郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-18 16:58
Apple Foldable iPhone Updates:1. Assembly supplier Foxconn is expected to officially kick off the project in late 3Q25 or early 4Q25. As of now, many component specifications (including the hinge, which has drawn considerable market attention) have yet to be finalized.2. The foldable display is one of the few components with finalized specifications and serves as a good reference for estimating potential shipments. Samsung Display (SDC) plans to build annual production capacity for 7-8 million foldable pane ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-18 16:58
Apple摺疊iPhone更新:1. 組裝廠商鴻海預計在3Q25底或4Q25初正式開案,目前仍有不少零組件的完整規格尚未定案,包括市場關注的軸承。2. 目前用折疊螢幕推估折疊iPhone出貨量有較好的參考性,因其是少數規格完全定案的零組件之一。Samsung Display (SDC) 預計將建置每年約7-800萬片折疊螢幕的產能,供折疊iPhone所用。因2026年實際生產時間可能僅數個月,2026年折疊iPhone螢幕出貨量應會低於年產能。3. 市場近期傳言Apple下單1,500-2,000萬部的折疊iPhone訂單,經過對數種零組件調查指出,這種等級的訂單規模是指生命週期 (2-3年) 的訂單總量,而非2026年出貨量。這代表Apple預計在2H26量產的折疊iPhone,或許是高單價因素,該機型在2027與2028年的年出貨量均為數百萬部。4. 需注意的是,在正式開案前,一切改變都有可能。郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):Apple的首款折疊iPhone預測:市場定位、硬體規格、開發時程、出貨預估點擊閱讀https://t.co/7tIVjHkqQr https:// ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-18 15:28
As I mentioned earlier, Apple could try to calm Trump's emotions in order to temporarily shift his focus from the iPhone tariffs. It looks like they’ve figured out how.Trump: Apple Is Going to Buy a Lot of Trump Gold Cardshttps://t.co/BpYwyzdkAW郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):According to the news, if Trump is indeed threatening a 25% iPhone tariff because Tim Cook didn't join his Middle East trip, it might actually be a good thing for Apple in the short term. Apple could potentially delay any discussion a ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 23:20
For investors, the most important part of WWDC 2025 is Apple's AI—other updates, such as UI design, are secondary. While AI competition is more of a marathon than a sprint, WWDC 2025 is likely to disappoint most investors' expectations (particularly when compared with Google I/O). That said, Apple's stock didn't move much following the event, consistent with my analysis that market expectations for Apple’s AI are already quite low. Additionally, some investors still cling to the belief that Apple "will fina ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 23:20
對投資人來說,WWDC 2025最重要的是Apple的AI,其他的更新如介面設計都是次要。雖然AI競爭像一場馬拉松,而非單一事件決定輸贏,但WWDC 2025應該讓大部分的投資人期待落空 (特別是跟Google I/O比較下)。不過,WWDC後Apple股價波動不大,原因就如我分析,市場對Apple的AI預期很低,另外也是有部分投資人始終相信「Apple終究會在AI領域佔有一席之地」。AI產業進展正加速中,意味著Apple如果不加大投資,跟競爭對手的差距可能會擴大。這或許對Apple的硬體在短期內影響有限,但這是Apple在次世代消費電子產品 (如AR眼鏡) 的挑戰。郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):Apple WWDC 2025的3個觀察重點:1. Apple的AI策略是焦點,其他如介面設計改變、作業系統功能改善等都是次要。2. 不預期Apple在AI技術上有重大突破。不過,市場對Apple的AI預期不高,只要Apple能清楚說明AI如何在終端裝置上實現與開發時程,應該就算及格。3. ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 04:44
Three Key Points to Watch at Apple WWDC 20251. Apple’s AI strategy takes center stage, with updates like UI changes and OS improvements playing a secondary role.2. No major breakthroughs in Apple's AI technology are expected. Still, with the market's limited expectations, Apple can meet them by clearly explaining how AI features will work on devices and outlining a development timeline.3. Apple's on-device AI implementation will likely focus on several aspects: 1) Rebranding Apple Intelligence/Siri, 2) Inte ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-06-09 04:43
Apple WWDC 2025的3個觀察重點:1. Apple的AI策略是焦點,其他如介面設計改變、作業系統功能改善等都是次要。2. 不預期Apple在AI技術上有重大突破。不過,市場對Apple的AI預期不高,只要Apple能清楚說明AI如何在終端裝置上實現與開發時程,應該就算及格。3. 終端裝置上實現AI可能聚焦在幾個地方,包括:1) Apple Intelligence/Siri品牌之再造、2) 作業系統整合AI以提升整體體驗、3) 提供第三方開發者整合AI與App的工具、4) 強化隱私保護機制 (軟體與基礎建設)、與5) 與更多既有知名AI服務平台合作。去年WWWDC因Apple宣布琳瑯滿目的AI服務,而對其AI前景抱持樂觀的想法,在經過一年的不如預期後,今年這種樂觀情緒應該會有所降溫。許多人始終認為,Apple憑藉生態、晶片開發與產品設計的優勢,終究能在AI趨勢下取得一席之地。這種想法沒錯,但這是不需深入研究就能得到的結論。上述的Apple既有優勢,只能保證Apple的硬體產品,會是很好的AI服務/軟體通路,但不代表Apple可憑藉AI創造差異化或可持續的競爭優勢。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-28 10:46
Companies used to handling market expectations tend to play it safe with their quarterly guidance during product transitions, unless they’re sure about the new product ramp-up and how smoothly the transition will go.對管理市場預期比較有經驗的公司,在面對產品轉換的季度時,除非對新產品量產與轉換效率有信心,否則通常都會用比較謹慎的態度提供指引。 ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-27 12:47
According to the news, if Trump is indeed threatening a 25% iPhone tariff because Tim Cook didn't join his Middle East trip, it might actually be a good thing for Apple in the short term. Apple could potentially delay any discussion and implementation of iPhone tariffs by calming Trump's emotions and shifting his focus elsewhere.https://t.co/eLwFO9y2bZ ...
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)· 2025-05-27 12:47
如果這篇報導是真的,Trump要脅課徵25% iPhone關稅是因為Tim Cook沒跟隨他去中東,那對Apple短期內可能是好事,Apple或許可以透過安撫Trump情緒並轉移其注意力來拖延iPhone關稅的討論與實施。https://t.co/ERwJqaxd7i ...