Group 1 - Prudential Financial is expected to report earnings on July 30, 2025, with revenues projected at approximately $13.4 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline, and earnings per share estimated at $3.23, indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous year [2] - The U.S. insurance operations are anticipated to remain a significant contributor to earnings, with improved underwriting and reduced expenses in Q1, although some areas are experiencing weaker investment and fee-related income [2] - The global investment management division is likely to perform well due to an increase in assets under management driven by equity market appreciation, net inflows, and enhanced investment performance [3] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of Prudential Financial is $37 billion, with total revenue for the past twelve months at $61 billion and net income at $2.3 billion [4] - Historical data shows that Prudential Financial has recorded 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 45% occurrence of positive returns [7] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 2.5%, while the median of the negative returns is -2.2% [7] Group 3 - There is a strategy to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, which can help in executing trades based on the strongest correlations observed [8] - The performance of peers can influence the post-earnings stock reaction, with historical data indicating that price adjustments may begin before earnings are disclosed [9] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, delivering returns exceeding 91% since its inception, providing an alternative for investors seeking less volatility [5][10]

Core Insights - Boeing is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical trends indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings reports [2][3] - Analysts predict a loss of $1.31 per share on revenue of $21.72 billion for the upcoming quarter, an improvement compared to a loss of $2.90 per share on revenue of $16.87 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Boeing's current market capitalization stands at $176 billion, with reported revenue of $69 billion over the last twelve months, but it has faced operational losses of $10 billion and a net loss of $12 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Boeing's stock declined on the day after earnings in 55% of occurrences, with a median drop of -2.9% and the most significant drop reaching -8.8% [2][7] - In the last five years, there were 20 earnings data points, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 45% of the time [7] - The percentage of positive one-day returns increases to 67% when examining data from the last three years [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical likelihoods and analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide their trading decisions [6] - A strategy involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [8] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Boeing's post-earnings stock reactions, with pricing potentially starting prior to earnings announcements [9]

Core Insights - JetBlue Airways is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with a historical trend of negative one-day returns post-earnings announcements, occurring in 80% of cases, with a median decline of -5.9% [2][3][7] - Analysts forecast a loss of $0.33 per share on revenues of $2.29 billion for the upcoming quarter, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $0.08 per share on revenues of $2.43 billion [3][4] - JetBlue's current market capitalization is approximately $1.5 billion, with total revenue of $9.2 billion over the past twelve months, but it has incurred operational losses of $110 million and a net loss of $287 million [4] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, JetBlue has recorded 20 earnings data points, with only 4 positive one-day returns, indicating a 20% success rate, which drops to 17% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the 4 positive returns is 2.7%, while the median of the 16 negative returns is -5.9% [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities, while post-earnings analysis can help in understanding the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns [6][8] - Correlation between 1D, 5D, and 21D returns can guide trading strategies, particularly if strong correlations are identified [8][9]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) is scheduled to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.94 per share on revenue of $111.6 billion, compared to last year's earnings of $6.80 per share on revenues of $98.86 billion, indicating a contraction in profit margins due to rising medical costs [2][3] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Over the past five years, UNH stock has shown positive one-day returns after earnings announcements in 53% of cases, with a median one-day gain of 4.0% and a maximum increase of 7.2% [2][7] - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 45%, with a median of 4.0% for positive returns and -2.9% for negative returns [7] Group 2: Financial Metrics - UnitedHealth has a current market capitalization of approximately $267 billion, generating $410 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $33 billion and a net income of $22 billion, reflecting strong operational profitability [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical data to position themselves ahead of earnings releases or analyze post-earnings returns to guide their trading strategies [5][9] - Understanding the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D, 21D) returns can help traders make informed decisions based on historical performance [9]

Group 1 - Harley-Davidson is expected to report Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, 2025, with consensus forecasts indicating earnings of approximately $0.96 per share, down from $1.63 in the same quarter last year, and revenue expected to be around $1.1 billion, reflecting a nearly 19% year-over-year decrease [2] - The decline in earnings and revenue suggests a diminishing interest in Harley's high-end motorcycles, attributed to low consumer confidence amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty [2] - The company has retracted its full-year 2025 outlook due to uncertainties related to trade policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, while management emphasizes commitment to cost control and stricter inventory management [2] Group 2 - Harley-Davidson currently has a market capitalization of $3.0 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $4.8 billion, generating $314 million in operating profits and $354 million in net income [3] - Historical trends indicate that there have been 17 earnings data points over the past five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 65% occurrence of positive returns [5] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 7.8%, while the median of the 6 negative returns is -6.8% [5] Group 3 - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be effective, particularly if the correlation is strong [6] - The correlation between 1D and 5D returns can guide traders to position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [6] - The performance of peers can influence Harley-Davidson's stock reaction following earnings, with market adjustments potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [7]

