郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 23:20
For investors, the most important part of WWDC 2025 is Apple's AI—other updates, such as UI design, are secondary. While AI competition is more of a marathon than a sprint, WWDC 2025 is likely to disappoint most investors' expectations (particularly when compared with Google I/O). That said, Apple's stock didn't move much following the event, consistent with my analysis that market expectations for Apple’s AI are already quite low. Additionally, some investors still cling to the belief that Apple "will fina ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 23:20
對投資人來說,WWDC 2025最重要的是Apple的AI,其他的更新如介面設計都是次要。雖然AI競爭像一場馬拉松,而非單一事件決定輸贏,但WWDC 2025應該讓大部分的投資人期待落空 (特別是跟Google I/O比較下)。不過,WWDC後Apple股價波動不大,原因就如我分析,市場對Apple的AI預期很低,另外也是有部分投資人始終相信「Apple終究會在AI領域佔有一席之地」。AI產業進展正加速中,意味著Apple如果不加大投資,跟競爭對手的差距可能會擴大。這或許對Apple的硬體在短期內影響有限,但這是Apple在次世代消費電子產品 (如AR眼鏡) 的挑戰。郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):Apple WWDC 2025的3個觀察重點:1. Apple的AI策略是焦點,其他如介面設計改變、作業系統功能改善等都是次要。2. 不預期Apple在AI技術上有重大突破。不過,市場對Apple的AI預期不高,只要Apple能清楚說明AI如何在終端裝置上實現與開發時程,應該就算及格。3. ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 04:44
Three Key Points to Watch at Apple WWDC 20251. Apple’s AI strategy takes center stage, with updates like UI changes and OS improvements playing a secondary role.2. No major breakthroughs in Apple's AI technology are expected. Still, with the market's limited expectations, Apple can meet them by clearly explaining how AI features will work on devices and outlining a development timeline.3. Apple's on-device AI implementation will likely focus on several aspects: 1) Rebranding Apple Intelligence/Siri, 2) Inte ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 04:43
Apple WWDC 2025的3個觀察重點:1. Apple的AI策略是焦點,其他如介面設計改變、作業系統功能改善等都是次要。2. 不預期Apple在AI技術上有重大突破。不過,市場對Apple的AI預期不高,只要Apple能清楚說明AI如何在終端裝置上實現與開發時程,應該就算及格。3. 終端裝置上實現AI可能聚焦在幾個地方,包括:1) Apple Intelligence/Siri品牌之再造、2) 作業系統整合AI以提升整體體驗、3) 提供第三方開發者整合AI與App的工具、4) 強化隱私保護機制 (軟體與基礎建設)、與5) 與更多既有知名AI服務平台合作。去年WWWDC因Apple宣布琳瑯滿目的AI服務,而對其AI前景抱持樂觀的想法,在經過一年的不如預期後,今年這種樂觀情緒應該會有所降溫。許多人始終認為,Apple憑藉生態、晶片開發與產品設計的優勢,終究能在AI趨勢下取得一席之地。這種想法沒錯,但這是不需深入研究就能得到的結論。上述的Apple既有優勢,只能保證Apple的硬體產品,會是很好的AI服務/軟體通路,但不代表Apple可憑藉AI創造差異化或可持續的競爭優勢。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-28 10:46
Companies used to handling market expectations tend to play it safe with their quarterly guidance during product transitions, unless they’re sure about the new product ramp-up and how smoothly the transition will go.對管理市場預期比較有經驗的公司,在面對產品轉換的季度時,除非對新產品量產與轉換效率有信心,否則通常都會用比較謹慎的態度提供指引。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-27 12:47
According to the news, if Trump is indeed threatening a 25% iPhone tariff because Tim Cook didn't join his Middle East trip, it might actually be a good thing for Apple in the short term. Apple could potentially delay any discussion and implementation of iPhone tariffs by calming Trump's emotions and shifting his focus elsewhere.https://t.co/eLwFO9y2bZ ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-27 12:47
Trade & Tariff Implications - A 25% tariff on iPhones threatened by Trump could be a short-term positive for Apple if it allows the company to delay implementation through appeasement [1] Geopolitical Strategy - The potential tariff threat is linked to Tim Cook's decision not to accompany Trump to the Middle East, suggesting a possible link between political relations and trade policy [1]
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-24 12:00
Apple is a consumer electronics company whose current products and services have no significant connection to national security, so why is it persistently and publicly targeted by Trump?1. Pressuring high-profile targets amplifies publicity. Forcing Apple, the world's most famous company, and its iconic iPhone to adopt "Made in America" policies generates maximum exposure and reinforces Trump’s ongoing narrative.2. Selecting a target reluctant to oppose or retaliate.Apple is reluctant to openly contest Trum ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-24 12:00
Apple是消費性電子公司,其目前產品與服務與國家安全無重大關聯,但該公司為何會被川普持續針對?1. 施壓高知名度目標可放大宣傳效果迫使全球最知名的公司 (Apple) 與家喻戶曉的產品 (iPhone) 落實「美國製造」政策,宣傳效果極佳,並強化川普一直以來的主張。2. 選擇不願反對與報復的對象,降低施壓風險Apple不願公然反對川普的言論,也沒有報復本錢,意味著施壓風險極低,故川普可放心持續施壓。3. 施壓成功與否都能受益若Apple把iPhone組裝產線搬回美國,對川普而言絕對是宣揚「美國製造」的好機會,並將此列為重要政績。若Apple透過協議,讓川普暫時性不針對他們,代表川普也透過協議取得他想要的其他東西。等未來有宣傳「美國製造」的需要時,再針對Apple並用關稅課徵施壓。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-23 17:43
Here are a few additional points:1. The specific tariff percentage Trump proposes on iPhones isn’t the main concern. The bigger issue is that this is Trump’s second recent pointed comment targeting Apple—a warning sign Apple can’t ignore.2. Apple’s top priority in negotiations with Trump should be finding ways to avoid, delay, or prevent higher iPhone tariffs. For example, Apple could adjust its DEI policies to secure Trump’s temporary commitment to hold off on targeting them.3. Moving all iPhone assembly f ...