如我一年前所預測，M5晶片是新款Vision Pro最重要的硬體更新https://t.co/ywsA8MCWJp https://t.co/9iSCacafng郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo):AI空間運算為新款M5版本的Vision Pro最大賣點，Apple供應鏈新進者如兆威機電為關注焦點https://t.co/g57WzzEJjq ...

Supply Chain Dynamics - Foxconn is favored as a supplier for the foldable iPhone hinge [1] - Luxshare is identified as a potential supplier [1] - Supplier shifts are occurring [1] Financial Implications - Lower-than-expected ASP (Average Selling Price) favors Apple [1] - Reassessing the contribution to SZS (likely referring to a specific company or sector) [1] - Reassessing the contribution to Amphenol (a company in the interconnect systems industry) [1]

Industry Trend - The foldable iPhone's hinge component's unit price is significantly lower than expected, which is beneficial for Apple [1] - Changes in suppliers are beneficial for Foxconn (鴻海) [1] - Luxshare (立訊) is a potential supplier [1] Company Impact - The contribution of Shin Zu Shing (新日興) and Amphenol needs to be re-evaluated [1]

Market Position & Competition - Oracle accounted for roughly 12% of global GB200 NVL72 shipments in 2025, trailing Microsoft (~30%), Google (~16%), and Dell (~14%) [1] - Oracle's GB200 NVL72 deliveries arrived later, around late second quarter 2025, compared to initial small-batch shipments starting in first quarter 2025 [1] GPU Rental Business Analysis (June-August 2025) - Oracle generated approximately $900 million from Nvidia chip rentals, with a gross profit of $125 million [1] - Oracle experienced losses on rentals of small quantities of both newer and older Nvidia GPUs [1] - During June-August 2025, Oracle was in the early stages of receiving and deploying GB200 NVL72 systems, resulting in limited Blackwell compute capacity and a focus on prior-generation Hopper rentals [2] Profitability Factors - Early GB200 NVL72 deployments are unlikely to be profitable due to increased AI server costs, front-loaded infrastructure retrofit expenses, and limited initial compute/service scale [3] - Losses largely reflect the early-phase costs of the Hopper-to-Blackwell transition, particularly when considering "small quantities of both newer and older Nvidia chips" [5] Key Takeaways from The Information Report - The "small quantities" mentioned in the report are attributed to the recent arrival and preparation of Blackwell/GB200 NVL72 for service, limiting available compute capacity [4]

Business Overview - The report analyzes an article by The Information regarding Oracle's Nvidia GPU rental business, focusing on the period of June-August 2025 [1] - The analysis aims to clarify the logic behind the report, without commenting on the motives or Oracle's stock price [1] Financial Performance - In June-August 2025, Oracle generated approximately $900 million from Nvidia chip server rentals, with a gross profit of $125 million [1] - Oracle experienced losses in some cases when renting out small quantities of both newer and older Nvidia chips [1] Industry Dynamics - Oracle's procurement of GB200 NVL72 accounted for approximately 12% of global shipments in 2025, ranking lower than Microsoft (~30%), Google (~16%), and Dell (~14%) [2] - Oracle's GB200 NVL72 acquisition occurred later, around the end of 2Q25, compared to the small-scale shipments that began in 1Q25 [2] - During June-August 2025, Oracle was in the process of acquiring and deploying GB200 NVL72, primarily offering Hopper GPU compute power for rental services [2] Cost Analysis - Initial deployment of GB200 NVL72 was not profitable due to increased AI server costs, infrastructure upgrades, and limited scale of compute power/services [2] - Losses were attributed to the high initial costs of transitioning from Hopper to Blackwell, specifically when considering "small quantities of both newer and older versions of Nvidia chips" [3]

Supply Chain Analysis - OpenAI plans to deploy 1 GW of AMD MI450 systems in the second half of 2026 [1] - AMD's current CoWoS order plan, estimated at 60K-80K wafers in 2026 (80-90% for MI400 series), is sufficient to support the 1 GW build-out [2] - 1 GW MI450 deployment translates to roughly 50K CoWoS-L wafers [2] Beneficiaries and Suppliers - Suppliers tied to HBM and UALink are the main beneficiaries of OpenAI's AMD order [3] - Samsung is the primary supplier of HBM4 for the MI450 [3] - Strong order visibility should positively impact the stock prices of related suppliers like Astera Labs [3] Competitive Landscape - Rolling out 1 GW of MI450 systems is unlikely to be without challenges, based on Nvidia's experience [4] - Nvidia is actively increasing competition before AMD's rack-level servers start shipping in volume [4] - OpenAI's partnership with AMD should have a limited impact on Nvidia, provided the overall AI compute market continues to expand [4]

從供應鏈角度，快速看一下OpenAI預計要自2H26開始部署1 GW的AMD MI450這件事，以及對Nvidia的影響：1. 過去兩週AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單無顯著變化。2. 部署1 GW的AMD MI450約等於5萬片CoWoS-L。目前AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單推估6-8萬片 (約80-90%用於MI400系列)，故無論是樂觀或謹慎版本都可滿足佈建1 GW MI450需求。3. 受惠AMD的OpenAI訂單，初步看比較明顯的是HBM與UALink供應鏈。MI450 HBM4主要供應商是Samsung；完整的UALink規格雖要到2027年的MI500系列才能量產，但高訂單能見度會讓相關供應商股價先反應 (如Astera Labs)。4. 從Nvidia做機櫃等級伺服器的痛苦經驗看，部署1 GW的MI450過程應該也不會太輕鬆。Nvidia能做的就是在AMD的機櫃等級伺服器順利出貨前，盡可能把競爭格局提升到另一個層次，確保接下來的優勢，而很明顯的，Nvidia也早就在做了，只要AI算力市場整體是成長的，OpenAI與AMD合作這件事，對Nvidia影響應該有限。 ...

An Analysis of U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s Call for a “50–50” Semiconductor Commitment from TaiwanFull storyhttps://t.co/ad62vebh5C https://t.co/tTa1htrY4C ...

針對美國商務部長Lutnick對台灣呼籲半導體承諾「50–50」之評估與分析閱讀全文https://t.co/6GEalNUgML https://t.co/XzMBWdMZXk ...

If the goal is to boost U.S. semiconductor output, TSMC taking equity stakes or forming joint ventures is far less efficient than directly expanding its U.S. capacity. That should be obvious—and it’s why TSMC has had no equity- or JV-related discussions with any company to date and has repeatedly denied related market rumors.https://t.co/jVetrcuKbR ...