Core Viewpoint - ASML has faced a stock decline of nearly 5% over the past week and 11% over the last month due to trade tensions, leading to a softer financial forecast for 2026 [2][3] Financial Performance - ASML's Q2 2025 earnings report indicates anticipated revenue for Q3 between 7.4 to 7.9 billion euros, slightly below expectations [2] - The gross margin is estimated at around 52%, a decrease from the previous estimate of 51% to 53% [2] - The company reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros ($6.4 billion), approximately 25% higher than expected, with a record backlog of 33 billion euros ($38 billion) [8] Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market remains resilient, with TSMC raising its sales growth forecast for 2025 to 30% in dollar terms [2] - Trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could complicate demand forecasting for ASML's products [4] - ASML's clients may reduce capital expenditures due to ongoing trade conflicts and export control regulations [4] Technological Position - ASML manufactures advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, essential for producing cutting-edge chips at process nodes of 5 nanometers and smaller [5][6] - The demand for ASML's products has surged, particularly driven by the rise of AI, with expectations of a 30% increase in EUV tool deployments in 2025 [7] Valuation and Investment Potential - ASML stock is trading at 27 times the estimated earnings for FY2025, with projected revenue growth of approximately 14% this year [8] - The company's dominant position and exposure to the generative AI trend could make the stock appealing for long-term investment [8]

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics has signed a multiyear deal worth 22.8 trillion won ($16.5 billion) with Tesla to manufacture AI chips [1][3] - The agreement will run through the end of 2033 and is expected to significantly benefit Samsung's struggling contract chipmaking business [3][4] - Shares of Samsung surged nearly 7% following the announcement of the deal [3] Group 2 - Tesla is collaborating with Samsung to produce the next-generation AI6 inference chip, intended for humanoid robots, self-driving cars, and AI data centers [2] - The chip will be manufactured at Samsung's Texas facility, which is set to begin operations in 2026 [2] - Samsung's foundry business has been facing challenges, including a projected 56% decline in second-quarter operating profit to approximately 4.6 trillion won [5] Group 3 - Samsung's contract chip manufacturing business has been losing market share to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which held a 67% share of the global foundry industry in Q4 2024, while Samsung had only 8% [4] - The company anticipates a narrowing of operating losses in its contract chip manufacturing segment in the second half of the year due to a gradual recovery in demand [6] - Samsung aims to start mass production of chips using its 2-nanometer process technology, with potential clients including Qualcomm and Japan's Preferred Networks [6]

Core Insights - Tesla has entered into a significant deal with Samsung for the manufacturing of its next-generation AI chip, valued at $16.5 billion, which will enhance Samsung's semiconductor business [1][2] Group 1: Deal Details - The contract with Samsung will span multiple years and is set to run until the end of 2033, with production beginning in 2026 at Samsung's new semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas [1] - Elon Musk emphasized the strategic importance of this partnership, indicating that Samsung's Texas facility will be dedicated to producing Tesla's AI6 chip [1][2] Group 2: Manufacturing Efficiency - Tesla will assist Samsung in maximizing manufacturing efficiency, although specific details on the nature of this assistance were not disclosed [2] - Musk mentioned his personal involvement in overseeing the production line to expedite progress [2] Group 3: Current and Future Chips - Samsung currently manufactures Tesla's AI4 chip, which powers the Autopilot feature in Tesla vehicles [2] - Tesla has completed the design for the AI5 chip, which will be produced by TSMC, and is expected to have approximately ten times the capability of the AI4 chip [2] Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the deal, Samsung Electronics' shares rose by 6.22%, reaching $50.6 (KRW 70,000) [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd. has experienced a significant increase of 69.4% in 2025, but it is not currently considered a buy due to its historical performance and market dynamics [2][7]. Fund Overview - ASA manages over $600 million in assets, focusing primarily on gold (72.5% of the portfolio), with mining stocks (24.8%) and silver (2%) making up the rest [3]. - The fund has a low dividend yield of 0.2%, which is considerably below the average yield of 8.5% for closed-end funds (CEFs) [4]. Valuation Metrics - ASA is trading at an 11% discount to its net asset value (NAV), compared to an average discount of 4% for other CEFs [4][5]. - Historically, ASA has maintained a similar discount to NAV for nearly 25 years, indicating a persistent undervaluation [5]. Performance Analysis - The fund's performance is closely tied to gold prices, as evidenced by its 69.4% increase in 2025, driven by a surge in gold prices [7]. - However, ASA has a tendency to decline significantly after periods of rapid gains, as seen in its performance following the gold price increase in early 2016 [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The fund is suitable for short-term traders looking to capitalize on market demand for gold, but it may not be ideal for long-term investors due to its historical underperformance [10]. - Current market conditions suggest that ASA is a sell, and potential investors should wait for a price correction in gold before considering an investment [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing speculation regarding the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and its implications for the stock market, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on Wall Street [4][5][10] - The "TACO" trade, which suggests that Trump will back down from aggressive actions, has led to market complacency, with the S&P 500 up 7.8% for 2025, indicating a belief that Trump will not take drastic measures that could negatively impact the market [8][9] - There is a concern that if Trump continues to see stock market performance as a priority, it could lead to volatility, as any significant market rally might encourage him to take actions that could reverse gains [11][10] Group 2 - The article introduces a strategy for hedging against market volatility through closed-end funds (CEFs) that utilize covered-call strategies, which can provide dividends of over 7% [13][14] - Three recommended CEFs include the Nuveen Dow 30 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (DIAX), the Nuveen S&P 500 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (SPXX), and the Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX), which offer exposure to major U.S. companies while trading at discounts to their net asset values [15][16] - DIAX is highlighted as a particularly attractive option due to its larger discount compared to its historical average, making it a contrarian play in anticipation of increased market volatility [19][20]