郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-10-05 13:32
An Analysis of U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s Call for a “50–50” Semiconductor Commitment from TaiwanFull storyhttps://t.co/ad62vebh5C https://t.co/tTa1htrY4C ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-10-05 13:31
針對美國商務部長Lutnick對台灣呼籲半導體承諾「50–50」之評估與分析閱讀全文https://t.co/6GEalNUgML https://t.co/XzMBWdMZXk ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-29 12:28
If the goal is to boost U.S. semiconductor output, TSMC taking equity stakes or forming joint ventures is far less efficient than directly expanding its U.S. capacity. That should be obvious—and it’s why TSMC has had no equity- or JV-related discussions with any company to date and has repeatedly denied related market rumors.https://t.co/jVetrcuKbR ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-29 12:28
站在提升美國半導體產出的角度,台積電入股或合資的效率,遠遠不及其直接投入在美產能擴張。這是顯而易見的事實,這是台積電至今沒有跟任何公司有入股或合資相關討論、並持續否認多次市場相關傳言的原因。https://t.co/bFsku1XCIU https://t.co/ck8uRGriJ6 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-29 05:01
Xiaomi 17 Series Update & Analysis: Shipment Cut, Challenges, and Paths Back to Growth1. Shipment plan cut: My latest industry surveys point to a significant ~20% cut for the Xiaomi 17 series shipments (from an original target of ~10M units). If there is no further step-up in pricing or marketing going forward, total shipments for the 17 series could fall below the 15 series’ ~8M units.2. Mix shift behind the cut: The cut is mainly due to weaker-than-expected demand for the standard model. It was expected t ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-29 05:01
小米新款Xiaomi 17系列更新與相關分析:出貨下修、挑戰與重返成長的機會1. 出貨下修:我最新的產業調查顯示,Xiaomi 17系列總出貨量顯著下修20% (原先目標約1,000萬部),若後續無更積極的價格策略或行銷活動,17系列總出貨量可能會低於15系列的約800萬部。2. 下修背後的產品組合變動:下修主因是17標準版低於預期。原先預估標準版需求最強勁,可佔整體17系列約50-55%,但實際開賣後僅佔約15-20%。雖Pro Max與Pro有增加訂單,但仍無法抵銷17標準版砍單,故整體出貨預估下修約20%。3. 來自iPhone的競爭壓力:Xiaomi 17標準版需求低於預期的主因之一是iPhone 17標準版在中國市場優於預期。4. 從競爭角度看,小米在2026年的中國高階市場挑戰有兩個:1) Apple/iPhone在中國最壞已過,需面對來自2026新款iPhone的競爭壓力 (1H26 新款iPhone SE、2H26有新款高階iPhone系列)。2) 華為的高階機型需求因純血鴻蒙相容性而低於預期,預期此問題將在2026年改善,或官方提供更普遍的刷機 (回至兼容版鴻蒙) 服務。5. 後續觀察:如果 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-18 14:27
Key Industry Takeaways from Nvidia’s $5 Billion Investment in Intel1. Partnership Could Define and Accelerate the AI PC LandscapeFor Nvidia, developing its own Windows-on-ARM processors carries high uncertainty; for Intel, establishing a competitive edge in GPUs is difficult. Teaming up (CPU + GPU) could create powerful synergies and advantages across the PC ecosystem.2. Significant Synergistic Potential in x86 / Mid & Low-Range / Inference AI ServersA key trend ahead is enterprises building x86-based / mid ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-18 14:27
Nvidia投資Intel 50億美元之產業趨勢重點分析1, Nvidia與Intel合作有望定義AI PC並加速其發展對Nvidia而言,自行開發Windows on ARM處理器的不確定性高;對 Intel 而言,要在GPU領域快速提升競爭力難度高。兩者合作(CPU+GPU)可望在PC生態中形成強綜效與優勢。2. 在 x86/中低階/推論用 AI 伺服器上也具高綜效企業自建x86/中低階/推論用的AI伺服器為未來關鍵趨勢。Intel擁有 x86伺服器企業客戶與通路資源;Nvidia具備技術優勢 (AI晶片、NVLink、CUDA等)。若雙方高度整合技術與銷售優勢,將有機會顯著受惠於龐大的潛在需求。3. 台積電:先進製程與AI晶片訂單數年內不受影響,主要觀察PC、GPU、x86伺服器與網通客戶的市佔與訂單變化,但整體而言風險可控(1) 台積電先進製程優勢可望至少維持至2030年,Nvidia與Intel合作不易改變此趨勢。(2) AI晶片需最先進製程,台積電的AI晶片訂單不受影響。(3) 此投資未來可能改變Nvidia與Intel的競爭者之市佔 (如AMD的PC、GPU與x86伺服器晶片、Broadcom的 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-17 09:45
MacBook models will feature a touch panel for the first time, further blurring the line with the iPad. This shift appears to reflect Apple’s long-term observation of iPad user behavior, indicating that in certain scenarios, touch controls can enhance both productivity and the overall user experience.1. The OLED MacBook Pro, expected to enter mass production by late 2026, will incorporate a touch panel using on-cell touch technology.2. The more affordable MacBook model powered by an iPhone processor, slated ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-09-17 09:45
MacBook將首度配備觸控面板,與iPad的界線將進一步模糊。這樣的變化可能反映出Apple觀察多年iPad用戶行為,發現某些用戶情境下觸控操作可改善生產力與用戶體驗。1. 預計在2026年底量產的OLED MacBook Pro,將配備觸控面板 (採用on-cell觸控技術)。2. 預計在4Q25量產的配備iPhone處理器之低價版MacBook不配備觸控面板。第二代 (預計在2027年量產) 規格尚在討論中,有支援觸控功能的可能。 ...