Poland being the largest official sector buyer in the previous year [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Dynamics - Other notable central bank buyers include Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Russia, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [7]. - The European Central Bank acknowledged that gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, only behind the dollar [7]. Group 4: Future Forecasts - Many forecasters predict that the gold rally will continue, with Goldman Sachs raising its end-2026 price forecast to $5,400 per ounce [9]. - J.P. Morgan Global Research suggests that $6,000 per ounce is a long-term possibility, influenced by ongoing geopolitical risks and expanding ETF holdings [10]. - Despite potential price corrections due to easing geopolitical tensions, the near-term outlook for gold remains bullish, as any price dips may attract more buyers [11].

Core Insights - Marvell Technology has lagged behind the semiconductor market during the AI boom but may benefit as AI infrastructure evolves towards efficiency and interconnects, aligning with its strengths [2] Inference Shift - The AI industry is expected to transition from "brute force" training to inference in 2026, requiring lower latency and greater power efficiency, which Marvell's custom XPUs are designed for [4] - Custom AI revenue for Marvell is projected to reach $1.8 billion in 2026, with a focus on 3nm and 2nm nodes for enhanced efficiency [4] Connectivity Innovations - Marvell is investing in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and has acquired Celestial AI for $3.25 billion to integrate optical interconnects, addressing data movement challenges in large-scale AI systems [5] - The shift from copper to optical interconnects could position Marvell as a leader in next-generation AI cluster design [5] Customer Diversification - Marvell has been criticized for its reliance on Amazon Web Services, but it is diversifying by securing custom silicon design wins with three of the four major U.S. hyperscalers [6] - Compatibility with Nvidia's NVLink fabric enhances Marvell's adoption potential in AI ecosystems, reducing earnings variability and improving market perception [6] Financial Outlook - Marvell is trading at approximately 22x FY'27 consensus earnings, a discount compared to peers, despite a projected revenue increase of 42% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [7] - The company’s operating margins are around 15%, and improving these margins alongside revenue growth could lead to a re-rating of its stock [7]