郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-24 12:00
Apple is a consumer electronics company whose current products and services have no significant connection to national security, so why is it persistently and publicly targeted by Trump?1. Pressuring high-profile targets amplifies publicity. Forcing Apple, the world's most famous company, and its iconic iPhone to adopt "Made in America" policies generates maximum exposure and reinforces Trump’s ongoing narrative.2. Selecting a target reluctant to oppose or retaliate.Apple is reluctant to openly contest Trum ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-24 12:00
Apple是消費性電子公司,其目前產品與服務與國家安全無重大關聯,但該公司為何會被川普持續針對?1. 施壓高知名度目標可放大宣傳效果迫使全球最知名的公司 (Apple) 與家喻戶曉的產品 (iPhone) 落實「美國製造」政策,宣傳效果極佳,並強化川普一直以來的主張。2. 選擇不願反對與報復的對象,降低施壓風險Apple不願公然反對川普的言論,也沒有報復本錢,意味著施壓風險極低,故川普可放心持續施壓。3. 施壓成功與否都能受益若Apple把iPhone組裝產線搬回美國,對川普而言絕對是宣揚「美國製造」的好機會,並將此列為重要政績。若Apple透過協議,讓川普暫時性不針對他們,代表川普也透過協議取得他想要的其他東西。等未來有宣傳「美國製造」的需要時,再針對Apple並用關稅課徵施壓。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-23 17:43
Here are a few additional points:1. The specific tariff percentage Trump proposes on iPhones isn’t the main concern. The bigger issue is that this is Trump’s second recent pointed comment targeting Apple—a warning sign Apple can’t ignore.2. Apple’s top priority in negotiations with Trump should be finding ways to avoid, delay, or prevent higher iPhone tariffs. For example, Apple could adjust its DEI policies to secure Trump’s temporary commitment to hold off on targeting them.3. Moving all iPhone assembly f ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-23 17:43
補充幾個重點:1. 川普宣稱將課徵多少iPhone關稅並非重點,重點這是川普近期第二次對Apple針對性的言論,此為Apple不容忽視的訊號。2. 如何避免、延緩川普iPhone關稅或進一步調升,就是Apple現在要跟川普談判的首要重點。例如,Apple能否能藉由改變DEI政策,以換取川普暫時性的不針對他們。3. 在川普卸任前,將所有iPhone美國機型的組裝產線搬回美國是不現實的,但川普又反對Apple在印度製造iPhone美國機型,故即便此次Apple與川普談成暫時性的協議以避免iPhone關稅,但在川普卸任前,難保Apple將時不時面臨關稅威嚇。郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):就獲利而言,Apple為在美國市場銷售的iPhone承受25%關稅,遠好於將iPhone組裝產線搬回美國。https://t.co/ycTwPmQyEp https://t.co/OfyRCH4gfd ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-23 13:19
In terms of profitability, it's way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to US.https://t.co/ycTwPmQyEp https://t.co/VPRRpj0caU ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-23 13:19
就獲利而言,Apple為在美國市場銷售的iPhone承受25%關稅,遠好於將iPhone組裝產線搬回美國。https://t.co/ycTwPmQyEp https://t.co/OfyRCH4gfd ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-22 13:25
My industry research indicates the following regarding the new AI hardware device from Jony Ive's collaboration with OpenAI:1. Mass production is expected to start in 2027.2. Assembly and shipping will occur outside China to reduce geopolitical risks, with Vietnam currently the likely assembly location.3. The current prototype is slightly larger than the AI Pin, with a form factor as compact and elegant as an iPod Shuffle. The design and specifications may change before mass production.4. One of the intende ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-22 13:25
我的產業調查指出,關於Jony Ive與OpenAI合作的新型態AI硬體裝置:1. 預計將在2027年量產。2. 將在非中國組裝與出貨,以降低地緣政治風險。目前預計在越南組裝。3. 目前樣品的外觀體積略大於AI Pin,外關設計猶如iPod Shuffle般小巧精緻。上述設計與規格在量產前可能還會有變化。4. 其中一個使用方式是將此裝置掛在脖子上。5. 將配備相機與麥克風,可偵測外接環境,不具備顯示功能。6. 預計需與手機跟PC連結,並利用手機與PC的運算與顯示功能。我認為OpenAI選擇在此時官方公佈與Jony Ive的合作,其中一個目的可能是想轉移市場對剛結束的Google I/O之注意力。Google I/O演說中強調的Google生態與AI整合之優勢,是OpenAI現階段無法抗衡的,故OpenAI用不同的主題分散市場注意力。但AI走入現實生活 (也就是所謂的實體/物理AI) 已是市場公認的下一個AI關鍵趨勢,Jony Ive與Open AI的合作成功與否仍需觀察,但這也反映上述趨勢。此合作也讓我想起Alan Kay的名言:People who are really serious about soft ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-20 11:15
Apple's competitors in the large-sized foldable device market may not be limited to Huawei. My research indicates that Amazon is also internally developing a similar product, which has not yet officially kicked off. If development progresses as planned, it is projected to enter mass production in late 2026 or 2027. (Apple’s 18.8-inch foldable device is slated for mass production in late 2027 or 2028.) ...