CoWoP是近期AI伺服器產業的焦點，這是好技術並值得持續關注，但也不能忽略量產/商業化的高度不確定性與挑戰。網路上已經有很多關於技術優勢與製造挑戰的分析，我從另外兩個角度來分析:1. 首先是用Apple的例子來對比根據臻鼎的年報，可推論Apple至少從2013年就開始投入SLP研發，至2017年才開始量產並用於新款iPhone (X、8與8 Plus)。這四年內，Apple、材料商、製造商、與設備商合作，共同解決研發與量產問題，這不只是單一技術開發，而是整個產業生態升級。現在的PCB產業技術當然遠勝十年前，但Nvidia對技術與供應鏈的掌控能力不見得勝過10年前那時的Apple，且CoWoP要導入SLP的挑戰也遠勝iPhone案例 (粗略看，前者是後者約萬倍的系統功耗、一半以下的線寬線距、3倍以上的層數、百倍的面積)。在沒有具體的實際測試結果前，CoWoP要在2028年量產並用於Rubin Ultra是很樂觀的預期。2. CoWoP與CoPoS同時量產與商業化的挑戰艱鉅台積電有另一個次世代封裝技術CoPoS，也預計在2028後量產。CoWoP在理論上可以改善傳輸效率並簡化供應鏈，但CoPoS要解決的是很實際 ...

For Elon Musk and Tesla, this represents a valuable opportunity to gain real-world foundry experience at an exceptionally low cost — something TSMC would never allow. It enables Tesla to enhance its chip design capabilities, particularly in manufacturability, while also gaining deeper manufacturing knowledge, which will give them more leverage in future negotiations with foundries. In the long run, Elon Musk's businesses will only demand more advanced chips, so acquiring core manufacturing expertise becomes ...

對Elon Musk與Tesla，這是一個很好的機會，能用極低的成本實際參與晶圓代工業務 （台積電不可能允許這種要求)。這能提升晶片設計的能力 (特別在量產性方面)，且因更熟悉製造know-how也有未來利對晶圓廠的議價力。未來Elon Musk的旗下事業，只會使用更多更先進的晶片，長期來看，掌握更多晶片製造的核心技術是一種策略優勢。Tesla AI6晶片目前預計在2027量產，將採用Samsung的2奈米 (SF2) 先進製程。SF2目前的良率40-45%，低於台積電N2的70%以上與Intel 18A的50-55%。Elon Musk的執行力無庸置疑，且SF2因採用與SF3相同的GAA技術故有利量產，但即便如此，還是很難預測Samsung能否用SF2順利如期量產AI6。如果AI6生產不如預期，對Tesla最壞的狀況就是將訂單轉回台積電並承受AI6延期帶來的影響，但Tesla在真實世界AI的優勢應可顯著降低AI6延期的風險，且Elon Musk與Tesla仍可受惠於提升晶片設計能力與晶圓製造know-how。對Samsung來說，反正最壞就現在這樣，也不會更差，因此不仿一試。所以這樣的合作，對雙方來說都是風 ...

Investment & Capacity Expansion - Fine M-Tec announced an investment of approximately KRW 175 billion (approximately USD 13 million based on current exchange rates) to support the growing foldable device market and increased demand for ultra-precision laser processing capacity [1] - The investment period spans from July 17, 2025, to January 20, 2027 [1] Competitive Landscape & Market Dynamics - Apple's stricter crease-free requirements for the foldable iPhone are expected to accelerate the adoption of laser drilling for display metal plate production [1] - Samsung's new 2H26 Galaxy Z Fold 8 will also adopt higher-ASP laser-drilled display metal plates to better compete with the foldable iPhone [2] Supplier Relationships & Revenue Implications - Fine M-Tec will serve as the exclusive supplier for Samsung's Fold 8 (vs primary supplier for Fold 7), suggesting a significant increase in ASP and profit contribution from Samsung in 2026 [2] - Additional investments related to the foldable iPhone are expected from Fine M-Tec [3]

Investment and Production Expansion - Fine M-Tec plans to invest approximately ₩175 billion (approximately $130 million USD) from July 17, 2025, to January 20, 2027, to expand production capacity for precision laser technology due to the growing foldable phone market [1] - The investment is partly driven by anticipated demand from Samsung for Galaxy Z Fold 8, which is expected to use higher-priced, laser-drilled display metal plates to compete with the foldable iPhone [2] Competitive Landscape and Supplier Dynamics - The industry anticipates that foldable iPhones will utilize laser drilling technology for display metal plates to meet Apple's high standards for crease-free screens [1][2] - Fine M-Tec is expected to be the exclusive supplier of laser-drilled display metal plates for Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8, potentially increasing the company's ASP (Average Selling Price) and profits significantly in 2026 [2] - Fine M-Tec is also expected to benefit from the adoption of SDC (Samsung Display Corporation) display solutions for foldable iPhones [3] Future Outlook - Further investments from Fine M-Tec related to the foldable iPhone are expected in the future [3]

Industry Trend - Fine M-Tec is positioned as a leading beneficiary of Samsung Display Corporation's (SDC) crease-free display solution for foldable iPhones [1]

Industry Focus - Fine M-Tec is positioned as a leading beneficiary of SDC display solutions for foldable iPhones, specifically addressing the crease issue [1]

Production & Workforce - Foxconn's India iPhone facility had few Chinese employees [1] - Market rumors about Foxconn asking Chinese employees to return home from its India iPhone plant have negligible impact [1] Industry Dynamics - Reports explain why Foxconn relies on Taiwanese employees rather than Chinese employees for building iPhone factories in India [1]

Production & Workforce - Foxconn's reliance on Chinese employees in its India iPhone factory is minimal [1] - The production capacity of Foxconn's India iPhone factory is primarily established by Taiwanese employees, including those from FIH Mobile (富智康的民生廠), rather than Chinese employees [1] Market Impact - The impact of Foxconn requesting Chinese employees to return home from its India iPhone factory is negligible [1]

Production & Workforce - Market rumors regarding Foxconn asking Chinese employees to return home from its India iPhone plant have negligible impact [1] - There were already few Chinese employees at Foxconn's India iPhone facility [1] - Production capabilities at Foxconn's India iPhone facilities were established by Taiwanese employees, not Chinese employees [2] - The gradual return of Chinese employees had been planned for some time [3] Transparency & Communication - Apple was fully informed about the planned return of Chinese employees [3]